Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 12/22/24 – By Eric Solomon

There’s another strong wagering card at Oaklawn Park this afternoon, highlighted by a stakes caliber allowance in the 9th race. There’s no holiday break this year, so we’ll be back in action on Friday. I hope everyone reading has a wonderful holiday! First post is 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

$12,500 maiden claimers start off the Sunday afternoon card at Oaklawn. As per usual with this condition, Arkansas bred horses are eligible to run with a $20K claiming tag. Four of the nine runners entered in this spot competed against each other here on opening day two weeks ago in an open $20K race. Awol (#7) finished 4th in that race, about 2 ½ lengths behind the morning line favorite, Rocket Night (#2). I think Awol has a significant advantage in this race, which appears to have more early speed signed on. Indy Charge (#1) has speed inside of Rocket Night, and Chou Chou d’Aven (#8) set the pace two weeks ago with Rocket Night pressuring him from the outside. Awol loomed as a big threat, but came up a little short when circling up four wide when making his second start off a four month layoff. This is his third straight race at this distance and I see more upside with him compared to the favorite. Most of my tickets will be keyed with him on top. Rocket Night is being asked to run another big race after hitting a career top figure last out. He has run well in three starts on this oval so he’ll be the saver for me. However, the Asmussen barn is not lighting the world on fire here at the moment and he feels like a horse that could take too much public money here.

Race 2: 

Fillies and mares will go one mile in an open $20,000-$17,500 claiming race, which drew a field of eight. Tiffany Twist (#5) stretches out to two turns in hopes of becoming the first two time winner of the meet. There’s a decent amount of speed signed on for this race, so she could sit a comfortable trip off the front-runners. She’ll likely be overlooked because of the 0-16 record with runners first off the claim in the last two years for Carlos Santamaria. There’s no doubt that his barn has struggled this year, winning only three times with 77 starters. However, she’s in good form and making a quick turnaround. Santamaria has two in the money finishers with three starters at this meet so far, so things could be trending in the right direction. She’s well-spotted here and if she’s sitting at or above her 8-1 morning line, I’d be willing to take a chance. Big Bad Diva (#2) is another runner that could benefit from a decent tempo on the front end. Matt Williams ships her back to Arkansas after finishing 5th as a big longshot against a much sharper starter allowance group. She’s getting more class relief than anyone else in this spot and she was a winner here last season. This feels like a good spot for a mare that has won 20% of her career starts (7-35). On deeper tickets and underneath, I could make a case to include the big longshot, Just Like Magic (#6) on some tickets. She closed well at Mountaineer to get into 4th when making her first start in four months last time out. She had a monster effort here last season when she was trained by Brad Cox. Since the claim, her efforts haven’t nearly been as good. However, she had a bad trip in starter allowance company after her big win. She then went to Indiana where she faltered on the turf. Her two efforts in sprints at Belterra were bad, but she got break after those races and I think she’s just a better horse at two turns. She has two wins in four starts at this distance. I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think that she’ll improve after her last start, despite running on a tougher circuit. 

Race 3:

