Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 5/10/26 – By Eric Solomon

The second day of racing offers another 8 race card at Monmouth. The first stakes race of the meet is the $100K Long Branch Stakes. This race drew a field of six, but two of the runners are cross-entered elsewhere. We’ll also keep an eye on the skies to see if the first turf race of the meet (Race 8), stays on the lawn. First post today is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

The opener is a $20K-$18K N3L claiming race going six furlongs. Azteca Warrior (#2) is a different horse when he’s able to set the tempo, and when looking at his five rivals that he’s slated to face here, he should be to do just that. He broke his maiden on this course back in July when going gate to wire. He was claimed by Dan Ward, who had him going well at Oaklawn after a rough first start off the claim. He faced fellow Arkansas breds in each start there and while some of those races can come up a bit soft, I don’t see a huge talent gap between the fields he was facing there and the group that he’s up against today. The morning line favorite is Admiral Mo (#6), who is shipping north for Kelly Breen after just missing in an $8K N3L claiming race at Gulfstream in his last start. He was a voided claim in that race and he went to the sidelines afterwards. He resurfaces here at Monmouth four months later and that he is moving up in class is a plus. He’ll be heavily backed at the windows with Paco Lopez in the saddle. I think the top pick is close to him talent wise though, so the potential odds disparity could limit his overall value. 

Race 2:

Three year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this optional $75K claiming/N1X allowance race. Tululo (#4) is a bit of a wild card in this race. She’s never competed on dirt in her four career starts. She is a two time winner though, winning twice on the turf, including a score at this N1X level at Tampa. She’s entered with the $75K tag for this race as a result. Even though she won at a mile on the turf, her two sprints, one on turf and the other on Tapeta, were strong efforts. He’s sired by Girvin, who won the 2017 Haskell here at Monmouth. He’s had 19 horses make 50 starts on this course here at Monmouth and 24% of those runners found the Winner’s Circle. Her full sister has multiple wins at this distance on the dirt. I like her chances in this spot. L’Eclair (#6) is the one to beat in this race. She’s also a two-time winner, scoring in starter allowance company three starts ago at the Fair Grounds. Her efforts on a fast dirt course are strong, as her three forgettable races came in the slop, on the turf, and on the Tapeta. I think it’s clear what she does best and she gets the best rider on the grounds to do so today. Much like with the favorite in the first race though, the value is going to be hard to find with her. Dee’s On Dow (#1) was a two year old maiden winner on this course when making her first career start last summer. Since then, she’s only had two tries, one on Tapeta at Gulfstream and the other at two turns on the turf there. There are noticeable gaps in between her starts, which is not ideal. However, she is getting back on the dirt for the first time and this is not the strongest field for this condition. 

Race 3, The $100K Long Branch Stakes:

The feature today is a one mile and 70 yard contest for three year olds on the dirt. Six are entered, but Clocker Special (#2) is based in Kentucky and is cross-entered in a race at Churchill this afternoon. Red Zone Runner (#4) is also cross-entered in an allowance race at Parx on Tuesday where he is the 2-1 morning line favorite. Neither runner has a jockey listed to ride, so while either could presumably show up for this race, I’m thinking both are going to defect. I would definitely consider Red Zone Runner in this race if he shows up. He had a rough go in the Wood Memorial after breaking out and bumping hard out of the gate. He was also pinched back early when vying for the lead in a race where the pace completely fell apart. He was the first to drop back as he was in chase mode the entire time. His other five starts are solid enough to contend with this group. However, I think Bricklin (#5) is going to prove to be too tough. He hung in there against Renegade in the Arkansas Derby last time out, however he couldn’t keep pace late in that nine furlong race. When looking at how well Renegade ran in the Derby last week, it’s hard not to appreciate that last effort. I like the conservative approach by going to this race, as this could put him on the local path to the Haskell, perhaps with a stop in the Pegasus next month. He is the class of this field and it’s not surprising to see that Paco Lopez will be riding another horse that figures to go off at odds below even money. If only four runners go in this spot, it’s going to be hard to find any value, but I do think the presence of Chad Brown’s Hedge Ratio (#6) does keep the price on Bricklin from getting too low. He flashed a 100 Beyer Speed Figure when going a one turn mile in his last start in allowance company at the Big A. He beat his talented stablemate, Schoolyardsuperman in that race, so there is talent here. He’s being asked to try two turns for the first time and I suspect that in this compact group, the pace scenario is not going to be in his favor. While Brown’s runners were so good here last season, winning over 31% of the time, I think the top pick is the better horse for this race at this time. 

Race 4:

This is a $25K-$20K maiden claiming race going six furlongs, but there’s a bit of a twist here. New Jersey breds are able to run in this race without running with the claiming tag. While other jurisdictions card races like this, I don’t recall seeing this in New Jersey in previous years. The local horsemen have supported this though as half of the field are Jersey breds who are not available to be claimed. I’m going to try one of those runners, Hillsborough Eight (#2) on top in this spot. I don’t think this field is particularly deep and this runner has only the one start on his resume. Chuck Spina is a New Jersey based trainer. Sometimes he sends a string to Florida, but he did not do that this winter. It’s not uncommon to see him race a two year old at the end of a Monmouth Meet that probably isn’t quite ready to compete. However, he likes giving these horses race day experience and it’s not uncommon for them to run much better in their first start as a three year old in the following spring. His latest work suggests that this horse could be turning a corner. It’s also worth noting that he faced two sharp horses in that maiden race that have gone on to be competitive in open company. Horses sired by Sea Wizard are very good when sprinting here so I do consider him a live longshot in this spot. Skyrush (#6) feels like the horse to beat in this race for Danny Gargan. He was very good when coming up a neck short at Gulfstream at the end of February when facing $35K-$30K maiden claimers. He was purchased for $100K, so I’m not crazy about him dropping in class again. However, his last effort would likely put him in the Winner’s Circle with this bunch. I’ll use Royal Merit (#3) as a backup in this spot, shipping in from Tampa for Mike Dini. He’s started four times, and his two dull efforts came in a maiden special weight race and a route on the turf. His two best efforts came on the dirt when sprinting in a similar kind of a maiden claiming race. He is getting better and while he might need a race over the course before we see his best, I do think he is a contender, especially if the favorite doesn’t fire his best shot. 

Race 5:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a beaten $5K claiming race for three year olds and up going six furlongs. It seems like Hedge (#8) is getting back on track for David Jacobsen. He was claimed for $30K three back and he has two starts since. The Oaklawn start didn’t go very well, but he ran well on the Tapeta at Turfway in his last start, when facing similar kinds of horses. This is probably the right level of competition for him at this point, but I can still see him moving forward in this race. I don’t know what the ten year old gelding, Chuck Willis (#5) has left in the tank at this point in his career. I do know that he is speedy and he figures to find himself on the front end in this race where there’s not really another dedicated pacesetter. He’s making his first start since September and his first start on the dirt in over a year. There is a bit of a wild card nature with him in this race, however, if he’s right, he’s probably better than these. Landlord (#2) makes his first start since being transferred into Wayne Potts’ barn. Dan Ward was the trainer of record for him, but he’s taking on a new position as a Bob Baffert’s assistant who will be overseeing his string of horses at Churchill over the spring. This gelding has been facing state bred company at Oaklawn in his last several starts. Potts elects to add blinkers today while getting Paco Lopez to ride. 

Race 6:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this optional claiming/N1X allowance race. Since there was a race at a similar condition for three year old fillies earlier on the card, it’s not surprising that all six runners in this spot are four year olds or older. I’m not sure there’s anyone in this field that can keep She’s a Gamer (#4) honest on the front end. She’s been very good since she was claimed by Kelly Breen. She ran a big race two weeks ago at Tampa, winning a $75K N3L claiming race by eight widening lengths. She went quick early in a race where there was not other speed, and no one came close to her. While this is a class test, I trust Paco Lopez to ration her speed. I think she can hold both the Chad Brown runner, Layered (#1), and the Jersey bred, My Two Sophia’s (#5). While those ladies feel like the major threat to the top pick, Layered is clearly the one with more upside. She’s coming into this race in poor form, losing her last two starts by a combined total of 52+ lengths. She was a winner here on debut last summer though and she was bet down to the even money favorite in the Maryfield Stakes when making her second career start. Brown adds blinkers for her return to the Jersey Shore. While her class might prevail, I worry that she’s going to be pace compromised here. 

Race 7:

New Jersey bred fillies and mares will sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt in this state bred allowance race. No one in this field is getting more class relief than Rock the Rainbow (#7). She’s coming out of a pair of N1X allowance races in open company at Gulfstream where she finished off the board. Her lone start on this course was an 18 length maiden special weight victory when facing fellow New Jersey breds in August of 2024. She missed over a year of racing after that and her three starts since have not been great. She’s back in state bred company and she’s facing a lot of horses that aren’t doing what they do best in this kind of sprint race. I’m looking for an aggressive ride today from Jorge Vargas, which I think will help her find the Winner’s Circle here in Oceanport once again. I’m very interested to see what Lidia Rose (#5) will do in this race. She made my night when she won her debut at the Meadowlands last September, going off at 14-1. While I thought she’d be able to handle the turf when picking her on top that night, I also noted that I thought her best races were going to come when sprinting on the dirt. Her full brother, Boardwalk Jack, had a very productive 2025 season in state bred dirt sprints last season. Colonial Farms bred and sold him, but I was intrigued that they decided to keep and race this Sea Wizard filly.  Rory Huston’s horses tend to need a start or two off the bench before they’re at their best. If her odds float over her 8-1 morning line figure, I’m going to be playing her to win and in the exactas with the top pick. These are the two that I’m going to be leaning on in this race. 

Race 8:

While the nightcap is a $16K-$14K N3L claiming race that was carded for 1 1/16 miles on the turf course, yesterday afternoon was rainy so I’d be shocked if this race stays on the grass. If they’re on the turf, Jurisprudence (#8) is going to be very tough to deal with. When he races at the right level of competition, he’s a threat in part because he’s proven to be able to win races in a variety of ways. He won on debut when coming from far back, but he also scored three starts back with a smooth, front-running race. Paco should be able to let the race come to him. He’s worth considering on the dirt as well, but I’m more interested in Airborne Elite (#1) if the surface switch is made. He’s a true dirt horse facing many that would rather be on the grass. After some up and down efforts over the winter in New York, he seems to have righted the ship. On the dirt, this will be definite class relief for him. That Sun of a Gun (#7) is also worth considering as a backup on either surface. His last turf start was sharp at Tampa, while his last dirt start was not so hot. He was acting up before the race, so that could have played into his dull effort that day. I do like that he has been competing recently at Tampa prior to coming back here. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 4/8 (50%), $18.50 ($2.31 ROI)

Data for Winners Last Start

A data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners have fared very well here over the last two seasons. There has also been a downward trend with New York shippers early in the meet here over the last few seasons, so that is something worth paying attention to as well in 2026.