AQUEDUCT – 12/31/22
RACE 1: 9-7-6-2
The prior outings of #9 FACTUALLY CORRECT make him strictly the one to beat here. He was a good third last out in a key race that has since yielded a next out stake winner. The winner of that race looks to be NY bred stakes caliber as well. The outside draw is also ideal today.
RACE 2: 5-2-6-8
There is a case to be made for #5 SIGHT UNSEEN, who can be forwardly placed off an inside trip going a mile. The rail was not the place to be that afternoon and he figures to be much more ideally placed today stalking the pace. Trainer Mark Hennig also sports solid numbers with dirt starters cutting back from routes to sprints (16%, $2.27 ROI).
RACE 3: 8-3-1-4
A little speed came out of here and that only bolsters the chances of #8 UNION LAKE, who should be in an ideal stalking spot from the start. She was overmatched in the Raven Run last out at Keeneland and figures to improve here back on Lasix and in NY. The price will be fair at or around her morning line.
RACE 4: 1-4-7-6
#1 MOMMASGOTTARUN is the one to beat from a class perspective as she drops in class for trainer Robby Falcone, Jr. She is drawn poorly on the inside but has the speed to overcome the rail and has held her form reasonably well since being claimed. If she is able to get involved early it only helps her chances.
RACE 5: 3-6-8-1
#3 JET SPEED is the main speed today on a serious class drop. He was overmatched facing starter allowance foes last time out and wound up tiring after chasing early. The wet track was likely not to his liking, so things should improve here. Look for Jose Lezcano to try to blitz them on the front end.
RACE 6: 2-3-6-7
#2 KANT HURRY LOVE was involved in a hot pace last time out before getting collared late and now returns at the same class level. She was scratched out of a similar spot here a couple of weeks ago and now gets a dry strip to race over for Christophe Clement. The lead is likely hers for the taking and getting it would make her very dangerous.
RACE 7: 5-6-7-2
#5 WINIT had a tough trip last time out when away from the gate poorly before rushing up to reach contention on the first turn. He understandably weakened late but now shortens up in distance and should get a good trip stalking the pace today. The one mile distance is likely his best as well.
RACE 8: 9-10-5-8
#9 FOREWARNED just might get the pace setup he needs to make noise late today. He was no factor at Laurel last time out but spent a great deal of that race inside before angling out late in the game. He’s generally run well at Aqueduct and there’s more than enough speed signed up to set up his late bid.
RACE 9: 11-8-7-10
The only real worry about #11 ROUGH SEA is why trainer Bruno Tessore is willing to give up on him today for 25k. He was taken for just 12.5k in 2021 and they’ve made a fortune on him since, so that is notable. He is in top form, draws well outside and can be close enough early to grind them down late.