SARATOGA ANALYSIS – 7/19/2024
RACE 1: 8-1-2-3
The turf pedigree on #8 NO EVIDENCE is interesting, especially when you couple it with the high percentage sire in place. Progeny of Vekoma are hitting at a 45% clip with a whopping 9 debut winners in his first crop. The outside draw is ideal, and the clockers noted that this colt outworked 3rd place finisher from 7/18 Brindi when they were paired up on 7/8.
RACE 2: 3-4-8-9
It’s tough to say nice things about the ride last time on #3 FROM HELLO. The rider didn’t particularly make any mistakes, but this filly was never in a good position, champing at the bit from the outset while never really settling. She made a middle move before flattening out but now drops in class, gets a key rider switch and should be a major force at a nice price.
RACE 3: 1-2-4-5
#1 UNMATCHED WISDOM dips his toes into the stakes waters for the first time today after two flashy wins downstate. He will have to race without Lasix and that is really the biggest concern, especially because this colt is the main speed on paper in a paceless affair. The question will be just how good he is, as we know he’s shown tremendous potential thus far.
RACE 4: 9-8-3-6
The post position is the biggest negative on #9 FIRST GLIMPSE, but the class drop and recent form makes him a player. He was taken for 32k two back, ran well for 40k earning a 6 Thoro-graph figure while improving his Beyer number, and now lands in a good spot pace-wise. There should be enough early speed in here to set things up for him in the closing stages.
RACE 5: 1-3-2-4
#1 NOT GUILTY is moving to turf for Cherie DeVaux, whose barn is off to a hot start at the meet. This filly debuted on dirt and showed nothing, then improved marginally going longer. Progeny of Blame hit at a 10% clip first time turf and the lone sibling to race was a 4x winner on the weeds. This is a great spot to try an alternative to the likely favorite, #3 POSITIVE CARRY.
RACE 6: 8-2-6-1
#8 SARATOGA WARRIOR is a firster by Volatile, a first crop sire who has 2 debut winners thus far. The worktab here was lauded by clockers for being strong, and this is a barn whose horses are generally at their best at the beginnings of their careers. Expect speed from this one, especially if Luis Saez can get him out of the gate.
RACE 7: 5-8-10-6
#5 EMERALD FOREST is a late runner who’s taking an enormous class drop first off a claim by Linda Rice. He has reportedly been training well and should get some pace to run at here given the amount of speed signed up. The price will be low given the class drop and high percentage connections, but there are few in here you can really latch onto from a betting perspective.
RACE 8: 9-1-7-3
#9 PRINCESS MADISON is a last out maiden winner for Phil Bauer, and draws beautifully outside to stalk and pounce this afternoon. Bauer is a solid 31% with dirt sprinters off maiden wins, good for a $2.81 ROI. This gal won a maiden race that has already yielded a next out winner from the runner-up and she has potential given the speed figure move up last time.
RACE 9: 5-4-10-7
#5 CHILD OF THE MOON is a Euro shipper for Chad Brown who lures Flavien Prat and gets Lasix for her North American debut. The barn is 8 for its last 20 with foreign shippers off 250+ day breaks in turf routes, good for a breakeven ROI adjusted for takeout. The price here should be respectable given her stablemate will take the bulk of the action.
RACE 10: 4-9-5-3
It’s unclear why #4 GEOPOLITICS is 5/2 on the morning line when she should easily dip below even money. She exits a narrow miss against stakes company last time out and should be loose on the lead today for Bill Mott and Joel Rosario. Turf clearly agreed with her and all signs point to this being graduation day.
SARATOGA 2024 STATS: 61-16-13-4 $122.40
