Monmouth Park Racing Preview – 8/19/22 – By Eric Solomon

Another week of racing gets underway at the Jersey Shore with another eight race program. This is one of the deepest Friday’s of the meet with three solid allowance races on the card in the 2nd, 4th, and 7th races and a pair of maiden special weight races on the grass. There’s also a pair of interesting maiden special weight races on the turf in the 1st and 6th races. First post this Friday is 2:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the second straight year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1: 

The day starts with a maiden special weight contest going 1 mile and 1/16 on the grass for fillies and mares. To me, Yarborough (#7) is the one to beat in her second career start. She was a bit flat-footed when breaking that day, and Paco Lopez allowed her to settle off a slow pace. She was defeated by a well-meant Chad Brown first time starter who had the better trip. I thought she finished well while responding nicely when he asked her to go through a hole on the rail. Seeing Paco wind up on her as opposed to the Pletcher runner, Charging Lady (#8), who he rode to a third place finish last out, is telling to me. I do think Charging Lady is worth considering on deeper tickets with Jairo Rendon riding. Rendon has earned more rides for Pletcher, winning three of five times they’ve paired up at the meet. She tried the grass after a pair of dirt starts to begin her career, and ran a much better race last time. Like the top pick, she fell victim to a different Chad Brown firster in that race. Tiz Kobe Time (#3) is a longer priced runner that might be worth a look in this spot. While his pedigree doesn’t scream turf, his two grass races are better than his two dirt starts. He’s been on the shelf since December and he’ll make his first start for JT Servis today. He might need this one, but he’s certainly not impossible. 

Race 2:

Three year old fillies go one mile in this N1X allowance race. I found this one to be very tough to figure out. Regal Realm (#1) has three big turf races in a row, any of which would likely beat this group. However, there’s no guarantee her form on turf will translate to the main track, and she’ll likely be a short price, starting off at even money on the morning line. I’ll use her because there is enough dirt influence in her pedigree and she’s proven that she’s capable at two turns. However, I ended up on Lady Baffled (#6) on top, coming off a strong third place finish at this level last month. She set a moderate pace while going off at 18-1 in a five horse race. When she was caught late by a pair of horses, Tap the Faith and Frippet, that would likely be even money or less with this field. She clearly needed that race, making her first start in three months that day. She’s been working well for Sweezy, but she’ll likely need to be able to change tactics to beat this field, since others drawn inside of her look to be quicker early on. She did win in her second career start while rating off the early pace, so I see her as the best option here. On deeper tickets, I think both the stretch out sprinters Li’l Miss Camille (#2) and Paper Mansion (#4) are worth considering. Both fillies are the only multiple winners in the field and both are trying two turns for the first time. Paper Mansion is sired by the Chilean bred Tu Brutus, and there’s not too many runners in training sired by him. However, he was an interesting runner that is having moderate success with the few runners that he has on the track, mostly at smaller circuits. He ran a monster Beyer back in 2017 when losing to Todd Pletcher’s Send It In in the 10 furlong Excelsior Stakes at Aqueduct. The following month, he dominated the Flat Out Stakes at Belmont, winning by 11 lengths when going 11 furlongs. The stamina influence is certainly there from the sire side of the pedigree, while the dam did most of her work sprinting. Li’l Miss Camille is sired by 2017 Preakness winner, Exaggerator, and also has a dam that was more of a sprinter in her day. Both fillies like to be forwardly placed and both trainers have good numbers with runners going from sprints to routes. On paper, I slightly prefer Paper Mansion, but I think Li’l Miss Camille might get the better trip. 

Race 3:

As $10K maiden claiming races go here, this field is slightly above average for the condition. There are three standouts that appear to have an advantage on paper over the other four runners. Dakota Boy (#6) is making his 10th career start today, which is not a quality I love in maiden races. However, only two of those nine tries have come on traditional dirt. He ran six times on the synthetic and once on the turf at Gulfstream before switching to the main track. His effort with $12,500 maiden claimers two back was strong. He regressed a bit last time out, fading late after being sent to battle for the early lead in a seven furlong race. I like the cut back to six furlongs and leading trainer Claudio Gonzalez has won with 21% of his runners at this current meet. I think he’s quick enough to set the pace in this race where there isn’t a ton of early speed. Robbedinthebahamas (#3) is coming off a pair of second place finishes at this level here and at Penn National. He was beaten by a clear cut winner in both races. This is his third start off his current form cycle and his third start outside of Florida. I expect another solid try from him. Wine Time (#1) is the X-factor with Paco Lopez riding. I was playing against horses like this last week, and it felt like more often than not, Paco was beating me. His lone dirt start was sharp at this condition three back. He’s been on the turf in his last two, never running a step in his most recent try. He’ll need to show he can rebound from that non-effort. I suspect his price when they go into the gate will be lower than I’m willing to accept. 

Race 4:

This is a deep optional $30K claiming/N2X allowance field for three year olds and upward going 1 mile and 1/16 on the turf. Dominate Themoment (#6) got away with a leisurely opening half mile before drawing off in the stretch while running with a comfortable lead throughout the race when clearing the N1X condition on the Haskell undercard. I think there’s no way the Paco Lopez, who will be riding It Can Be Done (#4), will concede the lead to Nik Juarez and Dominate Themoment  here. As a result, I think this will be a difficult spot for both of these runners, and it will set the table for a runner to come from off the pace. Mt Suribachi (#7) was overlooked when running a strong third last out in an optional $50K claiming/N3X allowance race. He was entered in that race with some stakes caliber runners, despite being eligible for this N2X condition. He certainly didn’t embarrass himself at that level back on July 29th. He’s getting a bit of class relief as this is an above average group for this condition here. He’s been knocking on the door while improving with each start this year. I think he can get it done. Lonesome Fugitive (#3) is likely going to be the post time favorite for Chad Brown in this spot. This barn has been on fire with his runners at this meet since a monster Haskell Day. He just missed to He’spuregold on this course at this level two back. Brown brought him back to New York for his next start where he was five wide off the turn when finishing a decent 4th. He is very logical with this group. I will cover with It Can Be Done on deeper tickets because I think he has a higher ceiling than some of the others in this spot. He was graded stakes placed twice as a three year old and stakes placed last year on this course. His first two efforts as a four year old have been a little disappointing. Paco Lopez does get the call for the first time, and I expect him to aggressively protect his inside position. It has been challenging to gain ground from off the pace when the rails are at 36 feet on this course, so if he can put away Dominate Themoment, he might be tough to run down.

Race 5:

We’ll wrap up the Win-Early Pick-5 with an optional $12,500 claiming/$6,250 starter allowance contest going 1 mile and 70 yards on the main track. I’m going to side with Friendly Fella (#5) to get his third straight victory. He’s been dominant in his last two starts and appears to be headed back to his consistently good form that Claudio Gonzalez had him in last year. Half of his eight career wins have come on this oval. He likes to be forwardly placed and has a running style that should play very well with this group. I don’t trust Trappezoid (#6) at two turns in this spot, and the horses that Rob Atras has brought here have not performed well to say the least. Indian Buzz (#4) and Flowers for Lisa (#7) are both coming off subpar efforts in their latest outings. Of that duo, Flowers for Lisa is the one more likely to regain his better form in my eyes. I was willing to use him as a single in this spot two weeks ago when he caught a muddy a track and didn’t fire. He’s been beaten handily in his last two starts though, so it will depend what type of value I can get on him in this spot. I do see some value there if goes off around his 6-1 morning line figure. I’d upgrade him if his odds float over that number. 

WIN-EARLY PICK-5, $54 Ticket:

This $54 play is going to come down to Friendly Fella (#5, R5) hopefully being able to win his third straight race in the last leg. I didn’t want to go four deep in the second race, because I do like Lady Baffled (#6, R2) a decent amount. However, there’s a lot of unknown commodities in that race and the potential for Regal Realm (#1, R2), Li’l Miss Camille (#2, R2), or, Paper Mansion (#4, R2) to run a big race while routing on the dirt for the first time, is there.

Race 6:

The last Pick-3 opportunity for the afternoon begins with a maiden special weight race for three year olds and up, going 1 mile and 1/16 on the turf course. Six of the nine runners from the 7/31 race at this condition are back for today’s contest. There were a lot of interesting trips in that race after some heavy bumping at the break caused Richard Mitchell aboard Staff Sergeant (#4) to lose his irons and fall off his mount going into the first turn. American Day (#2) was also severely impacted by the bumping at the break. The challenge for this race is trying to figure out who is going to be the leader going into the first turn,, because I’m not sure there’s anyone who wants to be there. Rock the Stars (#8) had the best trip of anyone last time out and he was narrowly defeated by Hashtag No Wonder, who was also adversely affected at the start. He draws wide today though and benefitted from the misfortune of some of the others that day. He’ll likely draw a decent amount of wagering attention, but I’m going to try to beat him today, because there’s not much that separates him from the many of his rivals here. Both Prince of Troy (#3) and Hooky Player (#7) are likely to be near the front end and both are improving runners that are likely to be right there at the end of this one. I’ll give the slight edge to Hooky Player. He was alongside Staff Sergeant prior to Mitchell falling off and Rodriguez had to keep him wide. He was floated about four wide on the first turn to avoid that one, and while Rodriguez was able to save ground into the second turn, I think the ground lost out of the chute and the first turn was enough to account for the 2 and ½ lengths that Rock the Stars was in front of him at the wire. Prince of Troy ended up three wide early despite breaking from Post 4 that day, possibly as a result of being jostled around at the break. He ran an even race, also conceding some ground to Rock the Stars. He’s shown improvement in his last two tries and may be the one most likely to dictate the terms on the front end. Timo (#6) is a new face to the local division, coming off a 5th place finish in his debut when going 11 furlongs at Saratoga last month. Blinkers go on for his second career start, both of which are positive angles for his trainer, Jonathan Thomas. This barn has won with 7 of 18 starters, finishing second with another 5. Anything he sends out right now must be respected. On deeper tickets, I’ll consider American Day as a horse that I’ll cover with. He was very good three back when finishing second to a nice Todd Pletcher colt, Tap the Gavel, at this level. He tried stakes company two back and was overmatched that day. He was all but eliminated the break last time, so I’d be willing to forgive that race. He gets a trainer and rider upgrade, now conditioned by Rafael Schistl and ridden by Hector Diaz. He’s probably one that is better suited for underneath, but at long odds, he’s worth considering taking a small chance with. He’s listed at 20-1 on the morning line, which feels too high for a horse that has shown ability to run a race that would be competitive with a group like this. 

Race 7:

We have an interesting optional $16K claiming/N1X allowance contest that features the return of a New York based runner that I’m interested in seeing, Fromanothamutha (#3). He’s been facing some high quality three year olds, losing to future stakes winners Chattalot and My Prankster to start his career. He ran into the eventual Wood Memorial and Belmont winner, Mo Donegal, losing twice to him in a maiden race and the Remsen. His maiden breaking performance was solid, handily defeating an overmatched field at Aqueduct in January, while posting a gaudy 87 Beyer Speed Figure. He struggled while going back to graded stakes company, losing to Morello and Wit in his last two starts, before taking a little break. Handal hits the reset button and places him much more conservatively to restart his three year old campaign. He might need this race before we see his best, but I think he’s been facing horses that are significantly better than what his rivals have been up against. A strong effort here might put him on track for the Gallant Bob Stakes next month at Parx. There is speed for him to contend with and he along with some others here have never won a race when another runner has been in front of them. Taking that into consideration, I’ll cover with Mi Tres Por Ciento (#9), who is coming off a huge effort with optional claiming/starter allowance company in his last start two months ago. Initially, Englehart had planned to wheel him back 2 and ½ weeks later in a race on July 8th, however, he opted to give him some more time off after that big performance. Six furlongs is his best distance, winning 8 of 26 career starts at this trip. He is capable of rating off the early pace, and his outside draw should allow him to do so comfortably. 

Race 8:

The Friday card will conclude with a conditioned $12,500-$10,500 claiming race at 1 mile and 1/16 on the main track. All eight runners qualify under the N3L condition. While it’s not the only factor that I’ll consider here, the trainer of Shimmering Light (#3), Jose Sanchez, has won 23% of his races in 2022 (44% at Monmouth). The other six trainers have a combined 7.8% win percentage this year (4.4% at Monmouth). The horse has run three times on dirt in his 12 race career. The first time was in the slop against state bred $40K maiden claimers at Belmont in October where he had a miserable trip in a race that was originally scheduled for the turf. He had a smoother journey in the slop here two starts back when breaking his maiden with $16K-$14K maiden claimers in another race taken off the grass. He faced conditioned $12,500-$10,500 last time, which was a race for three year olds or older runners that had never won twice. That was the first race where he intended to run on dirt and his first career start on a fast track. He was a handy winner that afternoon, where he was much the best. He is moving up in class, but he’s not facing that strong of a group here. He clearly has found a home on the dirt and figures to be tough to beat while trying to win his third straight start. I’ll cover with the Parx invader, Kith (#1) on deeper plays here. He drew the rail versus a similar field at this level two starts back and nearly wired that group. He cut back to seven furlongs last out and finished third, while regressing considerably from a speed figure standpoint. Two turn racing is definitely his game, and I’d be surprised if he wasn;t on the front end with his rail draw. If speed is playing well on the main track in the earlier races, I’d definitely consider upgrading him. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 105/404 (26.0%) – $804.20/ $1.99 ROI