Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis (12:15 CT…Updated 1st Post) – 1/23/25 – By Eric Solomon

We’re back with a 10 race, special Thursday afternoon card today at Oaklawn. This was the card that was supposed to be run on Monday, however, it was pushed back 72 hours due to the below average temperatures in the area. The featured race this afternoon is the $145K Byerly Turk Overnight Stakes for four year olds and up, dashing six furlongs. First post this afternoon is 12:30 PM (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start the day with an optional $62,500 claiming/$50K starter allowance race for three year old fillies, sprinting six furlongs. This race starts with Golden Irish (#1) for Tom Amoss and Cristian Torres. She was sensational when breaking her maiden at Keeneland on debut, romping home by almost 15 lengths for Brad Cox in a $30K maiden claiming race. She was claimed out of that race and she came back in a $50K starter allowance race in the mud at Churchill. She also drew the rail that day, but she struggled to keep up in the early stages through a very aggressive first half mile. She hung around to grab second in that spot, but the winner was clear. She remains in a protected race and like the majority of the field, she’ll get Lasix for the first time. She’s listed at 8-5 on the morning line and is likely to go off at odds lower than that when all is said and done. She ran well on a fast track and speed was good on the first day of the racing week last week, under similar weather circumstances. She’ll be on my tickets, but I do think there’s better value to be had. I’ll try Kentucky Smokeshow (#4) as the top pick in this race. She was very good when winning on debut in a restricted maiden special weight contest at Churchill in September. She made her next spot in a starter allowance race going the one turn mile there, and she met a very good field where the top three finishers all came back to win. The winner, Book’em, ran a monster race in her next start, embarrassing a field of NX foes by over 11 lengths. I don’t think this filly wanted to go that far, so Hartman wheeled her back quickly where she never looked comfortable when  competing on a sloppy and sealed race course. He gave her a little extra time off and now brings to Arkansas where she’ll be entered with a tag for the first time. When looking at her earnings and purchase price, that decision doesn’t really matter to me in this instance. I think she should be able to sit a trip similar to the one she got on debut, which should give her every chance to beat the favorite if she is good enough. Complex Secret (#9) is the backup play for me in this race, facing winners for the first time today. She ran in some decent races prior to her first victory, so this might not be the major class hike that it can be when leaving the maiden ranks. Ken McPeek has had a great meet so far, winning with 11 of 44 starters, which gives him a three win lead in the standings over Steve Asmussen, who has saddled more than twice as many runners. She’s another runner that is entered with the tag for the first time, which feels like the right move seeing as how I think she’d struggle at the N1X level right now. 

Race 2: 

