Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 12/27/24 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll end 2024 with three very good cards at Oaklawn, beginning with this 10 race Friday afternoon card. The featured race is a mid-card, optional $100K claiming/money allowance for three year olds, which is the 5th race of the day. First post is 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The final week of racing in 2024 begins with a beaten $35K-$30K claiming race for fillies and mares going one mile. Horses that have either never won three times or haven’t won a race since May 27th, are eligible for this one. It’s interesting that the outside runners in this race are lacking early speed. As a result, I think Sugar Bell (#2) should get the run of the race. Fashion Idol (#3) is cheap speed to her outside that might go to the front once. I don’t see her being able to carry her speed, but she also might concede the lead to this Classic Empire filly. She stretches out for the first time since being moved into Doug Anderson’s barn. She’s run consistent races in her four starts for him, including a game third in her last start at Keeneland when going seven furlongs. Anderson has very good numbers going from sprints to routes. I think she’s going to be tough to run down. Sistersouttachrome (#6) comes back to Arkansas for John Haran after a failed turf experiment two months ago at Hawthorne. Haran might found something with her last season when getting her to stretch out to two turns. Her one turn sprint races are dull, but she is definitely more lively in route races. She might be better suited for state bred races, but this race isn’t a terrible fit by any means. Divine Gal (#8) goes sprint to route for Donnie Von Hemel in her second start off the layoff. The jury is still out whether or not she want to go this far on race day. She went off form after faltering in the Martha Washington Stakes here last winter. Prior to that, she was excellent when winning her first two starts. She came back with a solid effort against a better field of beaten claimers at Churchill in her last start. If she can build off that race, she’ll be very tough with this group. There’s definitely some risk in playing her, especially at 7-2. However, she’s been good enough in the past to make sure she’s covered. 

Race 2: 

Dan Ward had a nice winner here on Sunday and I like his chances with Canadian Pharoah (#7) in this beaten $8K claimer. He faced a very strong field in the “Trail’s Beginning” starter allowance race here on Opening Day. There is no one of the caliber in this race today. He drops in class for his second start of the meet. He was popular at the claim box this summer at Monmouth, but he was re-claimed by Ward on behalf of Brad’s Equine Adventures, most likely with this meet in mind. He’s yet to find the Winner’s Circle here at Oaklawn, but he’s come close. I like how he fits with this group. There’s not a lot of speed signed on for this race, which certainly should benefit Go Cats (#1). He’s one of only two runners from Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez to finish out of the money in the early stages of this meet. He crossed the finish line first here this spring, but was disqualified . He’s trending in the right direction for a barn that has been hot. He could be the controlling speed as well. He is definitely live in this one. Shamayim (#3) comes here after a pair of decent allowance tries at Remington. He is getting class relief, not really as much as the top pick though. He’s a horse that often gets close, but doesn’t win a lot, especially when thinking about the number of off the turf races that he’s been in. He should be closer to the pace than some of the others, which should afford him a trip that keeps him in contention though. 

Race 3:

A field of 14 Arkansas breds entered this $15K maiden claiming race, but as per usual, the maximum number of horses that will be competing is 12. Note that Rerun (#14) is second on the AE list to draw into this race. However, he is in the body of a maiden claiming field tomorrow,so I’m thinking that he winds up there. I’m using him on the A line in this spot because I think he’s the most likely winner if he runs here, but I’m expecting that he’ll be competing tomorrow. Preacher’s Kid (#6) is the pick for me assuming Rerun is out. He was solid when facing better Arkansas breds here last season. He was knocking on the door when facing $20,000-$12,500 maiden company, ($12,500 for non Arkansas breds, and $20K for Arkansas bred runners). Those races are a mixed bag at times where they can be very salty or not that competitive. I think he faced some better fields at that condition last season and if he’s able to run back to his races in March while coming off the bench today, I think he’s going to be tough to beat. Crue’s N Control (#11) blue the break when making his first start since May three weeks ago. He closed with interest to finish a half length better than Willie Cat (#9), who will be a shorter price in this race. He paired his May 27th Beyer Figure so I do think he can move forward with a better start. Willie Cat still makes sense, despite the fact the value will be less than ideal. He gets the leading rider, Cristian Torres in the saddle, and he’s connected 26% when riding for Randy Morse at Oaklawn. He likely needed that race while making his first start since March. I do see him as a candidate to improve in this spot. 

Race 4:

This is the second heat of the beaten $8K claimer with identical conditions to the second race. In terms of speed figures, there’s not much separating the top five runners in this race and the four longshots don’t appear to be fast enough to win. In a beaten $10K claiming race three weeks ago, Euclid Avenue (#8) drew the rail and Cost Basis (#3) was in gate four. These two dueled through solid fractions with Cost Basis winning the battle, but the duel softened him up enough that he lost the war, finishing second that day. Both runners are back in this spot, where there isn’t much other early speed signed on. Both horses are “need the lead” types, so I don’t see Tyler Bacon or Martin Chuan giving in. That should create enough of a pace for Wartime Hero (#9) to storm by both runners. He’s coming out of the same starter allowance race that Canadian Pharoah from the second race competed in. He was a winner here in claimed company last December and he found himself in the Winner’s Circle twice at Louisiana Downs this summer. He’s making his second start off the layoff and facing some rivals that don’t love to win races. While his best work has come outside of Arkansas, I think he fits like the glove with this field. I still think Cost Basis has a chance to put away Euclid Avenue and find a way to hold off the closers in this race. Should one of these two runners scratch, I would definitely upgrade the remaining runner. While I’m not sure that Euclid Avenue is fast enough, lone speed is a great confidence builder, and if Cost Basis got out of his way, that would certainly help his cause. However, if they’re both running, I’m less likely to use that runner for anything other than the deepest of savers. 

Race 5: 

The featured race is an optional $100K/money allowance for three year olds going six furlongs. We saw a competitive race at this condition for fillies on Sunday, and I think this is a promising group of colts and geldings here. Henro (#2) is a multiple stakes winner this year, winning the Iowa Derby at Prairie Meadows going two turns and the Harrods Creek Stakes at Churchill going seven furlongs. He flattened out when finishing 4th in the Steel Valley Sprint at Mahoning Valley in his most recent start. There is a decent amount of speed signed on, and I see him getting the perfect trip, about five lengths off a contentious pace. Look for him to come over the top and add another Oaklawn win to what has already been an impressive 2024 campaign. While I think he’s going to be up against it from a pace standpoint, Glengarry (#5) has proven that he is a true gamer. He won his first three starts before narrowly losing in the Remington Springboard Mile last December. He was awesome in the Lafayette at Keeneland this spring, but he was sidelined once again until November. He also ran in the Steel Valley Sprint where he carved out some strong fractions over a tiring track in Eastern Ohio. He clearly needed that race and the fact that he’s running again a month later is a positive after a three year old season that definitely hasn’t gone as planned. If he can win the early pace battle before they hit the quarter pole, he could be tough to run down. Save the Trees (#4) is a deeper saver for me. I prefer him underneath in the vertical exotics, but I could use him as a deeper backup on the horizontals. He’s another closer, and being posted outside of Henro might give Ramon Vazquez a tactical advantage. I think Henro is the better horse, but if he encounters trouble, this Preservationist gelding should be able to take advantage. 

Race 6: 

On paper, this $30K starter allowance race feels like a showdown between Devil’s Tower (#2) and Disco Ball (#8), and there’s a good chance that these two win machines will lock up and pull clear of the rest of this field at the top of the stretch. However, both horses have the same running style, Devil’s Tower can be content to track from the outside, but his inward draw feels like it’s going to commit him to go with the pace. As a result, this duo could be in for a prolonged duel and going gate to wire in that fashion on this course at this point in the meet has been a difficult task. If the pace meltdown scenario is in play, Spankster (#1) is the most likely beneficiary in my eyes. Jade Cunningham gets him back on the dirt after a pair of turf sprints in Kentucky. He’s not the most consistent type and it’s fair to wonder if the last five races are indicative of who this horse is right now. However, he had some big efforts on this oval in the past. The pace fell apart in a race at this condition back in March when he blew up the toteboard at 34-1. Emmanuel Esquivel isn’t winning at the same clip he was here last year, but he’s been close, finishing second or third with 14 of 32 runners at this meet. He’ll get the mount on this son of Mastery for the first time. While Devil’s Tower has the better winning percentage (17 for 38, 44%) in his career, I think the outside draw and the recent company lines give Disco Ball the slight advantage over his rival, if I were choosing the second choice. However, the difference between the two runners is marginal. 

Race 7: 

A dozen runners are signed on for this $10K starter allowance going six furlongs. This is another race where there is a decent amount of early speed signed on. I think Atomic Tone (#10) is going to be able to sit off the pace, somewhere in the middle of the pack, and then come with a strong late bid here. He was in excellent form at Monmouth over the summer, but he has tailed off a bit in his recent efforts. Despite running races that have been below average from a speed figure standpoint in his last few starts, he has still been competitive. The pace scenario should be more favorable today, as well as the six furlong distance. Eight of his ten career victories have come at this distance in 18 career tries (44.4%). Perhaps he’s more effective at Jersey Shore, but I see him as a player with this field. Therideofalifetime (#11) was eligible to race with the waiver when coming off a similar layoff last year. He destroyed an overmatched $10K claiming field that afternoon before coming back two months later to beat up a field of $12,500 starter allowance foes. His last start before the lengthy layoff was forgettable. He’s run well fresh in the past and Jonas Gibson is a high percentage trainer who had several winners here last season. He’s a deserving favorite with this field, but if his odds fall below his 5-2 morning line, I will be using a little more caution. Ram (#1) is a hard-trying horse that is usually a better fit for the bottom parts of the vertical exotics. He is making his second start off the layoff and two of his three career wins have come on this oval. He’ll likely need to be closer to the 2023 version of himself, but he’s another one that could be gaining late if the pace falls apart. The deeper saver for me in this race El Diablo Rojo (#9). He was a winner three weeks ago at this condition coming from off the pace to win a 5 ½ furlong dash. For whatever reason, he’s struggled at this distance though. He’s 0-13 when going six furlongs and a bounce could be in play. He’s worth using as a deeper backup because of his fit in the field. However, I am worried that he won’t be able to replicate his last performance after 20 days off. 

