Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 8/7/26 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll kick off the weekend with a Friday afternoon card at Monmouth Park. Three of the six races are carded for the turf, including the third leg of the Malouf Auto Group Starter Handicap Series. Prior to last week, the turf course had been playing fairly evenly for the better part of the meet. However, closers seemed to have a very hard time making up ground last week. There was a decent amount of rain to fall earlier in the week, so that could help the overall condition of the turf. Post time for the first race is 2:00 PM (EDT).

Tomorrow is the $500 Whitney Day Monmouth/Saratoga Handicapping Contest. This is one of the tournaments at Monmouth where there is a 25% on site bonus, which should be great motivation to get yourself to the track if you’re in the general vicinity. More information can be found by clicking the link below. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/500-whitney-day-monmouth-saratoga-contest-3/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

This card starts off with a very nice maiden special weight race for fillies and mares, three and up going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Chad Brown holds a strong hand with his duo of Alibi (#1) and Blackfin (#3) here. While both horses have very nice pedigrees, Blackfin is the one that stands out. He’s sired by Kingman out of the mare Uni, who was the winner of the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Mile. She was an excellent turf miler, winning four Grade total Grade 1 races at that distance. This filly hasn’t shown that she’s anywhere near the caliber of horse that her mother was, but she has two respectable efforts with a sizable gap of time in between those two starts. She ran well while pressing a dawdling pace in her latest start in New York. She’s drawn a better post today after having two wide draws. She seems like the logical candidate to step forward in this race. Alibi is more of a backup for me in this spot. She’s making her first start since a 4th place finish in January on the Tapeta at Gulfstream. She was okay in her two starts on the turf to start her career in New York last fall. She has been working well over the main track here and I do like Edwin Gonzalez getting the assignment.  I’ll also use Olatz (#4) here on the B line. There’s not a lot of early pace signed on for this race and if the top pick isn’t going to take the initiative, I assume it will be her setting the tempo. She has a pair of third place finishes in her last two starts on this course, losing to horses that ran very well to win by open lengths. Horses that were forward on this course last week performed very well, so that could work in her favor. I will use her ahead of Alibi because if Blackfin were to defect, the pace scenario would be even more favorable for her. 

Race 2:

Six runners will go six furlongs in this $10K maiden claimer. Both Skyrush (#1) and Mighty Milo (#4) ran here two weeks ago in two different maiden claiming races. Both horses lost to professional maidens that had over 20 starts prior to breaking through in those races. That isn’t particularly encouraging for either horse, but both runners are still lightly raced and both runners probably are still eligible to move forward off that effort. I’ll give the slight edge to Mighty Milo, who is turning back in distance after trying a two turn race for his second career start. He just missed in his debut sprint against $25K-$20K maiden claimers, but came up short when routing last time out. He figures to move forward here after pairing his first two Beyer Figures. Skyrush was claimed for $10K last out where we got a little leg weary in the final ⅛ of a mile. He was making his first start since opening weekend, so he should be more fit in this spot while going for a barn that is very sharp first off the claim.

Race 3:

I think this time restricted $5K claiming race is a great spot for Admiral’s Wave (#2) to rebound. He faltered in a sprint race in the slop at this condition at Parx in his most recent try. While his form prior to that was not great, it was competitive. He’s done very well shipping to Monmouth in the past, winning three of six times on this oval. I think he’s going to get a nice set up as well here. Both Venezuelan Triumph (#1) and Fromanuthamutha (#4) are coming off big efforts where they went to the front. I think both riders are going to want a similar fate again today. While I don’t think there’s going to be a break neck pace duel with those two, I don’t fully trust either to wire this field. I’m looking for Mychal Sanchez to sit off those leaders and run by them late. While Venezuelan Triumph has been sharp in his last two starts, I feel better about Fromanuthamutha in the backup role. He was a winner with $4K N1Y claimers at Penn National in his latest effort. Since the tag was under $5K, he remains eligible for this spot here. Miguel Penaloza seems to have him trending up since claiming him a few months ago. There is back class there as well.

Race 4:

The third leg of the Malouf Auto Group starter Handicap Series is a nine furlong event on the turf. Two’s a Crowd (#3) won the first two legs of this series and he’s back while looking for his 4th consecutive win for Derek Ryan. The added distance should not be a problem since he just missed in a race like this at Tampa at this distance back in February. He can set or stalk the pace, but he has the right running style to succeed on this course when thinking about the way it has been playing. He gets the services of the hottest jockey in Edwin Gonzalez, who piloted him to win the second leg of this series at the end of June. Michael Simone has two runners that are intriguing in this spot. Ruse (#2) is likely to be the larger of the two prices. He closed a lot of ground to score in a one mile race here with open $12,500-$10,500 claimers on Haskell Day in his last go around. He has more tactical speed than he showed last time out and that should be display when going a longer distance today. Tampa Bay Downs runs a very similar starter handicap series over the winter with four legs that mirror the four the four legs in distance for the series here. Eldest Son (#4) was prominent in those races there, but he skipped the race at this distance. Two’s a Crowd was the better animal when they met in June, but I do think this one has a better shot as the distances get a little longer. He was entered in the Grade 2 United Nations on Haskell Day, but he was never a factor in that race. He’s a fierce competitor, but he’s had a lot more in the money finishes than wins lately. 

Race 5:

The $5 Late Double begins with a competitive optional $20K claiming/conditional allowance going six furlongs. This race seems to run through Guapo Again (#6), who is coming off a third place finish in the slop in an allowance race at the end of the Haskell card. The tack changed a lot throughout the day after various bouts of rain. Since April, he has five sharp efforts and two that were less than stellar. One of the dull efforts was at Charles Town in a two turn race when going 6 ½ furlongs. The other was his last race, so there are excuses. He’s finished in the money in 75% of his career starts, scoring in 8 of 28 of those races. Marble Hall (#2) broke his maiden on the turf in his last start when running a strong race in a $40K-$30K maiden claimer here. He has not had the same level of success on the dirt, but his effort in New York three back was good enough to make me think that he can compete at this level here. Tallmar (#7) is the morning line favorite despite making his first start since March. He has wins in both career sprint races at Tampa. He has been working well over this course in the morning, so I do think he’s ready to go. This will be a class test though as he faces older runners for the first time today. 

Race 6:

We’ll close out the card with a $16K-$14K N2X claiming race for fillies and mares going one mile over the turf course. There’s many familiar faces at this level, and many fillies and mares with minimal upside. In my opinion, the biggest threat in this field is the horse that is stuck on the AE list, Bossy Dish (#10). She’s based at Belmont, so there’s a reasonable chance that she’s not going to make the trip to New Jersey. However, she was competitive against better two starts back in her first trip to Monmouth. She was flat in her last start at the Big A though. She’s one of those horses that likely isn’t going to fit into a condition in a grass race at the Spa, so I get the drop in class, which feels needed at this point. The outside draw is not nearly as much of a setback at the mile distance as it can be when coming out of the chute in the 1 1/16 mile races. Ronda World (#3) has one good effort where she upset a maiden field at 33-1 sandwiched in between a pair of abysmal efforts. She had a wide draw in her last when facing foes at this level last time out when going 1 1/16 miles. She’s a speed horse that broke her maiden at this distance, and we’ve seen speed horses on this course struggle in races out of the chute while excelling in mile races (Justintimeforwine is one that stands out). She’ll be a price in this race and rightfully so, but I’d be willing to take a shot with her against this group. Only You (#7) has four consecutive starts when breaking from the seven post and if there are no defections, this will be her 5th time there. Again, she feels like another runner that is going to benefit from going to the one mile race as her last two have been out of the chute. She;s been close but has tired a bit in the late stages. She’s making her third start of this form cycle, so this feels like a spot where she could make some small gains. On deeper tickets, Madam Prosecutor (#8) is one that is worth a look when getting back on the turf. She ran well at this level at the beginning of April. There’s some other speed in this race, so I’m not sure how well she fits with this field, but there is ability here. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 63/239 (26.4%), $374.10 ($1.57 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet