Monmouth Park – Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 9/6/26 – By Eric Solomon

Some heavy rains have been plaguing the Jersey Shore of the last few weeks. However, the last few days have been dry. I was a bit surprised to see the two turf races carded yesterday taken off the grass, so we’ll see what happens today on a card where five of the eight races are carded for the lawn. The featured race is the $100K Red Bank Stakes, which will be contested on the turf. The first of eight races this afternoon is set to go off at 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The Sunday card starts off with a maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies sprinting five furlongs over the turf course. Five of the eight races on the card this afternoon are carded for the grass and the rails will be set at 12 feet for each of those races. There are a few things that I found interesting here. Three of the nine runners entered in this race are New York breds, two of which are trained by Kelly Breen. This is notable because the purse for this race is $37,500 and the purse for the New York bred maiden special weight races at Saratoga this summer was $115K. It doesn’t seem that either Victoria’s Song (#1) or Bustin Border (#5) were ever considered for those races. Breen did start some horses upstate this summer and he had two winners, so I do believe if he thought they were good enough to compete at that level there, he would have had them make the trip. On the other hand, Silvino Ramirez was very interested in trying to get Funny Music (#7) into one of those races, however, she was an AE that was scratched both times. I think at this point, the barn wants her to get a race under her belt. I have some mixed feelings about this one, but he’s going to be a B line play for me at the end of the day. Complexity is only 1 for 19 with his debuting runners in turf sprint races, and that lone winner was his only in the money finisher thus far. Now that horse has gone on to win two stakes races on the turf, so there is talent in that one instance. The nar does well on the turf and with sprinters on the grass, which is working in her favor. The pick for me in here is Our Alchemist (#6) for Cathal Lynch. His horses have been live here all summer long. This one was meant to debut on the turf, but mother nature prevented that from happening. She was 5th in that race after showing a little early zip. Vincent Cheminaud is making the trip to ride this one back, so I do think he’s seeing something with this horse who has been working on the lawn at Fair Hill. There are some things to like with Last Hot Lover (#9) as well. She debuted on the turf and was third behind a smooth winner that day. She’s getting her second try on the lawn for a barn that does well with turf sprinters. I think the far outside post for her here should be to her liking. 

Race 2:

The Early Pick-4 begins with a $5K starter allowance race which drew a field of six. There’s not a lot of speed signed for this race, which could favor Fromanothamutha (#1). Who drew the rail for this one mile contest. He struggled against a sharp $5K N2Y field at Parx last out where they went rather fast for that course in the early stages. He was much sharper here two starts back when he drew off like a good thing to easily dismantle a beaten $5K claiming group. This is a step up, but his best effort is good enough to score here. Denying (#2) is one two runners that Wayne Potts sends out for Brad’s Equine Adventure. He doesn’t have a lot of early speed, but he’s finished in the money if all five starts at this current meet, including a win at this level back in June. While both Surprise Package (#3) and his stablemate, Rerally (#5), had his number last time out, I still appreciate his consistency in a spot where I’m convinced either of those runners will be able to back up their big figures. 

Race 3:

We’re back on the grass for a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race going 5 ½ furlongs. There’s not a lot of turf form to get excited about in this race, so I’ll side with favorite, Draft Riots (#3). He showed some early speed against a sharper group when he faltered as the 3-5 favorite in a maiden special weight race here in May at this distance. While that field wasn’t a great field for that condition, it was a much sharper group than he’s facing here. This is a big drop for him, but seeing as how he was purchased for $11K at auction last month, this feels like a logical place for him to be. I’m not sure anyone can catch him in this group. I’ll use Battle Lou (#2) as the backup. He was a distant second to Skyrish at this level last time out. That one came back to score again last weekend, which tells you that he really was much the best in that race. He has solid turf numbers, but those came in two turn races. When looking at his pedigree, I’d think he’d more more comfortable in route races, so I’m a little surprised to see him sprinting here. If the favorite comes up empty, I still think he has the best shot of the rest. 

Race 4:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $40K-$30K maiden claiming race going six furlongs on the main track. Yauprissy (#3), Cuddy’s Lucky (#4), and Scrambler (#5) all faced each other on 8/21, finishing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, respectively, in a race at this same condition. This trio is back to face a quartet of New Jersey breds this afternoon. Scrambler was the favorite that day while dropping out of maiden special weight company and making his first start since March. He was a little aggressive coming off the bench and he forced the issue in the early stages with Cuddy’s Lucky, who has much more natural speed. Scrambler had trouble keeping pace, but they also softened things up for Shozan and Yauprissy, who were both debuting for Terri Pompay that day. I think these three are better than the other four runners in this race, but I find it hard to separate them. The pace might be a little more friendly for Cuddy’s Lucky today, which will lead me to put him on top. Scrambler should be more effective in this race today. He looked like he was quite warm last out and he seemed to want no part of being down on the rail. Drawing outside may help him here. Since Yauprissy was a little slow to break last out, he could be the one that applies pressure to Cuddy’s Lucky in the early stages today, which could give Scrambler the perfect stalking trip. Yauprissy makes start two abd was better than both of these runners last time out. There’s reason to believe he’ll be better today, so I need him on the A line as well. 

Race 5, The $100K Red Bank Stakes:

The featured race drew an interesting group for this one mile turf contest. I think Spellcast (#6) could get the run of the race today. He’s a five year old gelding that knows how to win races. He just missed in the PA Governors Cup at Penn National three weeks ago. He’s drawn outside of the the two Jersey breds, J J Zo Zo (#1) and There Are No Words (#2), who figure to be battling for the lead. Rocco Bowen comes in to ride him, and I think he can sit off their flanks and make a three wide bid to get the jump on the back markers. Souper Forces (#5) is a closer that will benefit from a strong early pace, should it develop. He made his first start of the year in a sprint at Presque Isle Downs last month, which was clearly designed to set him up for a fall/winter campaign. He won the Showing Up Stakes at Gulfstream in November when coming from off the pace, but he suffered his first loss in th eTropical Park Derby when he had a rough trip. Expect his late move to be stronger in this spot today. Win for the Money (#4) is clearly the class of this field. He was the winner of the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile in 2024, but he’s been winless since. He’s a seven year old gelding whose form has tailed off a bit. He’s going to be well backed and his back class is worth keeping him on some tickets, however, I think there’s more upside with the top two picks here. 

Race 6:

We’ll launch the $3 Late Pick-3 with an optional $20K claiming/conditional allowance going six furlongs on the main track. All eyes are going to be on Amberjack (#2), who has a pair of strong efforts in maiden races here and at Delaware. His graduation race was good enough for him to try Grade 1 company in the H. Allen Jerkens, however, he’s not cut from the same cloth as Englishman is. Then again, there’s not many racehorses out there that are. Once it was clear that he wasn’t going to beat the first four finishers in that five horse affair, he wasn’t asked for much in the final ¼ mile. However, this is a quick turnaround after shipping up to the Spa to face one of the fastest three year olds in the last decade or so. For me, this race will come down to whether or not Empire Sky (#4) can be as effective here as he’s been at Parx the few times he’s been there. He doesn’t always show up, as was the case last time out when he finished off the board with state bred first level allowance types at Saratoga. However, he has two impressive scores with comparable fields at Parx in the last 12 months and if that horse shows up here at the Jersey Shore, I think he can beat the favorite. 

Race 7:

The $5 Late Double will consist of a pair of grass races, starting with this optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race for New Jersey bred fillies and mares going one mile. Joann Bertone doesn’t train a lot of winners, but I do think her three year old filly, Creative Stuff (#9) has a good look to her. She was sharp three starts back at this level when she finished a close second to Summer Flower. She came back a week later and shot for the moon in the Grade 3 Matchmaker Stakes where she had no shot against Grayosh. She came back to this level but that race was taken off the turf, which was not to her liking. She’s clearly a better runner on the grass, and I think she could get a sweet stalking trip with this field. Starview Twinkle (#2) and One Fine Wine (#11) could both be sent for the lead in this race. However, outside of this dup, there’s not a ton of early speed signed on. Starview Twinkle is going to be overlooked since she hasn’t gone two turns on the turf since September at the Meadowlands. She was caught late that night when facing a decent group of open allowance types. She might be able to beat One Fine Wine to the front and if that one is forced to stalk, this mare could have things her own way up front. That has been a successful recipe on this course at this rail setting over the last few weeks. One Fine Wine is posted wide for her two turn return. She usually puts in a solid effort, but she has finished second or third nearly four times more often than she has won a race. She’s more of a backup for me. 

Race 8:

We’ll close out the card with an open $12,500-$10,500 claiming race going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. I think Wora (#5) is the one to beat in this spot. It’s been over a year since he’s been on the turf, but his grass races last summer were solid. For the most part, he’s been holding his own on the dirt. He likes to win races and he’s been able to win on fast dirt, wet dirt, synthetic, and turf. He’s an eight year old gelding that may have lost a step, but I think he’s good enough to handle these. The alternative for me is Peruvian Lucky (#2) whose breaks from the two hole. He looked rather pleased to get back on the turf after a steady diet of dirt races at Tampa. He’s been sharp in route races on this course and if there were a two turn race, he’d probably be a lone single for me. He does have a win in three tries at this distance, but I do worry a bit that he’s going to leave himself too much work to do in the final stages of this one. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 86/319 (27.0%), $514.10 ($1.61 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet