Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Monday 9/7/26 – By Eric Solomon

There’s a special holiday Monday card at Monmouth this afternoon. The first of eight races this afternoon is set to go off at 12:50 PM (EDT). There are five of those races scheduled for the turf today. Only the feature race went off the turf yesterday, so hopefully all the races will go off as planned today. The weather has been great over the last three days so after some heavy rains earlier in the week, I’m hopeful the course will be in good shape today because the turf races are very good on this card. 

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start the day with a maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies going one mile over the turf course. This looks like a good spot for Tax Proposal (#3) to make her debut. Her dam foaled a Grade 1 winner on the turf that was a debut winner in a maiden race going one mile. She’s sired by Life Is Good, who has had a few horses run well over the turf course in route races, despite not having a winner just yet. Chad Brown has won 29% of his races here this meet and he’s been very dangerous with the runners that have been based here at Monmouth. Underneath, I’ll use Cat’s Meow (#5) who stretches out to two turns for the first time for Graham Motion. The pedigree is there to run long on the grass as she’s sired by anEnglish Channel horse out of a Kitten’s Joy mare. Her debut was not that encouraging, but I’ll lean into the pedigree in this instance. 

Race 2:

This maiden special weight contest feels like it runs through Crazy Diamond (#3), who is making his first start since catching a sloppy track at Oaklawn back in February. He had some fast races over the winter in the south and if he can run back to those efforts, he’s going to be tough to deal with in this spot. Since Lindsay Schultz doesn’t have great numbers with runners coming off the bench, I feel he’s well-spotted here. Just like in the first race, Chad Brown has a pair of runner s in this spot, and of his duo that will bne slated to make their first starts, I think there’s more upside with taking First Mover (#5). She’s a half to Juju’s Map, who was a Grade 1 winner at two in the Darley Alciabiades. That one went to be second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies race that fall. This barn has been sharp with debut runners at two turns during this meet. 

Race 3:

Seven are entered in the body of this $16K-$14K beaten claiming race for fillies and mares going about 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. Six of the eight runners in this field qualified under the N2L condition. Clean WInner (#2) has two wins, but both came on the dirt. Bella Bello Banker (#5) is also a two-time winner, but both of those races came at two turns. Most of the races on the grass that we’ve sen from Rockyta (#6), would be good enough to win this race. She was flat in her last start when facing starter allowance company at Penn National SHe was wide throughout on an evening where the outer lanes there weren’t very good. I’m looking for a rebound effort from her in this race.I’ll back up with Bella Bello Banker. While I think she is better at two turns, she is capable of scoring in a sprint race. She came undone after dueling on the front end in a race at this level taken off the turf two weeks ago. She is better on the grass and she doesn’t need to be on the lead to score.

Race 4:

Six fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs on the dirt in this open $10K-$9K claiming race. Winkiwinki (#3) can beat Securitylighting (#6) to the lead in this race if those are the tactics that Chantal Sutherland wants to employ. She struggled in her most recent start at Parx, but she was sharp in her previous two tries on this course. I can see her taking this field all the way in this spot, especially when considering that the favorite, Charlie’s Beauty (#1) is not nearly as effective at two turns. Securitylightning has been very sharp of late, but at this level, regression has to be considered. She’ll likely be favored when the gates open up, but there are questions. I’d prefer to use Rachel Caroline (#4), who had her first win in many starts last out. While she’s only 2-36 in her career, her last race was solid as she was involved throughout. Her figures suggest that she can replicate her last effort, 

Race 5:

Eleven fillies and mares are entered in this $16K-$14K maiden claiming race going five furlongs on the turf. Natures Fury (#8) ran well at this distance at Penn National earlier in the summer to just miss breaking her maiden. She was not as effective at two turns at Delaware and she finished 5th here in a 5 ½ furlong race where she was shuffled around at the break and then once again in the stretch. Toss her last effort when she didn’t fire in a race taken off the turf. She has had several chances, but I do think she could be right there with these with a better trip. Lady of Troy (#10) takes the big drop from maiden special weight races to this $16K-$14K maiden claiming level for Mike Dini. She opted out of a race at Colonial yesterday in favor of this spot. She is making her second start off a brief break and her figures are generally more consistent than most of the others in here. I do worry that she’s never really been close to winning a race yet though. Maxpower (#9) was a little bit better than the top pick when they met on 8/9. She was in a stalking position and was close but was never able to get to Munchkin (#2), who set the pace and ran an uncharacteristically fast race that day. Her consistency in turf sprint races makes her more palatable than some of the others here.

Race 6:

Six two year olds will dash six furlongs in this maiden special weight race. It will be interesting to see if Jorge Delgado runs Earth Song (#3) here or at Delaware on Wednesday. He’ll be the favorite in either race and he’s one of the more interesting babies on the grounds here. He’s a half to Further Ado, who was not a debut winner in a dirt sprint.  He didn’t really find his footing until he tried two turns at Keeneland last fall. However, the dam has produced a few precocious two year old debut winners and his sire Justify, is getting 18% winners with his runners debuting in dirt sprint races. He’s the pick if he’s here. If not, I’ll try Dry Martini Again (#5) for Kathleen O’Connell. The dam has produced a debut winner, who was also a multiple stakes winner at Charles Town. Uncle Chuck has sired 14% winners in sprints on debut, but that number drops to 6% when filtering out the synthetic races. Still I think this one could be a bit overlooked in this spot. I’ll also toss in Rich’s Best Deal (#2) for Kelly Breen. This son of Game Winner has been working well in the morning. The dam’s other two two runners needed several starts to break their maidens and Game Winner is not a great debut sire. However, the human connections are strong with this one in a small field. 

Race 7:

14 horses are entered in this state bred, optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race going a mile on the turf. At this distance all 14 runners can run when the rails are set at 0 feet like they are today. There are plenty of ways to go in this race, but I do think when you get huge fields at this distance and configuration, you want to back a horse that will be forwardly placed. I’m going to try a bomb and make The Pauly Factor (#3) the top pick on the stretch out today. He showed potential when running a pair of solid efforts in turf sprints in state bred company at the Meadowlands and in open company at Laurel last fall. He has not been great in his three starts this year, but his first race this season was taken off the turf. He faced a very good field with significantly better horses in open company two back. In his most recent start, he was roughed up at the break and never was a factor. He switches barns and tries two turns for the first time in a tough spot. However, I do think his best weapon is his early foot, and he really hasn’t been able to employ that this year. The Factor is a solid turf sire and his runners are winning 10% of the time when routing for the first time. The dam won at two turns on the dirt and was competitive in her two turn turf races so I do think this one can handle the added distance here. I’ll take a big number on potential in this race. St. Erling (#12) is another runner with high potential that will be trying two turns on turf for the first time. He ran well on the grass at Aqueduct in the fall of 2024 before going to the sidelines for close to two years. He’s been solid in his four starts this season including a strong win at this condition on the dirt three starts back. He was not as effective on the turf two back when sprinting here, but I think the pedigree supports him trying two turns .The dam has produced horses that have won races in all sorts of situations, including Sirenusa, who was a multiple stakes winner at one mile on the turf. Smuggler’s Gold (#5) is in for the tag and he’s the class of this field. He’s done his best work on the turf and the barn has been sharp at this meet, 4-1 is probably fair when looking at this field because I do worry about him getting stuck behind some horses here. However, his best effort likely wins this one. On deeper tickets, Higher Sense (#14) is a horse that has a miserable post and will likely be long odds. He has shown flashes of being a decent horse in the past and I think his game will translate to the turf. I think breaking from this post is a big ask at this moment, but this is a horse that could be worth tabbing for the Monmouth at the Meadowlands later this month. 

Race 8:

Labor Day Weekend racing will wrap up with a maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. This race feels like a potential showdown between Timeless Melody (#2) coming in from Saratoga for Phillip Antonacci and Blackfin (#7) for Chad Brown. There’s not a ton of early speed signed on for this race, which should allow Time for You (#5) to control the tempo. Blackfin has some tactical speed, so I don’t think it will be a comfortable lead for her though. Timeless Melody has a better post, but she hasn’t shown a wealth of early foot in her first two start. Both fillies have great pedigrees, with Blackfin being foaled by Uni, who was a Breeders’ Cup Mile winner. Timeless Melody is sired by Not This Time and her grand dam was the great Serena’s Song. The dam has a produced a runner that won twice at two turns on the turf.  I think both are live and if the price disparity widens between the two, I’d consider Timeless Melody, but I think Blackfin has the tactical edge here. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 86/319 (27.0%), $514.10 ($1.61 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet