Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 6/13/26 – By Eric Solomon

Haskell Preview Day is also Pick Your Prize Day at Monmouth this year. This is easily the best card of the meet thus far this season. Four of the ten races today are stakes races and the winners of each race get a fees paid entry in one of the major races on Haskell Day next month. Half of the races this afternoon are scheduled to be contested over the turf course where the rails will be all the way in at 0 feet for the second time at this meet. Samuel Marin is named on horses for the first time in a month and both Flavien Prat and Tyler Gaffalione are scheduled to be in town to ride today.  First post this afternoon is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day begins with a $12,500-$10,500 claiming race for older runners going one mile on the turf. The mile races at Monmouth on the grass are a straightaway start, as opposed to the 1 ⅙ mile races which start in the chute, before turning onto the course proper. This feels like a jockeys’ race and it’s hard to go against Fidelightcayut (#3) and Paco Lopez. Juan Avila is winning almost half of the time when he teams up with Lopez and this one feels a little bit faster than the other eight rivals. He has good tactical speed, so I trust Lopez will have him in the proper spot. I think he starts off the card as the popular winner. A longer priced option in this race could be Bar Fourteen (#9), who is trying to get back to his old self after going off in a series of dirt races over the winter. While the figure was a little light, he came back with a solid effort to finish third in a starter allowance on the grass at Laurel in his last try. That was his first turf start since November after having a strong fall when running on the grass at Laurel and the Meadowlands. This eight year old gelding conceded a decent amount of ground after starting from an outside draw last time out. We’ll see how aggressive Jose Gomez is in the early stages of this one, but I do think the move is to try to get him to the lead if he can break sharply. 

Race 2:

The first dirt contest of the afternoon is an optional $40K claiming/N2X allowance race going six furlongs. On paper it looks like the early pace battle could be salty since Gianluca Be Lucky (#5) and What’s Up Bro (#7) both are “need the lead” types. I don’t hate either of those runners, but I feel that if they’re both in the starting gate, they are going to make life difficult for each other. It also doesn’t help their cause that there are some talented racehorses that are going to be lying in wait behind the pacesetters. While both Twelve Treasures (#3) and Khozeiress (#6) figure to be major players in this race, I like Doroteo (#2) and Tyler Gaffalione as the top pick. He scored on Opening Day here, clearing the N1X condition that afternoon. He showed some earlier in his career, but he went off form for a bit. He started to piece things together over the winter at Tampa, and his last race looked like he might be all the way back. I think he’s more comfortable at this distance than anyone else in this race. Twelve Treasures has been really good in longer one turn races and the fact that the pace should be likely in front should help his cause. Paco Lopez taking the mount for a high percentage barn gives me more confidence that he’ll handle the shorter distance. Khozeiress hasn’t won a race since scoring here almost two full years ago when going two turns in allowance company., He;s in for the tag this afternoon and he’s another one that should benefit from the likely pace scenario. 

Race 3:

Seven fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race. She’s a Gamer (#4) was a beaten 3-10 favorite at this level last month. There was some definite CAW money on her as there is no way she should have gone off at such short odds, however I would have liked to have seen her battle back here in her defeat that afternoon. She is versatile enough that she doesn’t need to make the lead, however, she’s been on a decent run with some front-running performances. Ultimately, if she couldn’t withstand the challenge of Tickin Time Blonde that day, I don’t see her being able to get by Kadena (#1) in this race, assuming that all things are equal. Kadena struggled in her last start at Belmont at the Big A, but she ran when conditions were deteriorating and that was the first race of the day after the track was sealed. The rail might not have been the best place to be at that point in the day, but she was pot committed after winning the break. She’s drawn the rail again, which puts She’s a Gamer to her outside. However, I just think that she’s the better horse. Tavin (#3) might be worth a look if the price is right. She’s a mare that was sharper here last season than what she has been showing recently at Parx. She turned in some game efforts against solid fields on this oval last summer.

Race 4, The Grade 3 Eatontown Stakes:

The first four four stakes races and two graded stakes on the program is this 1 1/16 mile test for fillies and mares on the turf. Eight runners are entered, but there’s definitely some filler as the two local horses trained by Joann Bertone stick out like a sore thumb, and not in a good way. Gimme a Nother (#1) is the pick for me in this spot. She’s making her first start of the year after ending her 2025 campaign with a win in the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes at Del Mar. While she might want to go a touch farther than this, she was a very good miler in South Africa where she won a Group 1 race at that distance. I don’t trust any of the runners that are likely going for the lead, so I think she can get a cozy trip just off the pace. Grayosh (#6) is one of two Chad Brown runners entered in this spot, but I like her chances better than her stablemate, Whiskey Decision (#7). Until scoring in her last start at the end April, this mare was winless since her score in the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes at the Spa in 2024. She ran well too well to lose when she lost a heartbreaking photo in the Grade 3 Matchmaker Stakes on Haskell Day last summer. I think her last win could be a confidence booster for her as I expect her to move forward in this race today. Whiskey Decision was the winner of this race last summer when she was making her first start for Brown. Prat rode her to victory in the Athenia Stakes later that year and he’s back in the saddle this afternoon. She’s more of a backup in this race, as I do think the pacer scenario could be kinder to the top two runners.

Race 5, The $125K NYRA Bets Pegasus Stakes:

A field of six three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles over the main track, with the winner earning a spot in the starting gate for the Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes next month. The logical horse in Schoolyardsuperman (#4) for Chad Brown. His career started in a race where he clipped heels with a rival and fell. Fortunately he was no worse for wear and was able to return a month later. He broke his maiden with an open length victory at Aqueduct in December. He faltered in the Withers but was able to regroup and put up a big figure when losing by a length to his next out stakes winning stablemate in first level allowance company in New York at the end of March. Not counting his debut, his three one turn efforts were very sharp. His lone clunker of a race came in his only career start in a two turn race. Talk to Me Jimmy was big that day, but his effort was not encouraging. He was treated with Lasix for his last start where he ran a career top figure, but he’ll have to be off of it today. There’s also a decent amount of early speed drawn inside of him with both National Charter (#1) and Tricky Business (#2) stretching out to two turns after impressive one turn mile scores in maiden company. I’m not sure this is the best spot for him. I’m going to use both National Charter and Baby Vino (#6) on the A line in this race and I’ll make Baby Vino the top pick. He started to put things together over the winter and sprint at Oaklawn, finally breaking through to score in maiden special weight company. He’s a Vino Rosso horse, and we’ve seen his runners continually improve with more racing experience. I think when the real running begins, that two turn form from Oaklawn is going to kick in. Having Paco Lopez aboard certainly won’t hurt his chances either. National Charter faced a strong group of open maidens in Kentucky when he scored rather impressively late month when making his second career start. He looks like a horse that should have no issues getting two turns. Drawing the rail also gives him the fast path to the lead, if that’s what Gaffalione wants to do. 

Race 6, The $125K Monmouth Stakes:

I really wanted to try to find an alternative to Program Trading (#4) in this nine furlong stakes contest on the turf. This former Grade 1 winner is 0-6 after coming back from a lengthy layoff last summer. After strong efforts in the Bernard Baruch at Saratoga and the Turf Mile at Keeneland, he seemed poised to get back to his best form in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, however, that was not the case. He’s been competitive, but has come up short against much better fields. He’s getting serious class relief for this race today and the reality for me is that I don’t think an “A” effort from the other seven runners in this race can beat his “B” effort. The backup is his stablemate, Nebras (#8), who is a European import getting back on the turf. His synthetic numbers over the winter at Lingfield would be competitive here if he can replicate that kind of effort in his stateside debut. The fact that he has been based at Saratoga suggests to me that Brown might like his prospects despite the fact that he wasn’t facing the toughest fields in Europe. 

Race 7:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a state bred, optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race for older runners going a mile and 70 yards. I was against Happy Offering (#10) a few weeks ago when he went off as the 9-10 favorite in a $100K N2L claiming race here two weeks ago. He moves back to the first level allowance level and draws poorly for a two turn dirt race. He’ll get a rider upgrade to Paco Lopez, but that should keep his odds lower than they should be for this race. He’s a horse I want to take a stand against. Clever Charlie (#2) caught a sloppy course when making his two turn debut three weeks ago. That effort was his second start off the layoff and he took a sizable step forward that day. He likely needs to move forward again to win at this level, but he’s a three year old that is likely still developing. Kelly Breen has been red hot in the first month of racing here and he’ll send him out today. Michael Pino takes over as the trainer of record for Kaz Sweet Heist (#1). He hasn’t routed in some time, but in the past, he has proven that he can handle the trip. Michael Pino does very well with stretching out his runners from sprints to routes and also having horses ready to roll off the layoff. At longer odds in this race, I think he’s also worth a look. On deeper tickets, Last Romance (#6) is probably worth including as well. He was sharp here last summer, but he failed to maintain that form after the meet here concluded. His best efforts have come here, so if he still has some juice in the tank, I would think this is the kind of spot we’d see it. 

