Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 8/9/26 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll end the weekend with an eight race, Sunday afternoon card at Monmouth. There’s a few nice allowance races and an interesting maiden race for two year olds on this program. First post is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT). Sorry for posting later than usual, one of the handicapping tools that I use was not responding on any of my devices last night, so I had to make some adjustments once I was able to access that data this morning. 

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll get the ball rolling with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course. Deep class droppers are often tough to get behind, however, when the rationale for the drop makes sense, they’re hard to ignore. Souper Document (#4) was purchased for $5K earlier this year and has already earned back 2.5 times that amount in earnings on the racetrack. He ran competitive efforts in maiden allowance races at this distance on the turf before throwing in a clunker in his latest try. Blowing the break certainly didn’t help his chances. He drops to this level where he just looks better than his seven opponents. I think he graduates today. I’ll use Keep’ Em Honest (#8) as a backup in this race. This Honest Mischief gelding has one start and it was not a great effort. He broke well on a sloppy course in New York, but was well out into the track while battling for the lead. The drop in class feels warranted as they experiment with the turf in his second career start. He’s the first foal to race from a dam never tried the turf, but she was speedy. Honest Mischief’s runners are winning 18% of the time in turf sprint races. Horses he’s sired are 7-34 (21%) when trying a turf sprint for the first time and most of these runners are prices. Only one of those seven runners were favored and the average post time odds for these seven runners is 9.26-1.

Race 2:

Two year olds will sprint six furlongs on the dirt in this maiden special weight. I do think there’s something to be said for a horse with a foundation and that is the case with Johnny Hockey (#6). He has three respectable efforts at the Spa, including a 4th place finish at this distance in his last start. He’s been gradually improving and now ships to a softer circuit while still running without a claiming tag. Vicky Royal (#7) is a total wildcard in this race, but I am intrigued. He was bred in Uruguay, and there’s not a wealth of information on some of his family members. The sire, T.H. Approval preferred longer races on the turf, however, he does have 11% winners with his two year olds. There’s not a lot of recent data on horses that he’s sired, since he’s been based in South America. The angle for me here is that his works have been steadily improving in the morning for a barn that has been sharp throughout the meet. The Musketeer (#9) is another interesting newcomer in this field. He’s sired by Practical Joke out of a Temple City mare so there are clearly speed influences in his bloodlines. He gets 15% winners with his debuting runners in dirt sprint races. There are also things to like with him in this wide open affair. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs on the dirt in this $25K-$20K maiden claiming race. This is not the strongest field for this condition here at Monmouth, so there are going to be a few short priced runners that are hard to feel very comfortable backing. However, the alternatives are very enticing in this race. I’ll try to escape with a short priced runner and a first time starter, but this is not my strongest opinion on the card. Kelly Breen is right in the mix for a very interesting battle for the top trainer at the meet, which is likely going to go down to the last few days of the meet. He started off red hot in May, but his runners haven’t been as sharp as the meet has gone on. He’ll send out Mo Probable (#6) in this race, who feels like the most likely winner. She is dropping in class after struggling at two turns in a $30K-$20K maiden claimer at Parx last month. She ran a credible third place in a $40K-$30K maiden claimer here in a sprint in May, which was her first start in eight months. She cuts back to a one turn race while making her third start off the layoff today. I’m thinking that we’ll see a better effort from her in a race where she should be forward. Vino Warrior (#7) is the first time starter that I’ll use in this spot. The dam has foaled one other runner, Cassie’s Vault. She didn’t win at first asking, but she was competitive in her first two starts on dirt sprint races. Vino Rosso gets 8% winners with his firsters in dirt sprint races. Chuck Spina is not great with debuting runners, but he’s capable of having a horse ready to fire at first asking. This is a New Jersey bred filly that is not debuting in a state bred maiden special weight race, which is not something I love to see. However, there has been a reduction in races carded each week during this meet this year, so trainers have had to utilize races like this more frequently. The downside is the purses are definitely lower than the state bred maiden allowances, but the competition can be easier at times (which seems to be the case here) and the horse does get to run without the threat of being claimed. 

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in a beaten $16K-$14K claimer. All the runners here qualified for this race under the N3L condition. There are some horses in this race that do their best work in turf sprints and there are others that don’t. I tend to favor horses that have been successful in these kinds of races. Three runners in this race are coming out of a five furlong race last month for $25K-$20K N3L claimers. Both of my A line runners in this race ran in that spot. I have always contended that since the addition of the 5 ½ furlong chute here at Monmouth, there is a big difference in races at that distance than the 5 furlong sprint races. Both Lucky Twist (#5) and Twirling Express (#6) are horses that are better suited for the 5 ½ furlong distance. Twirling Express won both of his career wins at this distance, albeit on a different course. He was very sharp in his two turf sprints in Maryland back in the fall when facing better competition. He hasn’t been as sharp since moving up to the N3L ranks in June. However, he has been trending up, so at better odds than Lucky Twist, I’d be willing to wager that he’ll continue to progress forward. Lucky Twist was a ¼ of a length better than the top pick last month. He wasn’t as sharp from the gate as he’s been in the past, so he had to try to pass all of the horses last time out. That’s not typically a winning formula when going five furlongs here. He was sharp two back when clearing the N2L condition. Mike Dini has been heating up as he’s been closing in on the top three leaders in the race for top trainer at the meet. 

