Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 8/24/25 – By Eric Solomon

It’s a great day to be a New Jersey bred as there are 12 races, all of which are restricted to horses bred in the Garden State. There are about $900K in total purses available this afternoon for the New Jersey Thoroughbred Racing Festival. Three handicaps anchor this card which also offers some very interesting allowance and maiden special weight races. Get in on the action early as there is a $21K carryover in the Early Pick-5 this afternoon, which is a little wild considering that one of the winners in that Late Pick-5 yesterday that went un-hit went off at 2-5. First post for this large program is 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

NOTE: I’ll have the 11th and 12th races typed up in the morning and added to the analysis when I’m back home and can get to my new contact lenses. I wanted to get the early part of the card put now in light of the nice Pick-5 carryover that now starts the card.  (ADDED 9:22 AM, 8/24/25)

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

We’ll kick off the New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival with an optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. The rails will be all the way in at 0 feet for the turf racing this afternoon. It’s not uncommon to see horses entered in these state bred races at distances that might be slightly outside of their comfort zone, and that’s what we’re seeing in the opener. Duboff (#1) is going to be a heavy favorite in the first race, shipping in from New York while making her third start off the layoff. She debuted at this distance last year on closing weekend and then she wheeled back six days to break her maiden emphatically when going five furlongs upstate at the Meadowlands. She was overmatched in open stakes company in New York before going to the sidelines. She came back with a strong effort in $35K N2L claiming company at Belmont at the Big A and she followed up that effort with a game 4th place finish in open N1X allowance company at the Spa. Both of those races were contested at a mile which feels like the sweet spot for this Handsome Mike filly. Gregg Sacco brings her back to New Jersey for this race where she looks awfully tough to beat. While I think the distance might be a little short for her, I don’t see her regressing enough to lose this race. The second choice, One Fine Wine (#5) is better at two turns, and it’s hard to figure that any of the other five will improve enough to defeat her in this spot. The backup for me will be Coracle (#2), who is one of several runners that Cathal Lynch will be sending out this afternoon. She was in the three path for the better part of her last race at this level, which was her second start of the year. She is also making her third start off a lengthy layoff, so she should be fit for this spot. I’d like her better if she had some more success on this course, however, both of her career wins came at this distance over at Laurel. She is more appealing than the others for the backup spot.

Race 2:

Nine two year olds will dash 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt in this maiden special weight contest. This race runs directly through the favorite, Cairo Surprise (#1), who I picked to possibly upset a huge Wesley Ward favorite in an open maiden special weight here two weeks ago. He put forth a big effort, but was second best that day, losing by a  little less than two lengths. That was a big effort and Cathal Lynch has good numbers second time out. I’m definitely going to be using this horse again, but perhaps there will be better value elsewhere. Chuck Spina has a pair of debuting runners and the one that is more interesting to me is Hillsborough Eight (#8). While he hasn’t been setting the track on fire in the mornings, he was foaled by a dam who has been a decent producer of New Jersey bred runners. He’s a full brother to Jewel of the Ocean, who runs in the 10th race today. She just missed here on debut last year. The dam has foaled a debut winner and horses sired by Sea Wizard have been very dangerous at first asking (8-28, 28% with firsters in dirt sprints). I’ll try to connect with him at a price on top in this spot. Clever Charlie (#3) is the logical backup in this race after running a strong second last out. He came within a length of the winner and they were well clear of J J Pacheco (#7) who was third. This is a salty spot, but if the odds disparity between him and the favorite widens, I start to be more interested. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will dash six furlongs in this optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race going six furlongs. I’m not completely sold on the favorite, Kate’s Love (#6) in this spot. Early speed is her game and I’m concerned that she’s going to be caught in between rivals in this race. I’ll give a look to She’s a Bombshell (#9) from the outside stall in this race. She debuted on this card last year and finished a distant 4th behind a filly that won that race by 18 lengths. She came back with a stronger effort that put her in the Winner’s Circle on closing weekend. She went to the sidelines and to say 2025 has been disappointing is a bit of an understatement. She was bad in her first two starts, however, she ran into Howler that day, a filly that we’re going to see in the Eleven North Handicap later on today. She tried open company after that, which felt like a bit of a mistake. She moved to the turf for her last two starts, finishing last after showing some early zip two back. Her recent start was by far her best, as she finished within two lengths of Mischief Maxey in a beaten $40K-$30K claiming race. She’s drawn outside of the other speed runners, which may work to her advantage here. If she can run back to her last effort on turf while coming back to the dirt, I think she’s going to be very competitive with this group. Salt and Light (#3) is the only runner in this field that has yet to face winners. She broke her maiden in her most recent start, coming with a strong three wide to win going away. I like her progression of races coming into this race, where she’s admittedly going to see a tougher field. She figures to get a decent pace setup in this race, which I feel also makes her dangerous. I’m not sure how many big efforts D’tiger Lily (#8) has left in the tank. She makes her 6th start of her seven year old campaign this afternoon for Tony Wilson in a race where she’s entered with the $15K tag. She was a winner here in June during the 2024 meet. That was a part of what was the best stretch of races during her 21 race career. She tossed the rider on a sloppy course two back and came back to finish third at this level in her last try. She’ll need to build off her last try, but she’s another runner that figures to benefit from what could be a solid pace in front of her. 

Race 4:

Two year old fillies will dash 5 ½ furlongs on the main track in this maiden allowance race. This race will be the first leg in the Mid-Card Pick-5 this afternoon. There’s some interesting runners debuting in this spot, so I’ll take some chances with them. While I think Omahamoiselle (#4) has a future on turf, I think she could be tough in this race while making her first career start in a dirt race. Ben Perkins Jr. doesn’t have a wealth of winners with two year old first time starters, however, he trained the mare, who was a winner on debut when sprinting on the turf. Her first foal to race is still looking for her first win, but she’s been competitive in her defeats. Getting Omaha Beach as a sire feels like a big plus, as he gets 17% winners from his debuting runners in dirt sprint races. Her works indicate that she can run a bit. Aria D (#3) is one of two runners that Patrick McBurney is unveiling in this race. Paco Lopez rides Luciana (#6), who is the other filly from this barn. While that might indicate to me that McBurney thinks higher of that one, Samuel Marin has won 22% of the races for this barn at Monmouth. The sire Galawi has two runners to debut, with both running solid races. Granted one winner came at Energy Downs, that one did win by 14 lengths. The other runner to debut on the dirt from this sire just missed at Laurel. The dam’s first horse to race, Sadie Baby, runs in the first race today, and she was competitive on the dirt in her debut. La Resolana (#5) is the experienced runner that I’ll go with in this spot. She debuted against the boys in a tough race last out. Clever Charlie, who is entered in the second race, could certainly flatter her in this race if he runs a strong race. She was working well going into that race and was clearly doing well enough to be entered against males. Unless the first timers put on a show in this race, I don’t think this field is as strong as the field she saw last month. She had a strong work over this course last week and appears ready to move forward in her second career try. 

Race 5, The $125K Charles Hesse III Handicap:

The first of three handicap races on this lucrative card is a 1 1/16 mile test on the dirt for three year olds and up. Riding Pretty (#4) was very good here last year, and I think she could pull off a mild upset while facing the boys in this contest today. She dominated the Smart N Classy Handicap at one mile here last summer and she closed to win the Eleven North Handicap on this card last year. She shipped to Gulfstream this winter and she struggled there in three starts. She was flat in the Spruce Fir and then finished second to Mia’s Crusade, who ran huge in the Smart N Classy Handicap this year. She came back to win the Jersey Girl Handicap on the turf in fairly easy fashion. She’s trained by Eddie Owens who does not have a horse running in the Eleven North later on today. She could have easily gone to the race where she would have been one of the favorites to defend her title, but the fact that Owens has her in this spot tells me that he thinks she’s better at two turns and she’s in really good form. The best males bred in New Jersey right now do their best at one turn and we’ll see them throw down in the New Jersey Breeders’ Handicap in the 8th race today. I think we’re going to see a big effort from this Jack Milton mare in this race. I’m still convinced that Wildncrazynight (#3) is going to do his best work at two turns, but he put up a strong figure when he finished second in the Pegasus in June. That effort was good enough for him to test his luck in the Haskell, where he jogged home last. The fact that he was in that race is likely going to cause his price to be lower than what it probably should be in this race. However, he is the lone speed threat here, which makes him dangerous. I suspect that he’s going to be caught, but the pace advantage is what lands him in the backup spot for me. 

Race 6:

We’ll head back to the turf for this maiden special weight contest covering 1 1/16 miles. A dozen runners are entered in this wide open contest where four of the 12 runners are three year old fillies that are taking on the boys. One of the angels I’ve been writing about this weekend is trying to identify horses that might be overbet after having Paco Lopez ride them in their prior start. Those horses are now 8-74 at this meet (10.8% winning percentage) after picking up a win with a short-priced favorite. In this race, we have a horse that was last ridden by Paco Lopez, but I’m not sure he’s going to be overbet in this race. At 10-1 (ML) in this wide open race, I’m willing to play Happy Offering (#5), who has been a beaten favorite in his last two tries. He’s had some tough trips in his last three starts, and part of that has been a failure to get out the gate cleanly. He has plenty of tactical speed, but he hasn’t been able to employ that weapon because he’s been unprepared at the break. The blinkers are coming off, which could possibly help. Paco Lopez rides another runner in this race, but Samy Camacho is a more than capable replacement. This horse is bred to get two turns on the turf, and I think he’s capable of a better effort than what we saw from him in his turf debut two back. When looking at the wide open nature of this field, I’m going to want every bit of that 10-1 morning line figure in order to play him to win in this spot. The inconsistency is concerning, but I do believe the ability is there. If he can get the right kind of forward trip, I think he’s going to break through. Paco Lopez winds up on one of the the four, three year old fillies in this race, Garden Gal (#1). The rail draw should work well for her as I think Paco is going to try to have her well placed in the early stages of this one. This filly has two starts, one with state bred fillies and mares and the second with open maiden special weight company. She ran a solid race to be third on debut, but she was outclassed in her last start. However, she did pair her Beyer Figures, signaling that she could be sitting on a bigger effort in this race. Joan Milne’s runners have struggled mightily at this meet, so I’m not sure I’m comfortable taking any lower than the 7-2 morning line with this one. Diamondinthesand (#10) is another runner that is worth consideration in this race. She’s another one of the three year old fillies and like the top pick, she is trained by Chuck Spina. Her local debut wasn’t great, but the winner of that race was much the best. I’m not sure there’s a standout like that in this field. She made a strong middle move two back after a wide journey with $50K maiden claimers in New York two starts back. She does have a tricky post for this race, but if Chantal Sutherland can work out a trip, she has a live look in this spot as well. 

Race 7:

The Jersey Shore 6 begins with an optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year olds and up sprinting six furlongs. Optical Bijou (#7) is an interesting player in this race. He only has one career score in 10 tries and he didn’t cross the finish line first in that victory. However, he was solid at this level last summer, just missing in races like this two times. He struggled somewhat in open allowance company before going to the sidelines for the winter. Ben Perkins Jr. brought him back in April in an open allowance at Laurel where he finished 4th at long odds. He tried the turf here two back and caught a sloppy course in his most recent effort. He’s poised to return to this level on a fast dirt track, which is what he has done best in his career. He has big efforts on this card in 2023 and 2024, telling me that his connections try to have him in top form on New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival Day. Alpha Company (#4) cleared this condition last July, After that he faltered in races here at two turns and at Parx with open starter allowance company when going seven furlongs. He went to the sidelines for eight months and returned in a turf race here. His last two efforts came with lower level claimers in open company. He was claimed for $5K last out in a winning effort. I like this claim a lot by Dan Ward because the horse seems to be getting back into better form. He cost $5K, but he’s on sale for $15K in a race that carries a total purse of almost $70K. He’s also a horse that, if he’s not claimed in the next few starts, could be a part of Dan Ward’s stable at Oaklawn over the winter. While I don’t love the rail draw, Cassation (#1) continues to run consistent races at this level for Anthony Margotta Jr. He was third last out at long odds. While he might be more talented on the turf, this is best distance on dirt. I prefer him underneath, especially if he’s closer to his 9-2 morning line. However, he’s a horse that went off at 35-1 last time out, so if that 9-2 figure doubles, he’d be more appealing as a horse to take a chance on. 

Race 8. The $100K New Jersey Breeders’ Handicap:

I see this six furlong dash for New Jersey breds as a showdown between Speaking (#8), who is looking to win this race for the second time, and Protected (#4) who is undefeated in three starts in 2025. Speaking just loves racing at Monmouth Park. He is 8-12 here with seven wins at this six furlong distance. He won the John J. Reilly Handicap here in May for the third straight year. He won this race back in 2023, and he did so with no starts in between the Reilly and this race, like he’s attempting to do again this year. He’s been working well in the AM, and I’m expecting to see another trophy added to his case today. Protected feels like the up and coming horse in this division. John Kimmel had him facing open company in his first two starts in New York. He showed a lot of potential by beating an open maiden special weight off the layoff this April at the Big A. Kimmel has shipped him here twice, leaving with wins both times. Front end speed is his game and Paco Lopez is back to try to get him his first stakes win today. 

Race 9:

State bred fillies and mares will go one mile on turf in this optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race. There’s not a lot of speed signed on for this race, so the straightaway start could work in favor of Golden Ring (#9). She’s been solid in her three efforts since trying the turf back in May. She was second that day to a heavy favorite. Her next race came off the turf, but her effort wasn’t bad that day either. She broke through to break her maiden two back at this distance, sitting a nice stalking trip before exploding in the stretch. She faced winners for the first time last time out and was 12th of 12 in the early stages of a 5 ½ furlong sprint. She passed 10 horses to get into second, but ran out of real estate to catch the race winner that day. I appreciate the versatility that she showed in that spot, and that should only make her stronger here. I like her chances quite a bit in this race. The backup for me in this race is Joy and Prosperity (#7), who makes her third start off the layoff today for a new trainer. She was away slowly when facing many of these in her most recent start. However, she runs consistent figures on the turf and she’s usually trying hard at the end of races. At the end of the day, she’s had seven straight races where she’s finished off the board, so I do see her as a horse I want to use underneath in the vertical exotics. 

Race 10: The $100K Eleven North Handicap:

The third and final handicap race of the day is a six furlong dash for state bred fillies and mares. A field of 11 has been assembled for this race, which starts with the favorite, Mia’s Crusade (#2) and Paco Lopez. She lost her regular rider when Jomar Torres decided not to compete here this season. Isaac Castillo rode her in the Spruce Fir at the beginning of the meet, and she was uncharacteristically flat in a race that she had won in both 2023 and 2024. Paco Lopez took the assignment and he was able to get the most of this mare when dominating the Smart N Classy Handicap in June. She’s been away since as she tries to win this race for the second time in her career. There might be an under the radar runner standing in her way though. I’m intrigued with My Two Sophia’s (#4), who will be the top pick here. She was claimed for $17,500 when she just missed in an N3L race at Saratoga. Her last two efforts there were sharper than she’s been in a little while. She was excellent on debut and when clearing the first level allowance condition in her first two starts against fellow New Jersey breds. After showing that potential, her numbers have flatlined lately. However, she was claimed by Panagiotis Synnefias, who has a pair of graded stakes wins at this meet already. I’m going to hope she’ll wake up in this spot for her new connections. Howler (#3) also figures to be a player in this race. She was an easy winner in a state bred N1X race three back. Two back she faced open company and in her last start, she faced a strong group of males in state bred allowance company. She’s going to be on the engine early in this spot, and she’ll likely have company. She’ll need to bring her best, but I think she’s trending up.

