Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday 7/19/26 – By Eric Solomon

It’s been a good weekend for Monmouth based horses as Book ‘Em Danno did not disappoint his backers on Friday on a day honoring him. A day later the Pegasus victor Baby Vino, trained by Lindsay Schultz, pulled off a massive upset in the Haskell Stakes. Rain came through several times during the Haskell card and more rain came through overnight, so I’ll be handicapping the four turf races for both surfaces. Post time for the first race is 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a $16K-$14K N2X claiming race (which is essentially a N2L claimer) going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. This is an odd spot for a Euro invader as Jorge Delgado and Paco Lopez pair up with Monsieur Fudge (#5). I’ll be taking a wait and see approach on this one though. Board of Directors (#6) feels like the one to beat in this spot. He just missed at this level in his last start. He doesn’t have a ton of speed though, so at short odds, I’ll have him on the A line, but I like Thingamabob (#8) here. He’s drawn outside, but he feels like a lone speed type in this race. He’s making his second start off the layoff. His six furlong sprint in his return race felt like a race designed to get him ready for a two turn turf race. He was protected in that spot, so it may have been designed to be more of an afternoon workout. He’s in for a tag today and I think he could be tough to run down. I’ll give him another shot on the dirt if he does opt to stay in this race if it comes off the turf. He blew the break and never really had a chance at six furlongs. He would have a pace edge on the main track as well. On dirt, I’d also use Imperial Spy (#1). He was sharp on the turf last time out, but he’s also proven on the dirt.

Race 2:

Seven are entered in this $40K-$30K maiden claiming contest going six furlongs. Six of the seven runners in this race were bred in New Jersey and thus are not eligible to be claimed. The lone horse running for a tag is the morning line favorite, Ghostwriter (#3). He’s a bit of a question mark here though. He was sharp in his debut at Tampa when going 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt. He tried turf at this level in his second start and was flat. He was scheduled to stretch out to two turns on the turf, but ended up staying in with an off the field at 1 1/16  miles last time out. Once it was evident he was going to be last, he was eased up, making his last start look worse than it is on paper. Paco Lopez takes the assignment, and just like it was in the Haskell, he’ll be outside of a Jorge Vargas runner. Vargas had himself a day yesterday, winning three races (including the Haskell) with runners that paid $15.20, $58.00, and $18.00 to win. He lands on Twin Lights (#1), who feels like the clear alternative to the favorite. He was sharp in his return to the races in March at Gulfstream, finishing a game third in $25K-$20K maiden claiming company as the favorite. He’s another Sea Wizard runner for Eddie Owens and Holly Crest Farm. This barn got off to a slow start, but business has been picking up lately. He feels like a candidate to wire this field. 

Race 3:

Seven are entered in this optional $12,500 claiming/$6,250 starter allowance race going six furlongs. Three runners in this race, Heart N Soul (#2), Canuto (#6), and Just Relax (#7) figure to take the bulk of the wagering attention in this race. Heart N Soul is a fade for me from this group. This is a steep drop in class for his return to sprinting on the dirt. He was in sharp form at Oaklawn, but has not been as sharp of late. He makes his second start for Jorge Delgado who drops him in for the $12,500 tag after racing with the $40K tag one start ago. I like Canuto a lot in this race. He’s getting back on the dirt after a dull turf sprint here. His form has been muddied a bit lately since the connections have been really trying to get him to like turf racing. He is 3-3 on this oval with all three of those wins coming at this distance. He was very sharp at Gulfstream at the end of 2025 and I think his last race is a sign to quit the turf races and focus on races like this. Just Relax (#7), with Paco Lopez is going to be more of a backup for me. After going into Haskell Day winning 46% of his local races, Lopez was shut out in 12 races yesterday. He’s going to be on some short prices this afternoon and there’s no Prat, Saez, or Gaffalione riding here today. This one was a bit flat last month in his last start at Delaware, but that race came seven days after a much better effort. Simone gave him three weeks off this time and brings him back to the Shore and reunites him with Paco. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares are scheduled to dash 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course in this $40K-$30K maiden claiming race. If this race stays on the turf, I think both of the second time starters are worth considering. The Laurel invader Authentic Lady (#6) debuted with $35K-$28K maiden claimers at Laurel. I see this as an equivalent class level and judging by her odds in that race, there’s reason to believe that could have been a tougher field than what she’s dealing with here. She showed some speed before fading in that race, but she should be more fit for this effort. Blinkers go on for the first time today Intothemystic (#4) was slow into stride at this level when going five furlongs. She was traveling well enough late, but had to halt her rally when being forced to steady at the top of the stretch. She did fight on to get third that day and should be a little better with the additional half furlong and the maiden voyage under her belt. This feels like a weird spot for Paynterpretty (#1), who is 5-2 on the morning line. Her race in the mud at six furlongs would fit well with this group in an off the turf spot. On grass, she’s more of a B tier runner. She’d be on the A line for me on the dirt as the top pick. I’d also use Ausplexity (#2) on the main track. I don’t like her move up in class on the turf, but she ran well enough on the dirt at this distance two back. 

