Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Thursday, December 16, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 12/16/21

RACE 1: 7-3-1-2

The dirt form that #7 WICKED HAPPY possesses is darkened enough for her to be a big price in this field.  She set a fast pace the last time she tried dirt on a sloppy surface at the Spa, and her two prior tries over this strip last spring were solid.  She should be able to settle and make one run today with the blinkers going on.

RACE 2: 2-3-6-4

When a cagey veteran like Charlie Baker takes a horse like #2 ARISTOCRATIC, you have to serve notice.  He took this veteran gelding for 20k in October at Belmont and has now given him some time off.  He’s back on his favorite surface as the main speed in a race which he fits quite nicely.

RACE 3: 6-8-9-3

#6 INCONTROVERTIBLE switches surfaces in her 2nd start off a trainer change to Ned Allard and has back dirt form that makes her a contender. She raced against the grain of the surface at Laurel the last time she tried the main track in September and will be a potent late threat today.

RACE 4: 8-4-5-2

It was an outside mover’s track the last time #8 MANDATORY PAYOUT ran over this oval.  He made a strong late bid to finish 2nd behind a runaway winner who actually runs later on today.  This son of Strong Mandate has had a hard time winning in the past but has collected a number of in the money finishes and seems to have some affinity for this strip.

RACE 5: 4-2-8-11

#4 INDOCTRINATE was put at a major disadvantage when he broke poorly last time out, but he still finished with interest to round out the superfecta.  The winner of that race has since returned to win, and this son of Exaggerator made the only real off the pace move.  He obviously needs to break cleaner to contend.

RACE 6: 6-4-2-9

The inside paths were best on November 28 and #6 GLORY ROAD was 2-3 wide much of the way before capitulating inside the half-mile pole  He now takes an enormous drop in class back to the level at which he was claimed and figures to be more of a threat.  The speed he possesses is a weapon given the expected race flow in here.

RACE 7: 1-6-7-5

The entry of #1 LIFE IS GREAT and #1A HAGLER looks almost impossible to beat.  Each recently ran races that tower over any of the best efforts of their competition here, and they happen to be the extent of the frontrunning types in a race largely devoid of early foot.  The real surprise will be if they don’t finish 1-2.

RACE 8: 10-7-9-11

#10 DEVIOUS BANKER takes a huge class drop for low profile connections, but don’t sleep on the duo of Jalon Samuel and Cleveland Johnson, as they have combined for two wins from seven starters.  This gelding is the one to catch and faced much better competition while wide on the course the last time he tried dirt.

AQUEDUCT FALL STATS: 144-35-23-20      $287.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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