AQUEDUCT ANALYSIS – 03/08/2025
RACE 1: 5-7-2-4
#5 ICE ROAD enters off a win and is an ideal fit for this race from a pace perspective. His steady, grinding style will enable him to get into a good spot off the pace and wear his rivals down in the lane.
RACE 2: 5-2-6-7
The pace edge that #5 NO FACTOR possesses is significant and puts her in line to wire this field. The pace in her last start was fast and understandably took its toll late. She adds blinkers here and should be a threat from the word ‘go’.
RACE 3: 8-1-5-3
The class drop in for a tag on #8 TWIRLING VINE is significant enough to land here at a square price. This son of Twirling Candy was a non-factor last out against better and should fit nicely at this level. The barn has obviously been hesitant to run him for a tag but can’t wait any longer.
RACE 4: 4-7-6-3
Perhaps it’s a race too late, but there’s still value to be had on #4 BERNIEANDTHEROSE, who bids for a fourth straight win here. She has the ability to go the mile without issue but also has the tactical speed to sit off the pace. That makes her a major player today.
RACE 5: 4-6-5-2
#4 LEO’S REWARD exits a maiden win that was likely better than the Beyer Speed Figure he earned indicates. He now steps up into a winnable spot where the favorite is a suspect NY bred with stamina issues.
RACE 6: 7-2-8-9
#7 CAPT JAX PARROW is in line to improve second time out after a debut run where he showed a lttle life mid-race. He adds blinkers today on the class drop and should fit into this class level well for mike Maker. Look for him to have more speed this time around.
RACE 7: 6-8-2-5
#6 LIGHTNING STRIKE is a firster by Bolt d’Oro, whose progeny hit at a 15% clip on debut. The dam here was a 2x winner and has dropped 3 winners from 5 to race. The worktab down at Payson looks very strong and this is a questionable group of NY breds she faces today.
RACE 8: 1-8-7-3
#1 EXPECTED VALUE is dangerous coming in off a good effort htat was better than it looks on paper. He tried to make up ground in a slow paced race while wide. The inside was the place to be that day and the pace was dominated on the front end in that affair. Look for him to make big late noise.
RACE 9: 3-5-4-2
#3 MO PLEX returns off a break after winning a graded stake as a 2YO. He was a good second when last seen in the Sleepy Hollow and lands in a nice spot here for his 3YO debut. There’s still plenty of upside for this colt.
RACE 10: 8-11-7-2
#8 MOONTOWN is a second timer who ran in spots on debut against MSW foes and now drops in for a tag. She should improve on the drop and trainer Linda Rice’s horses historically were better with experience.
