Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 2/1/25 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll start the month of February with a 10 race Saturday afternoon card at Oaklawn. The featured stakes today is the $150K American Beauty Stakes for fillies and mares, four and up, sprinting six furlongs. First post this afternoon is scheduled for 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

A field of seven has been assembled for this $20K starter allowance that kicks off the Saturday card. Samurai Prince (#4) gets the top call for me in this race. He’s coming off a strong performance against a salty $30K-$25K open claiming field here last month. He pressed a respectable pace and tied for the win with the gritty veteran, Payne. He was entered with the waiver in that spot, so the fact that Timothy Martin moves him to a level where he’ll remain protected, tells me that this seven year old gelding is in strong form. I think he keeps Show Time (#1) honest early on and then makes the move at the top of the stretch to take charge. I think there are some runners underneath that make some sense at decent odds. Despite a miserable trip, Lunar Module (#3) was not terrible here in the mud at this level in his last start. He was sharper in his prior race when facing open $25K claiming foes at Churchill. After a sunny and dry day yesterday, he should be back on a fast course today. He feels like a rebound candidate in this spot. I’m Wide Awake (#7) has been half asleep in his first two starts off the layoff for John Haran. However, he keeps running in protected spots, so that tells me that he’s doing all of the right things in the mornings. He was a winner with open claiming company here last season and he was sparkling in June with starter allowance at Churchill. He’s making his third start off the bench today, so there’s reason to believe that he’ll wake up with this group. 

Race 2: 

The Early Pick-4 starts with a $30K maiden claiming race for three year olds going one mile. Ragnow (#7) is an interesting runner shipping here from the Fair Grounds for Keith Desormeaux. He ran a strong race in a restricted maiden claiming contest two starts back, but was flat in his last start there at this level. He gets class relief, moving into open $30K maiden claiming. I think he’s a decent fit with this group. Computing Champ (#4)will try two turns for the first time after five sprint races to start his career. He ran well in his first start over this oval when going six furlongs in his last start. If he’s able to run back to that effort, he should be right in the mix with this group. Expect him to be a little closer to the front end in the early stages of this one. A longshot that might be worth considering is Stonington (#10) for Lindsay Schultz. He ran okay in an off the turf maiden special weight race at Delaware three starts ago. Toss his effort on the turf at Keeneland two back where he was in over his head on the grass for the first time. He caught a muddy track at this level last out and had a wide trip when the inner lanes were better. He’s likely going to have to navigate another tough trip while breaking from post 10, however, a stronger effort is not out of the question. 

Race 3:

Only six three year olds are entered in this N1X allowance sprint. I loved the effort from Hola Joey (#6) on Opening Weekend here. He sat near the back of the pack and came with a powerful five e-wide bid, blowing by the competition and winning by four widening lengths. He was visually impressive in the slop in his debut at Remington as well. Four of the six runners want to be on the lead in the spot, so he should be sitting another favorable trip. While speed was good earlier in the day on Friday, we saw a track that was playing fairly by the end of the card as it was drying out. I expect to see more of the same today, so I think this modest colt has a big chance here. If Most Likely (#4) takes to the dirt, he’s going to be the main threat to the top pick. He broke his maiden on December first when going 6 ½ furlongs on the Tapeta at Woodbine, while making his 5th career start. He came down here with the Casse contingent and he’s worked well enough over this course. While the distance might be a touch short, his pedigree suggests that traditional dirt will be no problem. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares, three and up, will run six furlongs in a $12,500 maiden claiming race. Three of the ladies competing were bred in Arkansas, so they’ll run with a $20K claiming tag. Joyful Pursuit (#2) drops in class for this race, making her third career start for Steve Asmussen. This barn has been relatively cold at this meet, winning with only 11 runners, despite sending out over 130 starters. However, he had two winners yesterday and his runners in general have been running better races lately, and they’re not getting bet, which tells me this could be a good time buy low on his stock here. He was the leading trainer at this meet last season and he’s sent out more than twice the runners than any other trainer. He’s finding better spots for his horses like this filly who was a distant third in her local debut. She gets Lasix for the first time here and should be a little closer to the early pace with not much speed signed on for this one. Coldasice (#9) feels like the one to beat in her second career try. She did everything but win in her debut at the end of December. She hit the front with a powerful late kick, but she was lugging in while tiring late to finish second. If she improves a little bit in this spot, they might all be running for second place. However, she ran well on an off track, now she’ll have to prove she can handle a fast surface. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Air Castle (#5), who is dropping in class. She ran in a restricted maiden special weight last out where she ran well enough to be second. She could be the lone speed if none of the newcomers decide to apply some pressure. She drops in class to a level where she finished third last year. She’s third off the layoff, so she has every right to move forward. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 wagers end with a maiden/optional $80K claiming race for three year olds and up, going one mile. Horses that were sold for $75K or RNA at their latest auction are exempt from running with a tag. I’m intrigued with Paint Baller (#8), starting in the outside stall for D. Wayne Lukas. He debuted in a tougher restricted maiden special weight race at Churchill in November. He ran 6th in what was a productive debut. He’s been working well in the interim over this course and now stretches out to a mile. I think we could see a better effort from this four year old in his second career try. Brother Tony (#5) is the morning line favorite, after finishing second in an open maiden special weight race here two weeks ago. He faced older horses that day and is doing so once again today. He runs credible races, but not necessarily winning races, so I’d proceed with caution when using him at a short price. However, he holds a class edge over many of these. Stoke the Fire (#6) comes back to conventional dirt for this race. He debuted at Ellis in the summer of 2023 where he finished 4th. He came back in the spring of 2024 where he was a non-factor in a turf race at Gulfstream. He started showing signs of improvement in three starts at Woodbine this year when racing for Mark Casse. He moves to Ron Moquett’s barn for his four year old debut. The dam won the Apple Blossom on this oval in 2013, so the family affinity for this course could be there. He’s an interesting longshot in this race.

Race 6: 

The back half of the Saturday program begins with a N1X allowance race for fillies and mares,four and up, going 1 1/16 miles. Claret Beret (#3) is interesting in this race, stretching out to a true two-turn dirt race for the first time in her career. She had trouble in her last race in the mud when she finished 4th as the favorite in a six furlong sprint. While she failed to score, she was flattered when Titled Lady, who won that race, came back to clear the N2X condition on yesterday’s program. That distance is likely a little short for her, so I support the move to this distance, especially since she certainly could have entered in the next race at this same condition, but going six furlongs. Her lone start at one mile on the dirt was a win at Ellis. I think she holds a class edge and may offer value in this race. Both Under the Palms (#1) and Xena (#6) were last seen squaring off the Zia Park Oaks in November. Xena was second, five lengths better than Under the Palms, who checked in third. On this oval though, I’d give a slight edge to Under the Palms. She ran some sharp races here last season, breaking her maiden on Arkansas Derby Day in March. She found the Winner’s Circle again in the fall when winning a state bred stakes race at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The McPeek barn is firing on all cylinders at this meet and I think this filly will run well in her return to Hot Springs.  Xena also had success in Indiana, winning all three of her career races there this summer. She was no match for Valence at Zia, but she ran well in her stakes debut. Despite clearing the N2X level there, she remains eligible for the N1X condition here because of the smaller purses in Indiana. Look for her early on in this race, but she’s going to come under pressure late. 

Race 7:

The Late Pick-4 begins with another N1X allowance race for fillies and mares, but this one is carded for six furlongs. This is a wide open contest with several possible winners. Lemonesse (#5) is a deeper closer and that may be the right running style for this race. She was bothered at the break on a muddy course last out. Closers were struggling to get home on that course. She should have every opportunity to make a run here as there appears to be plenty of early speed signed on. She’s the top pick in a wide open race. Lite It Up Louie (#3) could be flying under the radar in this spot. She was away slowly in a race at this level on opening weekend. She gained ground to finish 5th, but never really got to run her race. She fits from a pace scenario as she should be in the second flight in the early stages of this race. She was in very good form prior to coming here, so I do see her as a candidate to rebound here. Edistrudis (#7) ran the race last out that I hoped she was going to run two starts ago. She was solid here as a three year old and now she adds blinkers for the first time. I think Contreras has started to figure some things out with this Practical Joke filly. There is some other speed for her to contend with, but if the blinkers help her relax, she’ll be dangerous in this race. On deeper tickets, Punchy Girl (#8) is worth a look. She has early speed, but she was a winner here last season in a race where she came from off the pace. She has a good record on this course and at this distance. 

Race 8: 

Arkansas breds will go six furlongs in this $25K-$20K N3L claiming race. The horse to beat is clearly Strike Ridge (#7). He came back off the layoff with a strong effort in starter allowance company two weeks ago. When Hartman is the trainer of record, this horse typically runs his race, and that race is generally better than what most of this field is capable of running. He looms large in this race, but there’s unlikely to be any value with him. These are the most consistent horses, so I’ll use him on the A line, but I’ll take a swing with Chez Whiz (#11) as the top pick. He has absolutely no early speed, which was his downfall last time out. He had a rough start on a muddy course two back. He doesn’t typically run his race on off tracks and he was making his first start off a lengthy layoff. I would have liked to have seen Tyler Bacon try to keep his early position last time out because he broke well and settled into 7th in the first ½ furlong. He lost a lot of ground after that, fading to last. He was better than the favorite in the Rainbow Stakes last year. He’s the kind of horse that gets better with more starts. He’s making his third start off the layoff while getting some class relief. At 10-1 (ML) or better, he’s worth taking a chance on here. 

Race 9, The $150K American Beauty Stakes:

While there’s seven fillies and mares entered in this six furlong sprint, this feels like it’s going to be a very good two horse race between Fibber (#1) breaking from the rail, and Benedetta (#7) starting the outside stall. Both four year old fillies are stakes winners, with Benedetta scoring her third straight win in a $200K stakes race at Mahoning Valley in her last start and Fibber scoring in the Audubon Oaks at Ellis this summer. Fibber just missed in the Poinsettia Stakes here in her most recent start, but she had a lot of pace to chase that day. For a sprint stakes race, there isn’t a wealth of early speed signed on which should favor Benedetta. She was given a little time off after her last victory. Asmussen has had her based locally and she’s been working consistently each week since the end of December. She doesn’t need the lead, but she should be right on the pace here with her outside draw. She was Grade 3 placed as a two year old, but went off form. She was moved to Steve Asmussen’s barn for her three year old campaign, where she caught fire this fall. We’ve seen him have great success with sprinters, especially in stakes races at Oaklawn. I think this filly keeps on rolling, despite the fact that this barn is ice cold right now. Fibber is the logical backup. She was third in the Grade 2 Raven Run at Keeneland behind a very promising filly, Emery. Benedetta was five lengths better than her in Ohio, however, I won’t necessarily hold that race against her as that track at Mahoning Valley can be a little funky, especially for horses running over that surface for the first time. She was sharper last out where she simply ran out of real estate while closing with a flourish. She’s going to win her share of races, but I’m not sure she gets the best setup today. 

Race 10:

Arkansas breds end the day with a $50K maiden claiming sprint. Cool and Cloudy (#4) made his first start in nearly a year at the end of December in a race at a similar class level to this. He was working well while going into that race and ran an even 4th that afternoon. He’s worked well since then and he gets a significant jockey upgrade to Cristian Torres. If he can improve a little bit off that last effort, he’s going to be tough to beat in this race. Hayahlookatme (#9) just missed at this level last March when making his third career start. He moved back up to maiden special weight company and he faltered. He’s been on the sidelines since that race and now he makes his first start since joining Steve Asmussen’s ban. You don’t see a lot of Asmussen’s horses firing bullet works, but this one was sharp in his last work at Louisiana Downs. He might need this race before we see his best, so I’m not eager to take too short of a price on him. However, Asmussen’s barn is starting to heat up and there’s not a ton of great competition on paper for here. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in Mr. Butch (#3). He’s been more competitive in his maiden claiming races compared to his two maiden special weight races. He’s second off the layoff and it took him a while to get moving in his last start. Adding blinkers here might help his cause. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 46/212 (21.3%, $459.00, $2.17 ROI)

January 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 24/112 (21.4%, $223.40, $1.99 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)