Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 12/13/24 – By Eric Solomon

We’re back in action for the second week of racing for the 2024-25 meet at Oaklawn Park. There’s a 10 race Friday afternoon card for bettors to sink their teeth into this afternoon. First post is 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Beaten $10K claimers going one mile will launch the second week of racing at Oaklawn Park. This is a weird spot for Count de Monet (#7). He pulled off the upset in the Advent Stakes here two years ago, but he went off form after that race. He was claimed for $32K last May at the end of the 23-24 meet here and he came back to run three strong races at Prairie Meadows and Colonial for Cipriano Contreras. He regressed again in his last start when facing optional $50K claiming/N2X company at Horseshoe Indianapolis. He’s been off for just under two months and his works are looking a bit on the slow side. All 15 career starts have been in one turn sprints, so he’ll be taking a moderately suspect drop in class while trying something new for the first time. He certainly could win this race, but I see him as a vulnerable favorite that is worth taking a swing against. Life Is Hard (#1) comes back to town after summering at Woodbine. He was sharp at this meet last season, running a monster race here in December when coming off a similar layoff. His last few starts on the synthetic weren’t great, but I do think the freshening and the return to Hot Springs are going to be helpful for him. I see him as the one to beat. Chapel Barn (#3)was claimed for $5K by Michael Hewitt at Remington last month. He wheels him back and stretches him back out to two turns. His last win came at this distance at Prairie Meadows and he has a win at two turns on this oval. He looked like he was progressing into some of his better recent form as the meet went on in Oklahoma. I could see him running another decent race for his new connections. Algebra (#9) makes his first start off the Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez claim. He’s a seven year old gelding that seems to have lost a step this year. This barn does fare well with runners first off the claim. He’s going to have competition for the early lead, so he might not get to run the race that he wants to. 7-2 feels too light for me, and I prefer his chances underneath. However, I’d think about using this 11 time winner as a deeper saver as well. 

Race 2: 

The first of four two year old races on the card is a maiden special weight going 1 1/16 miles. This is a tricky field to gauge since there aren’t too many impressive performances to sort through. Authentic Gallop (#7) is better than his last race suggests. He was a step slow from the gate and ended up behind horses for the first time as he went into the first turn. He was forced to steady and was relegated to the back of the pack. The pace up front was solid and I liked that he was able to make a decent move before leveling off. He gets a good gate jockey with Bejarano getting the assignment for the first time. There isn’t a lot of early speed in this race and I think he could try to steal this one on the front end. Brad Cox sends out two runners in this race, Original Sin (#2) and Problem Solved (#8). Neither was impressive when finishing off the boards in their debuts at Keeneland. On paper, I prefer the race that Original Sin is coming out of, and I liked his effort a little more. He was away a beat slow when facing a Wesley Ward speedster. The runner up from that race came back to break his maiden at Churchill two weeks ago. More interestingly, Original Sin finished 8 lengths better than Amor Patriae. That one came back to win at 30-1 in maiden special weight company, going one mile here last week. He draws a better post for his first career route. Cox has strong numbers with second time starters, routing for the first time. When Geroux is here, he typically rides first call for Cox, winning 24% of their races here since 2023 and 28% of their races together overall in that span. Geroux rides Problem Solved, where Ramon Vazquez, a former leading jockey here, gets the call on Original Sin. I’ll use Original Sin and play against Problem Solved. The runner I referenced, Amor Patriae, is trained by James DiVito. He was making his second career start, going sprint to route, while adding blinkers for the first time. DiVito will try to catch lightning in a bottle once again when he makes the same adjustments with Real Blues (#1). This Authentic colt debuted at 5 ½ furlongs at Hawthorne and finished second after getting roughed up at the start. He was on the wrong lead for the better part of the long stretch there. I do think the blinkers will help his cause and I think the value will be there since the Beyer came back light from his debut. 