Race 8:

Fillies and mares will go one mile in this $40K-$30K maiden claiming race on the turf. The heavy favorite in this race is Enjoying (#5) for Graham Motion and Paco Lopez. While she certainly fits on figures, her running lines are nothing special. She also does not have a wealth of tactical speed, which can be a dangerous weapon on this course. She’s a deeper saver for me. I like Omahamoiselle (#3) in this race, as she makes her first start since November this afternoon. Two of her four career starts last year came on the grass and the turf efforts were clearly better than the dirt ones. Her lone start at two turns came at Colonial last September and that race was better than it looks on paper. Ben Perkins Jr. has a pair of winners from six starters thus far at this meet. This filly will get blinkers and Lasix for the first time today. I think she’s the most interesting longshot on the card today. La Pluma (#6) is another longer priced option that is worth considering in this race. She ran okay over a tiring course at Delaware in the fall. She went to the sidelines after that effort and then resurfaced in a race that was taken off the turf here a few weeks ago. That effort wasn’t terrible, so I do believe that her best efforts are going to be in two turn races. 

Race 9, The Grade 3 Salvator Mile:

The best race of the day is the one mile contest for older runners on the dirt. While the favorite, Bishops Bay (#6) is back to defend his title, I do think Grande (#2) is going to have something to say about that. Todd Pletcher has not been frequenting Monmouth nearly as much over the last two seasons as he used to and the horses that he ran here last year generally struggled, and he was only 1-24 with his Monmouth string in 2025. This looks to be a spot to try to get Grande right again. The runner-up in the 2025 Wood Memorial returned to the races back in February at Gulfstream. He ran two strong races there, including a win in the Grade 3 Ghostzapper Stakes at 1 1/16 miles there. He struggled against better competition in the Alysheba Stakes though. His 6th place finish on Oaks Day was forgettable at best, so that race is definitely hanging over him. I’m not sure what the end game is for him this year, but a race like the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile could be an end of the season target for him. I like the inside draw, which I think forces Bishops Bay to pressure him. Bishops Bay is the class and he’ll be a short price after making easy work of the field in this race last year. He went on to win the Cigar Mile at the end of the season, but his first two starts this year have not been his best. He went out to Saudi Arabia and could do no better than 4th in the Saudi Cup. He came back and ran in the Westchester Stakes last month where he was soundly beaten by Antiquarian.  Perhaps that last effort was a bit of a bounce after coming back from the Middle East, and if that’s the case, I would expect a better effort from him this afternoon. However, it’s also plausible to wonder if this six year old has lost a step. Offaly Cool (#8) is cross-entered on Tuesday at Parx, but if he does show up here, I do think he might get a sweet set up. There’s not a lot of runners with elite late pace numbers. He might need this start, since he’s gone unraced since August. However, if closers are getting home, he could be the one that gets rolling late at a price. 

Race 10:

We’ll close things out with a nice N1X allowance race going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. This feels like a very good spot for Golden Channel (#5) to rebound from a wide trip in New York last month. He was progressing nicely coming into that race, but it just simply wasn’t his day. Samuel Marin steps into the irons for his third start off the layoff in his four year old season. I think he has another gear and is strictly the one to beat in the nightcap. Late Call (#6) has a habit of leaving himself too much work to do in the later stages of a race. That typically makes him a more attractive candidate for the underneath slots in the vertical wagers. However, his best effort can win this race. Chad Brown has a pair of runners for Klaravich Stables and they’ve both drawn wide. I’ll give my preference to Relative Value (#8), who was less than pleased to go 12 furlongs at Keeneland. His two efforts at this distance in Florida were sharper tries though. Tyler Gaffalione finds himself on several live runners, so we’ll see what kind of day he has here this afternoon at the Jersey Shore. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 22/87 (25.3%), $133.90 ($1.54 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet