Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis – Sunday, July 18, 2021

SARATOGA – 7/18/21

RACE 1: 7-3-5-4

#7 SHIPSATIONAL is a firster who worked :20 and 4/5 at the OBS March sale and was purchased for 210k.  He is training forwardly and is by a sire whose progeny hit on debut at a 15% clip.  The dam was a 5x winner and has dropped 8 winners from as many to race.  The outside post is also ideal.

RACE 2: 3-6-15-5

#3 ABDAN is going to benefit from the surface change here as trainer Robertino Diodoro recently claimed this colt for 50k at Churchill.  He’ll benefit from the stretchout in distance given the speed he’s shown in the past, as he figures to win the race to the first turn.

RACE 3: 9-1-16-15

#9 SNICKET broke her maiden up a dead rail then came back to face winners and was wide the entire way on a surface where being inside was an advantage on December 19.  She is a threat on the surface switch here as this appears to be the perfect distance for her to boot.

RACE 4: 6-2-3-1

The 9 furlong trip is right in the wheelhouse of #6 HONOR HOP for trainer Brian Lynch, as this filly switches surfaces following a poor effort most recently on the lawn.  She was a game winner two back after stalking a hot pace and the runner-up from that event came right back to win.  Look for this grinder to be in the mix late.

RACE 5: 6-5-1-2

#6 COZZY’S ATTITUDE is by a 7% debut sire and is training forwardly for trainer Charlie Baker.  He is out of an 8x winner and is kin to 3 winners including the stakes-placed Cozzy Spring.  If he runs to his workouts, then he’ll be a major factor for top honors.

RACE 6: 8-10-2-1

#8 HANDY switches surfaces and drops in class in a race taken off the turf.  He is a true dirt horse, and that matters given that this race will be made up mainly of turf horses trying a different surface.  This colt has speed and figures to be in an ideal stalking spot from the outset today.

RACE 7: 1-7-9-3

#1 EQUAL PAY was on her way to a handy debut win back on June 3 and suddenly stumbled and unseated Irad Ortiz, Jr. in upper stretch.  She is now poised to break through for a maiden win in a race where she figures to be a solid favorite.  The inside post is the only real hindrance.

RACE 8: 6-7-8-4

The drop in class that #6 TIMELY TRADITION is getting here is beyond significant.  She has been facing open company of late and now is back in against NY breds.  It’s quite clear that she is a stakes caliber horse against NY breds, though her recent form is dubious.

RACE 9: 2-9-4-6

#2 MISCHIEFFUL is the one to beat on the surface switch given that this filly has the most speed and best turf form.  She was a handy winner in a race taken off the turf last time out and a similar trip is in the offing.  Look for her to get command at once today.

RACE 10: 10-7-6-9

#10 BEFORE YOU is strictly the one to beat on a major class drop for Bill Mott.  This filly began her career with a couple of solid dirt races and now switches surfaces after failing to handle turf.  If she runs back to either of those first two starts, she will win for fun.





















































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