Race 5:

The late Pick-4 begins with a $5K starter allowance race going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Note that both Denying (#3) and Brave Bear (#7) were cross-entered as MTO’s in a turf race yesterday, but that race stayed on the grass and both runners were forced to defect. Monmouth carded two route races at this condition last month. Tiger Moon (#6) was the winner on 7/12 and We Ready (#2) was the winner on 7/25. If you go back to June, Denying was the winner of a race at this condition on 6/26. These races are all about current form and who can retain that and those three horses that have come out on top aren’t always consistently in form. I’m going to try the Jersey bred, Last Romance (#5) in this race. Cathal Lynch is trying hard to get him back into his 2025 form where he ran well enough to be second in a state bred handicap race. He went off form over the winter and has been gradually working his way back. I like his last two efforts and I think he could be upset minded in this race. We Ready is the winner that I’d want to bet back. His duller efforts tend to come in the colder months, so he might just be a horse that likes the warmer temperatures. He had six in the money finishes on this course before winning for the first time in his 9th trip to Monmouth. He’s had his photo taken ten times in his career. Tiger Moon  is probably worth using as a backup in this race. He’s been very sharp in his last two starts, but the pace scenario was also very kind. Assuming this field stays intact, the competition for the lead should be tougher than it was in his last two starts. He’s going to have to prove he can win if he doesn’t get a sweet setup. 

Race 6:

The first of two optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance races that share the top billing this afternoon is for three year olds and up going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. I think Sam the Sham (#3) is the one they’re going to have to reel in. He’s moving barns and making his first start since March, and while neither of these are great angles for Michelle Castillo, I do think his early foot makes him tough to deal with in this spot. He’s been fast enough to pressure a faster tempo when going 5 1/2 furlongs, so being the one setting the pace may be what he’s looking to do in this race. I loved Jetaros (#2) in a starter allowance race here two weeks ago, however, he didn’t have the easiest stretch run that afternoon and the race winner got the jump on him early on. He ran in in a solid form and is probably the one with the best shot to run them down late. While this is a bump up in class on paper, he fits very well with this group. Pivotal Moment (#8) is the class of this field. He was second best at this level two back, so I think it’s fair to say that he’s met his friends up to this point. I worry about his lack of true tactical speed, especially at a short price here  

Race 7:

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs on the dirt in this optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race at six furlongs on the dirt. Taqdeer (#1) likely has to go from the rail and both Minute By Minute (#4) and Dee’s On Dow (#5) have a good amount of early speed. I’m looking for a horse that could be rolling late and that could be Quality of Essence (#6), who went from last to first two starts back to break her maiden in a $40K-$30K maiden claimer at this distance on this course. After that score, her connections brought her to the Spa where she struggled in a starter allowance race out of the Wilton Chute there. This is a class rest, but I do think she has upside and I’m expecting her to get the right setup today. Minute By Minute might not need the lead, but she will have to prove that she can win if she doesn’t make the lead. She was a winner in her debut last fall in New York. Chad Brown brought her back there to face winners in the spring where she struggled over a fast course that was sealed. She struggled in her most recent start on the turf at Saratoga. I do think a dirt sprint is what she’s going to do best and if she can be patient and stalk the leaders, I think getting the jump on the frontrunners could be a winning formula for her. Foggy Note (#8) is one that is worth thinking about as a backup. She just missed at Delaware in a starter allowance race in her most recent try. She’s another one that could trip out in this race, but I do worry about taking too short of a price on her since she has never won a race on the dirt. All four career wins have come on the synthetic at Gulfstream when going 5 or 5 ½ furlongs. She has never finished off the board in five starts at this distance on dirt though, so she’s definitely one to use in the underneath slots in the vertical exotics. 

Race 8:

We’ll close up for the weekend with the 4th, 5 ½ furlong turf sprint on the card. This one will be for maiden fillies and mares running with a claiming tag of $16K down to $14K. I thought Midnite Bust R Out (#6) was very sharp at long odds here two weeks ago. She was second at this level in a five furlong dash when going off at 54-1. She’s the third choice in the wagering at 7-2 today, so the price is not going to be nearly as good. She figures to be forwardly placed, which has not been a bad thing on this course. I saw enough to think that she can run back to her last race today. Intothemystic (#2) cuts back to a sprint after faltering at two turns in her second career start. Her debut wasn’t bad as there was some mild trouble when finishing third behind a runaway winner. Andrew Wolfsont rode her that day and he’s back in the saddle after not riding her last time out. I’ll also use Maxpower (#3) on the B line here. She’s also cutting back to a sprint after struggling in two turn races at this level in her last two starts. She could wind up loose on the lead, which may not bode well for some of the others here. She still has to prove that she has the stamina to hold on late, but her recent two turn races could be what helps her get there. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 63/239 (26.4%), $374.10 ($1.57 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet