Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 5/30/26 – By Eric Solomon

It looks like the weather is going to cooperate this weekend, which is good news because 5 of the 8 races on the Saturday Program at Monmouth are carded for the turf. Three of those races are $100K stakes races. With NYRA being dark this weekend, Manny Franco, Javier Castellano, Dylan Davis, Jose Lezcano, and Kendrick Carmouche are all named to ride horses this afternoon. They won’t have to contend with the leading rider, Paco Lopez, who will be in Louisville this afternoon. First post today is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

Keep in mind that Monmouth is offering a $400 feeder contest to the Pick Your Prize Handicapping Contest here in two weeks. There’s also two NHC seats up for grabs this afternoon as well. Information for this contest is linked below.

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/400-nhc-pyp-qualifier/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a maiden special weight for fillies and mares going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course. While Paris Carver (#1) figures to be very tough to beat, I think Italy (#4) has a live look in the opener. She debuted here three weeks ago on a sealed course that was labeled fast, but definitely was wet. She showed some early zip before fading to third in that six furling dirt sprint. She’s sired by Caravaggio, who gets 20% winners with his first time turf sprinters. The dam also foaled a graded stakes winning sprinter on the dirt (Pretty N Cool), so there is some ability in the pedigree. She worked well over the Tapeta course at Fair Hill last week for Michael Stidham. Paris Carver makes a lot of sense in this spot. She debuted overseas at the Curragh last year and was a close up 4th. She tried the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and was not a factor. Amo Racing USA sent her to Jorge Delgado for her three year old campaign. She made her first start for him in a five furlong dash in March on the Tapeta course there. She ran well to narrowly miss when finishing third. The added distance and the return to the grass should be favorable for her. The price on the other hand might be lower than I’d like to accept. 

Race 2:

Beaten $5K claimers will go 1 1/16 miles on the main track in this spot. Max’s Glory (#5) is the play for me, making his second start off the layoff. He had some nice efforts here last summer, beating beaten $16K-$14K claimers back in July. He went off form at the end of his five year old season, struggling at Parx and Penn National. He came back against a better field at this level on Opening Day when the course was wet and sealed. He should get his preferred fast course today when he should be more fit after getting that first start of the year under his belt. Brave Bear (#2) might wind up on the lead by default in this race which feels devoid of any race early speed. He was in career best form last fall, and if he’s able to replicate those efforts, he’ll win this race by double digit lengths. The reality is that if he’s entered at this level, recapturing that form may not be on the table anymore. However, he has a serious pace edge in a race where he won’t need to be his old self to win. On deeper tickets, Knox (#1) is a bit of a backup for me. His figures are the most consistent, but he has a habit of leaving himself too much work to do. Going to two turns while drawing the rail might help him keep in contact with the field in the early stages of this one. 

Race 3, The $100K Miss Liberty Stakes:

The first of three turf stakes races on the card starts with this 1 1/16 mile test for fillies and mares. I really like Daisy Flyer (#4) in this race. She was very good last summer when upsetting the apple cart in the Grade 3 Lake George Stakes at Saratoga. She had a rough trip in her next start in the Duelling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs. She ran well in the Grade 1 QEII Cup at Keeneland, but she wasn’t good enough to finish in the money with that deep group. She made her first start as a four year old last month at Keeneland where she faced a very salty N2X allowance group. Her trip was not great in a race she likely needed. While she’s moving into stakes company here, I’m not sure this smaller field is any better than the group she saw in Kentucky in her last start. She’s better on a firm course and her only start with Jose Lezcano riding was her Grade 3 score. I think she can pull off the mild upset. Ozara (#2) is the morning line favorite and the logical alternative to the top pick this spot. She needed her first start off the bench last year when she was a little keen early on at Tampa. She didn’t have her best closing kick in that race, but she still grinded her way to victory as a heavy favorite. She might be good enough to beat these with a race where she’s at less than 100% (in terms of fitness), however, I think the top pick could really make her work. This race is designed to set her up for another productive summer at the Spa, and based on her effort in the Ballston Spa last season, I think they’d be trying to get her fully tuned up for a race like the Diana this year. 

Race 4:

I thought the debut effort from Seeking Serenity (#7) was pretty sharp at Tampa last month. She faced $25K-$20K maiden claimers in a 6 ½ furlong contest that day. She takes a slight bump up to the $40K-$30K maiden claiming level here, but I don’t think the competition level here is that much deeper. I like the outside draw for her in her second career try. Luciana (#5) feels like a horse worth using on some of your tickets. She made her first start of the year two weeks ago in a state bred maiden special weight contest. She ran well off the bench to be second at 7-1 that afternoon. She comes back in a race where, as a New Jersey bred, she’s able to run with a waiver and thus not risk being claimed. She’ll need to take another step forward to score here, but I do think that’s a possibility as McBurney’s horses tend to improve with more racing experience. 

Race 5:

I landed on Clay Soldier (#8) in this conditioned allowance race for fillies and mares going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. She had some sharp efforts in turf sprint races at Woodbine last season, scoring in open claiming company there in September. She struggled in her last start at Gulfstream three weeks ago. However, I think the field she saw that afternoon was better than the group she’s up against here. I think she has enough tactical speed to stalk the pace from an outside draw. I think she might get first run on some of the backmarkers here. Carolyncaroline (#6) gets back on the turf this afternoon after a game second place finish in the Astral Spa Overnight Stakes at Oaklawn last month. Her connections intended to debut her at this distance on the turf at Ellis, but that race was switched over to the main track. She didn’t seem to mind as she scored in that spot at first asking. She finished off the board in her only two turf tries, but it’s fair to point out that both of those races were stakes. I don’t love her as the favorite in this race, but I do think she’s worth considering. Chitchatchitchat (#9) was an impressive winner at this distance at Laurel in her last start. She is moving up in class, coming out of a $30K-$24K N2L claiming race there. She does have two wins in as many starts on the turf, so I believe that sprinting on the lawn is what she is going to do best. THere were eight races here last year at this distance when the rails were all the way at 0, and none of them were won by horses that closed from five lengths off the pace or more, so getting up in time might be a big ask. However, I do think she is definitely worth including underneath. 

Race 6:

The gate for this state bred $100K N2L claiming race is scheduled to be bookended by a pair of half-siblings, both of which have a shot in this race. Both Holiday Express (#1) and Superfractor (#10) are owned by Jersey Shore Racing Stable and trained by Ben Perkins Jr. At 20-1 on the morning line, I’m definitely considering Holiday Express here. He has been well-beaten in three starts, but I can make excuses for those efforts. He beat a strong group when trying two turns at Laurel three starts ago. He likely needed his first race off the layoff two back when facing another salty allowance group in Maryland. He came here and didn’t love the wet course when he was well-beaten by Cairo Surprise. I think this is a spot for him to turn things around. Five of the ten runners are coming out of that race, and while Happy Offering (#2) was a clear second place that day, I wonder if the condition of the track helped his cause. I also suspect that this one could be in line for a bounce here. Instead, I’ll use Sir Newtons Laws (#6) from that race. He likely needed that race and I think he’s been better at longer distances. While the six furlong trip might be a touch short for him, I think he’s going to move forward off that effort. Superfractor is the other one that I’ll have on my tickets. He started twice last summer as a two year old. The debut wasn’t very good, but his second start was a night and day difference. He might need this race before we see his best, but he’s another one worth using in this fairly wide open state bred event.

Race 7, The $100K Cliff Hanger Stakes:

There are two horses that I’m going to focus on in this one mile turf stakes race for older runners. The logical player is the European import for Chad Brown, Cosmic Year (#7). This one had a respectable three year old campaign overseas, finishing second in the Group 1 Irish Guineas and third in a Group 2 stakes at the end of his season. Juddmonte sent him to the states where he’ll run for Chad Brown. This one seems like a horse that will thrive at the mile distance in the states as his efforts over firmer going were definitely his better tries. This does feel like a modest way to start the North American chapter of his career, but the New York option for him this month is the Grade 1 Manhattan at 1 3/16 miles. Running here gives him a nice path to the Grade 1 Fourstardave via the Kelso Stakes at the beginning of July, assuming he is good enough. He’s definitely the class of the field, but I do wonder if he’s going to be fully cranked for this race. He’ll be a heavy favorite, especially considering the success Brown has had here over the last two seasons. He’ll be on my tickets, but I’m going to make Neat (#4) the top pick in this race. He’s a talented five year old gelding that was a multiple graded stakes winner at three. He has failed to find the Winner’s Circle since his Grade 2 win at Saratoga in August 2024, but there have been solid efforts in some tough spots during that time span. I’m willing to forgive his last effort in the Henry Clark where his race was foiled at the break. He’s been able to rebound from rough outings in the past and I do like his fit here.  I think Brown’s horse will be even money or lower, which likely puts him in the 5-1 neighborhood here. With that kind of odds disparity, I’d be willing to take the risk with him. 

Race 8, The $100K Jersey Derby:

Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles on the turf in the nightcap. All eyes will be on King’s Remark (#3) after a strong debut at Aqueduct last month. He was away last and Jorge Ruiz opted to wait patiently at the back of the pack despite a moderate pace being set in front of him. He closed well to pass everyone and win going away over a course labeled good. This course should be more firm today here and he’s facing some experienced and stakes tested rivals in this spot. I don’t love him as the favorite, but he’s also hard to ignore after such a strong effort on debut. He’s going to be on my tickets, but I’m going to try to get some value by using a few runners that had less than ideal trips in their last starts. Zephyros (#4) had between three to four separate incidents of trouble when making his stakes debut in the English Channel Stakes at Gulfstream earlier this month. He was squeezed hard at the break and relegated to last, which was a new experience for a horse that likes to be closer to the front end. He had to tap on the brakes while he was a little eager at two points in the first half of the race. He looked to be making a nice move on the far turn, but he had to wait again. He still managed to produce a solid rally to get into third, despite those issues. Seeing a younger horse turn in that kind of effort, tells me that there could be more in the tank. I think he can work out a nice trip, while staying closer to the front end in this race. I think he’s a win candidate here. Third Coast (#8) is a beautifully bred son of Uncle Mo, making his third career start in this race. His dam was the multiple Grade 1 winning mare, Marketing Mix, who was also campaigned by Tom Proctor and Glen Hill Farm. He did everything right to win at first asking at Tampa in February. He took some money in his first try against winners at Keeneland. He finished 5th that day, but his trip wasn’t ideal. He landed in a comfortable stalking position while pressing a moderate pace. Some back markers launched early, while making wide bids which forced the hand of Samuel Marin to start asking for his best sooner in the race than I think he wanted to. He was blocked at the top of the stretch and seemed a little reluctant to split horses, which landed him in 5th. That effort was a good educational race where his figures moved up from his debut. He moves up in class again, but Proctor’s runners tend to improve with more seasoning. I like the outside draw for him and Lezcano is an excellent rider on the turf. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 15/55 (27.2%), $80.70 ($1.48 ROI)

Data for Winners Last Start

A data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners have fared very well here over the last two seasons. There has also been a downward trend with New York shippers early in the meet here over the last few seasons, so that is something worth paying attention to as well in 2026.

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

2024-2025 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 19 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 17 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races in 2024 / 12 winners in 41 races in 2025

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races in 2024 / 0 winners in 4 races in 2025

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS, in 2025, 5/31 – 16% were closers)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet