Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 1/17/25 – By Eric Solomon

After dealing with a winter storm and below-freezing temperatures last weekend, the forecast this weekend in Hot Springs, Arkansas is warmer and dry. We have a 10 race card that will kick off a four day week of racing, wrapping things up on Monday. First post this afternoon is 12:30 PM (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

$10K state bred claimers will sprint six furlongs in the first race in two weeks at Oaklawn. This feels like a race where coverage will be a necessity. I’ll use a pair of shippers returning to Oaklawn for the first time in a while as my A line plays. Colonel Barton (#9) is the top pick, making his first start here since the end of April. He’s been busy during that time, running 13 times at other tracks during that time period. He’s run credible races in his last three starts in Texas and Louisiana, two of which where he was a huge longshot. He’ll get class relief despite shipping in from Sam Houston. He was a winner here last season and I think he can contend with this group today. Amazing Success (#11) got his start here last season, debuting back in February. He broke his maiden here with state bred $30K maiden claimers in his 5th career start here in April. Norman McKnight claimed him with the idea of bringing him to Woodbine for the summer and fall months. However, his Tapeta form was going in the wrong direction, so he was sent to Fort Erie where he competed on the traditional dirt course there. He had a three race win streak snapped when he made his most recent start in a starter allowance race there. He reunites with McKnight, who has a winter string at Oaklawn as per usual. He might need to take a small step forward to beat this group, but he’s a newly turned four year old, so the potential to do just that is still there. Holding Pattern (#5) was dull when he returned from a six month layoff here last month. He’s struggled in his first race off the bench in the past, so his dull effort against a better field could be excused. He drops in class and figures to be more competitive at this level of competition. He had a nice string of races going as the meet went on last year, so he might still be a race or two away from producing his best effort. If his odds flat up a bit from his 9-2 morning line figure, I could be enticed to use him more prominently. Peace Dog (#3) is the morning line favorite in this spot, and it feels like he’s a horse that is worth covering in the multi-race wagers. On one hand, he’s only six races removed from running a 93 Beyer Speed Figure at Prairie Meadows in June. However, prior to taking a near three month vacation, his speed figures were in a steadily declining pattern. He’s changed barns and has a few sharp works, so there are some positive signs that he can run a race that is good enough to beat this field. However, I would proceed with caution, while looking for clues as to what version of him will show up today. 

Race 2: 

Three year olds and upward are going 1 1/16 miles in this maiden special weight. Four of the nine runners in this spot are three year olds and the five other runners are four years old. How you attack this race depends on how you feel about the favorite, Darrow (#7). He’s a half to the multiple Grade 1 winning filly, Matareya. She was best between seven furlongs and the one turn mile, winning the Acorn and the Derby City Distaff for Brad Cox. Cox also campaigned his full brother, Methodology. That one was third on debut in a sprint, but he faltered when stretching out to two turns in his second career start. Cox has been absolutely ice cold at this meet this year as well, going 0-21, with only seven in the money finishers. Playing against the Cox runners has proven to be an undefeated strategy so far this season. If his odds float up to 7-2 or better, I’d be willing to take a shot, but as the favorite, I’m going to side against him. I think D. Wayne Lukas has a pair of interesting three year olds in this race, and I think the longer priced option, Wise Decision (#6) is very interesting. He debuted in a salty, six furlong sprint that was contested on a muddy course. He broke in the middle of the pace and stalked a solid pace. Keith Asmussen shifted him out four wide for the stretch drive on a day where the inner lanes were superior on the course. He was jostled a little bit as he was fading behind a pair of more experienced runners. He definitely is bred to get two turns, and he’ll get Lasix for the first time today. His dam was a multiple stakes winner at two turns on the dirt and his grand-dam is Sealy Hill, who was the Canadian Tripe Tiara winner and the Canadian Horse of the Year back in 2007. She also did her best work at two turns. Lukas has turned to apprentice Tyler Bacon and they’ve clicked over the last few weeks, scoring three times together. He has three sharp works since that race and I suspect we’re going to see a sharper version of him in this spot. I also think he could be sitting there at a big number in this race. After the Cox runner, there’s Brother Tony (#3), who has losses to graded stakes winners Gaming and Journalism on his resume. Bolt’s Treasure (#5) is making his first start off the claim for Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez, who is 7-20 at this meet. McPeek sends out a pair, including the professional maiden, Elko County (#1), who has the top Beyer Speed Figure in the race. Lukas’s other runner, Caldera (#9) was well-backed in his local debut and he’s owned by MyRacehorse, and their runners often offer little value in the win pools and their thousands of micro-share owners tend to drive the price of their runners at the pari-mutuel windows. I bring all of this up to say that Wise Decision is listed at 20-1 on the morning and could easily be overlooked enough to go off at odds of 30-1 or better in this race. I think this is a good time to buy low, despite Lukas’s dull numbers with second time starters. I’m going to go big in this spot and also use another 20-1 longshot with Cant Stop Willis (#4). This is a well-bred son of Nyquist that cost Wills Horton $550K in September of 2022. He was dull in his debut in a salty maiden special weight race at Ellis in August. He was up against in his last two starts, breaking from the outside in both of those route races. He covered more ground than anyone else at Churchill two back and a bad stumble at the break against a strong field at Keeneland did him in last out. He gets definite post relief after a few months away and I see this field as a weaker group than any of the fields he faced in the Bluegrass State. I think he has some upside in this spot as well. Caldera makes some sense here too, making his third career start. He paired his Beyers in his first two tries and now looks to move forward today. Rafael Bejarano takes the mount and he’s done well with for Lukas, winning three of eight starts together in the last year at Oaklawn. That was a solid effort against a lesser field last out so he definitely has to move forward to score. The price is going to be a question mark, and I can’t play him at odds much lower than his 10-1 morning line. However, I do think he’s another longer priced option with a chance to have an impact in one of the more interesting races on the program. 

