Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 1/31/25 – By Eric Solomon

January ends with a 10 race Friday afternoon card at Oaklawn. The co-featured races today are a pair of optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance sprints going six furlongs. The 7th race is open and the 9th race at this same condition is reserved for fillies and mares. We’ve regularly seen stakes competitors graduate from races like this in years past.  First post this afternoon is scheduled for 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

A field of eight three year old fillies will go one mile in a $30K maiden claiming which will start the day at Oaklawn. Dinahs Girl (#4) is stretching out for the first time after six sprint races. She seems to keep running the same race, which would likely put her underneath in some of the vertical exotics, but I don’t really see her as a win candidate, especially at short odds. I think there’s a better case to be made for the second choice, Fearless Lady (#3), who stumbled out of the gate in that race. While the stumble itself was not awful, it didn’t took this filly a few precious seconds to recover. She was last in the early stages, spotting this field several lengths going into the first turn. She came with a mild bid before flattening out. She takes a fairly significant drop in class and retains the services of the meet’s leading rider, Cristian Torres. She is going to be the one beat in this race. I was looking for a few runners that could have some upset potential in this spot, and I thought both Alltail (#1) and Kerry’s Kiss (#5) could offer some value. Alltail debuted in a seven furlong race at Churchill for $50K maiden claimers. She was last for the better part of the race before coming with a wide bid where she was able to pass a few tiring rivals. She gets Lasix for the first time while dropping in class for John Ortiz. She’s sired by Mineshaft, so there’s reason to believe that the added distance will be a plus. Kerry’s Kiss is an Arkansas bred filly that is moving from state bred maiden special weight company to an open maiden claiming race. She ran well enough in her debut, but was awful in her second try. There was some bumping at the break as she started near the back of the field. She advanced well to be 5th going into the turn, but she was not cornering well at all, while getting out badly. She was last of nine that day while facing a better field. She tries two turns and gets a jockey upgrade. She’s sired by Vino Rosso out of an Olmodavar mare, so there’s reason to believe that she’ll improve at longer distances as well.

Race 2: 

Fillies and mares travel 1 1/16 miles in a beaten $12,500-$10,00 claiming race. I see It’sfiftyshadestime (#5) as the one to beat in this race. She was claimed by Jonas Gibson out of an open $12,500-$10,000 claiming race on the Tapeta at Turfway in her most recent start. After a strong effort there two back, she came up short in that last start. She comes back to Oaklawn where she ran well in her last two starts of the 23-24 meet. She left here and was an impressive winner in open claiming company at Churchill. I like that she’s getting class relief in this spot, without being risked for less money than she was claimed for. Her last few dirt efforts are good enough to beat this field. She moves into a high percentage barn who has strong numbers first off the claim. All signs point to a trip to the Winner’s Circle. Marina’s Gold (#2) is the backup play for me in this spot. She makes her third start off the layoff after two efforts that were okay, but maybe slightly below her best prior to the break. Walter De La Cruz has ridden well at this meet and he’ll get the return call for Dewaine Loy.

Race 3:

This is another claiming race for fillies and mares, this one for four year olds and up, running with a $30K-$25K claiming tag. I’ll try Key to Success (#6) on top in this race for Kim Puhl. She’ll make her third start of the meet while taking a significant drop in class. She wasn’t terrible in N1X allowance company two back, but trouble at the start did not help her cause in the last try at that level. She’s 0-11 at Oaklawn, but all of those 11 races came against better fields. It’s a similar story for Chandana (#8), coming out of N2X allowance races. Her local record is not good, but she is a nine time winner that has had success elsewhere. She just missed in the Poinsettia Stakes here last season, but she hasn’t shown evidence of being able to run the same kind of races since then. This is the softest field she’s faced in a while, so that may be enough for a wake-up performance with this level. Rose Palace (#7) was 4th with starter allowance company here in her local debut for David Jacobson. She was a winner two back with $32K claimers at Churchill though, suggesting that this feels like the right level of competition for her at this stage of her career. 

Race 4:

$30K-$25K maiden claimers will sprint six furlongs here. Gypsy Mischief (#6) and Devilish Desire (#8) are coming out of a strong maiden special weight race where the winner, Baddest Good Boy, came back to score in a N1X allowance race last week and the 4th place finisher, Viking, also came back last week to win against a strong maiden special weight field. Devilish Desire had four straight third place finishes to start his career before finishing 4th in February on the turf. He went to the sidelines and resurfaced here at the end of December, while running for a new barn. He was flat in that race, finishing 5th, and now he takes a deep drop in class to this maiden claiming level. He doesn’t have to improve from his last start to beat this group. Halfway Tempted (#9) ran a solid race in his debut at Churchill when going six furlongs. He stretched out to 1 1/16 and finished third, while racing on the wrong lead. Steve Asmussen claimed him and had him gelded after his last start. He gave him a little extra time off and brings him back in a sprint race two months later. I’d like to see him get his act together in the stretch, which could easily be the difference between winning and losing this race. He’s interesting at or around his 6-1 morning line figure though. I’ll use Gypsy Mischief as a backup in this spot on the drop in class. He showed a lot of speed before fading in the same key race that the top pick ran in. Once it was clear he was going to be last, Vazquez eased up on this colt. After the weather related cancellation on Thursday, speed may be a valuable asset on this course today. If that appears to be the case in the first few races, I’d likely upgrade his chances. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 ends with a beaten $10K-$8K claiming race. Permafrost (#2) is the morning line favorite, making his first start off the Brad Cox claim. Eyes are going to gravitate to his 46% win percentage with runners first off the claim since January 1st, 2024. He’s 35% with those runners in a five year sample and more recently, he has won with his last two runners first off the claim at Oaklawn. It’s worth noting that both of those runners were claimed and then dropped significantly in class. He claimed this one for $12,500 for his son, Blake, and now runs him back in a $10,000 claiming race. While it’s a drop in class, I do think it’s worth pointing out that if you set the winning Beyer par at 70 for this race, this horse only has one race in 25 career starts that would beat this field. While both Ravin’s Town (#7) and K Crown (#9)are more enticing shorter priced options in this race, I’ll try taking Vulcan (#4) on top. He came up empty against a better field of time restricted $30K claimers here last week. He’s shown the ability to bounce back from a dull effort and run well on a quick turnaround in past starts. So dropping in class may be the ticket here. K Crown is another runner that is taking a large drop in class. He was sharp two back but he misfired in his last. He’s made eight career starts, but his last two were his first dirt sprints. He’s interesting in his third start off the layoff. Ravin’s Town (#7) fared better than K Crown in the same $35K-$30K N2L claiming race last time around. He’s one of many that prefers to race on the lead in this race, but I do think he can compete as a stalker. 

Race 6: 

Three and four year old fillies will travel six furlongs in this N2L allowance race. Pretty Layla (#3) and Brunch Punch (#8) squared off in a race at this level for four year olds and up 13 days ago. Both fillies will take the opportunity to get a little class relief while facing a field that has many newly turned three year olds running at the same level. Pretty Layla took a big step forward in that race and was two lengths better than her rival. I think she’s quicker than Brunch Punch in the early stages of the race, and Brunch Punch isn’t the same horse when she’s not racing on the lead. I think there’s a good chance that speed will be good today, as I’m expecting a track that is drying out after some rain yesterday. She feels like the one to beat in this race. Perhaps the bigger threat to the top pick could be her stablemate, Kentucky Smokeshow (#5). I liked her chances in an optional claiming/starter allowance here last week, but she opted out of that race in favor of this one, where the total purse is $63K more. Her lone dirt sprint on a fast course was a strong debut win at Churchill in September. She ran into Book’Em two back when going a mile at Churchill and that one came back to crush allowance foes in her next start there. I’ll give her a pass for the effort in the slop in her last start. I think this is a much tougher spot than the race that she scratched out of, but the fact that she did feels like a vote of confidence from what Chris Hartman is seeing from her when training. 

Race 7:

The boys will go six furlongs in the first of two optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance races. The story of this race might be who didn’t draw into the body of this field. Nash (#14) cleared the N1X condition when winning the Hot Springs Stakes here last season. He came back to run second behind the Preakness winner, Seize the Grey in the Pat Day Mile. His last start came in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens, where he was all but eliminated the break. He’ll need two defections in order to compete here, so I’d have to think that he’ll stay home at the Fair Grounds and compete in a race at this level on Saturday. Nasty Habit (#13) is another promising runner that needs some help to start in this one. He was last seen winning an allowance race on Preakness Day at Pimlico. That effort was good enough for his connections to put him up for sale in June, where he fetched $120K. He’s been sidelined since and was scheduled to make his six year old debut today for Peter Miller. Both runners are worthy of consideration should they compete. However, if inside speed is good, they’re all going to have have their running shoes on to catch Bohemian Bo (#1). He was a winner at this level last month. He was the only gate to wire winner on that card in December. Consistency has been an issue, so I’d need him at 6-1 or better (8-1 ML). He was a state bred stakes winner at this meet last season and Thomas Vance is keeping him in open company for the time being. Win or lose, this race should set him up nicely to try to repeat in the Nodouble Breeders Handicap at the beginning of March. If we’re going to seed This Is Uscar (#6) take a step forward, this feels like the spot where it will happen. He showed a lot of promise last season with a strong debut and a decent second career start. After faltering on the turf in stakes company, he came back to clear the N1X condition on a sloppy course in May. He ran well in his first two starts of the year at this level, so I think he could take a step forward in his third start off the layoff. Both wins came in the slop, so any residual moisture in the track from yesterday, would be welcomed from his connections. The now. As much as that one would like it wet, I think Chiringo (#3) is better on a fast course. He is also making his third start off a layoff in this race. Contreras claimed him last year and he started to make strong strides forward, winning twice here in the spring. He went to the sidelines and returned to finish second behind the top pick in December. He ran into traffic when catching a sloppy course at the beginning of the month, where he never seemed to get comfortable. If the track is fast, I would likely think about swapping him and This Is Uscar on the grid. 

Race 8: 

$50K-$40K claimers that have not won twice since August 1st, will go six furlongs in this race. I think Miacomet (#3) is the one to beat in this race. He cleared the N1X condition this summer at Ellis when making his first start in nearly a year. He ran three times against tougher company in Kentucky and Indiana. He was recently second against a solid group for the condition at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Shirer gave him some extra time off and he brings him here. While he’s winless in six starts on this oval, he ran several competitive races here in the past. It’s interesting to see Larren Delorme show up to ride here for a sharp barn, however that’s who listed to ride El Rey Dorado (#2) for Chris Hartman. He might be the speed of the speed in this race, and the rider, who won 11% of their races at lower circuits in 2024, is likely going to be best suited to send him from his inside draw. While his fastest races have come at longer distances, he was effective at ¾ of a mile earlier in his career. 

Race 9:

It’s going to take a big effort to beat the favorite, Asternia (#3) in this race. The winner of the 2024 Purple Martin Stakes here at this distance last season, makes her third start off the layoff today for Randy Morse. She ran well to be 4th in the Poinsettia here last month when going 5 ½ furlongs. I think she’s better suited to six furlongs and I think she’s set up to run a bigger race today. I don’t see a reason to try to beat her. I was all about taking a shot with Midshipman’s Dance (#6) at this level at the beginning of the month. She was 15-1 on the morning line that day, but I think several people had the same idea as I did, pounding her down to 5-1 in the pari-mutuel wagering. She was my top pick that day, but she was a terrible bet at those odds that day. That race might have been too bad to be true for this filly. Her last few starts have offered little encouragement, but  her first three efforts were good enough to at least try her one more time, assuming she’s not getting bet down too far off the 20-1 morning line. 

Race 10:

We’ll end the Friday program with a $50K state bred maiden claiming race for fillies and mares, three and up. I was on Paris Accord (#4) in her debut and I’ll try her again on the class drop here. She was an uninspiring 5th in the mud on debut last month. She should get a faster course to compete over today, so I’ll look for her to take a step forward. Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez was 0-4 with his first time starter last year, but Morally Complex (#11) looks a little different in the  morning. She’s worked well in the AM, and those faster workouts have usually paid dividends in the afternoons. Harry Hernandez won 26% of his races for this barn since the beginning of 2024. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in another first time starter, Mazarn (#2). She’s a Petrov first time starter, which you don’t see every day. The works are good enough for the Moquet barn, which started off slow, but they’ve been heating up over the last month. She’s A Dreamer (#14) needs a pair of defections to run, but she’s worth thinking about if she’s in. She ran a solid race on debut in open maiden special weight company at Sam Houston. I’m not sure how that field stacks up against this group, but she drew the rail in a large field and was making up decent ground. The outside post should help her cause in what would be her second career start.

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 43/202 (21.3%, $434.80, $2.15 ROI)

January 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 21/102 (20.6%, $199.20, $1.95 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)