Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Friday, April 22, 2022

AQUEDUCT – 4/22/22

RACE 1: 2-5-4-1

#2 SUDDEN IMPULSE is clearly the one to beat in the opener as the main speed on the drop for low percentage connections.  She ran well when last seen here for 25k and is equally adept on wet or dry surfaces.  The lack of talent in this field is apparent and only makes her look that much tougher to beat.

RACE 2: 9-8-3-6

There’s a strong argument that the best surface for #9 U SHOULD BE DANCING is turf and she gets back to it today.  In light with the bug boy aboard, this daughter of War Dancer goes out for a red-hot barn that picked up another win on Thursday.  Look for them to use aggressive tactics.

RACE 3: 1-6-4-2

#1 MISS BRAZIL looked destined for graded stake company as a 3YO and now returns off a layoff for a barn that is winless on the year.  She is a speedster who should be close from the start, but whether she gets the lead remains to be seen.  Nonetheless, her best races are better than those of her rivals.

RACE 4: 5-4-8-7

Second time starters are often among the best bets one can make and #5 WORK IT OUT likely gained a great deal from her unveiling.  She was bet down to 7/2 and wound up chasing the pace before tiring.  This is a particularly weak bunch and she should be involved from the outset.

RACE 5: 7-3-9-2

#7 HALF BIRTHDAY has a tremendous pedigree for turf and trainer Tom Morley likely had an eye on the green when he claimed her for 25k.  She is the 3rd foal to race out of a dam who did all her best running on the weeds.  Progeny of Freud win their turf debuts at a 11% clip.

RACE 6: 1-6-3-7

#1 MY GIRL LEXI is an interesting price play here having raced close to the rail in consecutive starts since being claimed.  She has improved by leaps and bounds in her last two and is competitive on paper based on her last speed figure.  You also get a weight break and a big price.

RACE 7: 7-4-6-2

#7 BIG CASTLE is a heavy favorite and likely winner on this card given the drop in class and good recent form for this son of Paynter.  He has the right style here with some cheap speed signed on to spar in the opening stages.  Look for him to stalk and pounce right from the start.

RACE 8: 1-4-5

#1 PIPELINE is hardly the most trustworthy heavy favorite you’ll find, but boasts plenty of credentials to earn top honors here.  He returns off a layoff after facing considerably tougher in his final two outings of 2021, and should have the speed to get involved early.  There’s plenty of talent here for sure.

RACE 9: 3-11-1-4

#3 B C GLORY DAYS is the one to beat in the nightcap, as trainer Ray Handal hits at a 19% clip with turfers first off of claims ($3.50 ROI) and this guy shows up as a new gelding.  He will be involved in the pace given the complexion of this race and that might be all it takes to clear the maiden ranks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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