Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 1/19/25 – By Eric Solomon

The weather is getting colder once again in Hot Springs, Arkansas. The Monday program has been postponed and will go on Thursday 1/23 due to the forecasted cold temperatures. Right now, the temperature is expected to hover around the freezing mark today, and as of now, track officials are hopeful that they’ll get the 10 race program in today. The featured race is the $150K Pippin Stakes for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. First post this afternoon is 12:30 PM (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

I don’t recall seeing this condition being written over the last few years of covering Oaklawn Park, however, this racing office is constantly writing races that are designed to attract large fields. This state bred maiden special weight is restricted to fillies or mares that have started at least one time for a $30K claiming tag or less. 12 runners are slated to fill the gate in the opener today. Air Castle (#11) is the top pick for me in this spot. This four year old filly has never competed on a fast surface, running three times on this course on a wet and sealed track. She was entered with the waiver when making her first start since May in a $12,500 maiden claiming race where state bred runners were eligible to run for a $20K tag. The fact that they move her to this spot tells me that her connections think this Double Irish filly has some ability. She was buried on the rail last out but I think her outside draw in this race will help her run the race she wants to run. Smoke Show Girl (#1) debuted in that same race and she fared better than the top pick, advancing in the three path to finish second. On one hand, the outer lanes weren’t great that afternoon, so her race might be a little better than it looks on paper. She was claimed for $20K and Aaron Shorter brings her back in a protected spot, which is part of the design of this condition. He failed to record a winner in 2024 with horses running for him for the first time off the claim and this filly is buried on the rail in a full field. She didn’t show a ton of speed in her first start, so I’d worry that she might be asked to do too much in the early stages of this one. At the end of the day, there are reasons to try to play against, but if she is able to slightly improve from her last start, I think she is going to be better than this field. She’ll be an A line play for me for the multi-race wagers, but I might look for better value options with the horizontal betting. At longer odds, both Queen Wilhelmina (#5) and Chuck Wills Widow (#6) are horses that I’d think about using underneath, as well on one a few multi-race tickets as deeper savers. Queen Wilhemina ran well enough to be 4th behind both Adamantly (#3) and Tactical Express (#8) when facing $20K maiden claimers last out. She was making her first start since May that afternoon. She didn’t show much in her debut, but she showed less when going one mile at the end of the meet last spring. She was off from May until December and her first start off the bench showed some improvement. That seemed to be a the right level of competition for her, and I don’t think there’s a ton of difference between the class in this race and the class of that state bred $20K maiden claiming level. She might need one more race before see her best, but she could be a factor in this spot. The same could be said for Chuck Wills Widow. She was wide in that same race that Queen Wilhemina is coming out of. She finished evenly to be 8th that day when she was also making her first start since the beginning of May. She improved 14 Beyer Speed Figure points from her career debut to her second start last year, and a similar type of improvement could put her closer with this group.

Race 2: 

Fillies and mares will go one mile in this $50K starter allowance race which is also restricted to horses that would qualify for the N1X allowance condition. It’s hard to look past the two short prices in this race, both of whom are four year old Vino Rosso fillies. I’ll give a slight edge to Vinobello (#5) making her 5th career start in this race. She has won the two races she was supposed to win and she faltered in the two races where she was overmatched on paper. There are decent gaps of time between each of her four starts, which is not ideal. However, she has a win over this course and she is able to adapt to different situations. She might be a little quicker than Lucy Got Game (#4) breaking to her inside, but if Torres wants to go with that filly, I think Santana would be comfortable allowing his filly to stalk the pace. Lucy Got Game struggled in an off the turf race in the slop with N1X allowance company at the Fair Grounds in her last start. Prior to that, she ran well to finish close in tougher races at this condition in Kentucky. When Amoss and Torress have teamed up at Oaklawn, they’re winning at a 33% clip over the last year. Both of these fillies have a similar front end running style, so the potential to set a quick pace is there. At first glance, Sulwe (#8), would likely get the run of the race while moving into open company, however, I have concerns there. She ran a huge race to be second to a good field of sprinters when facing the boys in her first start since May. She can get two turns, but she isn’t as sharp at this distance, especially on a fast track. She hasn’t proven she can put two big efforts together in the past, so I’m not sure we’re going to see her best in this race. She’s going to take money in this spot, but I’d rather try Malibu Smart (#2) as the backup to cover my bets in the event of a pace meltdown. She’s making her second start off the layoff for Chris Hartman. She closed well to be third at this distance when facing N1X allowance foes last year. That was one of her better finishes and she definitely had a contested pace in front of her that day. The price should be better on her than it is on Sulwe, 

