AQUEDUCT ANALYSIS – 03/01/2025
RACE 1: 1-6-4-5
#1 UNBROKEN CHAIN is a second time starter who’s in line to improve with a race behind him. He was close to a hot pace on debut and understandably tired late. Trainer Carlos Martin is once again legging up the bug boy to get the weight break, and the addition of blinkers should keep him sharp early.
RACE 2: 4-3-8-1
#4 A BOURBON FOR TOBY has run well enough to win this race and likely was always meant to sprint. He ran his best race to date on debut and should appreciate the cutback after weakening late last time out going 9 panels. Visiting rider Ben Curtis is in the irons and he should have this colt moveing well late.
RACE 3: 2-5-7-1
#2 DESPO’S DREAM goes out for the meet’s top barn and drops significantly in class in search of her 2nd career win. She has faltered since being claimed by Linda Rice, but was perhaps spotted too ambitiously after being taken for 40k. This is the right spot class-wise and the pace will be solid enough for him to uncoil a late run.
RACE 4: 3-1-2-4
The effort put forth last out in the Toboggan by #3 FULL MOON MADNESS was pretty solid all things considered, as speed and the inside played well for the most part on that card. He ran a credible race that followed up a vastly improved try in the Gravesend in late December. The pace will be soft in here and that’ll enable him to stay close enough to stalk and pounce.
RACE 5: 7-3-2-1
#7 CATCHPHRASE is the main speed on paper and should be tough to catch if left to her own devices on the front end. She made the lead last time out and never looked back, so look for similar tactics to be employed today. The public has been all over her in three prior starts, so getting any kind of price seems like a pipe dream.
RACE 6: 8-2-5-3
The move back to a mile will only help #8 COASTAL MISSION, who is that rare closing sprinter who can also be effective at a mile. He enters off a dull effort in the Toboggan, but he was compromised not only by a moderate pace that never came apart, but also a speed and inside bias. He will be rolling late at a fair price.
RACE 7: 3-9-2-1
#3 DREXEL HILL ran a vastly improved race second off a trainer switch last time out. She checked in a competitive third behind stablemate Simply Joking in that affair, rating and coming up empty late. The return to a one-turn trip will likely bring out her best, and the blinkers coming off should help her relax early.
RACE 8: 3-5-8-7
#3 CALLING CARD ran better than it looks last time out as he made a wide move around the far turn before flattening out. He now returns to the site of his smashing maiden win, as he ran off and hid when victorious against NY breds by 17+ lengths. He should appreciate the cutback and return to a one-turn trip, especially with a fast pace expected.
RACE 9: 1A-4-8-2
The “now” horse in here is #1A HAGRID’S FLAME, who has been razor sharp of late with consecutive victories for Jamie Ness. He is a late running type who needn’t take his racetrack with him, as evidenced by the two recent wins. He should get some pace to run at here and will be a fair price.
RACE 10: 6-1-5-9
#6 MERICA’S BACK is poised to improve at second asking after a promising debut run. He had a good trip in that affair but came up wanting late. The fitness gained from that effort is significant and will help him as he returns for Mike Maker. The favorite here is untrustworthy given the races he’s lost thus far, so upgrade this guy’s chances.
