Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 1/4/25 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll kick off the local Road to the Kentucky Derby with the Smarty Jones Stakes this afternoon. This is the first of four Derby Points races in Hot Springs, Arkansas, leading up to the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 29th. Last year, three horses, Catching Freedom, Just Steel, and the Derby winner, Mystik Dan, showed up in this race en route to a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby. The Mockingbird Stakes for three year old fillies will share the spotlight for this 10 race program. First post this afternoon is 12:30 PM (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Saturday afternoon racing begins with a one mile maiden special weight race for three year olds. All eyes are going to be on The Warden (#2) in this race. He just missed in a strong maiden special weight when going a one turn mile at Churchill last time out. Prior to that race, he ran twice on the turf at Laurel and Aqueduct for Mark Salvaggio. His ownership group moved him to Ron Moquett’s barn. The dam foaled two other horses that have not won a race. He’s sired by War of Will who was a Grade 1 winner on dirt in the Preakness and on turf in the Makers Mark Mile. While I don’t particularly have concerns about him getting two turns, I do think he’s going to need to prove he can replicate his last effort. He’s listed at 6-5 and at those odds, I can’t really play him to win. However, his last race was too good to leave him off of the multi-race tickets. I think there’s a case to be made for Chief Liam (#5) as the top pick in this race. I think his debut in the mud at Aqueduct in a 6 ½ furlong sprint was better than it looks on paper. He broke well and settled in 4th before being forced to take up slightly while entering the main track. Luis Rivera Jr. moved him to the rail, which might not have been the best place to run that day. When watching the replays of other races on the card, most of the horses were being kept a few paths off the rail on the sealed course that afternoon. Rivera took the rail and had an opening to advance as they lined up going into the turn. Things got tight and he was forced to steady hard, which eliminated him from any serious contention. His sire, Violence, gets 15% winners with horse routing on the dirt for the first time. McPeek has won with 15% of his second time starters going from sprints to routes over the last five years. He’s the most intriguing horse in this race to me. 

Race 2: 

Beaten $10K claimers will sprint six furlongs in this race which kicks off the Early Pick-4. This is a tough race because the form lines for many of these runners are all over the place. Raymond (#7), is making his first start since August for Timothy Martin. He’s finished in the money in 9 of his last 11 races. His last win came on this oval at this distance when facing open $10,000-$7,500 claimers. His works are a little on the slow side and he’s entered with the waiver, so that could be a tell that he’s going to need this race. However, he appears to be on his toes in the paddock and while warming up on the track, I think he’s going to run his race. Derby Date (#10) is a nine year old gelding that is capable of running a big race from time to time. He’s making his second start of the meet and dropping in class while doing so. He should get a fast course, which is preferable for him. He had some trouble lines last out, so there’s reason to believe he could put forth a better effort today. Knicks Story (#9) is the morning line favorite in this race, based on a few good races of late. He was third when he was a voided claim in a $20K claiming race at Churchill. This is a drop in class after 2+ months on the sidelines. He fired a sharp bullet work on 12/20, so there are definitely mixed signals. The hot start that this barn has gotten off to is also worth considering. 

Race 3:

This is a $50K maiden claiming contest for two year olds going six furlongs. This race has several runners that had big price tags at the sales, but things aren’t going as planned with them. While horses like Momissioner (#2) or Zoom (#10) could be good enough to win at this level, I don’t think the risk is going to be worth the reward. Instead, I’m going to key on Miracle On Central (#12) for Chris Hartman. He was steadied early in his debut on a sloppy course at Churchill on debut. We often see horses that have trouble lines early in the race on debut come back and try to go to the front with a better break. That was the  case when he stretched out to a mile on closing day in Louisville. He battled for the front in an aggressive pace battle before fading to the back of the field. He cuts back to six furlongs and drops in class. Bermuda Blitz (#5) is dropping in class for Mark Casse after running three races with three similar figures at Churchill. I thought his effort two back was better than it looks on paper. Casse has done very well with the runners that he’s brought to town, winning with 5 of 9 so far. A deeper saver for me would be Waco (#3). He faded late when putting up a career top figure in a two turn race against a better field here 13 days ago. He cuts back to a sprint here which feels like an odd move. He’s clearly doing well and he’s making his third start off the layoff. He’ll need to prove he can handle a fast track, which appears to be what he’s going to be working with today. 

Race 4:

$30K-$25K claimers will sprint six furlongs here. Got Thunder (#12) was taken out of his game in a six horse field last out when competing at this same level.He ran an even third that day while attending a slow pace. He likes to stalk and pounce and I think he’ll be afforded that kind of trip with his outside draw. Steve Asmussen claimed him and brings him back to Oaklawn after working twice for him at Louisiana Downs. California Tiger (#7) was claimed at Del Mar when he finished third in a similar kind of race. Sean Williams takes over the training and brings this son of Smiling Tiger east. He was bred in Kentucky, but he is eligible for California bred races. However, there’s not a ton of state bred options left for him in California, and he’s not good enough to compete in state bred stakes races. The purse structure is favorable to race here in Arkansas and I think he fits well with this group. Briterdayzahead (#6) has been popular at the claim box, being plucked from four of his last five starts. John Ortiz doesn’t have the best numbers first off the claim and he wasn’t the best version of himself last time out at Churchill. He cuts back to six furlongs, which is his best distance. His best race beats this field. 

Race 5: 

Arkansas breds will go again in this race, which is a six furlong maiden special weight contest. I think this race sets up perfectly for Burlsworth (#8). He was very sharp in his two races against state bred company last year. He ran once in open company, where he was overmatched, but not embarrassed. He went to the sidelines and returned at Churchill in open company at Churchill where he finished 6th. That was a strong race where the third place finisher came back to win easily in maiden special weight company in New Orleans. Moquett has rough numbers second off the layoff (0-31), which is worth noting. However, I do think there are some tough luck races in that sample, so it won’t be a deal breaker for me. I think this Practical Joke gelding graduates today. I’ll use Devils Fork (#4) as the backup in this spot. He finished 5th in his debut last year and then came back in January where he struggled at this level. He went to the sidelines and has been working well for his return to the races. He’ll get Lasix for the first time and he’s been gelded since that last start. I think he’s going to improve here. While I think it’s more likely that he finishes second or third, he could be worth using, especially if his odds float up over his 10-1 morning line figure. 

Race 6: 

This is the first of three N1X allowance races for four year olds and up in the Late Pick-5 sequence. When speaking to the depth of the horse population at this meet, these three races are carded at three different distances and all three races drew overflow fields of 14 runners. There were two divisions of this race that were scheduled last Saturday when racing was cancelled after the first race. As a result, many of these horses entered in those races are back today. The race is contested at one mile and at Oaklawn, that race ends at the 1/16 pole. When Big City (#6) was entered at 1 1/16 miles last weekend, I thought he was a horse to try to play against. He drew the rail in a race that was laden with speed, and I thought there were others that would be able to sit a better trip and run him down. With this race going at one mile, and some of the speed staying in the 1 1/16 heat. It also benefits him if Toddchero (#13), who is currently the first AE to draw in, stays in the barn today. He was excellent at Remington two starts ago when making his first start for Ray Ashford. He went to the front and was never threatened, winning by six lengths and posting a monster 96 Beyer Speed Figure. That effort was good enough for him to run in the Zia Park Derby in his most recent start. He drew the outside post in that race and was never in contention for the early lead. He never got involved, finishing 5th, well behind the winner. He was not able to run with race day Lasix in that race and perhaps he just simply bounced off that big effort. However, he drops in class and faces a much more manageable group. I think Cristian Torres can get him to the front and he’ll be able to get him home. I really liked Goldbrick (#10) last week, but I think the pace scenario is not as favorable with this group. He does have two very good races at this distance on this course, and he’s making his third start off the layoff today. If Toddchero draws in, I’d definitely upgrade Goldbrick as I think he can sit a little farther off the pace and make a run at the leaders on the turn. I think these are the two that are going to be there at the end. 

Race 7, The $150K Mockingbird Stakes:

The first of two stakes races on the card is a six furlong sprint for three year old fillies. Shisospicy (#7) is a huge favorite on the morning line in this nine horse contest. She embarrassed a field of maiden special weight runners at Gulfstream in her debut where she won by over 16 lengths. While sometimes it’s hard to determine the depth of those races, it is worth noting that the runner-up came back to win a maiden special weight race at Tampa and the 4th place finisher was a game second in maiden special weight company at Gulfstream in her next start. Two of the horses that finished at the back of the pack came back to win maiden claiming races in their subsequent starts. Jose D’Angelo brought this daughter of Mitole to Churchill where she finished third in the Fern Creek Stakes. She set an ambitious tempo there, giving way late to a pair of more accomplished runners that were able to come from off the pace to pass her. Flavien Prat, who is in town to ride Hot Property for Brad Cox in the Smarty Jones, picks up the mount here. She is definitely the one to beat, but she’s going to have to work on the front end. While there’s not a proven commodity that can come from off the pace on the dirt, I like the efforts from G W’s Girl (#2) in her first two starts on the turf. She was a winner on debut at Delaware in a five furlong dash. She faced the boys in the Indian Summer Stakes at Keeneland in her next start where she finished a solid 5th, only two lengths behind the winner. That was a quality race as Governor Sam, the winner, came back to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. The 4th place finisher, who was only a nose better than her, came back to win the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes on the turf at Del Mar on the Breeders’ Cup undercard. The dam was a winner in her only career start on a traditional dirt course and she’s sired by Munnings, who has sired some very talented dirt sprinters. I think 6-1 feels a little light, but I think she has the best chance to beat the favorite. I’ll make her the pick to score the upset.

Race 8: 

The second N1X allowance race in this sequence is at six furlongs. While I think both Attache (#1) and Gunflash (#6) are strong contenders in this spot, I’m going to try Juilliard (#9) as the top pick for me in this race. He made his first start since May last month in a race at this condition in the mud. He seemed to be struggling to take a hold of that course, finishing an even 6th that day, never threatening the winner. He was a promising Speightstown runner that was not living up to his billing early in his career. He was claimed by Steve Hobby in January of 2023, and he brought him along nicely. He scored twice here at the end of the 2022-23 meet, and while being held winless last year, he ran some big races toward the end of the meet. I think he’ll be more effective on the fast track today and I can see him sitting a better trip this time around. He was bet at 4-1 in that last race, so 12-1 on the morning line feels like strong value, should we get him at that number. Attache is the favorite and the one to beat on figures in this race. He was a strong winner in a seven furlong starter allowance race at Churchill in his last start. He has five wins in 14 career starts, but he has never paired his victories. I don’t love the rail draw for him either, but he is still the one to beat. Gunflash was rolling late in the mud last out when W W Scouts Honor took them gate to wire. He galloped out in front of the field in that race, so perhaps Harry Hernandez needs to time his late surge a little better. He has six wins in 22 career starts, but he’s winless in seven tries on this oval. He does have some tactical speed as well, so perhaps he’ll be sitting a closer to the front on a fast track today. 

Race 9, The $250K Smarty Jones Stakes:

Earlier in the week, I posted a horse by horse analysis of this race, which I have linked below. The quick and dirty version on my analysis for this race is that I see this as a showdown between Hot Property (#6) making his first start against winner for Brad Cox, and Coal Battle (#8), who is trying to win his third straight stakes race. I think these are the two primary runners and from a value and pace standpoint, I think Coal Battle has the slight edge. 

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2025-kentucky-derby-the-250k-smarty-jones-stakes-by-eric-solomon/

Race 10:

The nightcap is the final N1X allowance race and this one is carded at 1 1/16 miles. I was a fan of both Lambeth (#11) and Sir Greylind (#12) when they were entered in this spot last weekend. Both runners are still live in this race and both will be on my tickets, but they definitely weren’t helped by drawing outside posts when they re-drew this race. However, Get a Job (#5) might be able to move forward in this race. He came from state bred allowance company in New York to a race at this level on Opening Day last month. He broke well from an outside post and was able to secure inside position and the lead going into the first turn. However, Empire Builder, the longshot winner of the race, rushed up alongside and stole the lead before the first point of call. He never looked comfortable from that point on, being buried along the inside, while racing behind horses. That race should prove to be educational for him as he;s drawn better today and gets a rider upgrade to Keith Asmussen. His New York form suggests he’s capable of better and I think he’ll show that today. No other runner in this race is getting the same level of class relief as Lambeth  is. He is coming out of N2X allowance races at Churchill, which are always very spicy races. He was second to Liberal Arts two starts back. That one was a winner last week at the Fair Grounds, which certainly flatters this runner today. He came back 18 days later and was a game third while trying to carve out the fractions at Churchill. He’s better when trying to score from a stalking position, so his outside draw should allow him to get somewhat of a similar trip. He’s eligible to run at the N1X level here since he earned less than $24K for his N1X win in August in Indiana. Sir Greylind is making his second start off the layoff and his second start for Ken McPeek. He was stuck on the rail at this level on Opening Day and he was fighting Julien Leparoux while he was in some tight spaces. He settled down and ran well to be third, finishing ahead of some of the same rivals that he’s facing again today. Post 12 is not ideal for the race that he wants to run, but I do see him as a player with this field. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 24/110 (21.8%, $246.20, $2.24 ROI)

January 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 2/10 (20.0%, $10.60, $1.06 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)