Eight races on a Monday afternoon will wrap up the week of racing at Monmouth Park in Oceanport, New Jersey. The featured race of the afternoon comes in Race 4, which is an optional $25K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds and upward, sprinting 5 and ½ furlongs on the main track. The Monday-Mid-Atlantic Pick-4 collaborative wager with Colonial Downs, rolls on with another all-turf event that starts with Monmouth’s 5th race, scheduled to go off at 3:49 (ET). Keep an eye on the weather and the changes when they come out as there is rain in the forecast this afternoon. First post for the day is 2:00 (ET).
I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the second straight year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 3 | 3,4,5 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 8 | 1,4,6,8 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 1,6 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK 5 | |
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK4 |
| 6 | 2 | 2,4,5 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 7 | 2 | 2,6 | 4 | DBL | |
| 8 | 3 | 3,4 |
Race 1:
The day begins with an interesting condition that I don’t remember seeing in the last few years. We have a New Jersey bred claiming race where horses that have never won twice are running with a $75K tag, going one mile on the main track. I’ve been a fan for Kratos (#3) since seeing him for the first time on this course last June. He’spuregold, who has gone on to win multiple stakes races on the turf, was a massive favorite in that race, and Kratos, as a second time starter, dueled with him the whole way, losing by a neck that afternoon. He would win his next start as a heavy favorite, but has not won a race since, despite several quality efforts. Most of his races have been on the turf, but he’s shown he’s more than capable on the main track. He was a game second last out despite being wide every step of the way in state bred, optional claiming/allowance company, finishing a head better than Cash Kid (#1). He makes his third start off the layoff, where I feel we should see one of his better efforts. I don’t see anyone that will challenge him for the early lead and I see him as a gate to wire candidate in this race today, and one of the most likely winners on the card.
Race 2:
Three year olds sprint six furlongs in this N1X allowance race. I think Talented Man (#3) has some upside in this spot as one of the longer prices in this race. Michael Moore, who is based mostly at Parx, has run seven times at this meet, winning with four and hitting the board two other times. This gelded son of Talent Search is the only three time winner in this field. He beat conditioned $25K claimers two back and won in optional claiming/allowance company at Parx in April while running with a $40K tag, thus keeping him eligible for this race. He had a few dud races in between those victories, but in both of those races, a bad start did him in. He tried the turf last out and ran a respectable second. He’s proven on dirt and I think he could sit the right trip beyond some tiring horses setting the pace on the front end. Coppola (#4) cost the Starlight/Madaket conglomerate $800K at the Keeneland Select Sale in 2020. For a horse that cost so much, I don’t think the plan was to debut at Delaware in the summer of his three year old season. He did run like a horse that has ability though, and Jaime Rodriguez, who has won 23% of his races in 2022, and currently has a commanding lead in the jockey standings at Delaware Park, is scheduled to make this trip to ride this well-bred son of Into Mischief. Moving Pictures (#5) ran into a much more experienced runner when losing to Cyberviking on this course at this condition last month. While the track was very fast that day, they stopped the clock in 1:08:1 in that race, which is still a serious racehorse time. Paco Lopez is riding in the state bred stakes heavy card at Parx today, so apprentice Jose Gomez, who has looked good on this course with limited chances, did get the call. Unfortunately, he tested positive for COVID yesterday and will be off his mounts today. On deeper tickets, I’ll cover with Penetrator (#1). The outer part of this course has been better over the last few days, so in a race where there’s other speed signed on. That may go out the window if the track comes up muddy or sloppy though. He’s been away since the end of May when he was off the board when going one mile at this condition. He was third behind a very nice horse, Little Vic, two starts back. He’s worth covering on deeper tickets in this spot today.
Race 3:
I don’t have a strong opinion in this maiden special weight race for two year olds that were sold or RNA for $50K or less. Awesomebrotherbill (#8) is the top pick after a game effort to be 5th when making his debut with open maiden special weight types on the Haskell undercard. The runner up, El De Chimi, was a dominant winner yesterday when going one mile on the main track. Tony Wilson and Happy Tenth Stable had their first two year old winner in at least five years yesterday, when winning the race for fillies at the same condition. Jose Camejo has a pair of runners that appear to be live. Login Required (#6) is by Race Day, who gets 14% with his first time starters. The dam, Miss Fontana was a winner in her first career start. Samuel Marin, who has ridden for Camejo in the past, gets the call here, where Jorge Vargas, who has not ridden for Camejo, ends up on Going in Style (#4). That one is sired by Mastery, who only gets 6% with his first time starters, although he is one for two with firsters on this course. The works for this one are slightly faster than his stablemate. I’ll also use Okletsgo (#1) for Greg Sacco. He’s sired by Klimt, who hits with 13% of his first timers. He drilled a sharp 47:4 work here a few weeks ago, which is faster than any other worker in this race. The rail is not ideal, but he’s another one with a shot here. I’ll try to beat the morning line favorite, Yeager (#3). He’s sired by Air Force Blue, who does surprisingly well with dirt sprinters. However, the dam was a turf horse, so I do think at short odds, I’ll wager that he’d prefer to run on the grass.
Race 4:
The feature race today is an optional $25K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds and upward going 5 and ½ furlongs on the main track. There is a lot of early speed signed on in this evenly matched contest. Stratofortress (#6) has been second in all four of his races at this meet. He’s been right on the early pace in his last four starts, and just hasn’t been able to get to the better of whichever rival he was up against that day. When he was finding his best stride at Oaklawn over the winter and spring, Geovanni Franco was riding him with more patience, letting him sit in third or fourth, a few lengths behind the pacesetter, before making his run for the lead. I think that’s going to be the winning style for this race, and I think that’s the formula for breaking his string of second place finishes. While I’ll make him the top pick, I’ll look to try to find a few others that could get the job done. Legal Deal (#1) would get the biggest upgrade if there is an off track. He’s trying to win back to back races after confidently defeating an optional claiming/starter allowance group at Delaware last month. He’s been a consistent runner on the main track, and while the rail is not ideal, I think he can sit a decent trip with this group. If speed is doing well in the first few races, Aristocratic (#3) would be the likely one to upgrade, thinking that he is the quickest of the quick. He’s faded in his last three, but is running in his second race off the layoff. The open $40K claiming races at Saratoga are very salty, so this is not really a bump up in class.
Race 5:
If this conditioned $16K-$14K conditioned claiming race stays on the turf, I like Rye Sense of Humor (#4) quite a bit. He was a winner with optional $16K/$16K starter allowance company last time out at Parx. He had a tough trip in his previous turf try there when he was wide in a 7 and ½ furlong race at that same condition. I think he can stalk the early pace and make a run on the pacesetters in the stretch. He’d also be a player in this race if it were moved to the main track. I’ll cover with Tetragrammaton (#5) who ended up having a very sweet trip last time out at this level, despite breaking from post ten. He was able to clear quite easily, without having to be asked too hard. He controlled a sensible pace and battled back gamely when Comedic Timing looked him in the eye and actually had the lead at one point. It was a roughly run stretch drive, but he somehow wound up on top. (Full disclosure…that was by far the toughest beat of the meet for me). He is a consistent runner though, which many of these here cannot say. On deeper tickets, I’ll give a look to Double David (#7), hoping that his non-effort last time out was an aberration. In stark comparison to Tetragrammaton, his score here on 5/28 was one of my best hits at this current meet. He moved up in class two starts back and ran a credible effort against a salty field. If his odds float up over his 8-1 figure, I’d be willing to take another shot with him today. He did scratch out of his race on 8/20 in favor of this spot.
WIN-EARLY PICK-5, $48 Ticket
I’ll get the single out of the way early with this ticket, taking Kratos (#3, R1) to start the day. I’ve been a fan of this horse and I think he has a definitive pace advantage over his rivals in that race. I’ll spread deep in the middle legs, especially the third race, which I find to be a very tough two year old contest. I do like Rye Sense of Humor (#4, R5) in the final leg of this sequence, which is also the first leg in the Monday Mid-Atlantic Pick-4. I will cover with Tetragrammaton (#5, R5) though in that race, refusing to let him beat me twice (The cover photo on today’s post is from the race where he broke my heart last month).
Race 6:
I’m going to try beat the morning line favorite, Exchequer (#3) in this conditioned $5K claiming race at 1 mile and 70 yards on the main track. My rationale is that he was re-claimed by Patricia Farro for $8K on 6/17 after losing him for the same tag in the start prior to that. He was crushed twice in starter allowance company in his last two starts. He didn’t run that bad two back when Rough Sea freaked and ran a monster race. His most recent try was dull though. Seeing as how she re-claimed him, my thought is that dropping him to a level below his tag suggests that age might feel that he is not as sharp as he was when he was last in her barn. Uncle Ned (#2) gets top billing for me, making his first start off the Jose Camejo claim. Camejo has been rock solid with runners first off the claim, most recently scoring with Magic Surprise on the Haskell undefcard last month. He crushed a similar field at this level three starts ago. He was second to Exchequer in that June 17th race. I think he can turn the tables on that one today. Jeffrey Englehart was off to a brutal start at this meet, but his barn has started to heat up, scoring twice on yesterday’s card, upping his win total at the meet to six. He sends out I Love Jaxson (#5) out for the second time at this meet. He was a handy winner with similar last out on August 5th. He’s won 25% of his career races and looked very comfortable at this two turn trip last time out. This is a barn that has won 21% of their races this year, but his runners may offer some value after a miserable stretch in May, June, and July here. Arrivederci (#4) makes his third start off the layoff this afternoon. He was a dominating winner with time restricted $5K claimers at the beginning of the month at Parx. He did struggle in his next start after his last dominant performance, however, he had a few spots of legitimate trouble that day, offering a fair excuse. He was sharp in both starts on this oval in 2021.
Race 7:
The third leg of the Monday Mid-Atlantic Pick-4 is a $16K-$14K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares, three and up, dashing five furlongs on the grass. I think Only Danielle (#2) is going to be tough to beat in this spot. She was a winner with $30K-$25K maiden claimers two back when making her local debut and her first try in a turf sprint. She faltered when facing conditioned claimers on the dirt for that same tag last time out. She drops in class and comes back to grass where she looks like a horse that could sit the right trip today. Hollendorfer’s barn continues to win at this meet, making a run at Claudio Gonzalez for the local training title. Nonna Patrizia (#6) outran her long odds when she finished 4th at this level last out. Apprentice Madeline Rowalnd is riding with a lot of confidence right now. Her two turf sprints are better than most of her dirt efforts, and I wouldn;t be shocked to see this young three year old filly take another step forward. Half Birthday (#4) is one that I’ll want to cover with coming in from New York and dropping in class for Tom Morley. Her two races in turf sprints this spring were solid, but her last two starts have been disappointing. She faced open $35K N2L claimers at Saratoga last out and split the 11 horse field, finishing a non-threatening 6th. She has improved her overall form considerably since moving to turf sprints, so perhaps this level will be to her liking. Ifthis race gets switched to the dirt, Herald Angel (#8), being sired by Exaggerator, should relish a muddy or sloppy course. All 13 starts have come on the turf, but I could see her having an impact on an off track. The main track only entrant, Devious (#9) would also be a major player. I’d likely look to her as the top pick if the course was good or fast. She broke her maiden on the dirt at Laurel last out, and would fit against whatever would be left over with this field.
Race 8:
The week of racing wraps up with a $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming race at six furlongs. This doesn’t seem like a race where I’ll try to get too cute. I’ll try the second choice, Prince of Fenton (#3) on top while shipping in from Saratoga today. He ran into a 1-5 class dropper, Drink the Wind, two weeks ago at the Spa. That one went on to win that $20K maiden claiming race by 22+ lengths, absolutely pouring it on down the stretch. The drop in class and the circuit switch makes sense, especially seeing as those suspect droppers are commonplace in $20K maiden claimers throughout the Saratoga meet. Reckless Place (#4) is a major class dropper, but one that doesn’t strike me as overly suspicious. He’s a homebred for Dennis Drazin, who is the head of Monmouth Park. The horse makes his 12th career start, taking a significant drop today, last seen running for a $30K tag. He’s a homebred that has already earned $42K on the track, so while the barn may be preparing to bid him adieu, the goal seems to be to have a picture of him in the Winner’s Circle before doing so.
Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 110/432 (25.5%) – $830.60/ $1.92 ROI