Race 3:

This race is a beaten $10K-$8K claimer for fillies and mares, four and up, going one mile. I’m interested in the seven year old mare, Guana Cay (#6), making her first start off the claim for Cipriano Contreras. This barm was red hot here last season, but they’ve gotten off to a slow start here, winning only two of 25 races. 10 other runners from this barn have finished in the money though, so it’s not like these horses aren’t live. This mare has been struggling of late, but her last race came on the synthetic at Turfway. She’s running for a higher claiming tag, but dropping in class for this race, while returning to a course where she has had prior success on. I think she’s a much more attractive alternative to the morning line favorite, Dream Princess (#10). Lady Mercedes (#2) makes some sense in this race as well. She’s not the most consistent animal, but at this level, that could be expected. She was sharp two starts back when she was claimed out of an open $12,500 claiming race at Churchill. She came back at the end of the meet for her new connections in a tough starter allowance going seven furlongs. I trust her more when going two turns on the dirt. Torres will likely have her rolling late. Undecoded (#9) is a B line play for me here, making her first start since July in Iowa. Timothy Martin had a pair of winners last week to get on the board for the meet, one of which was piloted by Tyler Bacon, who gets the nod today. She wasn’t great at this meet last season and she definitely needed a few starts before hitting her best stride. However, at longer odds, I’d be willing to take a chance that she can match her summer form at this level. 

Race 4:

$30K maiden claimers will go six furlongs here. I think Real Blues (#6) is a major player in this race. He makes his 4th career start and his third start at this current meet. He was a game third at this level in his modern decent effort, when catching a muddy course. Bowen put him into the race earlier than usual, likely in part due to the way the track was playing that afternoon. I think he’s going to sit a midpack trip in this race and come with a decent late kick. I like his pattern of improvement coming into this race, which makes him feel like the one to beat. The top pick is a son of Authentic and I’m using the other son of Authentic, Bourbon River (#10), as the backup. He tried two turns last out after going to the front in the mud at this level. Matt Williams claimed him from that spot and he brings him back to a sprint at the same level. Blinkers are going on and he’s been gelded since his last start. There are a lot of changes here but as a longer priced option, he could be live. 

