Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 12/29/24 – By Eric Solomon

Two years ago, Oaklawn made the last day of racing of the calendar year, a card devoted entirely to two year olds. Ken McPeek was a four time winner the first year they started doing this and he had a pair of winners last year. However, Steve Asmussen was the headliner here last season, earning four wins on this program, propelling him to a comfortable lead in the trainer standings, which he never relinquished. There’s 10 races today, headlined by the Years End Stakes for two year old fillies going one mile. That race kicks off the local road to the Kentucky Oaks Series. Bad weather forced the cancellation of the final nine races yesterday. The forecast for this afternoon is better, but the course could have some residual moisture from the last two days. Expect the course to dry out some throughout the day. First post for the last day of racing in Arkansas in 2024 is 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Two year old fillies start the afternoon in a $65K maiden claiming race. Horses that sold for less than $65K or were RNA in their last auction, are eligible to run in this race without the claiming tag. There are three short prices on the morning line, but I think this race is a little more wide open than those figures suggest. Both Vino Tiempo (#2) and Mimi’s Grace (#9) are coming out of the same open maiden special weight contest. Vino Tiempo finished about five lengths behind Mimi’s Grace in that race. Both fillies are dropping in class, but Vino Tiempo was wide throughout last time when breaking the 10 hole. She was passing some rivals late, but was never involved. Meanwhile, Mimi’s Grace was favored in that race and she had a much better trip. She came up empty in the stretch, falling eight lengths behind the winner. She now draws the outside post and loses the leading rider, who opts to ride the Stidham first timer. Vino Tiempo on the other hand paired her first two Beyer Figures and should be sitting on a bigger effort in her third career start for Thomas Vance. If she’s close to her 20-1 morning line figure, I think that would be the best value on the board. Lil Breezzy (#1) makes her third career start and her first at two turns. She closed from off the pace to finish second in her first two tries when facing restricted maiden special weight company. While this shows up at a drop into maiden claiming company, this really isn’t a true drop in class. I like the move to two turns at this point and her rail draw should allow her to save ground going into the first turn. She definitely feels like a contender in this race. Kenny McPeek had four winners on this all two year old card in 2022 and he had a pair of winners on this card last year. He’s represented in five races today and he’ll send out the duo of Undisputed Victory (#6) and Sight to See (#7). The latter runner is the morning line favorite after just missing in a six furlong race here two weeks ago. She runs back quickly and I’m not sure if her pedigree is crying out for two turns. However, her last race was good enough to at least consider using her. Undisputed Victory was never involved in her debut with open maiden special weight company at Turfway. Perhaps she had no interest in the Tapeta surface there, but I do usually like to see a little more interest in a horse on debut, especially when there’s no visible excuse for a lifeless effort. The dam has produced a graded stakes winner at two turns on the dirt, so I’d be willing to consider using her as a deeper saver in this spot, especially with Leparoux taking the assignment.

Race 2: 

A dozen two year olds are entered in this $30K maiden claiming sprint, going six furlongs. Dan Ward has brought some live runners from the Mid-Atlantic region and many of them have gone off at fair odds. He’ll send out Nothing But Heir (#5) for his third career start today. He just missed in a maiden special weight race at Monmouth over the summer. He came back a month later at Laurel where he was entered with the waiver in an optional maiden claiming race. He had a rough break that day where he was bumped into and then forced to steady because of the same horse. He split horses while making a strong middle move, but flattened out after coming with a wide bid while racing on the wrong lead for the better part of the stretch run. Ward gave him a little extra time off and now drops him in class. He’s drawn inside posts for his first two starts, so drawing in the middle of the gate may suit him better. We Need a Favor (#9) drops in class after finishing up the track with open maiden special weight company two weeks ago. He’s making his second start off a three month break and his Beyer Figures have gradually improved with each start. He feels like a horse that could be overlooked in this race. Real Blues (#11) is another horse to consider using. He’s cutting back to a sprint after a 6th place finish with open maiden special weight company here two weeks ago. He ran well enough at Hawthorne on debut to consider playing him back at this level today. 

Race 3:

There are some promising two year olds signed on for this six furlong maiden special weight. The logical play in this one is Innovator (#2), who has faced some of the top horses in his generation so far. He was second in the Advent Stakes where he was no match for Kale’s Angel. He has strong figures, but he is 0-6 in his career and he’s been a beaten favorite in two of those races. He’s definitely an A line play because it’s going to take a strong effort from someone to beat him. However, I do see a few interesting first time starters that I’m going to want to have on my tickets. I’ll roll the dice and make the 20-1 longshot, Just Classic (#5) as the top pick. His dam, Jenny’s Rocket, has foaled a pair of debut winners. Her best foal is the multiple stakes winner, Necker Island. The works are reasonable and while the barn has struggled at this meet, Ray Ashford has hit with 15% of his debut runners over the last two years. The sire, Justify, gets 19% debut winners with dirt sprinters. There’s a lot to like with this one. Brad Cox has really struggled at this meet, but as a result, there might be actual value on his debut runner, Caribbean Dream (#7). He’s a Tapit first time starter and the first foal to compete from the mare, Golden Mischief. She was a seven time stakes winner, including one of those stakes wins on this oval. She was a Grade 2 winner for Juddmonte and they’ve opted to keep this Tapit colt, who looks promising. 

Race 4:

We’ll move on to an optional $62,500 claiming/$50K starter allowance race going six furlongs. Peter Miller has been very sharp with the runners that he’s sent here and I think he has another live runner with Farley Hall (#6). He was claimed for $32K when breaking his maiden at Del Mar last month. He’s improved his Beyer figures in his three career starts. That was an impressive performance and there’s reason to believe that he can take another step forward for his new connections. Big Rasee (#10) invades from Delta for Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez, who is also clicking at a high level in the early part of this meet. He came back after a three month break and looked like a much sharper horse. He paired his last two Beyer Figures there. He is stretching out to six furlongs, which could be a touch too far. However, I think he fits well with this group. On deeper tickets, El Sargento (#7) was given a little extra time after finishing 3rd in allowance company when making his 5th career start. Genaro Garcia has targeted this meet so the runners that he’s brought here have had a lot of success this month. As a result, he feels like a horse that could have a forward move.

Race 5: 

There’s plenty of unfamiliar faces in this maiden special weight race for Arkansas bred two year olds. 12 of the 14 runners entered are first time starters. The other two runners have a race under their belt in open company at Remington and Delta. From a pedigree standpoint, Army Mule is a strong first out sire and we’ve seen his influence in many Mid-Atlantic based runners over the last few seasons. He covered two of the Arkansas bred runners in this race and I think both have a live look. I’ll give the slight edge to War Mule (#3), mostly because of the human connections. He’s the first foal to race from an unraced Graydar dam. Bret Calhoun has respectable numbers with firsters, although I do prefer to play his horses in their second starts. He’s been working consistently, likely waiting for an opportunity to run in the lucrative state bred races here. Battleoftheravine (#9) is the other Army Mule sired runner who has a decent shot in this race. The dam produced a first out winner and she herself was competitive at first asking. He’s a homebred for Flurry Racing Stables LLC and this outfit tends to employ several different local trainers. Kevin Martin is looking to break through here at Oaklawn after winning 19% of his races in 2024. Bote (#12) is the morning line favorite after a strong debut effort at Delta Downs when going five furlongs. He stretches out to six furlongs, but that lone race does give him an advantage where so many other runners are racing for the first time. The outside post is another plus, especially when considering the race he likely wants to run. My Russian (#13) is worth including on deeper tickets, should he make it into the body of the field. Al Cates has decent numbers with debut runners. He’s sired by freshman sire, Petrov, who was a debut winner. His first two runners did not win their debuts, but one did hit the board. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 begins with a maiden special weight for two year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles. I handicapped this sequence prior to the morning line being assigned, and I was surprised to see Good Game (#9) showing up at 8-1. I thought she’d be no worse than the second choice in the wagering, knowing Rodolphe Brisset has very good numbers with second time starters. The duo of Torres and Brisset lost in a heartbreaker here last week with a second time starter. I guessed this one would be listed at 7-2, which would stamp her as a horse to try to beat. The dam was a graded stakes winner sprinter, but none of her four other runners to make it to the racetrack were able to win in two turn races on the dirt. Her sire, Game Winner, is 0-17 in dirt route races early on as a sire. It will be interesting to see how that trend plays out as his two year olds turn three. At 7-2, he was an absolute play against for me. However, if he’s sitting there at a number that is closer to his 8-1 morning line, I’d consider backing up with him, strictly from a connections standpoint. Poppyland (#4) is the horse that I like the best in this race. She’s making her third career start for John Ortiz, and her third start at this distance. She finished third to some nice horses in her first two tries at Keeneland and Churchill. She’s working better in the mornings as she seems to be enjoying the local surroundings. She’s a half to Ice Orchid who has run very well on this course and is graded stakes placed here. Princess Em Too (#10) is another filly making her third career start. She’s trying two turns for the first time as she has been gradually stretching out in distance. Phil D’Amato doesn’t have a huge presence here, but she has been training here and she’s set to be his first start at this meet. Her half sister, Xena, won three starts in a row at two turns this year in Indiana and was most recently second in the Zia Park Oaks. Queen Jubilee (#1) makes her 4th career start for Whit Beckman. She paired her Beyers in her first two starts at this distance at Churchill. She finished in a three horse photo with Poppyland in her last start  at Churchill. She was closer to a decent pace that day and she figures to be up close again in this spot with her rail draw. She feels like a candidate to move forward in this spot. 