Race 3:

While this maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares is carded for three year olds and up, all 11 runners that entered are four year old fillies. I landed on Happy Talk (#7) to break her maiden when making her 9th career start today. Most of her races have come at longer distances, but her dam did her best work at this six furlong trip. This filly is a half to Laoban and she’s shown some ability in the past, finishing in the money in her last two starts of the 23-24 meet here. She went to the sidelines for seven months and she’s made her first two starts off the bench in one mile races at Churchill and here. She cuts back to six furlongs, which might be a good move for her. Tyler Bacon and Lukas have teamed up for four winners thus far at the meet and I think this is a good spot for this Arrogate filly. Both Racquel Blue (#5) and late to the Game (#10) are coming out of the same race here at this level where both fillies made their first career starts. Racquel Blue  went to the front and got tired late, finishing 5th. Late to the Game was away a bit slow, but made her way into 4th with a wide bid. The latter is listed at 10-1 where the former is starting at 5-1. The value is one Late to the Game, but if the inside lanes continue to be as good as they were on Friday, I’d lean toward Racquel Blue. I’ll be using both though as I prefer both of them to the two shortest prices on the morning line. 

Race 4:

Ten runners signed on for this $12,500 starter allowance race going 1 ⅛ miles. Is there anyone in this field that will keep Polterer (#6) honest in the early stages of this race? On paper, that doesn’t appear to be the case. He went off form for three races but certainly looked like his old self when he finished 2nd here with time restricted claimers last month. He has 6 wins in 13 starts over this course, and that stacks up nicely when looking at the other horse that should money in this race, Antigravity (#2). He returns to Oaklawn where he is winless in 13 starts on this oval. Polterer won twice at this level last year and figures to be able to control the tempo in this race. I think he returns to the Winner’s Circle today. Bright Spark (#9) has never been the most consistent animal, however, he was excellent here on Opening Day when dominating a better field when going 1 3/16 miles. He cut back to a mile and caught a muddy track for that effort. Horses that were in the outer lanes on that day felt like they were at a disadvantage, so as a result, I’d be willing to forgive that effort. He is a committed closer and while front end speed was valuable on Friday, closers in the outer lanes seemed to have the edge yesterday.  These should be the two that decide this race. 

Race 5: 

Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles in this $35K-$30K maiden claiming contest. My Vino (#12) doesn’t get a great draw in this race, but he’s interesting, shipping in from Zia Park for Todd Fincher. Fincher has very good numbers with runners going from maiden special weight company to maiden claiming races. He didn’t run particularly well in three sprint races in New Mexico, but it is worth noting that he is sired by Vino Rosso out of an Empire Maker mare, so there’s reason to believe that he’s going to get better as the races get longer. I’m not really fearful of anyone else in this race, so he feels like a live longshot as he tries going long for the first time. Surfin’ M (#13) is another runner that was done no favors by the post draw, but he could be a threat in this race, should he get the chance to run. He has two tries at this distance, which feels important. He battled for the early lead on a muddy course in a restricted maiden claiming race here last month. He didn’t seem to like being in between rivals and he faded badly against a better group. Compton adds blinkers for his second start of the meet. His Keeneland effort in restricted maiden special weight company was good enough to make me believe he has a better effort in the tank. Truth Bomb (#3) was claimed by Robert Medina after just missing with a similar group last time out. That race also came on a muddy course, so he has to prove that he can put up another strong Beyer Speed Figure on a fast course. Medina had a winner here yesterday and this one is bred to handle route races. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $10K starter allowance for four year olds and up going six furlongs. Espionage (#7) is an interesting play in this race, making his first start off the claim for Dan Ward. He ran in a beaten $10K claiming race two weeks ago where he drew the rail in a large field. He was in tight while exerting energy running up on the heels of his rivals while looking for room. Chel-C Bailey gave him a breather once he was in the clear and she set him down for the stretch drive, trying to split rivals. He was moving well, but had to slam on the brakes as his hole closed up. He gets a better post to go along with a jockey and trainer upgrade. He typically runs well on this course, winning four times and only finishing off the board twice in 11 starts. His last race was one of them, but had he not found trouble, I think he would have hit the board at least, and he might have won with a better trip. Vale (#4) is one of the more consistent runners in this field. He just missed in a starter allowance race last out, but his number was taken down and he was placed 6th. All three of his career wins have come at this distance. He won his first race on this course here last spring and I think he’ll be in the thick of things in this spot as well. Count de Monet (#10) is the 9-5 morning line favorite here, and I’m not exactly sure how to handle him. He was entered in a beaten $10K claiming race last month where I thought he was vulnerable when going a mile. He didn’t run great, but it was good enough to win. He’s better at one turn races, and he was good enough to win a stakes race at Prairie Meadows at this distance over the summer. He’s a former stakes winner on this oval, but his last two races were not up to his standard. I don’t like him as the favorite, but I do think he could easily win this race if he’s back to a better version of himself. 

