Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis – Wednesday, August 4, 2021

SARATOGA – 8/4/21

RACE 1: 3-4-7

#3 RITZY A.P. is the one to beat off a handy maiden win and has a big advantage as a former flat runner given the elongated run without hurdles to finish the course.

RACE 2: 7-6-4-3

#7 COUSIN ANDREW is a new gelding as he takes the biggest class drop in racing for trainer Chad Brown.  He has been competitive against MSW competition and looks like a complete cinch here if he can run anywhere near the caliber of race he did to begin his career.

RACE 3: 6-3-1-2

#6 NEXT TUESDAY is out of a dam who was a 3x turf winner and is by a sire whose progeny have done very well on turf.  This filly showed life on debut and now makes her third career start, so there’s upside here.  She has good speed and should use it here under Luis Saez.

RACE 4: 2-3-6

Distance is the equalizer here and #2 IFIHADACHANCE should have no trouble with it.  She has been effective at a mile in the past and now has a cozy inside draw for her first 9 furlong try.  The fact that she can be forwardly placed will help her get the trip.

RACE 5: 1-5-8-2

The tables could be turned here by #1 FUNWHILEITLASTED as she was a fast-closing second in the NY Stallion Series event won by #5 SPORT MODEL back on June 19.  This daughter of War Dancer is proven at a mile while that rival is not, and there’s a fair amount of speed in here that’ll set up her late bid.

RACE 6: 1-4-3-7

#1 TOWERING ORBIT is a second timer getting blinkers after a dull debut.  Trainer Charlton Baker gradually gets his horses into form and this daughter of Orb was out of the gate poorly on debut.  With that race behind her, she can be set for improvement.

RACE 7: 3-6-5-7

The turf pedigree of #3 CONVECTION is enough for you to land here. The dam was a 2x turf winner, the 2nd dam was a multiple turf winner and was stakes-placed and this colt has a sibling who was a 6x turf winner.  He was obviously claimed with an eye on the lawn and astute trainer Tom Amoss scratched him last week in a race transferred to the main track.

RACE 8: 2-4-1

Finding an alternative to #2 AUNT KAT in this spot is difficult as she is the controlling speed on paper and should be clear in the opening stages.  She has been solid, if not underwhelming, in her two starts against winners but has also set wickedly slow paces against inferior competition.  We’ll see what she’s made of if allowed to run early in here.

RACE 9: 8-2-1-3

#8 ARGONNE ran a bang-up race here second off the layoff for trainer H. James Bond last year and now makes the same move.  He was a distant 4th last time out after losing ground at the start and should be a bit closer to the pace here.  They’ll have to beat #1 EN WYE CEE for the money.

RACE 10: 4-10-13-2

#4 HONOR HOP made her last turf start against males at 12 furlongs at Churchill Downs and is in a far more realistic spot today.  She has the tactical speed to stay within range and was just a head back of likely race favorite #10 OCEAN AIR when they met on March 13.  Look for her to stalk and pounce today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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