14 Arkansas bred two year old fillies are entered to sprint six furlongs in this maiden special weight race which will have a maximum of 12 runners competing. This race feels like a bit of a crapshoot, so I’ll definitely want coverage. Holly Springs (#2) is the top pick for Melton Wilson and Ricardo Santana. They teamed up with a debut winner together here in February in a race like this. This barn has a pair of winners at the meet and Santana has ridden well with limited opportunities. Her sire, Street Strategy has 11% winners with debuting runners in dirt sprints on this course (when typically facing fellow Arky breds). Very Cosmopolitan (#3) faced tougher foes at Saratoga and Churchill when running in restricted maiden special weight races. The winner of her last start, Book’em, has turned into a very nice filly, winning her next two starts, including an 11 length romp in open N1X allowance company at Churchill in her most recent start. The second and third place finishers of that race both came back to win at that same level with ease in their subsequent starts. Moquett gave her a little time off and brings her home to Arkansas where she’ll face an softer field while running for a purse that is $17K larger than her last start. Re Re’s Rocket (#12) makes sense breaking from the outside stall here. Her half sister, Derby Day Lassie, was an impressive debut winner on this oval a few years back. She’s had some solid works for Lonnie Briley, who turns to leading rider, Cristian Torres for her debut. On deeper tickets, I’ll thrown in Look My Way (#5) for Tom Swearingen and apprentice Tyler Bacon. I like what I’ve seen from this apprentice rider so far at this meet. Swearingen’s runners are often overlooked on debut because he tends to work them very slowly in the mornings. That was the case with More Power, who ran well to be second here the other day. By comparison, this filly is working quicker than some of his other two year olds. She has family that ran competitive races on debut, so at long odds, I think she’s worth thinking about. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will go one mile in this maiden special weight race which drew a field of 10. This might not be the strongest race at this condition. I’m going to try a pedigree play here and make Dataw Island (#7) the top pick. She’s made four career starts, all of which came on the turf. Her last two races in turf routes were definitely better than her first two starts as a two year old at Laurel and Tampa. She was only purchased for $20K, so there were likely concerns as a two year old. However, I do like that she has shown growth. This will be her first dirt start, so it is encouraging to see a bullet work in November, that was the fastest of 44 workers that morning. Her dam was an unraced daughter of Tapit, and she’s her first foal to run. What makes her the dam interesting is that she’s a half-sister to Constitution, who was a Grade 1 winner and has turned into a very good sire. Jame Divito has had success at this meet, with one win and three in the money finishes with five starters thus far. Barbanera (#4) wasn’t terrible in her debut in the slop at Churchill in September, but her second and most recent start, was a disaster. For whatever reason, she wasn’t feeling it that day. She broke in, but attended a solid pace for a little bit before plummeting to the back of the field before being allowed to jog home. She’s worked three times since that race, looking no worse for wear in the morning. She’ll definitely need to be more professional in this race, but I do think a slower tempo while moving to two turns for the first time, could help her relax. She runs for quality connections and her half-sister, Saracosa, was a multiple stakes winner in dirt routes and was graded stakes placed on this oval. They didn’t drop her into maiden claiming company, which feels like another sign that they think she’ll be able to rebound from her disaster last time out. Happy Talk (#9) comes back to two turns for D. Wayne Lukas. She made her first start in seven months when running at Churchill in a one turn mile race at this level. She was uncharacteristically keen, going to the front in that race, before fading to 5th, well behind the top three finishers. She’s better when coming from off the pace, and breaking from an outside post in this race, that’s likely going to be her best chance to win. She was second twice here in the spring, so I think we’ll see a better effort. Her knock has been that she’s left herself too much work to do, so she might be a better play underneath, as opposed to on top, especially if she is the post time favorite. 

Race 5: 

We’ll stay at the one mile distance for this $16,000-$12,500 N1X claiming race, which drew a full gate of 12 starters. There’s definitely a chance that the best days for Polterer (#8) are in the rear view mirror. However, at 8-1 or better, I’m willing to buy low on a horse that has 6 wins in 12 starts here and is 7-10 overall at this distance. His last three starts at Delaware, Keeneland, and Remington, were not good. His work over the course here last week was decent, which might tip off a better effort on his home course. Seven Flat (#1) runs for Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez and End Zone Athletics. They teamed up for a pair wins this week, and they’re looking for their third straight with this Remington invade.r He is 0-6 on this oval, but he seems to be in some of his better career form right now. Torres has ridden all four winners for this barn at the meet and he’ll get the nod here. Eastside Cool (#12) will have to overcome the 12 hole to win as the favorite in this race. He was claimed for $25K at Santa Anita in October and has a two month gap in his running lines, while returning to run for a $16K tag. The tough draw makes this proposition a little riskier. However, he’s another runner that loves this course, winning 6 of 14 times when running here. Unlike Polterer, this is not his best distance though, going 0-14 at this trip. Some of those races came in one turn mile races, which is a different animal than a two turn mile, in my opinion. He’s more of a backup for me in this spot, unless his odds drift up.

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $55K-$50K N2L claiming race, going 1 1/16 miles. I made a case for Shattatuck (#9) as a 30-1 longshot in allowance company on opening day here two weeks ago. He blew the break and left himself too much work to do. That race appeared to have much more speed on paper, but the pace duel never materialized and Empire Builder was able to win going gate to wire. There is some speed signed on for this race, perhaps not as much on paper as last time. Horses with his running style have fared this week and he showed that he continued to improve as the meet went on last season. He’s making his third start off the bench while getting some class relief. That was a key for him to improve in the past. I’ll try to go back to the well here with him while getting some important class relief. Bolt at Midnight (#5) is a Ruis Racing runner coming from Southern California and racing for Chris Hartman. They sent out a beaten favorite yesterday under similar circumstances, but that one had a trip that was less than ideal. He could be a part of the pace picture in this race, but he does have to deal with Devil’s Mischief (#4) breaking to his inside. He’s making his third start off the layoff and could be sitting on a better effort in a spot where he’s also getting some needed class relief. Fear of Union (#6) makes sense, making his first start off the Greg Compton claim. He was knocking on the door before finally busting it down when facing $50K maiden claimers at Churchill when he was last seen on the track in September. He’s been giving three months off to face winners for the first time. I’m not crazy about Compton giving the assignment to the apprentice, Joseph Romero. Arrieta tends to ride first call for this barn and he’s not riding anyone in this race. Perhaps Romero earned the mount in the AM, however, he has struggled on this oval to start the meet. He’s another contender with some question marks, so he makes more sense as a backup play here. 

Race 7: 

$30K-$25K N3L claimers will go six furlongs here. Powerful (#6) takes a deep drop in class for Steve Asmussen while searching for his first win in over two years. This is not the kind of horse I love playing as a top pick, but I do think he makes sense here. His second win came in stakes company as a two year old, but he’s never really lived up to that promise. He ran poorly last out against beaten $80K claimers so he’ll take a deeper dive here. His running style fits the race and track profile, and I think there is some value to be had here. He’s listed at 5-1 on the morning line, and around 4-1 or better, I think he’s quite playable at this level. Tom Amoss has sent out several live runners to start this meet, which is worth noting, because he didn’t have the greatest 23-24 meet with the horses he brought to Oaklawn. He takes over the training of Sutherland (#7), who is another runner that has been held winless for over two years. He also showed some promise earlier in his career, but he does appear to be trending in the right direction. He runs for a sharp barn that handles new runners well. His effort three back would likely be good enough to beat these. While taking a pair of runners that haven’t won in a while, I’ll try to balance things out with a horse that has two wins in his last three starts. J J’s Ranger (#10) was a professional maiden when he was racing here last season. He was busy, racing three times at Churchill during their recently concluded fall meet. He scored in two of those races and finished 5th against a sharper starter allowance group in his last start. He runs for Sarah Hamilton, who has struggled this year, winning with only 2 of 80 starters. Part of the issue is the stock and part is running horses where they’re over their hands. That was the case for this gelding last out. He appears to fit better with this group. 

Race 8: 

This $50K starter allowance is a little different from some of the other races at this condition. Horses must have run at least once for a $50K tag and they cannot have won twice since August 22nd in order to be eligible for this race, which carries a solid $70K purse. As a result, this is much sharper field than you’ll see when compared to the $50K starter allowance races where horses must also be eligible for the N1X condition. This is a complicated race where several runners are live. Pat’s Property (#2) and morning line favorite, Laughing Boy (#8), are pretty much need the lead types. Camp David (#9) breaks from the outside stall while making his first start since March. He likes to be forward too, and he could be a little keen while coming off the bench. I think the ingredients are there for them to do too much in the early stages. Then it becomes a question of who is going to be up to the task here. I’ll try Trident Hit (#1), coming back here where he is a three time winner. While he may have lost a step or two, I think his running style is ideal for this race. He was excellent when winning here against lesser in April and I think he’s coming into this race ready to run another good one. Mark Casse has done very well with the stock he’s brought here so far. He sends out Golden Glider (#5) for his second start off a layoff. He’s been lightly raced, with several gaps in his running lines over the last few years. 12 starts ago, he ran in the Mo Donegal Belmont, which was in 2022. At the end of that year, he won the Tropical Park Derby on Tapeta, but didn’t run on dirt again until winning at Gulfstream with beaten $35K claimers this June. He goes two turns for the first time in a while and I think he fits well with this group. While I don’t love the pace setup, there’s a chance that Laughing Boy is just better than these right now. We saw good horses on or near the lead yesterday, repelling some challengers coming from off the pace in the outer lanes. That was the place to be on this course on Friday, and those lanes looked good again yesterday. He’s been facing tougher and should be tough to pass. 

Race 9:

The featured race today is an optional $100K claiming/money allowance race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. One of my stronger opinions of the day is the Arkansas bred filly, Haulin Ice (#9) in this spot. She was excellent here this past winter and spring, winning three times and finishing second twice. One of those wins came in open company at the end of the meet in May, while the other four came in state bred company. She was a private purchase after that race and moved into Saffie Joseph’s barn. She was good in the Game Face Stakes in June, but she was awesome in the Azalea in July. She faltered in the Charles Town Oaks in August, but I never fault horses that run poorly in those kinds of races. The seven furlong trip there is at two turns and it’s just a quirky track in general. She was wide in the Raven Run against Emery, who is a horse that could be a major contender for next year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, if she stays healthy. Being wide on the dirt course at Keeneland this fall was not typically a winning recipe. She cuts back to six furlongs and returns home. Joseph already has two winners at the meet and he opted to bring this one here instead of running in the Sugar Swirl at Gulfstream yesterday for almost the same purse. She’s listed at 6-1, and I’d hammer her at 3-1 or better in this spot. The backup for me is Merasol Sugar (#6) for John Ortiz. She showed promise on debut, but never quite lived up to that potential when facing some salty opposition. She ran in July at Ellis, going a one turn seven furlong trip for the first time and she looked very good when doing so. One turn sprints may be what she wants to do. While I worry than six furlongs is a touch too short, I do think she’s interesting with this group, while coming off the bench. 

Race 10: 

The week ends with a maiden special weight sprint for fillies and mares, three and up. Coffee Kisses (#4) is the pick in this race, running for Bob Young. His stable is based in the southern midwest area, but this will be his first starter at Oaklawn. This filly cost $400K, which means she at least looked the part last year, because there’s not a ton to go off from her female family. She ran well to be third in her debut at Remington and she continues to work well in the AM. I think she’ll be overlooked because of her connections, but I’m expecting an improved effort here, and I think that will be enough to score with this group. John Ortiz sends out a pair of runners, both making their debuts. I’ll use Leilauni Sue (#2) since Ramon Vazquez, who has ridden a good amount for him, opts for this filly. Girvin is a sneaky good debut sire, winning with 19% of his runners that make their first start in a dirt sprint. There’s some speed and precocity on the dam side, so I think she could make a mice first impression. Norm Casse sends out Songmaker (#11) for her second career try. She faded in the slop when making her debut at Keeneland in the spring. She’s been away for about eight months now and returns after working steadily over the last six weeks. This barn has good numbers off the bench and with second time starters. Over the last five years, he’s won with 21% of his maidens coming back off 45+ day layoffs. He has won with 2 of 13 (15%) runners off 180+ days.

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 15/69 (21.7%, $174.80, $2.53 ROI)