Race 7:

The parade of starter allowance races continues here with a $30K starter allowance race going 1 1/16 miles. This race is for horses that have started at least one time for a $30K claiming tag or less since 2023, so this is typically a contentious condition. There’s a lot of speed signed on for this race, so the table is set for Auto Glide (#2) to mow them down late. He was a stakes winner over the summer at Delaware. He was pace compromised in the Deputed Testimony at Laurel and then he was given some time off. He came back in a very strong race at a condition similar to this at Churchill. That field was much better than this group and this Tiznow colt struggled that day. Compton gave him a little more time off and brings him back where he finds a cozy spot. He was sharp here last season and while he might need a race before he hits his best stride, I still think he can handle this group. Pike Place (#1) is the backup for me here. He was claimed for $50K last out where he went from last to first to win easily when going a one turn mile at Churchill. John Ortiz has struggled early on at this meet, but he’s going to get his wins this season. He’ll make his local debut and while he might be better at longer one turn races, he should get a nice set up in this race today. 

Race 8: 

The 4th straight starter allowance in a $50K starter allowance sprint for horses that are also eligible for the N1X allowance condition. This is another race where the shorter prices seem to have a distinct edge. There figures to be a lively pace battle between Sound Doctrine (#1), Mischievous M (#9), and Born Flawless (#12). That should set the table nicely for Morunning (#2) or B Sudd (#8). Morunning is the play for me, coming back to dirt after faltering on the synthetic last month at Turfway. He’s been knocking on the door in slightly longer sprint races in Kentucky. He had some rough trips in her first two career starts on this oval, but I do think he’ll appreciate the surface switch. B Sudd was a popular winner on a muddy track here last month at this level. He’s not a horse that wins a ton of races, but he often runs well. I didn’t think he had a great set up on paper last out, but that didn’t matter. The third place finisher in that last race, Rabbit Hound, came back to win here on Friday. He gets a better set up today and should be tough to deal with. 

Race 9, The $150K Pippin Stakes:

The featured race is for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. I think Steve Asmussen has Neom Beach (#9) flying under the radar in this race. She was a winner on this course last year and she ran competitive races in the three year stakes races that were preps for the Kentucky Oaks. She ran more on the turf in the summer and fall, but she’s capable on this surface. She’s making her third start off the layoff and she should sit a nice, midpack trip in this race. I think she can pull off the upset. Corningstone (#1) scored in the Mistletoe Stakes last month, which was impacted by weather and scratches. McPeek has been on fire over the last few weeks here and this five year old mare could keep the party going. She seems to be running some of the best races in her career of late. On deeper tickets, Indy Label (#2) is getting a major class test, but Matt Shirer has figured something out with this Tonalist filly. She crushed a field of $50K maiden claimers two back at Churchill. She shipped here and improved off that effort to clear the N2L condition. This field isn’t as deep as it could be, so she could take advantage if things fall her way. 

Race 10:

We’ll end the week with a state bred $30K starter allowance race going six furlongs. I think Chez Whiz (#5) has a big chance in this race. He caught a muddy track in a state bred N2L claiming race here last month, which is not his preferred footing. His race was over at the break though as he was bumped hard and relegated to last. It was hard to make up ground on that course, and he could do no better than 7th that day. He makes his second start off the bench while facing a field where he fits well. I love what I’m seeing from Tyler Bacon and while I’m not expecting to get 12-1 (ML), I think 6-1 or better is quite fair. Strike Ridge (#3) reunites with Chris Hartman after a disappointing two race trip to Lone Star over the summer. He was a strong maiden special weight winner here last season and he went on to finish 5th in the Rainbow Stakes here in April (about three lengths behind Chez Whiz). He’s been working very well and could be sitting on a strong effort off the bench. Classic Cinema (#11) faces winners for the first time after breaking his maiden in a state bred $20K maiden claiming race here last month. I think he could be more fit for this race, but he is taking a decent step up the class ladder.  6-1 (ML) might be a little light, but if he can build off his last, he’s going to be close. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 34/150 (22.7%, $378.00, $2.52 ROI)

January 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 12/50 (24.0%, $142.40, $2.85 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)