Monmouth Park Racing Preview – 8/27/22 – By Eric Solomon

The $200K Sapling Stakes, which gives two year olds a chance to compete in a two turn stakes race for the first time this season on the dirt, is the headliner of this 11 race Saturday card. It’s interesting that Javier Castellano, who is a six-time winner of the Travers Stakes, a race which goes at Saratoga this afternoon, is planning on spending his afternoon in Oceanport, New Jersey. That tells me that he is very high on the Todd Pletcher two year old, Lost Ark, who will almost certainly go into the gate as the post time favorite. First post for the Saturday card is 12:15 (ET).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the second straight year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll get the card started with an optional $50K claiming/N2L allowance race for two year olds going 5 and ½ furlongs on the main track. Wild Mule (#4) was electric when winning his debut by over seven lengths last month in a state bred maiden special weight contest. He was patiently handled that afternoon, allowed to settle off the early leaders before coming with a powerful three wide bid. He’s not bred for two turns, so skipping the Sapling for a race like this makes a lot of sense.. Albin Jimenez has filled in nicely in the recent absence of Isaac Castillo, who is still recovering from injuries sustained in a spill in July. Rol Again Dancer (#6) makes his 4th start of the meet after an improving three pattern which ended up with a handy maiden special weight victory here last month. He’s been working well for Delgado, drilling a four furlong bullet last week ahead of this start. He might be the fastest early on in this one. John Rigatteri doesn’t have the same large stable he did a few years back, but he is still winning at a 21% clip while racing primarily in Maryland and Delaware. He brings a pair of maiden claiming winners up from Delaware today that could loom large in this race. Bright Forecast (#1) was definitely the more impressive winner of the pair, pulling clear, ahead of a next out winner when breaking his maiden at the end of June. He finished in front of Caughtandcollected (#5) that afternoon when running as a coupled entry. Caughtandcollected came back to win at that level, closing with a powerful four wide run. Paco Lopez winds up on this one over Bright Forecast, which is an intriguing choice to me. 

Race 2:

Several professional maidens go to post in this $40K-$30K maiden claiming race going 1 mile and 1/16 on the turf course. I think Kingdom on Paws (#5) can turn the tables on Tap the Candy (#6) in this one. They met about three weeks ago with Tap the Candy finishing about ¼ of a length in front of Kingdom on Paws. Kingdom on Paws had the much tougher journey that afternoon, breaking from the outside stall and going four wide into the first turn. He was still grinding home late to be third. Blinkers go on this afternoon and he draws inside of his rival this time. I thought his other effort on this course was better than it looked when facing a solid maiden allowance field back in May. He’s trending in the right direction and may offer more value than Tap the Candy, who I’ll still cover with. With the exception of his effort with maiden special weight company at Tampa, his races on the grass have been solid. His three efforts on this course have all been about the same though, showing little improvement. He’s definitely a contender, but he’s a tough sell to me at 5-2 or lower. 

Race 3:

Juan Avila and Cathal Lynch are both trainers that have high win percentages with two year olds and they both send out a pair of runners in this five furlong maiden special weight race on the dirt. Avila has unveiled six two year olds this year, winning with three of them on debut, Another runner, El de Chimi was second in his first start and won in his second race. He sends out El de Chirel (#5) and Global Surprise (#7) in this race. From a pedigree standpoint, El de Chirel is supposed to be the better runner, but I don’t like the gaps in his recent worktab, going from July 2nd to August 13th without a published workout, and then showing up here after his 8/13 drill. Global Surprise, on the other hand, has a steady progression of regular works going back to the end of June. He drilled a four furlong bullet two weeks ago, working over a second faster than his stablemate. The dam won both of her career races in two turn turf races though, and her only other foal to race has not won. His workouts make him a contender that I’ll use, but at short odds, I’ll try to beat him. Recruiter (#2) also has a solid foundation working regularly at Fair Hill before moving to Delaware for his last breeze. Horses sired by Army Mule are winning at a 19% clip on the main track. While he’s getting only 10% with his debut runners, his offspring are running well on this course. The Avila barn has been red hot, so that may help keep his price from going lower than his 3-1 morning line figure. I’ll also use Evey’s Candy (#4) in this race, making his second start for Scott Lake. If this race were run at six furlongs, he’d likely be my top pick. He was slow into stride and green throughout his debut at Parx. He did make up some decent ground late to get into third. Perhaps that experience will help him moving forward. While I think the cutback in distance is not ideal, he might show more early interest in his second professional outing. 

Race 4:

Conditioned $30K-$25K claimers sprint six furlongs here. It’s interesting that this race is being run this week as scratches reduced another race at this condition last weekend to a field of three. If this seven horse group stays intact, there are several that are going to want to make the front end. Gaslight (#2) figures to lay just off them and hopefully get first run on his opponents. He ships in after a tough race at Saratoga at this distance. The N3L claiming ranks there are always ultra-tough, and he ran like a 15-1 longshot that day. He drops and moves circuits in hopes of finding his 2021 form. Caerus (#7) is another candidate to be rolling from off the pace in this one. I’m not sure why he was vying for the lead while in between horses last out at this level. That early gambit almost certainly did him no favors that day. We’ll see what the strategy is this time, but I would think a more patient approach will be in order. Jose Gomez continues to ride well at the Spa and he’ll be in town to ride him, among others this afternoon. I’ll cover my bases with Backatya (#4) for Jamie Ness. As many Ness horses do, he improved dramatically in his first start off the claim. He’s a four time winner, so he knows what he’s doing on the track. His game is front end speed, which could wind up being his unraveling here as there is definite competition for the early lead. 

Race 5:

The third of four races for two year olds on the Saturday card is a $25K-$20K maiden claimer for fillies going five furlongs on the dirt. Neither of the first time starters in this nine horse race are catching my eye. I’ll use Passingthemistery (#8) on top here, hoping that she has valid excuses in her last two starts. Her debut on a fast track at Gulfstream at this level wasn’t bad. She caught a sloppy course two starts back and didn’t run well. She shipped up to Colonial Downs at the beginning of the month where she moved up in class to a maiden special weight race going a one turn mile on the dirt there. She led for about half the race, before folding up quickly. She returns to a sprint and a more suitable level of competition where I think she’s going to be competitive. Always Elle (#9) is also dropping out of maiden special weight company, after finishing at the back of the pack in a pair of local races to start her career. She showed a little early interest at this distance on the dirt in her debut. She had a similar kind of trip when breaking from the rail in a turf race last time out. Her dam has had several foals to race and four of them have been winners. Lady Lancer (#3) will be another one that I’ll use here, slotting her on the B line. She was 4th last out in a restricted maiden special weight race where the runner-up came back to win her next start. She was much more competitive in that spot after running into a buzzsaw in her debut in open company.  Having the apprentice, Jose Gomez, aboard, should help her cause on the drop in class. Sirenetta (#2) is one that I’ll cover with on deeper tickets, strictly from a connections standpoint. She took some money in her debut at this level and finished 4th, beaten 10+ lengths. She’ll need to improve here, and that’s certainly a possibility in her second career start. However, it’s hard to imagine getting any true value on this filly with Paco Lopez riding for Kelly Breen. 

WIN-EARLY PICK-5, $24 TIcket:

If you’re a fan of two year old races, this sequence is for you, as three of the five races are for the babies. I don’t think there’s a standout in any of those spots, so for me, coverage in those races will be necessary. While I’ll look at crafting some back up tickets, I’ll use my two A’s in the races for older runners as singles, and spread in the three other races. I do like Kingdom on Paws (#5, R2) a decent amount and thought that he was better last time out than Tap the Candy (#6, R2). He’ll likely go off at a better price as well. Gaslight (#2, R4) ships in from New York in his race, and I think he’ll get a very good setup if he’s good enough. His trainer, Patrick Quick, has started two horses at the meet and both were live, winning once, and finishing second with the other. 