An overflow field signed up for this $12,500 maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. As per usual, Arkansas breds are eligible to run with a $20K tag. It’s hard to get excited about taking 5-2 (ML) on Rocket Night (#7), seeing as how he’s lost all 14 of his career starts. Multiple losses seems to be the norm at this level , so I’ll try Brinson (#1) in his third career start today. He was okay with $15K maidens in Indiana when making his debut in November. Genaro Garcia brought him to Turfway where he faced $50K-$40K maiden claimers where he was outclassed while racing on a different surface, which he didn’t seem to enjoy. He drops to the right level of competition and gets back on the dirt for a barn that has had a good amount of success at this meet. He’s worth another shot with this group. Chou Chou d’Aven (#6) made improvements in his second dirt route at this level last month. He had an outside post and conceded a decent amount of ground going into the first turn, which he wasn’t really able to overcome. He still finished with some interest after trying to get breaking well and trying to get involved in the early stages. I think he’s a candidate to move forward in this spot as well. On deeper tickets, Greers Ferry (#3) might be competing at the right level at this point in his career. He’s 0-19, which has to be acknowledged. However, he did face better foes here last season and he narrowly lost in three straight races, which all were photo finishes. After looking sluggish early on last out, he did run on with some interest, despite a less than ideal trip. He drops to the bottom for the first time and is worth considering if his odds float over his 5-1 morning line figure. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this $35K-$30K N3L claiming race. I think Divine Gal (#3) is a sneaky play here. She makes her third start off the layoff this afternoon for Donnie Von Hemel. She started her career with two consecutive wins here and at Churchill, both of which were carded for six furlongs. She struggled in the Mockingbird Stakes in her third career start, but that was at a time of the meet when the outside lanes weren’t very good last season. After that, she faltered in three straight races, losing by double digit lengths. Two of those races were at two turns though and the April loss was her last start before going on a seven month break. She came back with a decent effort against beaten $30K claimers at Churchill at the end of November. She came back to run in the mud in a two turn race at this level on this course in her most recent start. I don’t think she wants to go two turns and there are multiple baked in excuses for her bad effort last month. The course has played very kindly to horses that come from off the pace in the outer lanes  when the course is fast for the better part of this meet. I think this is a good spot for her to be under the radar, while having a decent shot to run them down late. Gloriette (#1) is the morning line favorite and she has one way to go, which is all about her front end speed. On a fast track, she has her best shot, but the rail post commits her to go. Horses like this have struggled during the current meet, however, we did see speed and the inside paths look pretty good on Friday last week. That was a day where the temperatures were slightly warmer after freezing temperatures were prevalent during the week. We’re following a similar weather pattern here, so early in the card, it’s going to be hard for me to take a firm stand against this filly today. She’s a backup for me as the favorite, but if speed appears to be holding in the first two races, I’d probably move her up to the A line. On deeper tickets, there is definitely value to be had with Opposite the Crowd (#10), who starts off at 20-1 in this race. She was five lengths better than Gloriette in N1X allowance company in Indiana in August, which was two starts ago for this filly. I had some concerns with her being entered in a beaten $10K claiming race last time out when she was making her first start since that race. John Haran claimed her out of that race and he doesn’t have great numbers first off the claim. She is second off the layoff though and her best effort is likely good enough to beat these. 

Race 4:

Arkansas bred three year olds will sprint six furlongs in this maiden special weight sprint. Gettinby (#8) is the morning line favorite after a strong effort in open company in a maiden special weight race in the slop at Churchill. He finished 5th that day in a five furlong race. The speed figures came back stronger than any of the others with experience in this field, and there’s not a lot of encouraging clues from the debut runners. Since that race, he’s worked well, posting faster times than his rivals. At even money, he’s not a great bet, but there’s no one else in the body of the field that I get behind with any real conviction. However, should Four O Nine (#14) draw into the body of the field, that would be the horse I could get behind at a price. He’s sired by Met Mile winner, Bee Jersey, who is getting 20% winners with debut runners in dirt sprints. He’s the first foal to run from a mare that won on debut on the turf. The works are decent and the outside post could be beneficial. He is cross-entered in a race at this level for three year olds and up on Saturday, but I’d think he would opt to run here if he can. Jamie Gonzalez had a debut winner in state bred maiden company last weekend and he’ll send out Perfecto (#3) in this spot. His filly winner last weekend had a few much sharper workouts, however, this one’s dam was a winner at first asking. While none of her three other foals to make it to the track scored at first asking, they have been useful runners. To too Twentytwo (#6) debuted in a state bred $40K maiden claiming race here last month. Moquett’s runners are rarely fully cranked at first asking, so there’s reason to believe that he could get better here. These are the two runners I’d use underneath. 

Race 5: 

Beaten $10K-$8K claimers will wrap up the Early  Pick-4 and Pick-5 wagers. Brad Cox is currently 0-25 at this meet and he shows up with Vivir Con Alegria (#3)  in this bottom level claiming race that was recently claimed for $40K when he last started 2 ½ months ago. He’s listed at 6-5 on the morning line, and I’m not sure I’d be willing to take 6-1 on him here. There are a lot of red flags here, so this is one I’m not interested in touching. Burning Leaves (#5) is the choice for me in this race, making his second start off the layoff. He faced a tougher field in his local debut and he didn’t help his cause when breaking slowly from the gate. He’s run races at Canterbury that are good enough to beat this group and I think he’ll show that form in his second try over this oval. Jolly Tommy (#1) is another runner that is making their second start of the meet and his second off the layoff. While he’s never won at this distance, but he’s run credible races when going two turns at Delta. Timothy Martin and Tyler Bacon have teamed up for a pair of wins at this meet. Granada Flavor (#11) misfired in a starter allowance race in the slop in his first start when shipping here from California. Peter Miller has done well with the limited number of runners that he’s brought to this meet. This drop in class figures to help his cause. 

Race 6: 

Time restricted $30K claimers will sprint six furlongs in the race that kicks off the Late Pick-5. Synthesis (#7) made his first start since August three weeks ago when facing a highly contentious field of open $30K-$25K claimers. He drew the rail and was caught behind horses pretty much every step of the way. He finished 10th, but he was less than three lengths behind the winner. Jacboson has strong numbers with runners in their second starts off the layoff. In spite of the finish, his last effort was better than his prior two starts on sealed courses prior to going to the sidelines. He figures to get a better trip in another contentious race. Both Bron and Brow (#1) and Hi Yah (#11) met on 11/23 in a competitive Louisiana bred sprint race. Bron and Brow, who is the 5-2 morning line favorite, was third in that race and Hi Yah, who is starting at 20-1, finished 5th, two lengths behind the favorite. Bron and Brow was dull in another stakes race where Hi Yah had a disastrous trip in an open starter allowance race here in the mud. From a value standpoint, Hi Yah can compete with this field on his best day. He clearly had an excuse last time out, and has a significant post advantage over his rival. He is dropping in class and I’m expecting him to run a better race in this spot. The success that Mark Casse has had at this meet is hard to ignore as he’s taking over the training of Bron and Brow. He’s definitely going to need to work out a trip from his rail post in this race, but he is certainly live at this level. While it’s hard for me to take him on top in the vertical wagers, I think he’s too good to leave off some of the multi-race wagers. The same could be said for Got Thunder (#2) in the stall next door. He finished 4th, beaten less than a length in the same race that Synthesis is coming out of on January 4th. He’s a fairly consistent horse whose last win came in the middle of August with N2X allowance types at Monmouth. He became eligible for this condition a few weeks ago and should be in the mix once again.

Race 7:

This is a $40K starter allowance race for horses that have started at least one time for a $40K tag or less from 2022-24. This is a very salty 12 horse race where Disco Ball (#7) is going to put his six race winning streak on the line. He was a winner here in the mud last out when facing $30K starter allowance types. While he’s put forth strong efforts during this six race run, he’s only beaten 25 horses. He’s been on the lead for almost every step of the way in each of those races. After faring well in small fields, he’s going to be a short price in a large field. He’s handled pace pressure in those races, but facing this many horses is a little bit of a different animal. There should be lively pace here so I’m looking for a horse that could come over the top with a powerful late surge. If horses are able to get home with that type of trip earlier on the card, I think the Arkansas bred, Lochmoor (#12) has a big chance in this race. He faced a state bred starter allowance group on New Year’s Day last season and despite encountering some traffic issues, he exploded once he found a seam and won by four widening lengths. He was very good in stakes company throughout the meet, scoring in the Arkansas Breeders’ Championship in his last start. There is no doubt that this is a tougher spot than he started his campaign in last year, however,he’s going to get a solid pace to set up his late closing kick. He’s been working well and Cristian Torres is taking the mount on this one. I think he has a huge chance in this race. Devil’s Tower (#4) is going to be the backup for me here. He faced Disco Ball in a five horse field last out and was in chase mode from the jump. The race dynamics certainly didn’t work in his favor that day. If Arrieta can get him to settle off the early pace , he could easily get first run on the closers. He won a stakes race at Delta going from last to first last year. That hasn’t been his running style of late, but sitting in the middle of the pack and making a run could be the right strategy, if he can pull it off. 