Race 3:

A field of nine is entered for this $50K starter allowance race going one mile. As per usual with this condition at Oaklawn, horses that are eligible for this race must have both started at least one time for a $50K claiming tag or less and qualify for the N1X allowance condition. Dance Some Mo (#8) is the top pick in this race, which feels wide open to me. His last win came in February at this distance on this oval. He’s run competitive efforts since that race, but he’s been held in check each time. He might be overlooked a bit in this spot after running into Like a Saltshaker at Churchill last month. Despite being a $16K starter allowance race, that was a stronger field at the top than this group. I think he has enough tactical early speed to secure an advantageous position in the first part of the race. While winning has been a struggle, he’s been very good at hitting the board, finishing in the money in 16 of 31 career starts. Show Time (#9) draws the outside, which might not be ideal for a horse that wants to be on the lead. However, he definitely fits with this group. He was a voided claim in a $32K claiming race at Keeneland in his last start where he just missed. Martin Chuan had a pair of winners last Friday and he gets the call for the first time today. Three of his last four tries have been sharp and would all be competitive with this group if he can run back to those races. 4-1 (ML) feels like the right number for him for me. Rivetage (#6) is a longer priced option in this race who could be a player in this spot. He broke his maiden on this oval with $30K maiden claimers in the slop in February. He ran solid races with higher priced N2L claimers here and at Churchill. He was claimed by Matt Shirer in April and is making his first start today since June. I like that they’re running him in a protected spot for his return. He’s a three year old, so there’s reason to believe that he could be moving forward. He might be better next out, but I think he’s a sneaky horse in this field. Funny Uncle (#4) is another horse to consider covering in this spot. He’s going from turf to dirt for Mike Maker in this race. He’s another runner that has run well on this course. He has only finished off the board once here in eight starts, although five of those races were third place finishes. He’s a deeper closer so he tends to be a little more pace dependent than some of the others in this race. As a result, his 7-2 morning line figure feels too low for my liking. However, with a speed horse on the outside and a lightly raced maiden winner stretching out on the inside, there is a chance for a solid early pace here. I think he’s better suited for the bottom of the exotics, but he’d be a deeper saver for me as well. 

Race 4:

Arkansas bred fillies mares will sprint six furlongs in this $20K N2L claimer. I don’t typically gravitate toward 1-13 types in these races, but I think this is a good spot for Sassy Lass (#11) to run them all down late. Several runners are coming off the bench and there are a lot of speed and fade types. This race has a lot of ingredients for a pace meltdown which should certainly work to her favor. She just missed against a similar type of group two back, however most of her other races have come against stronger fields. This is the right level of competition and the outside draw fits the race she wants to run. Q’s Your Mama (#10) ran her fastest career race when making her debut last year. She showed some promise in that maiden special weight but she struggled in her next two tries. She stretched out to two turns where she led every step of the way in the mud when beating a $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming field. Those races are a blend of state bred runners going for the $20K tag and open runners going for the $12,500 price. Her works are a little zippier than some of the others, so I see her as a live runner here. Wildwood Queen (#8) figures to be the one to beat after her last two efforts at the 23-24 meet. She broke her maiden in state bred maiden special weight company, which is a plus. She went to the sidelines and returned in an open, optional claiming/N2L allowance race at Fanduel Racing for Scott Becker. She faltered as the 3-5 favorite that day in a race that she clearly needed. The $35K purse she’s running for here is a larger pot than the allowance race she is coming out of, however, I do think she was good enough last year to at least consider trying a state bred N1X allowance race, especially at this time of year when many of the runners are coming off the bench. The fact that she is not doing that is enough of a concern to try to find some better value, but not enough to take a firm stand against her.