Race 6:

The Jersey Shore 6 will start with a $16K-$14K conditioned claiming race for three year olds and up, going 5 and ½ furlongs on the turf. Lucago (#6) will be a very short price in this race after dominating a race at this condition two weeks ago. He was an easy winner against a sharper field that afternoon, taking the lead early and never turning back. I do think he’ll have more pace competition today, especially with U Kant Whip It (#7) drawn to his outside. However, he’s a five time winner that has proven he can win from anywhere on the track. He held his own in allowance company two starts ago, finishing 6th after a miserable trip. He makes a ton of sense of paper, but I would think that it would make sense to move up in class as opposed to staying at this level. I have to use him, but I’ll try The Predicament (#1) on top, thinking that getting back to  5 and ½ furlongs on the turf might be enough to put him over the top. He was gaining late when going five furlongs last out after a tough start. He had a miserable trip two back in his only other try at this distance. My hope is that Jairo Rendon will go early again with the favorite (even though he doesn’t really need the lead), possibly setting up a hot pace for him to close into. 

Race 7:

I’m going to try to take a pair of closers at prices in a very interesting optional $25K claiming/N2X allowance race at 1 mile and 70 yards on the dirt. As many as six of the eight runners in here could go for the lead. Nicky the Vest (#1) and Treasury (#2) are two of them and both could be a little more keen than usual making their first starts off layoff. Awesome Aaron (#5) was on the engine from his inside draw on the Haskell undercard where he was able to hold on to clear the N1X condition after setting some very quick fractions on a glib, speed friendly course. Benevengo (#7) returns after setting some quick fractions in the Haskell later on that day. If closers are able to get home on this course today, I think No Salt (#6) has a big chance. He went off form two and three starts back before righting the ship in a strong starter allowance race two weeks ago. He put several strong efforts together in New York over the winter and has been sharp when running at two turns. This is definitely a step up in class from his last start, but I think this race sets up nicely for him. The same could be said for Wild Banker (#3) who will get the services of Javier Castellano. He’s a New York bred that has had some success when shipping down to the Jersey Shore. He was closing late to get into third in the off the turf Sussex Stakes at Delaware in his first start of 2022. He finished 5th in a state bred optional claiming/N2X allowance race on the grass in his most effort. He is tactical enough that he could get first run on this field with a smart ride from Castellano.

Race 8:

Odramark (#3) continues to find herself in some very advantageous spots while sprinting on the turf. She moves up in class, facing open $22K-$18K claimers today, but much like three weeks ago, she looks like the lone speed in her race. She drew off on the turn while going five furlongs that day, with Ferrer possibly asking the question a bit too soon. Gran Malbec was closing, but she held on to win by a head. The added half furlong shouldn’t be an issue with Paco Lopez coming back. She’s a deserving favorite once again. I’ll cover with Penn National invader, My Masterpiece (#1), thinking that she’ll be the one that will be trying to reach her late. She looks like the kind of horse that will benefit from getting the extra half furlong, stretching out from a pair of five furlong sprints. She closed well on a course at Penn that has been kind to front end speed, coming within a length of winning in her last two tries. She’s moving up in class, but at seven years old, she’s in some of her best career form right now.

Race 9, The $200K Sapling Stakes:

While there is a clear headliner here, this race is absolutely loaded with several runners that could turn out to be any kind. The one that will gather all of the attention is Lost Ark (#2), and for good reason. His dam, Marion Ravenwood, has foaled Grade 1 winners Nest and Idol, along with some other decent runners. Harrell Ventures bought him for $275K at the Keeneland September Sale in 2021, which was a few weeks before Nest made her debut. Seeing what kind of season she’s had, $275K may prove to be a bargain. Javier Castellano, winner of six Travers, is riding here today to ride him for Pletcher, so clearly he’s high on this one.  He’ll be a short price, but he’ll be trying something new for the first time. The heavy favorite, Devious Dame, was disappointing in the Sorority (the sister stakes to this race) so I don’t see him as a clear cut single. He’ll be an A and on most of my tickets, but I’ll try V Mart (#5) on top. He was very good when dominating a restricted maiden special weight in the mud at Saratoga for Juan Avila. The second and third place finishers in that race came back to win in their next starts. He has the pedigree to get two turns, being sired by Hard Spun out of a Street Sense mare. American Blaze (#6) caught the eye when going seven furlongs in his debut at Ellis. He stalked the leaders before coming with a bold three wide bid to blow by them, eventually winning by 17 lengths. He’s a solid workhorse for Ben Colebrook. His dam didn’t do much on the track, but she was foaled by a nice mare, Tough Tiz’s Sis. On deeper tickets, Brad Cox sends out Bourbon Spirit (#1) making his second career start. He came from off the pace to win his debut in the mud at Ellis. He’s the first foal from the unraced Tapit mare, Gifted Glory. He made an impression at the sales, selling for $200K at the Keeneland September Sale in 2021. He’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line, suggesting that there’s some decent value on a Brad Cox runner here. 

Race 10:

$12,500-$10,500 filly and mare claimers are going one mile on the grass here. I think the Maryland invader, Gennie Highway (#6) makes a lot of sense while returning to a two turn race. She’s been facing better foes and drops in for the lowest level since returning from a lengthy layoff back in January. She was offered for a $12,500 tag last out in an optional claiming/starter allowance race, so by no means is this an alarming drop. With racing shifting to Timonium for two weeks, there hasn’t been a viable spot for her to race in Maryland on grass, so Capuano has brought her here. She should be tough to beat at this level. Driven By Speed (#8) may offer some value in this race if she goes off at or near her 6-1 morning line figure. She’s an eight year old mare that is in good current form, shipping here off a victory with $6,250 starter allowance company at Penn National earlier this month. She was closing well on this course two starts back at this level when beaten by Pugilist, who is not entered today to torment her rivals at this condition. Purrageous Dyna (#1) is another value player in this spot, looking to rebound after a dull effort in a five furlong race at Delaware in her most recent start. Her effort two back looked better on the track than it does on paper as she was very wide when coming up a little bit short. I think the rail post can only help her secure a decent position today. 

Race 11:

We’ll end the afternoon with $30K-$25K N2L filly and mare claimers going six furlongs. The question that you’ll have to ask yourself with this one is; what do you do about Evoking (#2)? She has one career start, dominating an off the turf maiden special weight field in the slop at Belmont last May. She’s been on the sidelines ever since, and now resurfaces for Jonathon Thomas, while running with a $30K tag. She’s well bred, so I’d think at the very least, she’d be a broodmare prospect for George Strawbridge and Augustin Stables. Even if there are issues there, if they thought she could be a useful filly on the track, I doubt she’d be entered for a tag. I’ll pass on her at short odds and turn my attention to Be Like Beth (#3) who is dropping back in for a tag after a respectable effort in starter allowance company last month. Paco Lopez is back riding after missing her last race due to being suspended. He was the pilot for her dominating maiden score in her debut when facing $25K-$20K maiden claimers. This seems like the right level for her to get her second career victory. R Funny Bizness (#7) broke her maiden in the slop this spring in a race where she was claimed away from Gerald Bennett for $25K. He re-claimed her last out, paying $30K for a different ownership group. She came up empty at this level last out, but could take a step forward with the barn change. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Gwynedd (#6) making her first start in 2 and ½ months and cutting back from a route race at Delaware. It’s nice to see Ben Perkins Jr. back at Monmouth, as most of his business these days is in Maryland. She broke her maiden back in March with $40K-$32K maiden claimers at Laurel. When facing winners for the first time, she tried N2X company at Charles Town where she finished 5th in a two turn sprint there. She dropped to the N1X allowance level in her last start, where she was thoroughly defeated. She’s by Speightster out of a War Chant mare, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see her take a shot on grass if this race doesn’t pan out. Her recent drills on the main track at Delaware are solid enough to have some faith in her here. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 116/447 (26.0%) – $856.80/ $1.92 ROI