Race 8: 

Four year olds and up will sprint six furlongs in this N2L allowance race. Many of these runners squared off in a race at this level last month, where Wendelssohn was absolutely loaded. He drew off to win by over three lengths and he’ll take a swing in the overnight stakes race coming up next. Go Captain (#5) was hard sent for the lead from his outside draw in that race and he ran well to be second after doing all of the heavy lifting up front. No one could with him in that race and there doesn’t appear to be any new faces that are going to force the issue in the early stages, so he is going to have every chance to wire this group. He finished in front of many of these last out, so I’m going to include him, but he’s going to have to do a better job of harnessing his early speed in order to win this. I think Eglise (#7) has the best chance to cross the finish line first in this spot. Chris Hartman trains Wendelssohn and I think he’s going to have another runner take down the speed here today. He struggled last out at Churchill, but was gelded after that start, which could offer some clues toward his dull outing. He’s cutting back from route races to sprints, and I think he’s the kind of horse that could make this six furlong distance work well for him. He has some early speed too, and I’m a little concerned that Alberto Pusac is going to be a little too aggressive in the first quarter mile. However, his distance foundation should give him an advantage when finishing this race. Miracle Worker (#8) is coming out of the same race that Go Captain was in. He was flat that day, faded late after going wide in the far turn. He was in the second flight of runners that were chasing Go Captain. Perhaps he wound up being too close to the front end that day. His lone win came on this course and I do think he can rebound today.

Race 9, The $145K Byerly Turk Overnight Stakes:

The timing of this overnight stakes race is a little odd, considering there is a $150K listed stakes race for the same age group here on Saturday. However, this seems like a good spot for a horse like Banishing (#5) to try stakes company. He was lingering in allowance company, but he’s really come into his own since Lawrence P. Roman purchased him this summer. He shipped here and beat a stakes quality allowance field at this distance, stopping the clock at 1:09:55. The raw times at this meet have not been very fast and for as many races that are carded at six furlongs, not many have stopped the clock under 1:10. (only 4 of 90 races at six furlongs were in the 1:09 range). Both Banishing and Wendelssohn (#9) are tied for the fastest six furlong time of the meet. The course was playing a little slower on 12/20 when Banishing put up a 103 Beyer. I have more trust that Banishing can run back to that effort in this race today. He clearly likes the course and he aced the test in his first career start at six furlongs. I think he’s going to be tough to beat. Booth (#8) has never lived up to the hype after a monstrous debut at Keeneland in the fall of 2023. His two best efforts came when he was on the front end for the better part of the race. He’s faced some fast horses where he’s been in chase mode, but there’s not a ton of other speed for him to contend with here. I’d like to see Erik Asmussen be aggressive with him in his third start off the layoff. If he gets to the lead, he might be tough to run down. Of a Revolution (#7) was flat in the late stages of his most recent start here in the Ring the Bell Stakes. He was making his first start since August in that race, so there’s reason to believe that this six year old gelding has another move forward in this spot. He missed a lot of time though, so how high his ceiling is remains to be seen. 

Race 10:

The day ends with another $12,500 maiden claiming race, this one for fillies and mares going six furlongs. This is another spot where a horse on the AE list might be the runner that is best suited to taking down a short priced favorite. Coldasice (#13) ran a big race on debut at this level in the mud last month. She came with a powerful six wide move where she hit the front, but she was unable to hold off the race winner in the late stages. Ron Moquett’s horses tend to improve a little bit in their second tries, so she feels like one to watch if she can make it in. If she doesn’t make it, the clear horse to watch is the Saffie Joseph runner, Get Frosty (#7), who is plummeting in class. She took money, but offered little in a maiden special weight race here last month. Joseph has had four other starters at this meet and three of them found their way to the Winner’s Circle. There’s no mistaking that this is a huge drop in class, but the reality is that if she ran same dull race she ran last month, but at this lower level, I don’t see many of these beating her. If she runs back to her Gulfstream races at the end of 2023, I don’t see anyone coming close to her. Most likely she’ll split the difference, and if that’s the case, I think she’s going to be tough. The deeper saver for me in this spot is Range Life (#12). She was claimed for $20K as an Arkansas bred at this level last out. She was making her first start since the end of the 23-24 meet , and while she wasn’t terrible, she was never a threat despite being hammered down to 6-5 at the windows. She ran better on debut in the spring, so perhaps she could take a step forward for her new connections. The price should be more attractive today.

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 34/160 (21.3%, $378.00, $2.36 ROI)

January 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 12/60 (20.0%, $142.40, $2.37 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)