Race 5: 

Two year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this $35K-$30K maiden claiming contest. I’ll channel Whitney Houston and make So Emotional (#5) the top pick. She broke flat-footed from the gate conceding several lengths to her rivals. She steadily advanced to draw even with the leader, but faded when the eventual race winner passed her on the outside. That was a slow race on a tiring track. While the figure came back low, I see her as a candidate to move forward in this start. Runners from the Asmussen barn were 0-13 last week, but perhaps that can change with Joyful Pursuit (#10). She debuted against $50K maiden claimers in the slop at Churchill. She was wide while taking some mud to the face when facing a runaway winner. She has to make up about four lengths on the morning line favorite, Dinah’s Girl (#3), who has run the same figure three times in a row, while showing little improvement. At 8-1, compared to 2-1, I’ll take the longer price and wager on potential. Blue Dazzler (#9) ran well in the slop last month to finish second at Churchill. Her two one turn, dirt sprints are very competitive with this level. Ben Colebrook doesn’t ship many horses here, so the fact that she made the trip is encouraging. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 begins with an optional $50K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. I’m not sure why Full Screen (#7) is able to run in this race without the $50K tag. He cleared the N2X condition at Saratoga this summer and his other win in open company came in a $100K stakes at Woodbine. Perhaps that race coming out of the country had something to do with his eligibility here. Regardless, he’s the favorite but I think he’s not as sharp when going two turns. I think the second choice, Mackman (#5) is much more dangerous with this group. He was an easy winner in his first start here last year when dominating a maiden special weight race at this distance in March. He struggled in his next two starts, but regained his better form when clearing the N1X condition at Delaware. He’s been sharp in his last three starts at this level against some talented fields in Kentucky. Cristian Torres was the leading rider here last year and he’s off to a quick start again, winning three times in the first two days of racing here last week. I think he sits the right kind of trip to beat this group today. Dai Vernon (#8) is the backup for me in this race. I’d need a little better than his 6-1 morning line to upgrade him since he has lost his last six starts by double digit lengths. However, three of those races were defeats in longer distance dirt races at the hands of Next. He faced Mackman last out in a loaded 12 horse field at this level at Churchill. He had to deal with the 12 hole in that race and his trip was less than ideal. He’s on the outside again, but post eight is a lot more manageable for Ricardo Santana Jr. He ran well enough last time to make me think that he can take another step forward in the third start of his current form cycle. 

Race 7: 

The Late Pick-4 gets started with an optional $125K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year olds going one mile. There’s some nice horses in this race looking to stamp their ticket to a race like the Smarty Jones in a few weeks. How you play this race depends on how you feel about Calling Card (#4), who is the morning line favorite in this spot. He started in his career with a pair of New York bred turf races, finishing a respectable second two starts back. Maker moved him to the dirt where he absolutely humiliated eight rivals, going a one turn mile at Aqueduct. This will be his first start on dirt at two turns and his first start against open company. Horses sired by Complexity have yet to win a two turn race, but it’s a very limited sample size. He ran a credible race going two turns on the grass and I think he fits well with this group. I think he’s a candidate to take another step forward. I thought Big Much (#1) was a live longshot in the Street Sense Stakes at the end of October, but he defected from that race. I thought his maiden score was very professional and as a son of Outwork, who gets 13% winners in dirt routes, I think he’s a candidate to move forward at this distance. Norm Casse shipped him here last week and gave him a leisurely drill on 12/8. His preparations at Churchill were solid though and I think he’s got a shot in this one as well. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sandman (#2) goes into the starting gate as the favorite. He loped along late to get into third in the Street Sense Stakes. He was one of many in that one on the wrong lead for the better part of the stretch drive. His score at Saratoga to break his maiden three back was solid. I like the drop in class to try to get the confidence builder before sliding back on the Derby Trail. This is a solid group and he’s going to have to likely improve a little bit to score. 

Race 8: 

The last of four two year old races on the docket today is a restricted maiden special weight for fillies going six furlongs. The morning line favorite, Complex Secret (#2) is one of two runners for Ken McPeek in this race. Her best number came in the slop though, and her two fast track races were not great. She drops in class for this spot since she was not eligible for these races in Kentucky. I do like the drop in class angle, but taking a short price on her isn’t ideal. She’s more of a backup to me. I’m more interested in her stablemate, Sight to See (#10). She was 8th while being stuck inside in an open maiden special weight at Keeneland. Like her stablemate, she was not eligible for this level there, but her $57K price tag does qualify her for this level of competition in Arkansas. I like the outside draw for her and like the way Emmanuel Esquivel rides on this track. He was strong with many longer priced runners last year. Tom Amoss and Cristan Torres team up with Terra Bella (#1) for her first try on the dirt and second try overall. She’s been working well on the dirt in New Orleans, so there’s reason to believe she’ll handle the surface switch. I don’t love the draw and I don’t love that she sold for a number that is significantly lower than the stud fee for Quality Road. She has some good speed though and that could be a weapon in a race like this, so I’ll be backing up with her as well. 

Race 9:

This is another optional $50K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds and up, however, this one will be contested at six furlongs. As races like this go, this is not as deep as some of the other races at this condition last season. As a result, I think Market Street (#4) for D. Wayne Lukas, is being completely undervalued on the morning line. This horse came back after a similar three month break here last season and was an impressive winner to clear the N1X condition. Since that win, he is 0-7, with no in the money finishes. That being said, two of those races came in stakes company and his last five have all come at this level. He ran respectable races at Saratoga this summer when facing older foes at this level as a three year old. He was 4th two starts ago at Churchill when facing a strong field of three year olds at this level. His last race at Keeneland was dull, with no visible excuse for his performance. I do think he’s getting some class relief today and I think there are many suspect runners in here that might be sitting on an effort below their peaks. He’s a three year old that has been competitive in tougher spots and he has a win on the course at this distance. I think there’s some definite value and upside here. Chiringo (#8) is the morning line favorite based off a strong pair of races here at the end of the 23-24 meet. He looked very good when beating starter allowance company in April and then backing up that effort with a strong N1X allowance win here in May. The speed figures for both races are solid, but it is worth noting that the allowance races here at the end of the meet weren’t as deep as they were for the first several months. He’s making his first start since May while facing tougher company than he’s ever seen on the dirt. The barn has good numbers off the layoff, but he’s a tough proposition for me at short odds. He’s an A line play for me, but at his 2-1 morning line or lower, I think I’d try to beat him. There is a definite horse for course angel in play with Jackman (#3) in this spot. He’s not in the best current form, but we could have said the same thing about him at this time last year. He went on to win four of five starts here last season. He clearly loves it here, winning 7 of 16 times and finishing in the money a total of 14 times. Outside of here he has 7 wins in 30 starts and 17 in the money finishes. While those other figures aren’t terrible by any stretch of the imagination, he’s just a better horse when he’s here. He might need one start before he reaches his top level, but I think he’s going to be better than his last several starts in Delaware. 

Race 10: 

We’ll end the day with an open $7,500 claiming race going one mile. 11 are entered in the Friday nightcap today. Khozy My Boy (#11) is the morning line favorite, and on paper, he feels like the most likely winner of this race. He was a winner at the 23-24 meet here and he’s another one of these highly consistent runners, finishing in the money in 50% of his races (24 times in 48 starts). Off tracks are his kryptonite, so while rain is currently forecasted for tomorrow, the track condition as the days goes on today is going to be worth monitoring. Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez took over for Karl Broberg as the day to day trainer for End Zone Athletics. He’s done well, winning 24% of his races this year. I don’t love the wide draw, but I do think he’s better than this group. I do think there’s a chance that apprentice Joseph Romero tries to put Aheadofthegame (#10) on the front end in hopes of stealing this one. He was a two time winner this summer at Hawthorne for Scott Becker before finishing third as a beaten favorite at Fanduel Racing last time out. Becker gave him a little extra time off after that race. His runner’s didn’t do great here last season, but he proved in 22-23 that his runners can compete on this circuit. Beealea (#9) would be the other logical backup for me, as a deeper closer in this field. I don’t love how much ground he’s conceded to his rivals in the early stages in his last few starts. He was at his best when sitting closer to the middle of the pack and then launching his late bid. The shortened stretch of the mile race is not ideal, so he’ll need a well-timed ride from the veteran rider, Travis Wales. 

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 3/20 (14%, $40.40, $2.02 ROI)