Race 5:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a state bred optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. Bad Girl Betty Lou (#3) is intriguing in this race where she’ll make her first start finishing 5th in a starter allowance race on the Tapeta at Gulfstream in January. She broke her maiden on the dirt in a race that was taken off the turf at Pimlico last spring. She has not been on the dirt in the afternoon since. I do like that they’re keeping her in a protected spot here. Eddie Owens sent out Stormy Girl (#8) to a very impressive debut score here three weeks ago. She battled on the front end in a large field and was able to pull clear late with relative ease. Jorge Vargas is back in the saddle with another live mount on this card. I’ll also use Allenhurst (#9) on the A line in this race. While she’s never visited the Winner’s Circle here at Monmouth, she is a very consistent runner. She does tend to prefer to finish second, but her experience gives her an edge in a race where the main contenders are not yet proven. 

Race 6:

We’ll start the Late $3 Pick-3 with a $12,500-$10,500 claiming race scheduled to go 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. It’s hard to gauge who is going to be in the starting in this race as both Declaration Time (#7) and Summer Bee (#8) are entered at Penn National and Colonial on Wednesday. He’s Got This (#4) was entered and scratched yesterday in a two turn race at this level, however the reason for being scratched was listed as a vet scratch on Equibase, so I’m not sure if that bodes well for him today or not. Shakin Loose (#1) was 5th at this level last time out, beaten only two lengths by Summer Bee. I think he’s better than what he showed that day and he possibly could have needed that race, which was his first turf try since September. He’s 0-6 on this course, but he just missed at this level last year. I’m looking for a better effort from him today. Curious Soul (#2) is a little interesting as well. He faced Gins and Tins (#5) at Penn National in his last two starts and he got the better of the 5-2 second choice in his last try when facing $8K claimers. He has better turf efforts in his past and he’s only four years old so there is reason to believe that he could move forward in this spot. GIns and Tins is a deeper play for me on the turf. He’s a ten year old gelding who moves back in Panagiotis Synnefias barn. I’m not sure how much he has left in the tank, but he does like this course and he has handled this condition here in each of the last two seasons. On the dirt, I’m leaning on Curious Soul. He’s a dual surface threat and a horse that won three times on the dirt at Parx prior to moving back to the turf this summer. I’d also make sure to use He’s Got This if he does get to participate. He’s done most of his best work on the dirt, and while the shorter distance is a bit of a question mark, I do think he’s classy enough to score against a depleted group at this level. 

Race 7:

The feature today is a competitive optional $40K claiming/conditioned allowance race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. There’s a pair of South Florida invaders in this race that appear to be very formidable. Racing Driver (#3) and Captain Danny (#7) last saw each other on 5/31 at Gulfstream, where Captain Danny beat his rival by less than a length. I think they’re fairly evenly matched but overall, I think it’s pretty clear that Racing Driver has been facing some tougher opposition. I also think he has a bit of a higher ceiling. He is graded stakes placed and while this is a nice group, it’s probably one of the softer fields that he’s seen over the last several months. Captain Danny gets Paco Lopez, which certainly is an advantage, but I think it also means that he’ll be a shorter price than his rival and if the odds disparity on the morning line reflects the way the public wagers on this race, I prefer the value with Racing Driver. I do think they’re close enough to make sure to properly covered with both in the multi-race wagers though. These are the two that I’m going to be aligned with in this race. 

Race 8:

Haskell Week will conclude with a $16K-$14K N2X claiming race for fillies and mares scheduled to go one mile over the turf course. On the turf, I do think this a great spot for Bella Bello Banker (#7). She has two wins in two starts on this course this season. . While she’s running for a lower tag, I do think her speed figures indicate this is probably the right level for her at the moment. She defected from a tougher spot two weeks ago. Paco Lopez rides her for the first time and I trust him to ration her speed at this mile distance. It’s not very creative, but El Ma’any (#6) ran here last week and was a smooth winner against a similar bunch. Francisco Martinez has a feel for how to ride this improving filly as he scored with her last weekend and had her right there three back. She’ll keep the favorite honest in this spot, but I’m not crazy about the quick turnaround for her. If this race gets moved to the dirt, I think Madam Prosecutor (#5) is a horse to keep an eye out for. Her efforts at two turns on the dirt are generally better than her sprints. Cipriano Gil has done very well with a limited sample of rides and he’s 3-3 when riding for Kathleen O’Connell here at Monmouth. Y’allreadyforthis (#10) would also be worth using on the dirt. She is better on the turf, but if she were to stay and compete on the dirt, I do think her figures fit. She doesn’t have much early speed, so she’d likely be conceding a tactical advantage, but I do think she’s playable with this group.

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 43/167 (25.7%), $240.30 ($1.44 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet