Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 5/16/26 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll begin the second week of racing at Monmouth with an eight race Saturday card, highlighted by the Serena’s Song Stakes. Kelly Breen and Samuel Marin were the stars of the first weekend of racing as they each won six of the first 16 races of the meet. Ironically, Marin did not ride any of Breen’s winners. Paco Lopez was responsible for five of Breen’s six victories, however, he’ll be racing in Maryland this afternoon as he is scheduled to ride Napoleon Solo in the Preakness at Laurel later this afternoon.

One big piece of news that was dropped yesterday is that all Doubles and Pick-3 wagers at Monmouth will now be offered with a lowered, 15% takeout. The $3 base will stay in effect for the Late Pick-3 as will the $5 base wager in the Late Double. First post today at Monmouth is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1: 

The day starts off with a $10K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. Horseplayers are going to have to figure out how to handle Miss Tiramisu (#2) in this race. She ran well in both of her maiden races in New York to start her career. Those races came in state bred maiden special weight races in the winter of 2024 and she was well backed both times. She’s coming back about 17 months removed from her last start and she’s returning in a $10K maiden claimer. This is a pretty weak group though, so it’s hard to not include her on tickets. I’ll use her, but I’m going to make No Denying (#4) the top pick. She’s a Gormley first time starter for Juan Avila. This barn has been red hot in 2026 and they have several live runners on this card after winning with their first starter at the meet last week. I don’t think she’s going to have to be much to score here. 

Race 2:

Beaten $5K claimers will go 1 mile and 70 yards on the dirt here. Avila looks to lock in on the double with his winner from last week, Street Glide (#5). This barn likes to strike while the iron is hot as they’ve had some winners on the quick turnaround lately. He’s moving up in class, but I think the field in the $5K N1Y race last weekend was better than the group he’s facing here at the $5K N2Y level. He has plenty of tactical speed, so he figures to be in play early. The logical alternative is the class-dropping NYRA invader, Skylander (#6). While he’s clearly getting class relief after a pair of dull efforts off the Wayne Potts claim. I’m not sure I love him at two turns though. He does get the red hot Samuel Marin in the irons, so he might be bet down below his 9-5 morning line figure.

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this $7,500-$6,500 beaten claiming race. You gave a favorite in this race, Bee N Dee (#3), that is going two turns for the first time. Her lone win came in a one turn mile race at Gulfstream, so I do think the added distance could be welcome. However, I don’t love taking too short of a price on a horse that is trying something new for the first time. I prefer Sexpectations (#4) on top in this spot. She broke through with her maiden score at Tampa two starts back and she followed that up with a solid third place finish there when facing winners for the first time. Her ceiling isn’t that high, but she is trending up for this race. There is no pace signed on for this race and Kathleen’s Derby (#6) is coming off a gate to wire effort when facing $10K maiden claimers in her last start at Tampa. She did catch a sloppy course there and her fast track efforts aren’t as solid. However, lone speed does feel too important to just ignore here. 

Race 4:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming race going 1 mile and 70 yards on the main track. I think Beck’s Dreamer (#5) is the one to beat in this spot. He showed some potential last year, running a strong race at two turns on the dirt at Churchill in the fall. He was claimed out of that race and brought to New York where he went off form for a few races. His last effort was sharper though. He’s been gelded since that race and looks to be trending back in the right direction. He’ll get a bit of class relief by switching circuits here, since those maiden claiming races get a little tougher with NYRA switching over to the Belmont at the Big A meet. The backup for me will be Fratellone (#3), who is trying a route on the dirt for the first time. His pedigree suggests that is what he’s going to do best. His lone dirt start at one turn when facing better competition, was his best effort to date. I could see him moving forward in this race for Juan Avila. 

Race 5, The $100K Serena’s Song Stakes:

We received a little more clarity about the make up of this field on Friday when both Waveless (#4) and Ourdaydreaminggirl (#7) defected from the Allaire Dupont Distaff Stakes at Laurel yesterday, presumably in favor of this spot. Ourdaydreaminggirl is the pick for me in this race. She ran some big races last year, including a near miss in the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes at Parx in the fall. She ended her three year old season with a solid third place finish in the Grade 3 Comely Stakes at Aqueduct. Her first two starts this season weren’t great, but she showed a little more life at Keeneland when she finished 5th against a strong field in the Grade 3 Doubledogdare Stakes. She’s been facing better opposition than anyone else in this field and I think she’s trending in the right direction today. Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher are each represented with a runner in this race, and it;s worth mentioning how each trainer fared with their Monmouth runners in 2025. Brown won 20 times from 64 starters whereas Pletcher’s runners were only 1 for 25 here last season. Pletcher didn’t have much of a presence here last year, so it’s interesting to see how his promising filly Waveless performs here and how well she’s received by the betting public. She’s coming off a nice allowance score at Aqueduct when going nine furlongs, so I was a little surprised to see her opt for this spot instead of racing on the bigger stage in Maryland yesterday at that same distance. She seems to have the pace edge in this race, which does feel meaningful. She’s going to have to prove that she can perform without Lasix. I’ll be cautious with her, and I’d like a little better than her 5-2 morning line price, but I think she’s worth considering. Lost Horizon (#2) is the Brown runner who was last seen finishing third behind Scalable and Snowyte in the Top Flight Stakes at Aqueduct. There wasn’t much pace on in that spot and the scenario feels similar in this race as well. Brown trained the dam who was a South American Star before coming to the States, She won the Grade 1 Beldame and was a close second to Monomoy Girl in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in 2018. She’s another promising horse in this spot, but I think she’s going to be overbet. 

Race 6:

State bred fillies and mares will dash 5 ½ furlongs over the dirt course in this maiden special weight race. I wasn’t impressed by any of the 2025 efforts from six runners with experience in this race, so I’m going to lean heavily into firster, My Alena Marie (#7) here. Her two full siblings both ran here on debut and Dial Operator was an easy winner, who went on to win four starts here in sprint races. Miss Yum Yum just was a game second in her debut in 2019. Her two half siblings had similar outcomes as Heir Port scored on debut and Midnight Heiress just missed to finish second. All four runners inherited the speed from the Wildcat Heir, who was the dam sire. Mike Dini doesn’t have great numbers with debut runners, but he also trains a lot of turf routers that tend to need a few starts before we see their best. He’s capable of winning with a firster and I think the price could be solid on this one. The backup for me will be Luciana (#4). It’s not uncommon for some of the New Jersey based barns to run some two year olds in protected races while they might not be ready to show their best. That could have been the case with this Mission Impazible filly who was dull in her debut here. She had some trouble in her second start, but her overall effort on the turf wasn’t great either. She drilled a bullet work here last week, suggesting that she could be on the come up. I don’t love the 3-1 price, but Samuel Marin is making a lot of smart decisions on the racetrack right now. 

Race 7:

Three year olds will go six furlongs in this optional $75K claiming/N1X allowance contest. Music on the Run (#5) is the one to beat in this spot. He’ll face winners for the first time after a strong pair of maiden efforts at Tampa this spring. He nearly missed at first asking, but he got the job last time out while pairing his debut Beyer. He’s eligible to move forward in this spot while running for a barn that has been making all the right moves in 2026. The alternative in this spot for me would be Bonsai Warrior (#4). This Yaupon gelding ran well on this course to score in his career debut last summer. He went to the sidelines for a bit and came back with three races at this level at Laurel toward the end of last season. He ran well two back, but his other two tries there weren’t great. He was privately purchased and while they tried to get him to go at Aqueduct last month he was deemed unsound. They gave him a few weeks off and he came back with a pair of strong drills in the morning over this course. 

Race 8:

The lone turf race of the day is a 5 ½ furlong sprint for $40K-$30K maiden claimers. The rails for this race will be set at 24 feet. Last year, they ran 21 races at this distance in this course configuration. Only one of the 21 winners in those races came from further than five lengths from the leader at any point of call in order to win their race. That tells me that it’s hard to back any deeper closer with a lot of confidence in races like this. I think this is a good spot for Baltic (#6) to break his maiden. He got on the turf for the first time at Laurel last month and ran very well on the front end, only to get nailed on the wire in the late stages of that race. I like betting back horses that take a big step forward when getting the grass for the first time, and I think he qualifies. I think he’s going to be hard to run down in this race. Man With the Money (#8) is the morning line favorite in this race. He runs for the red hot Kelly Breen, so the betting public will certainly be paying attention. He has a wide post though and he’s going to need to get away in good order to put himself in a position to win this race. If he’s wide off the bend onto the main course, he may find himself too far back to make a serious run at the leader. While Luis Rivera Jr. is perfectly capable, I’d feel more confident backing him with Paco Lopez in the irons. Beach Beamer (#1) is worth a look in this race as he drops in for a tag for the first time today. His last start at Tampa was his first try in a turf sprint. He was game in that race, but didn’t have the punch to get to the favorites late. He fits better at this level and he should get a decent trip from his rail draw.

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 5/16 (31.3%), $23.90 ($1.49 ROI)

Data for Winners Last Start

A data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners have fared very well here over the last two seasons. There has also been a downward trend with New York shippers early in the meet here over the last few seasons, so that is something worth paying attention to as well in 2026.

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

2024-2025 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 19 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 17 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races in 2024 / 12 winners in 41 races in 2025

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races in 2024 / 0 winners in 4 races in 2025

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

36 Feet (2026)