Race 7: 

This is another maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies, this one carded for six furlongs. I’ll try Bee Bluff (#1) on top in this spot, She makes her fifth career start this afternoon, while cutting back in distance from a route and going turf to dirt for Lindsay Schultz. She faced a very sharp group in maiden special weight company two back at Keeneland where she was distant third. The dominating winner of that race, Impulse Buy, was recently the winner of the Fern Creek Stakes at Churchill. The second place finisher was a winner in a one mile maiden special weight race there. This filly tried routing on the turf in New Orleans, and while her figure came back okay, that didn’t appear to be her thing. She was competitive in sprints at Monmouth this summer and I think she’ll fit well with this group. There’s always some extra juice when there’s a sibling to a  Derby winner making their debut, and that is the case with Yes Ma’am (#8), who is a half to Mystik Dan. She was sired by Unified, who is getting 13% winners with his debut runners in dirt sprints. Mystik Dan was second on debut before running a big race to break his maiden in his second start. I was very surprised to see this one listed at 12-1 on the morning line of that. I think 6-1 is much more realistic, and honestly, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if she was made the favorite in this spot where there really doesn’t appear to be much of a standout. Regardless, I’m interested to see what she can do. Sister Lily (#4) is another first time starter here, making her debut for Michael Stidham. His runners have struggled early on at this meet, but  I do think this filly could have some ability. She’s been working consistently here since the track opened up for training. She’s sired by Into Mischief, who continues to hit with 18% of his debut runners in dirt sprint races. She’s the second foal to race from the mare, Ursula, who was a winner in her second career start. Her only other foal to race hasn’t shown much, but I do think this filly is better than her.

Race 8: 

The last Pick-3 of the afternoon begins with an optional $125K claiming/N1X allowance race going one mile. They ran a race at this exact condition 15 days ago, perhaps in hopes of finding some starters for the Smarty Jones Stakes here next weekend. None of the runners that were scheduled to compete that day are back in this race, however, Big Much (#2) was entered in that spot. He was scratched at the gate prior to the race and was not able to go. The fact that he shows up 15 days later tells me that he’s no worse for wear. He’s making his first start since September where he broke his maiden at Churchill. I liked that effort enough to play him as the top pick in the Street Sense Stakes at the end of October. He scratched out of that spot and now appears to be set to make his second career start. Norm Casse continued to be patient with this son of Outwork, who should appreciate the two turn trip. His sire, Outwork, gets 13% winners in dirt route races. Amor Patriae (#6) is the other runner that I’ll use in this spot. He was a winner three weeks ago when beating a decent maiden special weight field at this distance. He was completely overlooked in the wagering, going off at 30-1 in his second career start. Nik Juarez put him near the front end after falling behind most of the runners throughout most of the race in his debut at Keeneland. I like how he finished that race and I see him as a candidate to move forward here. 

Race 9, The $175K Years End Stakes:

The featured race on the all two year old card is the first race on the Arkansas path to the Kentucky Oaks. One runner from this race last year (Tapit Jenallie) wound up competing in the 2024 Oaks. The same was true in 2022 when Defining Purpose won here, leading up to her 7th place finish in the Oaks. Taxed was in that race and while she was excluded from the Oaks, she would win the Black Eyed Susan that year. Someone in this field is going to have to take a big step forward to be considered for those races down the road, but it’s early in the prep season, so anything is possible. I think Glee (#4) is the one to beat in this race. She’s made six starts for Asmussen, winning three of them, while spending most of her time on lesser circuits. She struggled in her lone start on a top tier circuit when she finished off the board in the Debutante Stakes. She was beaten by Vodka With a Twist who recently went on to be second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was awesome in two starts at Remington, winning those races by a combined total of 26 plus lengths. 2004 Derby winning jockey, Stewart Elliot was aboard for both of those romps and he makes the trip to Hot Springs today to ride this Honor A.P. filly. She aced the two turn test last out, stalking the pace before moving powerfully to front and never looking back. She might not have the highest ceiling, but I think she fits well with this group. The backup for me here is the recent maiden winner, Jenkin (#6). She was a longshot winner at this distance on this course when breaking her maiden on Opening Day here. That was her third career start and she definitely took a step forward when making her third career start. She’s likely going to need to set another career top figure to win this race, but I think that kind of effort could be within reach.

Race 10: 

The last race of 2024 in Arkansas is a maiden special weight for two year olds going 1 1/16 miles. D. Wayne Lukas is going to send out the likely post time favorite, American Promise (#1). He’s a definite use for me in this race, making his 6th career start. He’s definitely proven to be better at two turns, running two strong Beyer Figures in his last two starts at Churchill. He’s sired by Triple Crown winner, Justify, and he’s a half to the talented mare, Hoosier Philly. He’s been facing tougher fields and has a huge shot in here. I am a little curious as to why Lukas opted to use the apprentice, Tyler Bacon on this runner though. While I like him a lot, I am going to try to get some value with the top pick, giving the nod to Restless Renegade (#7). Kenny McPeek had four winners on this card two years ago, and I think his experienced runners are always dangerous in dirt routes at this level this time of year. He’s the second foal to run from the Grade 1 winning mare, Restless Rider. He paired his first two Beyer Figures in decent maiden races at Churchill this fall. The pace was hot in both races, which certainly didn’t help his cause last out when he tried to set that aggressive temp. He backed out of the picture in that race after having some traffic issues when he was stuck in behind runners on debut. I like the longer distance which should afford him a better opportunity to relax off the early leaders. I think we’ll see a decent step forward from him.

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 21/90 (23.3%, $225.40, $2.50 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)