Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 6/28/26 – By Eric Solomon

Five of the eight races on the Sunday afternoon card at Monmouth are carded for the turf course. The rails for each of those races will be set at 24 feet. First post this afternoon is 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start things off with $22K-$18K claiming race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. I landed on Tocayo (#1) in the opener. He’s a new acquisition for Juan Avila, who won with yet another new runner on yesterday’s card with Knox. This one has been on the sidelines for six months after having his $35K claim voided at Gulfstream. He;s a former stakes winner on the turf, winning the Dania Beach Stakes early on in his three year old season. He missed over a year of racing before coming back last spring. There are some synthetic efforts that muddy up his form a bit, but his grass form is generally pretty sharp. If he’s ready to fire off the bench, he’s dangerous in this field. Tok Tok (#8) is ridden by a new face to this jockey colony today, Edwin Gonzalez. Before moving his tack to Florida full time, Gonzalez was racking up wins at Penn National. He’s winning at a 20% clip this year, so he immediately brings some talent into this room that is fairly young at the moment, especially with Paco Lopez riding out of town. Like the top pick, he was a stakes winner early on in his career and also like the top pick, he missed a large chunk of time. Derek Ryna claimed him for $25K and he’s struggled to have this gelding in the same form that Graham Motion had him in. However, he’s back on the turf after two dirt tries and he’s getting class relief after facing much better runners. Fidelightcayut (#7) moves up in class after a game win with $12,500-$10,500 claimers here two weeks ago. He’s been in very sharp form, so the move up in class isn’t a concern. I do think this field is much deeper than the field he was up against last time out. He also loses Paco Lopez in favor of Angel Morales, who has only six wins this year in 105 starts. He has had success when riding for Avila though, so it’s worth playing this one on multi-race tickets since his current form has been so sharp. 

Race 2:

Six, two year olds will go five furlongs on the dirt in this race. I landed on one of the two second time starters in this race, Justintimeformusic (#1). He’s a half to the Grade 2 winner, Faypien. He debuted at this level three weeks ago and ran a reasonable 4th for his debut. His only workout since that race appeared to be more businesslike, so I do think he gained some valuable experience from that first trip around the track in the afternoon. I see him as a horse who can improve in this race. The New Jersey bred, Even Up (#2) is the debut runner that I’m most interested in. He’s a full brother to the multiple stakes winning horse, Great Navigator. That one most recently won the New Jersey Breeders’ Handicap here back in August. Eddie Owens had a maiden three year that was an impressive debut winner here on Friday. I’ll back up with Final Minute (#4) for Jorge Delgado. He’s from the freshman crop of the Grade 1 winning sprinter, Drain the Clock. That sire has had two debut winners from six total starters early on in his career as a stallion. The barn already has a pair of baby winners at this meet. 

Race 3:

Seven runners plus a pair of main track only entrants have been assembled for this maiden special weight race for three year olds and up. Fighting Gamecock (#4) who will be making his debut this afternoon. John Servis has the colt training at Parx, but turf racing won’t be an option there until later on this race. Caravaggio is a solid turf sprint sire, especially with his debut runners. He’s had 27% of the time with firsters in turf sprints. The dam’s other foal to make it to the track lost in a photo in his debut before coming back to score in his first try in a turf sprint. Gotta Get It Right (#1) is also worth a look in his first start since being eased up in his last try on the dirt at Laurel. His only other turf start was a decent on the grass there last October. He’s been a bad actor at the gate, so that’s something that he’s going to have to rein in if he wants his picture taken. Beach Beamer (#7) feels like the runner that they’re going to need to catch in this race. He’s been knocking on the door only to come up a bit short at the end of the day. He is consistent though, which gives him a leg up with this field. 

Race 4:

Two year old fillies will get their turn to dash five furlongs on the main track in this maiden special weight contest. John Servis has another live looking first timers in this race with Witchy Vibes (#2). Her works at Parx seem a little sharper when compared to her stablemate (who I do like in the previous race). Her sire Epicenter has one debut winner from nine dirt sprinters this far. Quality Spring (#1) is the backup for me in this race. She has some sharp local drills in preparation for this start. Essential Quality has won with 15% (6-41) of his two year old dirt sprinters thus far. This is the first foal to race from a Bolt d’Oro dam with only one career start. I’ll also use Everything Changes (#6) as a backup in this race. Jorge Delgado is very good with first time starters, and he’s already notched a few wins with some of his babies at this meet. I’m not convinced this is one of his better ones though. Cyberknife is still looking for his first winner as a sire. She’s also the first foal to race from the mare Good Shabbos, who just missed in her debut at Monmouth in 2019, but ended up never winning a race though. The works are okay, but not eye-catching and I do wonder if the price differential is going to wide between her and the top pick in this spot. 

Race 5:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. Everyone entered in this race qualified under the N2L condition. It’s hard to feel confident picking anyone to beat the favorite, Identity Crisis (#1) here. He just missed at this level in his last start at the end of May. He led most of the way only to be nailed on the wire. There were three short priced runners in that race and four longshots. There doesn’t seem to be anyone as good as the winner of that race in this field. That means that it is likely that odds will go below the 3-2 morning line threshold for him. Unless he falls apart, it’s hard to see anyone being fast enough to catch him late. First Navy Jack (#5) was a somewhat distant third in that same race. He does have one race in his career at five furlongs back 2025 that might be fast enough for this group. He wanted no part of going two turns two weeks ago though. I think it’s morley likely that he closes late to get a small piece here. 

Race 6:

A dozen New Jersey breds filled the entry box for this maiden special weight sprint going six furlongs. I’m interested in the second time starter, I’m Going Cruising (#8) for Joseph Mazza and Jose Gomez. He debuted in open maiden company three weeks ago where he faced two very fast runners that were in a race of their own late. He was 5th that afternoon beaten over 15 lengths, but it’s worth pointing out that the third place finisher, who was only about four lengths better than him, dropped in class and broke his maiden at Parx two weeks ago. This is class relief for him as there’s no one in this field in the same ballpark as either Amberjack or Frostelle. St. Erling (#2) is slated to make his first start since the fall of 2024 this afternoon. I’m not certain if he’s going to be the same horse 20 lengths removed from his last start. However, the horses that beat him in those late summer maiden races here are much better horses than the runners that he’s facing in this spot today. The dam ran some nice races on top tier circuits before an injury cut her career short. She’s been a solid producer of horses as five of the eight runners that she has foaled have found the Winner’s Circle. Most recently, Joan Milne, who is the trainer for this colt, trained his half brother to a maiden score here last month. While the lukewarm morning line favorite is Roma Art (#6) for Kelly Breen, I prefer the firster from coming in from Parx, Change Your Boots (#5). Bobbi Hawthorne has had a disappointing first half of 2026, but she’s a capable horsewoman. The works are solid enough for this one to be sent across state lines to New Jersey. A full sibling to this runner was a competitive third in his debut a few years ago before breaking his maiden in his second career start.  

Race 7:

The featured race this afternoon is the second leg of the Malouf Auto Group Starter Handicap Series going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Derek Ryan got Two’s a Crowd (#6) back on the turf this winter at Tampa and since then, this Cloud Computing gelding has been a different horse. He crushed an N1X allowance field at Aqueduct in April and he just missed in a race in a similar series at Tampa in his start before that. He ran in the first leg which was taken off the turf and contested over a sloppy course, where he still managed to win. He’s a nose away from having four straight wins and should appreciate getting back on the lawn today. The clear alternative is Eldest Son (#4), who was third is another different heat in the same series in the slop three starts ago. His last two starts on the turf have been much sharper though, including a game 5 th place finish in the Monmouth Stakes here two weeks ago. The figures are sharp, but it is fair to point out that he doesn’t win a ton, as his lone win in 9 starts this year came back in February at Tampa against a softer group. The stakes effort should keep him as the favorite here, but I think it’s more likely that he comes up just a bit short. 

Race 8:

We’ll close out the weekend with a $12,500-$10,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares scheduled to go 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. There has been some rain in the vicinity of Monmouth over the weekend, so the course could be a little less than firm and if that is the case here, I think this becomes a great spot for Clay Soldier (#6) and Edwin Gonzalez. She’s dropping in class after a respectable third in her last start at Laurel in starter allowance company. She struggled two back in her first try over this course when facing a nice allowance group. She was very sharp on a good course last summer at Woodbine though and she was a handy winner the last time she was entered in an open claiming race. She has the class and she appears to be trending back in a better direction here. She’s my strongest opinion on the card in a race where she should offer a fair price. While I can’t fault anyone for using either Princess Gladys (#8) or Tap It Up (#9), I do think it’s fair to wonder if they can overcome some ground loss from outside draws in this race, since this field is fairly evenly matched. As a result, I’ll back up with Taprixie (#3) instead. I think she’ll appreciate getting back on the turf while making her second start of the meet. She was a winner here on this course at this distance last summer when scoring in a beaten claiming race. This is a bit of a class test, but I do think she is capable while getting back on the lawn. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 32/121 (26.4%), $185.50 ($1.53 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet