Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 5/23/26 – By Eric Solomon

While Memorial Day Weekend officially starts the summer season at the Jersey Shore, Mother Nature seems to be leaning into weather that is more reminiscent of October or November this weekend. Rain and temperatures that will be struggling to get out of the 50’s seems to be the trend for Saturday and Sunday. While half of the races are carded for the grass, it’s hard to imagine that those races will stay on the lawn as scheduled. First post today is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

While it’s been a tough task at this meet, I’m going to try to beat Paco Lopez in the opener., Taprixie (#3) should be able to secure the early lead with relative ease in this $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming race for fillies and mares. Her last two starts at Tampa weren’t great, but she is capable of better. When this course is sealed, it can be hard for the back markers to make up significant ground, so as long as she enjoys the course, I think she’s going to be hard to run down. Gold Stamp (#6) will need to rebound to be a factor in this race, but her prior two efforts at Tampa suggest that he’s capable of doing just that. While breaking from the outside post, she should be the one that keeps the top pick honest and if that one falters at the top of the stretch, this filly should be the one that gets first run at her. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares are set to go 1 1/16 miles on the turf in this maiden special weight race. In the event this race stays on the grass, I think Olatz (#4) is an interesting face coming in from Keeneland for Lindsay Schultz. She missed over a year of racing after finishing third behind a runaway winner in her two year old debut at Aqueduct. She was sold for $50K in January and made her first start for Schultz 16 months after that first try. She ran well to be third on a good course at the Fair Grounds. She wound u;p on the lead in a tougher nine furlong race at Keeneland in her last start, and I’m not sure that was the kind of trip that suits her. I’m looking for an improved effort in this spot. I also think Mid Summer (#3) is worth using after a decent effort at Tampa in her last try. She ran into Parfois for Chad Brown, who was an absolutely loaded import for that barn. She had a pretty sweet trip, sitting about five lengths off a strong pace up front. She couldn’t keep pace with the winner, who showed a very strong turn of foot. I think she’s a candidate to move forward here as well. It’s interesting to see that Lindsay Schultz, Shug McGaughey, and Chad Brown, each of which trains a contender on the turf, also each entered a MTO runner. Brown’s Fusion (#8) is the most interesting of the bunch. She’s the first foal to make it to the track from the Grade 1 winning dam, Separationofpowers. Brown also trained that one, who was the winner of the Test Stakes in 2018. That mare was best suited for one turn races, but at this level, I don’t see an issue with this filly getting the distance.

Race 3:

A field of seven has been assembled for this beaten $12,500-$10,500 claiming race going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. I like Awol (#5) a lot in this spot, under the assumption that we’re working with a sealed and sloppy course. My thought is that Duck Duck Goose (#1) is a different horse when gets the lead. He’s a two time winner at two turns and homemade the lead when setting dawdling paces in both races. He’ll have to contend with Chaos Comin (#2), who has proven to make the lead in sprint races, so he looks more likely to set the pace. I’m not sure how Duck Duck Goose will respond to taking mud in the face if Paco Lopez decides to sit back. Conversely, I think the tempo would heat up if he tried to hold that rail position. I also think that both Christmas Spirit (#6) and Tall Cotton (#7) could press the issue from their outside draws. That should leave Awol sitting near the back of the pack. He has shown that he is comfortable coming from off the pace to run a strong race on an off track. While Duck Duck Goose was clearly the better animal two weeks ago, I think the conditions and the pace scenario in this race, assuming this field stays intact, could give this gelding a boost. 

Race 4:

Six runners, plus a MTO entrant make up this $16K-$14K maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. This race marks the debut of the All-Turf Pick-3, which is a $3 Base Wager covering the last three turf races of the day (Races, 4, 6, and 8 this afternoon). If there is a surface switch, pay attention to the track feed to see if they’ll still offer this wager today since this is new territory for Monmouth today. Lumber Legacy (#6) is a dual surface threat in this race, but he’d be my top pick on the turf. The added distance is a question mark, but there are clearly turf influences in his pedigree and his debut on the lawn in 2024 wasn’t terrible. I’m willing to forgive the Kentucky Downs debacle in start number two for him. His only try at two turns came on the dirt and that effort was another one that wasn’t awful. He’s second off the layoff and he’s sent out by a high percentage barn that has been very purposeful with where they;re spotting their runners at this meet. Restless Passion (#5) is the favorite in this race on the turf. Paco Lopez rode him at Tampa last month and got him to improve when he finished 6th, beaten a little more than three lengths at this level at Tampa. On the dirt, Fratellone (#7) ran too well to lose in his effort last week. While this is a step up on paper, I think this field will be softer than the crew he saw last week after some likely scratches if there is a surface switch. His two tries on the dirt are pretty much better than most of the dirt form on paper in this race 

Race 5:

The longest shot on the board in this $6,250 claiming race is Winkiwinki (#3) and the question I have about her revolves around whether or not her poor recent form is related to shipping to Parx or if it’s just that this seven year old mare isn’t that interested in competing any more. If the 2025 Monmouth version of this horse shows, she could win this race by a handful of lengths. She’s been sidelined for 3 ½ months, so whether or not we’ll see that horse now or at all at this meet, is still up in the air. However, her better days aren’t too far behind and I don’t hate the idea of hitting the reset button with the one. While there are plenty of holes in his game, I do think the pace scenario favors Thelastbulletsmine (#2) here. Paco Lopez riding is also a major factor right now as he already racked up 10 winners from just 23 starters at this meet. While this isn’t her best distance, I do think she has been fairly consistent for the better part of 2026 thus far. 

Race 6:

If this state bred maiden allowance race is taken off the turf, I’m not going to try to beat Garden Gal (#9). She’s a player on either surface in this race, and I like her prospects in a race where she’ll be getting back to going two turns. She ran a solid race in her debut at this level before struggling in her next two starts at the end of the 2025 meet. She faced open maidens at the beginning of August and then she faced a tough field of males in state bred company at the end of August. Her last two starts came on the dirt, including a troubled trip 4th last weekend when sprinting in her first start of the year. She’s a definite contender getting on the grass, but I think she becomes a standout on the dirt. The pick on the grass for me is Omahamoiselle (#4). She gets Lasix for the first time in her first start of the year. Her lone start at two turns came against Virginia Restricted maidens at Colonial and that was by far her best effort. I’m expecting a solid effort from her while coming off the bench. Aria D (#5) is another one to consider on the grass. She was well backed in her second career start, which came on the turf at the Meadowlands. She led every step of the way until she was nailed on the wire. She might need a start or two before we see her best, but I do think she showed that she’s a better filly on the lawn.

Race 7:

This $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming seemingly runs through Canuto (#2), who will be a heavy favorite in this spot. This is a deep drop in class, so that does present a bit of a concern, however, every dirt race that this colt has run since coming to Jorge Delgado’s barn would be good enough to beat this group with relative ease. Delgado does nothing but win races here, and we have seen him win several times with deeper class droppers like this over the last few seasons here. The alternative for me would be Zhu Daddy (#7). He’s been on a steady diet of turf route races lately, while trying to navigate the N3L level there. He was forced to run at that level because after breaking his maiden in a $10K maiden claimer last summer at this six furlong trip, he was awarded first place from a runner up finish at the same $10K maiden claiming level earlier in the meet. As a result, he hasn’t had the luxury of trying to beat N2L winners for the first time. I do like the surface switch, coupled with the cutback in distance for him, but I also acknowledge that Canuto will need to be a shell of himself in this spot for Zhu Daddy to beat him. 

Race 8:

The day ends with the featured N1X allowance race going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. Regardless of what happens with the surface in this race, Paco Lopez figures to have a mount that looks very tough. Pivotal Moment (#8) is cross-entered in a turf sprint at Aqueduct this afternoon, but he’s stuck on the AE list in that spot. With the projected weather in the region tomorrow, it all may be for naught anyway. Obviously, this is a nice horse that could be stakes bound in the near future. Aqueduct drew their card first, so the fact that they’re willing to consider shipping him to the shore for a lesser purse tells me that this horse is ready to run and they need a spot for him to go. If he does stay back in New York, I’d give a look to Maximatch (#5) for Terri Pompay. He was sharp when sprinting at this distance last year, but surprisingly, he has sprinted on the turf since October. It could be a function of the five furlong races being too short for him. He wintered at Tampa, so the only option for sprinting on the grass there is a five furlong race. That could offer an explanation for his several starts at the mile trip there. He has handled softer ground on the turf well in the past. I don’t think he’s in the same league as the favorite, but he’s very intriguing on the turf if that one would defect. On dirt, I think Thunder Chuck (#9) is a standout here. He’s one of three MTO runners in this spot. He was a winner here at two in the mud, so shorter races on this course suit him well. They tried him at two turns on the dirt against better competition in Florida, but that wasn’t really his cup of tea. He finished well behind two very nice horses in his last start, Cannoneer and Lincoln’s Law when going a one turn mile at this N1X level at Gulfstream .The third place finisher, who was another zip code behind the top two, came back to win at this level on this course here last week. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 9/32 (28.1%), $51.70 ($1.62 ROI)

Data for Winners Last Start

A data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners have fared very well here over the last two seasons. There has also been a downward trend with New York shippers early in the meet here over the last few seasons, so that is something worth paying attention to as well in 2026.

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

2024-2025 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 19 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 17 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races in 2024 / 12 winners in 41 races in 2025

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races in 2024 / 0 winners in 4 races in 2025

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet