Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis -1/26/25 – By Eric Solomon

Ten more races will end the week of racing at Oaklawn Park. The featured race today is an optional claiming/allowance race for three year olds that could potentially produce a starter or two for the Rebel Stakes here next month. Reminder, that due to the weather-related cancellations earlier in the month, Oaklawn has carded another Thursday card this week, which will be covered in the space. First post this afternoon is scheduled for 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll light the candle with a $10K starter allowance race for four year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. This race is for horses that have run for a $10K claiming tag or less in one of their last two starts, so the overall quality of this race is less than the normal $10K starter allowance condition at Oaklawn. Six of the eight runners in this race were claimed in one of their last two starts and five are running in this race first off the claim. Mad Adam (#6) comes into this race after a two race winning streak.  Todd Fincher doesn’t participate too much in the claiming game, but he’s 2-9 with the nine runners in their first start off the claim over the last five years. There isn’t a lot of speed signed on for this race, so he should be forwardly placed once again. He went to the sidelines for 13 months before coming back to the races at the end of August. He’s been very sharp in the four races since that. He should get a similar trip after beating some of these three weeks ago. He was 5-1 and Rocco Strong (#8) was 9-10 in that race. The odds disparity should be closer, but Rocco Strong is the morning line favorite, and if he’s the post time favorite once again, I think there’s still value on Mad Adam. Boogie Bode (#2) was third in that same race last time out. He tends to run his best races when going two turns on this course. The added ½ furlong should help his cause. This feels like a spot where he can improve. 

Race 2: 

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this beaten $35K claiming race. Six of the nine runners entered are eligible for the N3L condition, while the other three are eligible for the non-winners of a race in six months. The morning line favorite is Blaze On (#1), whose last win came on July 25th in N1X allowance company at Delaware, making her eligible for the N1Y condition by exactly one day. She was claimed for $20K at Churchill when facing open company there. She’s getting class relief here despite running for a claiming tag that is $15K more than she was claimed for. It feels like Shirer had this race bookmarked in the condition book. These are all things that I typically gravitate toward, however, she hasn’t started in over two months and Shirer is asking her to go longer than she ever has before on the racetrack. I think she’s going to be overbet and I see a trio of horses that should offer better prices that have a chance in this spot. Marshside Mama (#5) is the pick in this race. She tried the local N1X allowance condition when drawing an outside post. She was stuck on the outside for the duration of the race and never fired her best shot on a course where the inside lanes were better. She cleared that condition at Prairie Meadows three starts ago before trying the turf against a loaded N2X allowance field at Keeneland two starts ago. This will be a decent bit of class relief as she’s dropping to the lowest level of competition in her career. She’s 0-4 on this course, but all four of those races came in N1X allowance company. Saranac Lake (#8) had a lot of trouble in the first furlong at the N1X level in her last start. She hopped at the break, losing position in a full field when going into the first turn. She was pinched back as they made the first bend, finding herself farther off the lead than she’s typically comfortable with. She made a strong middle move to get within two lengths of the leader, but she was wide on the course and was unable to sustain that bid. She won her previous two dirt starts by a combined 13 ½ lengths, so with the drop in class, it feels like she’s looking for the “Goldilocks” spot in terms of competition. Tyler Bacon opts to ride her instead of Interstella (#4), who also makes sense in this race. She made her first start in three months when going six furlongs in a $30K starter allowance race here. She’s best at two turns and that race was clearly designed to get her ready for a local route race. She was very good over the same against fellow Iowa breds at Prairie Meadows. Look for a better effort from her in this spot as well. 

Race 3:

Time restricted $8K claimers will sprint six furlongs in this race. Super Brady (#10) was unable to draw into a similar race yesterday, but he’s found a spot today which I think is an even better fit for him. He struggled against a much better $15K-$10K open claiming field in his local debut three weeks ago. His typical dirt form would likely make him very tough to beat at this lower level. He just missed with open $20K claimers at Remington two back, which I feel is a little bit better group than the time restricted $8K claimers here. I think he’s a prime candidate to rebound and score for a barn that doesn’t win a lot of races here. Fire Bryan (#5) is the backup for me in this race, making his second start off the layoff for Timothy Martin. Interstella in the previous race is following a similar pattern. He was outclassed in the same race that Super Brady was in last time out. Martin gets Tyler Bacon to ride this one, who should run a better race with the class relief and his second start off the layoff. 

Race 4:

Here’s another $10K starter allowance race, but this one for horses that have started for a $10K tag at least once in their last three starts. Similar to the first race, this qualifying makes this a weaker starter allowance than the typical $10K starter races they card at Oaklawn. That means that both El Diablo Rojo (#7) and Ram (#8) are getting hidden class relief, coming out of a $10K starter allowance where horses only had to run for the $10K tag once since the start of 2023. El Diablo Rojo beat a better field at 13-1 on opening weekend, coming from off the pace to score. He rallied to be second when beaten by Therideofalifetime, who is a speed horse that caught a speed favoring course that afternoon. He’s eligible for this race because he ran with the $10K in an optional $10K claiming/$8K starter allowance at Del Mar three starts ago. I like that Williams is taking advantage of this condition, and I think he has a big chance with this group. However, I was high on Espionage (#5) on Sunday when he was entered in a $10K starter allowance that also had the qualifier of not winning a race in three months. He defected out of that spot in favor of this one, which is theory is easier. He makes his first start off the Dan Ward claim and his second start off the layoff. He has big efforts in the past that would win this race. I think he’s candidate to move forward in this race and if we get close to the 10-1 morning line price, I’d have to shoot my shot. He’s my top pick in this race. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 wagers end with an optional $60K claiming/$50K starter allowance sprint for three year olds. That was a very nice debut score from Gryphon (#4) with $50K claimers three weeks ago at Gulfstream. There were four races run on the dirt that day in Hallandale, Florida, and the other three were won on the front end. He came from last after having to take up shortly after the break. He switched leads nicely at the top of the stretch and powered home to win with ease. I’m not sure who he beat in that race, but his effort was notable. He’ll get a class rest as Mark Casse ships him here from Southern Florida. Cristian Torres is 4-9 (44%) when riding for this barn at Oaklawn. I think he can go 2-2 to start his career. Farley Hall (#1) was outsprinted to the front when making his first start off the Peter Miller claim at this level  last month. He stalked from second, but the winner led every step of the way once he was able to get over to the better part of the racetrack. I don’t think anyone will get him off the rail spot in this race, and that move worked well when he broke his maiden two back at Del Mar. Waco (#6) scored with $50K maiden claimers in his 4th career start a few weeks ago. His Beyer Figures have improved with each start, which is not uncommon for Lukas’s horses. This feels like a reasonable spot for his first shot against winners. I think he’s another runner that can be competitive at this level.

Race 6: 

Three year old fillies will go 1 1/16 miles in maiden special weight race that drew a field of ten. After going 0-25 to start off the meet, Brad Cox is in the midst of having himself a weekend, winning five times in the last three days. He’ll send out the favorite, Calamity (#8) in this race. She was very good when finishing a close second in an off the turf maiden special weight race at the Fair Grounds in her last start. He’s listed at 8-5 and if yesterday’s wagering patterns mean anything today, she’ll go into the gate at a lower number. While she is the one to beat, I can’t play her at even money with this group. I’ll use her as a B line play in the horizontal wagers. I’m interested in Princess Aliyah (#3) met a runaway winner with Take Charge Milady, who we saw dominate the Martha Washington Stakes yesterday. She’s another D. Wayne Lukas runner that keeps getting a little bit better with each start. I think the wet track wasn’t helping her cause last out. I see her as a horse that could move forward in this race, which is lacking a true standout. I don’t think there’s any way we’re getting 15-1 on her after seeing the races yesterday, but I do think she’s worth playing in this race. The other A line play for me in this race is Achieve (#1). I liked her last month when she faltered in the mud at this level. She stretches out to two turns for third career start, so taking one more shot at this pricy filly on the dirt feels reasonable. She is second off the layoff and Mark Casse’s runners have been sharp at this meet. She’s the first foal to run from a Tapit mare that was a two-time winner on turf. I suspect this filly will be off to the grass if she doesn’t fire here, but I also think the distance and the fast track should help her cause. 

Race 7:

$30K N2L claimers will go six furlongs here. Airborne Elite (#3) is the one to beat in this race. He got a little tired against a similar group when trying to get the 1 1/16 mile distance last out. He held third in that spot, but was claimed by Cipriano Contreras. This is an upgrade and a barn that spots their horses well first off the claim. His 2023 was excellent and this is now his third start off a lengthy layoff. I think we’re going to see some improvement which should make him a fairly easy winner against what feels like a pretty lackluster field. Parkway (#11) makes some sense as a short priced backup, but his recent form isn’t the greatest. He drops to a level below his $40K claiming price after six starts off the claim. The cutback in distance along with the class relief should be useful. However, I think the top pick is better. The Contreras barn also sends out Pass Line (#13), who would need a defection in order to participate in this race today. He was sliding down the class ladder last year until he landed at this level where he was a close third in March. He went to the sidelines and resurfaced in an allowance race where he was completely overmatched. He’s second off the layoff today and would be a reasonable substitution should his stablemate not compete. Emmanuel Esquivel is named to ride both. 