Race 11: 

A full field of 14 is scheduled to go to post in this optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance test going one mile on the turf. What’s Up Mr. Z (#9) is the pick in this race. This eight year old gelding is making his third start off the layoff, and when you look at his running lines, that is usually when you see him take a big step forward. With Just Comply (#3), Perrotto (#5), Wild Jamie (#8), and Midnight Story (#13) all signed up for this race, there should be a solid up front. Ideally, I’d like to see Chantal Sutherland find a spot for him in the second flight, while trying to avoid being caught too wide when going into the first turn. He’s made two starts this year, both of which came in open allowance company when sprinting on the turf. He wasn’t terrible in those races, but we also didn’t see the best that this one has to offer. He has a win at this mile distance and should be able to get first run on the deeper closers. Vesparo (#4) continues to search for the elusive second win. He broke his maiden on the turf here and since then he’s made six starts against winners. The five tries that came at this level of competition, were all competitive efforts, but he came up short each time. He’s posted well for this race and having Paco Lopez ride in this crowded field feels like a big edge. Word for Word (#1) is a horse I’d consider using as well in this race. The pedigree has always been there as he’s a full brother to There Are No Words, who is a multiple stakes placed horse in open company on the turf. He wasn’t putting it together early on in his career, but his last two starts have been two of his better efforts. That coincides with the trainer switch to Jose Sanchez, who might have figured some things out with this California Chrome gelding. He just missed at long odds at this level last time out, and the pace scenario should favor him in this spot. Traffic concerns while breaking from the rail could be his Achilles Heel in this race, but I do think he’s capable of continuing this good run that he’s been on.

Race 12: 

The New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival concludes with a maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares going six furlongs on the main track. It’s hard to get excited about Blue Moon Tide (#4) starting off at 3-2 on the morning line in this race. She was hammered at the windows in her last start at the end of June. She had a mild stumble at the start, which is mentioned in the trouble line, but I didn’t really see that as a huge excuse. She lost that race by over seven lengths as the winner shook clear at the top of the stretch. Eddie Owens is poised to have a big day, but I’m not convinced that this filly is going to be the cherry on top in the nightcap. She has some ability and she’s worth using, but I’m going to try to get better value elsewhere. There is a decent amount of speed in this race, and I’m hopeful that we’ll see Purple Lady Vera (#8) rolling late in this spot. She’s one of two horses that J.T. Servis sends out in this race on behalf of The Adventure Continues Stables LLC. Purple Lu Lu (#6) ran a much better race last time out when making her second start in a dirt sprint. She was three lengths better than Purple Lady Vera when they debuted together in the same race that Blue Moon Tide was last seen in. Servis tried a mile race on the turf for Purple Lady Vera last out, and while she improved from a speed figure point of view, she was still well beaten in that spot. She is bred to be better on the dirt, and I do think she’s a filly that can move forward in her second try on the dirt, especially while cutting back from a route. Purple Lu Lu ran a strong race last time out to be second at this level. She battled early and made the lead on the turn, but she could not hold off Salt and Light. That filly is scheduled to compete in the 3rd race while facing winners for the first time today. If she runs well in that spot, that could certainly be flattering for this Il Postino filly. I’ll put Blue Moon Tide on the B line alongside Autumn’s Turn (#3). I don’t want to invest too much in a filly that is 0-22, and the 4-1 price in the morning line feels too low for my liking. However, there is a lot of speed signed up for this race and she’s a stone cold closer. By the time we get to this point in the day, we’ll have seen seven races on the dirt. If closers are struggling to get home on the dirt, I’ll likely downgrade her. However, I think this is the first time in a while that she’s going to get a pace scenario that favors her running style.

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 76/338 (22.5%), $569.60, $1.69 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)