Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Sunday, November 21, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 11/21/21

RACE 1: 1-9-3-11

#1 DAKOTA DANCER is kin to recent stakes winner and BC participant Dakota Gold, so the move to turf could definitely do this daughter of Freud some good.  She will likely benefit from having that race behind her, and there’s plenty of upside here.

RACE 2: 5-1-12-8

#5 WAR NOVEL has been involved in hot paces going long in two prior dirt outings and now change surfaces for trainer Orlando Noda.  He shortens up a tad in distance and gets some class relief as well, which adds to the appeal.

RACE 3: 2-4-6

#2 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND is the best alternative to the likely heavy fave in this affair.  He can be effective from just off the pace and is new to the barn of Kelly Breen.  There’s still upside here, even if Senbei has handled him easily twice before.

RACE 4: 1-2-7-3

#1 EMARAATY was at a decided disadvantage last time out when trying to rally into a slow pace.  He now gets more ground to work with and a likely stronger setup with a couple of pace players signed up in this field.  You’ll also get far more value here than with his stablemate, #2 ANALYZE IT.

RACE 5: 6-10-4-8

A second straight win for #6 GOODNIGHT OLIVE seems like a fait accompli in this spot.  She was a tremendously impressive maiden winner last time out at Keeneland and now takes the logical class jump for a barn that has scored 4 wins this week.

RACE 6: 2-3-7-5

The :10 and 1/5 sale workout for #2 TEMPERAMENTAL, coupled with progeny of Practical Joke hitting at a 24% clip on debut makes this filly very interesting.  She is kin to a 312k earner from Puerto Rico who also placed in a stake in the US.  Not long ago this barn was the best around with NY bred firsters.

RACE 7: 5-7-4-2

#5 ROYAL ADDRESS goes 2nd off a layoff for Neil Drysdale after finishing a game 2nd in a strong N2X last time out at Belmont.  The winner of that race came back to win a stakes race, the 3rd place finisher nearly won a stake at Del Mar, and another also-ran improved her Beyer figure in her next start.  This one has the tactical speed to stay close and now gets Lasix.

RACE 8: 12-2-1-9

#12 HIGH TIDE is a late runner who figures to get a strong setup this afternoon for Carlos Martin.  He was a non-factor on dirt last time out, but that race can be ignored, and ran a bang-up third two back against lesser rallying into a slow pace.  Things figure to heat up on the front end in here.

RACE 9: 5-6-7-1                                                                                                                                                             

#5 CUPID’S HEART was a tremendously impressive debut winner for Cupid after breaking poorly and making a huge middle move to reach contention.  She has a ton of upside given the quality of that unveiling and there will be plenty of pace for her to run at this afternoon.

RACE 10: 4-2-10-6                                                                                                                                                   

In addition to being the main speed, #4 MOTION TO STRIKE is bred well for the surface switch to turf.  He is by a 13% turf sire and has a number of turf winners on the dam side.  If the hot-riding Jose Lezcano can get this one to the front early, she just may forget to quit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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