Race 8: 

Ten fillies and mares will go in this $25K-$20K maiden claiming race going six furlongs. Although the race is open to three year olds and up, all runners are four or five years old today. I’m going to take a shot with Flat Stormin (#1) in this race. She’s dropping in class after three starts in maiden special weight company. She didn’t fare well on sloppy tracks in her first two career starts at Churchill, but she looked a little better when getting on a fast track here for the first time last month. While that wasn’t the strongest race for the condition, she is definitely getting class relief while dropping to this level. I don’t love her rail draw, but I think she’s worth considering in this race today. Nandina (#5) hasn’t been seen on the racetrack since a third place finish in maiden special weight company at Keeneland back in October of 2023. She appears to have been a private purchase, and while John Prather doesn’t have encouraging numbers over the last year, this filly has been working well over the local oval. She’s a wild card for sure in this race, but there’s not really a standout here. I think she should be closer to 10-1, and if she goes that high from her 6-1 morning line, I’d be willing to take a shot. Cruise Missile (#7) ran twice here last season and his first race was excellent. Something was amiss after the second start as he went to the sidelines for seven months. He struggled with maiden special weight company at Churchill, but did run a little better when facing $50K maiden claimers at Keeneland when he was last seen on the track. He’s been away for another three months, and it looks like he was off for 30 days after the Keeneland race. He’s been working consistently every two weeks or so since. It’s good to see the Derby winning jockey, Brian Hernandez, make his seasonal debut at Oaklawn this afternoon. 

Race 9:

The featured race today is an optional $200K claiming/N2L allowance race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. This feels like a race that is hopeful to produce a starter for the Rebel Stakes next month. Brian Hernandez made the business trip here presumably to ride Handsome Pants (#7) for Ken McPeek. McPeek notched a win on the Oaks Trail yesterday with Take Charge Milady, who was a much the best winner of the Martha Washington. Hernandez was tasked with riding the Derby Winner, Mystik Dan in the Pegasus instead. This Daredevil colt debuted like a good thing at Churchill at this distance in September, earning a strong 81 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort. That race was good enough to take a shot in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his next start. He struggled to keep pace with the likes of East Avenue that day, but has been sidelined since. This feels like a good starting point and the presence of Hernandez tells me that the barn is high on this horse. He’s a definite player, but I prefer Brodeur (#6) on the stretch out today. He ran a big race to break his maiden in his second career start when facing a nice field here last month. He’s bred to get longer distances, being sired by Nyquist, out of a Pulpit mare. Isaac Castillo retains the mount for Mark Casse, who has other live runners on this card. He feels like the one that the favorite will have to beat. 

Race 10:

The week will conclude with a state bred N1X allowance race for four year olds and up, going one mile. Cybertown (#4) followed a similar pattern last year when coming back off the layoff. He ran in a six furlong sprint, where he wasn’t involved, but then he was much better at two turns in his next start. He was claimed out of that race and had a very good summer before getting a little flat at Remington. Ingrid Mason gave him some time off and brought him back in a six furlong race at this level where he ran well to be third. I think he can take a step forward in his second start off the layoff, while getting back to a distance that better suits him. His 7-2 morning line figure would be a very desirable price for me. Assuming the top pick isn’t absolutely hammered at the windows, I see this trio of runners from outside stalls all being logical underneath horses that could be worth using as backups on deeper tickets. Burlsworth (#13)needs a defection to face winners for the first time. He ran well in a sprint to break his maiden three weeks ago. His best career race came in his third career start, which was when he stretched out to two turns after two sprints. I think the outside draw is going to be a challenge, but I think he has a live chance in this one. Holus Bolus (#12) is making his first start since the Fourth of July when he was a non-factor in an open allowance race at Lone Star. He ran some decent races on this course last season and he’s run well when fresh. The post isn’t ideal, but I think he has a shot here if he brings his A game. Changing Times (#10) makes his first start of the meet for Bret Calhoun. He’s all about early speed, so I don’t think the tactics are going to be a surprise. Arrieta is likely going to send for the lead and try to hold off whoever gets rolling late. The short stretch might help his cause here. He’s going to be under pressure, but he does have the ability to wire this field if he can shake loose early. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 41/192 (21.4%, $419.40, $2.20 ROI)

January 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 19/92 (20.7%, $183.80, $2.00 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)