Race 8: 

Fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in this $12,500 maiden claiming race. It’s no secret what the strategy is going to be for the favorite, Boogie Woogie Gal (#10). Assuming she breaks well, she’s going to the lead and she should be able to get it because I don’t see anyone in this field fast enough to go with her early. However, it’s often a familiar story with her. She takes a lot of public money, goes to the lead, but she can’t quite hold on. What she does have working in her favor in this race is that there are very few instances of horses in this race that have shown the ability to pass runners in the stretch. I’ll use her because I do think there’s a decent chance this turns into a merry-go-round kind of race, however, I’ll try the second choice, Inventing Anna (#2) as the top pick. She’s had 16 chances to break her maiden, so I’m not loving taking 5-2 (ML) on her. However, many of those races came on the turf and synthetic. Her dirt form should be very competitive with this group. Mark Casse takes over the training, and he’;s done a good job of finding the right spots for his runners at this meet. I think she can catch the favorite in this spot. If there’s a longshot that has a shot here, perhaps it’s Medicine Show (#9). She didn’t show much in her first three career starts. However, she cut back from a mile to 6 ½ furlongs in her last start at Remington and she ran a better race, finishing a close 4th with $10K maidens there. This is a step up in class and she’s going to have to run another career top figure if she’s going to finish in the money. However, she’s a three year old with only four career starts, so I do see her as a candidate for improvement. Perhaps she’s the way to work some value into this race. 

Race 9:

An overflow field of 14 fillies and mares have signed on for this N1X allowance sprint. I always enjoy these races at Oaklawn because horses can be eligible to run at this condition here if they have cleared the condition at a track with a lower purse structure. Titled Lady (#12) is one of a few runners in this race that fits that category. She won a N2L and a N3L allowance race at Remington last year. She ran in a few races at this condition, including an excellent near miss in April. She went to Churchill where she was not eligible for the N1X or N2X condition, so she was entered in a $40K claimer where she was claimed. She was claimed there and then again in her next start at Saratoga. Since then, her first two starts haven’t been great. She was eased when facing N2X allowance company while entered for the tag at Keeneland. She came back at that level here and was a decent third in a slower race for that condition. She drops in class for this race, but is protected from being claimed. This is her third start for Maker and I think she’s sitting on a better effort. She has had strong races on this course in the past, and while she does run some inexplicably bad races from time to time, I see value if she’s sitting on the board close to her 10-1 morning line figure. Queen’s Martini (#4) is another filly in this race that is getting class relief. She ran well to be third with N2X company last time out at Churchill. She’s making her fourth start for Ron Moquett, who seems to have her trending in the right direction going into this spot. She fits the pace and track profile for this race. The morning line favorite is Claret Beret (#6), who is making her 9th career start. Five of her races have come on the turf or synthetic, and while some of those races were okay, her best career race in that group is a third place in a maiden special weight at Keeneland. Her three efforts on dirt however, are significantly better. She’s won all three of those races by a combined margin of nearly 15 lengths. This will be the saltiest field she’s faced to do date on the dirt, but the potential is certainly there. Another strong effort from her will make $62,500 claim at Keeneland seem like a very wise decision. 

Race 10: 

I’m not in love with the experienced runners in this state bred maiden special weight race for fillies and mares. If Doubledaddy Issues (#13) draws into this race, I think she could be tough. Her dam was a debut winner and her full sibling just missed on debut when running here in January of 2023. The works are decent for a barn that is capable of winning with debut runners. Paris Accord (#4) is an A line play and the backup top pick if the AE runner doesn’t compete. She’s a half to You Vee Cee, who is a useful Arkansas bred runner. Ernie Witt tends to find a debut winner at least one time a year over the meet here at Oaklawn. She’s sired by Mark Valeski, who gets 7% winners with debut runners in dirt sprints, however, that number goes up to 14% on this oval (2-14), most of those races coming against Arkansas breds. The works are solid here as well, so there’s reason to believe that she can compete at first asking. Aurora Gee (#3) is the preferred runner with experience in this spot. She ran well to be third in her second career start when facing Haulin Ice. That filly is one of the best Arkansas breds in training right now after beating open company here earlier this meet. Something seemed to be amiss last out when she finished near the back of the pack in state bred maiden claiming company. She was given time off and she returns in a protected spot after some solid works here leading up to her return. Donnie Von Hemel has decent numbers with runners off the layoff. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Actin’ Up (#12). There’s some recency there, after facing open company in her first two tries at Remington Park. I would have liked to have seen a better effort last out when making her second career start. Her debut wasn’t terrible, but there was regression last out. Perhaps trying to be closer to the pace in the early stages was not the right strategic move. Rafael Bejarano is definitely a rider upgrade and the outside draw could be a plus. 

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 17/79 (21.5%, $189.20, $2.39 ROI)