SARATOGA ANALYSIS – 7/26/2024
RACE 1: 3-5-8-6
Trainer David Jacobson is very good adding blinkers and #3 AFTERNOON HEAT will don the shades as a major pace player this afternoon. He stretches out off a Monmouth try when he surged late to narrowly miss sprinting and this will be his first chance to go long in quite some time. The quick run into the bend will help him establish command, especially if Ramon Vazquez is aggressive.
RACE 2: 1-4-7-10
#1 GENEROUS LUVA had an adventurous trip last out after losing her action and bobbling badly on the backstretch then rushing up to chase the pace. Trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. is adding Lasix and blinkers while dropping her in for a tag, which should lead to improvement. Expect Irad Ortiz, Jr. to seize command on the backstretch.
RACE 3: 5-4-1
#5 VALENTINE CANDY ran better than it looks on paper in the Woody Stephens. The pace in that race was merciless and this son of Justify was never that far off of it before fighting to the finish. He can be in a good spot stalking the pace this afternoon and should be a good price with #4 JEFFERSON STREET likely to take the bulk of the wagering support.
RACE 4: 1-7-4-2
#1 OCCULT looks like a virtual cinch on a major class drop for trainer Chad Brown. She ran very well in the Fleur de Lis last time out at Churchill Downs, looming boldly on the far turn before flattening out late. While the horses running back out of there have underperformed so far, this gal is the only one so far to be dropping in class.
RACE 5: 6-7-5-10
#6 TONY O drops in class for trainer David Donk and should fit well in here. His last opportunity against maiden claimers didn’t go well, but that race was virtually dominated on the front end which gave the back markers no opportunity. This is his last real chance given the drop, especially because he earned a sky high Thoro-graph figure last out that makes him a standout.
RACE 6: 3-6-9-7
The sale workout for #3 ACCELERATING was very strong, as she went :10 and 2/5 at Timonium, which is a bullring that prohibits horses from hitting their top stride. She is apparently training well for Steve Asmussen, whose barn is long overdue to get rolling at this stand. Tab the tote action to get a sense of whether this one will be a tough customer.
RACE 7: 2-6-3-7
The significant inside bias on the inner turf will work in the favor of #2 VESTING, who broke his maiden last out going long on the lawn at Aqueduct. He is the one to catch today and took to the extra ground last time out with aplomb. Flavien Prat is so deadly on speed horses on the grass, so this gelding is a major player today.
RACE 8: 1-3-9-2
One of the day’s best bets is #1 CLEAR THE AIR, who has had two brutal trips in a row at Churchill and here at the Spa. He was hit with massive traffic issues two back on multiple occasions and then had trouble last time out. A clean break from the gate will help his cause because he can get closer to the lead, especially in a race that doesn’t have a ton of early zip.
RACE 9: 2-6-7-9
If they attached a “Grade III” to this field no one would be surprised, given the presence of multiple graded stake winners like #2 GENERAL JIM. He is looking to get his career restarted off a poor last out run going long on turf. He will get treated with Lasix for the first time, and that will definitely help his cause. He also has the tactical speed to stay within range, which is a necessity on this strip.
RACE 10: 2-9-5-6
#2 FERRIS MULER is beyond interesting in here drawn on the rail in a particularly weak MSW event. This colt broke poorly last out and wound up too far off a wicked hot pace. He now stretches out to a trip that is likely right at his capacity distance-wise. The rail draw further adds appeal given he can save ground over a course which favors inside runners at the moment.
SARATOGA 2024 STATS: 113-29-24-13 $228.40