Race 5: 

14 horses are entered in this optional $100K maiden claiming. Horses that were purchased for less than $75K at their most recent auction or were RNA are eligible to run in this race without the waiver. This race is at one mile and the shorter priced runners on the morning line are all second time starters coming out of debut sprint races. I don’t really gate Gateskeeper (#2) opting to run in this particular spot. He just missed in an open maiden special weight sprint race on debut. The figure came back solid, so running in a race at the same track where the purse is $40K less seems a bit odd, even if he is still running without a claiming tag. Couple that with the fact his trainer, Jade Cunningham, is 0-18 in dirt route races over the last two years, and you’re left with a vulnerable favorite. This feels like another spot where it might be wise to try to take a price. I’d be willing to give another look to Landing Craft (#7) in this race. He was trained by Brad Cox prior to being moved to Ron Moquett’s barn after a dismal showing in a restricted maiden special weight race at Churchill in October. That race was going a one turn mile and he was chasing an aggressive pace for that distance. He ran okay in his prior start where he broke poorly and ended up finishing 6th. His recent works over this course seem to be much sharper than those prior to his two starts in Kentucky. Moquett scratched him twice last month when the track came up muddy. I think he has some upside in this spot where I think the favorites are vulnerable at best. Tom Amoss brought Kevin’s Strike (#6) here last month to make his first start in a true route race. He was wide and racing on the wrong part of that track that day, Inner lanes were much better on that day. Bejarano moved early, but he was flat in the late stages of that one. He’s been gelded since that last start and has a nice foundation of races that should give him a stamina edge over many of his rivals in this spot. Primo Canary (#1) drops in for a $100K tag after finishing 7th in an open maiden special weight race two weeks ago. He didn’t have a great break and never really had an impact on the outcome. Bejarano typically rides some of the better Chris Hartman horses at this meet and he opts to ride this son of Vino Rosso over Kevin’s Strike. The rail isn’t the best for him in start number two, but he’s bred for two turns on the dirt and with the class relief, he figures to be in the mix as well. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 wager begins with a $35K-$30K N3L claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. Luna Vieja (#1) is the pick for me in this race. He crossed the finished line first here last December before being disqualified and placed second. He ran several competitive races for Amoss after that effort, but he wasn’t breaking through at the N1X level. He faltered in an off the turf race at 10 furlongs last spring at Churchill, which led to an extended vacation for him. He came back in a 6 ½ furlong sprint at Delta where he was picking things up toward the end of the race. I like him stretching back out to a true route race and I think his midpack running style fits favorably with this field. Ken McPeek has a pair of runners that are contenders in this race. He sends out both Count Dracula (#4) and Ben Franklin (#12). Count Dracula is the one with more early speed, so if the track is playing kindly to front-runners in the first part of the card, I’d upgrade his chances in this race. He showed some speed on the Tapeta at Turfway in his most recent start, but he backed up late, finishing 11th of 12 in that spot. He just missed in allowance company here in the spring and I think he will rebound after the synthetic experiment backfired. Ben Franklin is the type of runner that puts up big figures, but doesn’t win a ton. He was a $435K purchase who has been given every opportunity to try to re-claim as much of that original investment as possible. He won twice on this course last year and came within a half length of winning three straight. His last four efforts have not been great though and that’s been enough for McPeek to offer him up for a tag for the first time. He does fit from a pace standpoint and if he can run back to his 2024 races on this oval, he’s going to win for fun. However, there should be plenty of question marks if that is even possible at this point, especially if his odds drop below his 3-1 morning line figure.

Race 7:

Fillies and mares will be going 1 ⅛ miles in this N2L allowance race. Viable (#4) is one of my stronger opinions on this card today. Thomas Drury Jr. ships her in from Kentucky after she was distant, but clear cut second place finisher in a N1X allowance race at Churchill last out. Her last three Beyer Speed Figures have been relatively flat, all coming in the mid-70’s, and this is a trend I tend to avoid. However, she was injured in a race in July at Ellis and she came back about 60 days later with a solid effort to narrowly lose in maiden allowance company before breaking through two starts back. She faced winners for the first time last out, but that race came at one turn mile. She ran well that day, but I think the added distance and the return  to two turn racing is going to put her over the top in this spot. The two shorter priced runners, Standoutsensation (#3) and Lemon Muffin (#5) are 1-15 and 1-14, respectively. This is a barn that doesn’t ship outside of Kentucky very often, so her showing up here feels like a strong positive. Lemon Muffin is the backup for me in this race. I liked her a lot at this level in her last start, but I didn’t love the ride from Keith Asmussen. He had her inside of runners on a day where the horses running in the outer flow were having more success. I think he overcompensated in that race while trying to save some ground, but in doing so, he cost her a better racing position. Her lone win came in Grade 3 company on this course, so she is the class of the field. 

Race 8: 

An overflow field of 14 has been assembled for this beaten $12,500-$10,000 claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. I have serious doubts about the morning line favorite, Dr. Soulfire (#9), having the same level of success on the dirt as he has had on the turf. There are some distance questions for some in this race, but I think the added distance will be a welcome change for Stand Proud (#6). He makes his third start off the layoff and his second for Michael Hewitt. His two turn races here in 2023 were strong, but he didn’t break his maiden until he returned in a sprint at Louisiana Downs in May of last year. He won both of his races there before struggling in allowance company at Lone Star. He had some more time off before shipping here. He wasn’t great in his two one turn races here to start the meet. However, he’s making his third start off the layoff, so I do see him as a candidate to take a step forward in this race. I think he could be finishing stronger than many of his rivals in this spot. Veracruzin (#11) was my top pick in an open claiming race here two weeks ago, however, Amoss opted to scratch him out of that race in favor of this spot (which was carded for last weekend). The distance is going to be a question mark, as he’s never gone this far on the dirt before. However, he was a winner in a two turn race when going 6 ½ furlongs at Delta in his last start. I have confidence that he’ll handle the added distance, but I liked the longer price last weekend than the 7-2 figure he’ll start at today. Frost Alert (#4) is shipping here from California for Peter Miller. He was a winner last month with open $6,250 claimers at Los Alamitos. Miller has been very intentional with the runners he’s brought to Oaklawn at this meet, and just about every runner has been live. I don’t love his outside draw for the race that he wants to run, but I still think he fits with this group. When this race was carded as a basic N3L claiming race last weekend, Nepal Up (#14) was not eligible to run .They brought it back, but they added the qualifier to allow horses that have not won a race in six months, thus allowing this nine year old to participate. He’ll need a few defections to compete, but he does fit well in this field, while making his first start off the Dan Ward claim. He left himself too much work to do last out and drawing the outside post here will likely mean that he’s going to drop to the back of the pack once again. He might be better suited for the lower part of the vertical exotics, but he;s a good enough fit to include him on some the horizontal wagers, should he draw in. 

Race 9:

The featured race this afternoon is an optional $75K claiming/N4L allowance race for four year olds and up, going one mile. This is a fairly conservative spot for Dimatic (#8), who was a winner of the Zia Park Derby in his most recent start. Steven Asmussen trains this Gun Runner colt who showed some promise by winning twice on this oval last season. He’s coming off five straight stakes efforts in lower tier derbies, earning checks in all five, but finally breaking through in New Mexico at the end of November. I’d think some of the stakes races here might be on his radar, but he’s going to have to be able to beat older runners for the first time in his career. I don’t love the mile for him, but I think he’s a great fit with this field. He is the one to beat It;s hard to gauge what kind of effort we’re going to get from Winnemac Avenue (#6) in this race. He was very good on this oval last season. He was on the sidelines until he resurfaced in a sprint race at Hawthorne where he finished last of five. Two turns is his game, but DiVito’s runners tend to need a race before they’re firing on all cylinders when coming off a break. He’s still worth considering though. 

Race 10:

Arkansas breds will end the day with an optional $30K claiming/N3L allowance race going six furlongs. One Ten Stadium (#5) is the 2-1 morning line favorite in this spot, but it’s hard to get excited to take a short price on a horse that hasn’t found the Winner’s Circle in nearly three years. King Peanut (#12) showed a ton of potential as a three year old, but he was unable to find that magic in his shortened four year old campaign. He moves barns and has been working well for his first start since an off the board finish in a state bred stakes sprint race in March. His recent works have been sharp, so at or around his 9-2 morning line figure, I’ll wager that we’ll see an improved effort to start his five year old season. Atta Party (#3) is better than what he showed in his last start when he was making his first start since moving to Ingrid Mason’s barn. He faced a competitive open starter allowance field and didn’t fire that day. He drops in class despite running for a larger purse in this spot. An off track would be a plus for him in this race. I think we’ll see an improved effort today. Choctaw Zip (#11) was going to need a defection to participate when this race was drawn last weekend. However, one runner did defect and he’s in the body of the field here. While he’s entered with the $30K tag, this is probably a step up in class from the N1X race he ran in last month. He was a respectable 5th that day and he’s making his second start off the layoff here. He’s probably better to use underneath, but he has an outside chance to improve if he can move forward off his last try. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 30/130 (23.1%, $330.20, $2.54 ROI)

January 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 8/30 (26.7%, $94.60, $3.15 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)