Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 8/15/26 – By Eric Solomon

There’s another eight race card this afternoon at Monmouth, highlighted by a competitive running of the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes. We’ll also get a look at two year olds on the turf in a pair of maiden allowance races. First post this afternoon is set for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll get our first look at two year olds going two turns on the turf in this one mile maiden special weight race. The rails will be set at 24 feet for all of the turf races this afternoon. I think it’s going to be hard to beat the favorite, Loyal Prince (#7) in this spot. He’s a half to Thundering, who finished third in the Grade 2 United Nations Stakes here last month. Cairo Prince is getting 15% winners with his runners going long on the turf for the first time. He was sharp in his debut race going 5 ½ furlongs at Colonial Downs where he just missed over a yielding course. He’s been based here and should appreciate the added distance today. The backup for me in John Servis’ Street Sense colt, Captain Cody (#6). He’s been working well for his debut over at Parx. There is definitely turf influence in the dam side of his pedigree. Street Sense was better on dirt, but he was good on synthetic as well. His runners are winning 10% of their races when routing on the grass for the first time.

Race 2:

Six fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this beaten $5K claiming race. Peggysue I Love U (#4) clearly wanted nothing to do with the grass when she tried the turf for the first time in her last start. She was much sharper when she was a distant third to the speedy mare, Unsolved Mystery in a starter allowance race. She drops in class and has never run against a field this cheap. SHe has some early speed and I think she’ll be more comfortable in this race today. Ree Nee’s Six (#5) is the other runner that makes a lot of sense to me in this spot. She ran well to be 4th in an open $6,250 claiming race when going one mile here last month. While she’s capable at longer distances, she’s done her best work at this six furlong trip. She’s more consistent than most in here. 

Race 3:

Seven fillies will dash five furlongs on the grass in this maiden special weight contest. I think Nashville could become a solid sire of turf sprinters. He sired the winner of a five furlong race for two year olds here last month and he sired a pair of runners in this race, both of which have a live look here. Philly Ruckus (#5) feels like the one to beat. She debuted on the dirt at the end of June and was competitive when finishing second that day. She’s been working well since, in company with her stablemate, Perfect Tune (#7). Philly Ruckus was clearly the better runner when they first met, and she;s likely going to find herself on or near the lead in this spot. I think she can carry her speed. I do think her stablemate is worth considering, despite the dull effort on debut. The fact that she has been keeping pace in the morning as the workouts are becoming more demanding feels meaningful. I’ll also consider the firster, Irish Echo (#1) from the rail. Her dam was a graded stakes winning sprinter on the dirt, but her two starts on the turf were better than they looked on paper. One of those races she was far behind, but closed a lot of ground to get within six lengths of Lady Shipman. Derek Ryan isn’t particularly known for having his horses at peak performance on debut, but I do think this filly can compete with these.  

Race 4:

Six fillies and mares will go a mile and 70 yards in this $7,500$6,500 N3L claiming race. Diamondinthesand (#5) is interesting in this race. SHe was really good when crushing her competition in a $7,500-$6,500 N2L race two back. She was good enough to take a swing against a decent state bred allowance group two back. She was not up to the task that afternoon. She came back to the turf where she finished 5th after being very eager on the front end in a $16K-$14K N3L claiming race. She drops back to a better level where she should be involved early on. Gwen to Win (#1) was very good last week when she easily cleared the N2L condition at this same tag. Wayne Potts comes right back to try to strike while the iron is hot with this daughter of Maximum Security. She’s going to be very tough if she can replicate that last effort. On deeper tickets, I’ll include No Denying (#2). She’s been a popular name in the claim box and she’s back at the same level after being claimed for this in three straight starts.  Devon Dougherty had her, lost her, and then re-claimed her last time out. Now she’ll try two turns for the first time. The pedigree tells me it’s a possibility, but she does have to be faster to win at this level. 

Race 5, The Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes:

The featured race this afternoon drew a field of six runners, but I don’t think we’re going to be seeing Stars and Stripes (#4) in this spot seeing as how he won the Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga on Wednesday. While Sergeant Capps (#3) and La Frost (#6) are entered in this race, they’re not in the same league as East Avenue (#1), Chunk of Gold (#2), and Bishops Bay (#5). This is the trio of runners that figures to decide this Grade 3 event. East Avenue and Chunk of Gold are very interesting four year olds that have changed some tactics after finishing 8th and 9th in the Kentucky Derby last spring. East Avenue was a horse that needed the lead to run a big race. He was ultra impressive in his first two starts, but it was a different story when he couldn’t make the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Risen Star. However, something changed in the Salvator Mile in his last start where he wound up in last place after a wide trip into the first turn. He passed every runner and managed to fend off Bishops Bay by the narrowest of margins. Chunk of Gold on the other hand didn’t show much early speed at all. However, he was able to pick up some of the pieces in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby in order to earn a spot in the starting gate for the Derby. After finishing second in the Ohio Derby last summer, he came to Mountaineer for the West Virginia Derby and Jarteh Loveberry was intent upon making the lead with him. He scored easily that day and would later go on to give Magnitude all he could handle in the Grade 2 Clark at the end of his three year old campaign. He resurfaced at the end of June in an allowance race where he didn’t have the best of trips when finishing second. I think he’s going to beat Bishops Bay to the lead. From there, we’ll see how much pressure Luis Rivera Jr. applies when riding Bishops Bay for the first time. I think we’ll see a stronger version of Chunk of Gold, who is one of the bigger overachievers in the last several years. I’ll back up with East Avenue because I do think he’s going to get the run of the race. He showed that he can win when he doesn’t make the lead, so I think that now gives Tyler Gaffalione a lot more options with him. If Chunk of Gold and Bishops Bay engage early, the table should be set for him to get going late. There has been a bit of a lack of consistency with this one that gives me a little bit of a cause for pause, but I do like the more conservative path that Brendan Walsh has been taking with him. 

Race 6:

I think Lupine (#6) is going to be tough to beat in this $16K-$14K N2X sprint on the turf for fillies and mares. She didn’t break well and was trying to catch up for the duration of her race at this level in her most recent start. She stayed here and was transferred to Devon Dougherty’s barn. Her Aqueduct efforts would be good enough to beat this field by open lengths if she;s able to get back to them .She hasn’t proven that she can run that way outside of the Big A, but this feels like the right spot for her to do just that. Precious Cat (#1) is the backup for me in this spot. She’s the morning line favorite here after coming a close second when going five furlongs at this condition in her last start. She makes her second start off the bench, but she loses the services of Edwin Gonzalez, who is not riding here today. 

Race 7:

We’ll head back to the dirt one more time with this $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going a mile and 70 yards. I landed on Seeking Serenity (#6), who is stretching out to two turns for the first time today. She’s another horse that is trained by Devon Dougherty, who could be in for a big afternoon.She was claimed for $12,500 after breaking her maiden here last month at six furlongs. This is a logical next step, even if she’s racing with a lower claiming tag than she had when she was in maiden claiming company. The dam did have one of her runners win in their first route race on dirt in their career. Bee N Dee (#5) was a massive disappointment at 2-5 in her last start two weeks ago. However, the bigger disappointment might have been getting stuck with her at that number, which was much lower than it should have been. She has been knocking on the door at this meet and there is a question how much she wants to win a race. However, I do like seeing that blinkers are going back on after them coming off in her last start. On deeper tickets, Hipatia (#7) will likely be the longest shot on the board in this race. She does tend to get better as these meets go on and her last effort at this level wasn’t all that bad. If she improves in August this year like she did last year, she could be upset minded against this group.

Race 8:

We’ll end the afternoon with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles on the grass course. I don’t think there’s any way that Told (#7) goes off at his 10-1 morning line price, however, I do think he has a decent chance to score in this race. He debuted at two turns on the Tapeta at Woodbine last fall, finishing a distant 5th in a maiden special weight race. He resurfaced for new owners in a maiden claiming race at Colonial in his last start, which was taken off the turf. He stretches back at two turns at the right level of competition for him. With his pedigree, I’d be surprised if he didn’t take to the turf. Mr. Hopkins (#4) takes the big drop from maiden special weight company into maiden claiming company and he drops right to the bottom today. He was a distant third in his last try against a small field where not everyone showed up. The class relief should be noticeable for him. I’ll also use It’s the Stones (#6) on my tickets. He has a few spots of trouble in his last race and could move forward from those with a better journey today. He paired his last two Beyers and could be sitting on a bigger effort today. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 63/239 (26.4%), $374.10 ($1.57 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet