Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday 9/13/26 – By Eric Solomon

We’ve reached the end of the road for the 2026 meeting at Monmouth Park. Paco Lopez hasn’t been as present at this meet, but his impact was felt when he was here. He’s in line for yet another riding title here this summer as he’s scheduled time to ride here on closing day. Jorge Delgado has wrapped up the training title, with a three win lead over Kelly Breen, who only has two horses entered today. Heavy rain was forecasted to come through the area overnight, so don’t be surprised to see an off track and the races carded for the turf moved over to the main track. First post this afternoon is set for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts with a nice maiden special weight race carded for 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Housing Market (#7) is the more desirable runner coming from the Chad Brown barn for this race. He debuted last month at the Spa where he finished an even 6th when going off at 9-2. That was a stronger group than he’s facing here today and having that race under his belt should help him considerably. Resolute (#3) has been a bridesmaid in his last three starts, including a runner up finish in state bred stakes company last month at Penn National. He’s been competitive on this course in the past and should be the main threat. On the dirt, this figures to be a battle between Crazy Diamond (#4) and Oxford Street (#9). These two hooked up here on the dirt last weekend with Oxford Street running a big race in his first career start. Crazy Diamond was making his first start since a third place finish to Publisher on a muddy and sealed course at Oaklawn back in February. He gets Paco Lopez to ride today, although he’s also entered to ride Undertaker (#10), who is a MTO runner. I prefer him in this race, since he has the off track experience. I think it’s asking a lot of Oxford Street to wheel back in seven days after a big debut race. 

Race 2:

10 New Jersey bred two year olds will dash six furlongs in this maiden allowance race. I’ll try one of two first timers in this race and make Coastal Evacuation (#5) the pick. The dam foaled a debut winner here last summer and now she’s been paired with Sea Wizard, who has been a tremendous first out sire in these New Jersey bred maiden sprint races. The works are respectable, despite running for a barn that does not excel with debut runners. Epic Blockage (#2) was a horse I was interested in seeing debut last out and he ran okay to 5th in that spot. He was in chase mode most of the way, and he was getting tired late, but overall, that race should have been an educational debut for him. He’s sired by Yaupon, so I do think his ceiling might be higher than some of the others in here. Control the Time (#1) ran well, despite committing a foul early on which cost him a placing in his last start. He took a step forward in that race where he crossed the wire in third. Paco Lopez taking the mount should upgrade his chances here.

Race 3:

$12,500-$10,500 claimers are scheduled to go  1 1/16 miles on the turf in the race that will start the Jersey Shore 6 with a mandatory payout this afternoon. If this race stays on the turf, I’d have to think the course will be on the softer side and I think would make the morning line favorite, Magical Marriage (#3) very tough to beat. He’s been sharp on some softer courses the last two times that he’s come across them. He was a winner on a good course here two starts back, but he was a bit flat in the one mile race here last time out. I’m thinking this is a good rebound spot. Into It (#8) was not into it last month when running at this level. He’s generally very consistent, but I do worry about Beyers that have been slightly declining throughout his six year old campaign. He’s a deeper saver on the turf, but I do think he could wake up in the slop if that’s the circumstance that he’s facing. Confabulation (#9) is the MTO I’d want to have on my tickets as well if this one comes off the turf. He wants to be forward, which can be a very good thing when this course gets sealed. 

Race 4:

I’m not going to try to beat the favorite, Lovely Cause (#2) in this $10K maiden claimer. Juan Avila excels with new acquisitions. This filly ran okay in her debut here last summer. Paco Lopez wins 48% of his races for Avila at Monmouth, so there are plenty of strong angles to lean into here. I’ll use Thegangsallhere (#4) as the backup in this spot after a strong effort to be third at this level in her last start. Rory Huston was able to keep her in consistent form once she climbed into the 40’s Beyer range. She got back there in her last start, so I’m thinking that she could replicate that here. 

Race 5:

The Last Pick-4 of the meet starts with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race scheduled to go 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. I’m not too high on the favorite, Taraj (#2) in this spot. Delgado has good numbers with runners off long layoffs, but when those numbers are paired with his new acquisitions, his percentages drop to 1-7 (14%). His class droppers in those spots have struggled, as the winner was an allowance horse that went to be Grade 2 stakes placed. This one is trending in the wrong direction. I’ll use T V Man (#5), who finds himself in career best form coming into this race. He cleared the N2L condition two back after a lengthy losing streak. He came back to run a strong race to be 3rd at this level last out. Both of those races came over softer courses. Manoah’s Glory (#7) was a little bit better than the top pick in that same race last out. That was his best effort to date on the turf and as a three year old, he has a higher ceiling than most. He’s a three time winner facing N3L horses here. On the dirt, I’ll give a look to Son of a Slew (#4), who just kissed on the dirt here three starts back. While he has two wins on the turf and zero on the dirt, I do think he’s just as good on the main track. I’d also give a look to Thingamabob (#1). He’s a first time gelding who cleared the N2L condition in a race taken off the turf two starts back. Christian Maragh controlled the tempo with him in that race and he might be able to do the same in this one. 

Race 6:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this open $10K-$9K claiming race. If we’re working with an off track, don’t discount the longshot, Sofster (#1), a mare who consistently steps up her game on wet tracks. While this is a class test, she is a five time winner and two of those scores came on wet tracks. Her recent form is not the best, but she runs for a good barn that has won 22% of their races at this meet. Shadyside (#7) is making her third start off the layoff and coming into this race off a win in beaten claiming company in her last start. She had been in subpar form prior to that effort, so I think that last race could serve as a wake up call for her. My Two Sophia’s (#3) is also coming off a win. She’s moving out of state bred company into open company for her last start of the meet. She’s a horse that does her best work from off the pace. There is some cheap speed in here that could set the table for her.

Race 7:

The featured race of the closing day card is an optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance scheduled for 1 1/16 miles on the turf course. On the grass, I think Right to Win (#9) has an interesting look in here. He’s making his third start of the layoff after running in a pair of tougher races. He didn’t have the best trip in his seasonal debut at Ellis and then he struggled with a good group of $25K claimers at the Spa in his latest start. He moves barns and goes to the Jersey Shore. He’s a six year old gelding, so it still remains to be seen how much he has left in the tank, but he had several races last fall that would be good enough to be right there with these. Mohs (#4) is a consistent eight year old gelding that is also making his third start off the layoff. He’s been solid in his first two tries in some competitive $22K-$20K claimers. He likes this course as four of his six career wins have happened here. He can also handle a softer course, which is a plus on a day like today. On deeper tickets, Orator (#10) is worth considering as well. He broke his maiden four starts ago and he’s been right there in his first three starts against winners. The outside post is not a picnic on this course at this distance, but the best version of him can overcome that. On the dirt, Grouch (#7) feels like a no-brainer here. He was really good at this level at Parx in his last start in a race that was carded for the dirt. While he has turf experience, he’s done all of his best work on the main track. Paco Lopez riding only helps his cause. Rerally (#14) would be worth using in here as well. He’s coming back quickly after posting a career top figure in his latest start. He can handle an off track and he likes the course in general. 

Race 8:

We’ll close the book on the 2026 meet with a $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming race going six furlongs on the dirt. This feels like the right level for Troublemeister (#2) who is making his third start off the layoff. He drops in class after facing $25K-$20K maiden claimers in his first start of the year, which was his first try in almost 2 ½ years. He didn’t show much in that race though. He dropped to a $16K-$14K maiden claimer in a race carded for the turf. That was a two turn race and I’m not sure he was set to go that far at that point in his recovery. I like the drop and the cutback in distance here. If he moves forward a little bit off his last start, he should win this one rather easily. I’ll back up with My Little Nico G (#5), who is yet another runner in his third start off the layoff. He has had the misfortune of running into a pair of dominant winners in his last two starts. He might be succumbing to the same fate again today, assuming Troublemeister is who I think he is. If he isn’t though, he’d be the one I’d think was most likely to step forward here. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 86/319 (27.0%), $514.10 ($1.61 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet