Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 2/14/25 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll begin the week with the last scheduled four day race week of the season. There’s a ten race program, highlighted by  a stakes quality allowance race for older sprinters going six furlongs in the 9th race. The forecast appears to be dry today, but heavy rains could be the horizon tomorrow, which is something to keep an eye out for. First post this Valentine’s Day card is scheduled for 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The week begins with a $25K-$20K maiden claiming for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. While the race is open to three year old fillies, all eight runners are four years old in this race. While I don’t love playing maidens that have lost 14 times, I do think there could be some value with A Dollar a Day (#4) in this race. All 14 career starts for this six year old mare have come in maiden special weight company. Her last race, which was her first local start, wasn’t terrible despite getting hung out wide on both turns. Prior to her last start, 12 of her 13 career races have company in Kentucky against solid maiden competition. Her lone start outside outside of Kentucky came against a maiden allowance field at Horseshoe Indianapolis last spring, and that was by far her best race. There’s not a ton of early speed in this race, but I do think she has enough tactical speed to stalk whatever kind of pace that will be established. Miss World Peace (#2) made her first start in over a year last month when facing $30K maiden claimers in six furlong sprint. She stretches out to two turns for the first time in her career, while running for a barn that has had success in the past with those kinds of runners. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Santana take a little initiative to possibly try to steal this one on the front end. The same could be said for Midway Vow (#3) making her second start off the layoff for Steve Asmussen. For a barn that has sent 165 horses to post this meet, I would think his winning percentage would be higher than 9%, especially since his average last year was 18%. Her lone start at two turns back in November was the best in her career. She was flat at this level in her last start, but I think she should be more fit for this spot. I’m not crazy about her as the favorite, but I do think she’s worth keeping on your tickets. 

Race 2: 

Four year olds and up will go 1 3/16 miles in this $12,500 starter allowance race that is also restricted to runners that have not won twice since September 14th. This is another tricky race because I do think Antigravity (#6) makes a ton of sense in this race. However, it’s really hard to get excited about taking a short price on a horse that is 0-13 on this course. I think there’s plenty of pace for him to close into, especially in this longer race. He fits from a class perspective, but I’m a little concerned as to why he missed a race last month. He’s the backup for me in this spot. While I’m a little worried that Fightertown (#3) is going to be a little too close to the front end, he certainly could get first run on Antigravity. He was in very good form in the fall, but missed a little time before coming back at the Fair Grounds two weeks ago. He was in chase mode for the better part of the race before falling apart late. He was facing a tougher group that day, but he’s been sharp with starter allowance company. I think this is a good spot for him to get back on the winning path. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this $12,500 maiden claiming race. As per usual, Arkansas breds will run for a $20,000 tag. Georgia On E’smind (#2) has some early speed and some better efforts than she’s shown in her last two starts. She drops in class after a bad race last time out. John Haran only has four wins at this meet, but he’s done well when finding the right level of competition for his runners. She is making her third start off the layoff in this spot, so there’s hope for improvement. Air Castle (#5) is the morning line favorite. She came up 1 ½ lengths short at this level in her last start and now Prather upgrades the rider to Torres. Three of her last four starts have been solid, but she’s also come up short in each of those races. I hate the short price, but this is not a particularly strong group. On deeper tickets, Medicine Show (#12) could be due to rebound in this race. She ran well at Remington three starts ago. She had a rough break two starts back and seemed to be slow into stride in her last start. She did finish with more interest last time out, which could be a sign that she could be moving forward for this race. 

Race 4:

Arkansas breds will go 1 1/16 miles in this $10K N2L claiming race. Debater (#11) is the pick for me in this race on the drop in class. He’s tried state bred allowance company twice at this meet and he’s been outclassed in both of those starts. He tried two turns again on a sealed, wet-fast course in his latest start. This is his third start off the layoff while also taking a deep drop in class. The 11-hole is not ideal, however, I have a lot of trust in Tyler Bacon who is currently sitting in third place in the rider standings at this meet. It’s hard to figure out what to make of Reveille Valley (#2). He ran a huge race with $20,000-$12,500 maiden claimers in what was his 4th career start. After his first three starts, that race seemed to come out of left field. You could argue that his first two starts last season were both in sprint races against better competition. He went to the sidelines and likely needed his first start off the bench, which also came at two turns. He had an outside draw that day and Nik Juarez went on the aggressive, putting him on the lead. He set a moderate pace and opened up with confidence. He’s drawn closer to the rail today and speed has been doing better at this meet, especially at the beginning of the racing week. Repeating his last effort is certainly not out of the question. Hess (#4) is the morning line favorite, and there are things to like. His last two races last season were at two turns and they were his two best tries. He’s making his third start off the layoff today after a pair of sprint races to start off this season. After winning in his debut, he hasn’t really progressed as much as I think his connections would have hoped he would. He makes sense, but 9-5 (ML) is too light for me in this spot. He’s going to be more of a backup for me at that price. If his odds start floating up around 3-1 or better, I’d be more inclined to get involved. 

Race 5: 

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $15K N2L claiming race. There are several runners in this race that keep running the same race, time and time again. Then you have two runners that both ran big figures to break their maidens, but yet to be able to replicate that effort. New Woman (#6) and End of Innocence (#7) both put up mid 70’s Beyer Figures when winning in gate to wire fashion in $30K maiden claiming races last spring. Since then, they are a combined 0-6. My concern for both of these fillies in this race is that both of their maiden wins came in races where they were on an uncontested lead. The presence of Chipotle Pepper (#9), slotted to the outside, is going to make that task a lot more complicated. I think that is going to be a formula to make Chiquita Reina (#1A) a major player in this race. She finished less than a length behind Chipotle Pepper in a similar spot last time out. I think Chipotle Pepper is more likely to take more pace pressure than she did in that race, especially considering that Haran is also scheduled to send out Texas Hottie (#1), She has some early speed too, and all of that should set the table for a horse like Chiquita Reina, who should be able to find a comfortable spot in the middle of the pack early on. She broke her maiden already at this meet and she’s been fairly consistent in her first two tries against winners. I think she’s a very good fit with this group today. Up On the Edge (#3) gets some class relief after several dull starts in a row. She broke her maiden against a weak field of $20K maiden claimers at Churchill in June. She was claimed for $20K and came back with a strong effort to just miss with $20K N2L claimers in July at Ellis. Her last five tries have come against better company, and she’s failed to be a factor in any of those. She’s proven that she can compete at lower levels, so a reversal in form could be predicted. I don’t love the price (5-2 ML), but I do like the fit. New Woman is the pace horse that I will use as a backup. If some of the other speed does defect, I could see myself taking a more aggressive approach with her. She was in way over her head in her last start and she caught a muddy course two back. She ran her best race in her third start off the layoff in March when breaking her maiden at the Fair Grounds. While I think the pace dynamics are going to be a real challenge for her, I do think she’s going to run a better race. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 begins with $10K claiming race restricted to runners that have not won twice since January 1st, 2024. Allo Enry (#6), Khozy My Boy (#8), and Go Cats (#11) were multiple winners in 2024, but most of those wins came while running with a $7,500 claiming tag or less, thus making them eligible for this condition. That does feel meaningful in a race where the majority of the field hasn’t seen the Winner’s Circle since 2023. Khozy My Boy won three times last year, including a pair of wins in his last two starts in 2024. His two efforts at this meet were less than stellar though, thus explaining his 10-1 morning line figure. He was claimed two back in open $10K company where he drew the outside post and had a tough trip against a better group. He was in over his head last out when facing a $10K starter allowance field. He gets significant class relief while making his second start for his new barn. He has two wins in his career on this course and I think he’s a good fit with this group today and he’s the one that I think is the most interesting from that trio. Man On the Moon (#3) is an interesting price play in this race. He’s needed a few starts to find his best stride since coming back from a five month break. He was at his best in 2024 when running two turns on a fast course. While he’s never won a race here, he was close on separate occasions last year. He seems to be trending in the right direction, so at long odds, I could be willing to take a chance with him. Feathers Road (#2) just missed with beaten $10K claimers here 11 days ago. He led most of the way until getting passed late in the stretch. He fought back, but was a nose short. He has tactical speed, but he doesn’t necessarily need the lead. He doesn’t win a ton though, going 2-30 in his career up to this point. I don’t love him as the favorite, but like some of the other shorter prices on this card that could be vulnerable, I do think he fits well with this group.

Race 7:

This is a $30K starter allowance race going 1 1/16 miles, open to any horse that has at least one start for a $30K claiming tag or less since 2022. Huge Bigly (#5) ran huge bigly last out when going 1 3/16 miles at this level. After losing in his first five starts at Oaklawn, he’s grown to love this course, winning in his last four starts here. However, despite battling with Mandolin Wind (#1), the pace was fairly moderate that day and this talented gelding is more effective at distances that are a tad bit longer than this race. I see him as a candidate to bounce a little off his last race, so I’m going to look for better value elsewhere. I liked Auto Glide (#7) a lot at this level in his last start, however, there were several defections in that race which drastically changed the pace scenario. Mandolin Wind got the jump on him after pressing a slow tempo in a small field. The bigger field should ensure a more honest tempo for his second start of the meet. If he’s close to his summer form today, I think he gets the job done. Mandolin Wind came within a length of the favorite and beat my top pick by a neck last out. This is an improving four year old that certainly fits at this level of competition. The bigger field and the rail draw might work against him, but he does represent decent value, at least on the morning line. He’ll likely be pressing the pace that I thin Empire Builder (#3) will be setting. He drew an outside post in a tough allowance race in the mud where they went fast early. The outer lanes weren’t very good that day either. His game is being on the lead and when he’s able to run freely, he has proven he can be a tough cat to catch. He’s making only his 5th start since July of 2023, and we haven’t seen him be as explosive as he was in the spring of that year. However, he was a gate to wire winner in N1X allowance company here on Opening Day. If speed is doing well, he’s definitely an upgrade for me in this race. 

Race 8: 

The last chance for a rolling Pick-3 wager begins with an optional $75K maiden claiming race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. Horses that were sold for $65K or less or RNA at their latest auction are eligible to run without the $75K claiming tag. I was high on La Houligan (#9) in an open maiden special weight race on the Southwest undercard three weeks ago. He was beaten by a Brad Cox second time starter, Rapture, that won for fun at 4-5. This War of Will colt was caught wide going into the first turn and had trouble settling in between rivals. When they picked up the tempo turning for home, he was unable keep pace with the top runners in that race. I thought he ran very well two starts back, coming with a strong six wide bid to get up for second after blowing the break. There’s no one that appears to be close to the level of Rapture in this race. He still has to overcome a wide draw, but he’ll get the services of the leading rider, Cristian Torres. I think we’ll see a better effort from this one today while getting a decent dose of class relief. If the morning line odds structure holds true, I like La Houligan a decent amount in this race. He’s listed as the 5th choice in the wagering, starting at 10-1 on the morning line. I’m okay if that number comes down a bit, maybe as low as 6-1. I think the three shorter prices in this race are all valid options. Tom Cat Tuesday (#6) was second at this level in his last race. He rebounded nicely after blowing the break two starts back. Authentic Gallop was the winner of that race. He came back to win an allowance race here against Landing Craft, who was the one who beat him last out. I think he has a slight edge over the favorite, Lured Away (#5) from a pace perspective. That one is live though based off a very nice effort at this level two back. He struggled last out as the favorite at the Fair Grounds, perhaps bouncing a bit off a big time effort in the mud here in December. He runs for Ken McPeek, who also sends out Sole Lute (#8), who debuted last month in New Orleans, finishing second in a race at a similar condition that was taken off the turf. He finished second, beaten four lengths in that race, suggesting that he could move forward today. It’s hard to gauge how deep that last field was, so I would proceed with a little caution, however, he’s another one that is not without a chance here. This trio will all start on the B line for me, but depending on how they are played and if one of them might be overlooked, I would be willing to consider upgrading.

Race 9:

A compact field of six has been assembled for the featured, six furlong allowance race this afternoon. I suspect Ryvit (#2) and Glengarry (#3) are going to hook up in the early stages of this race. Ryvit is not necessarily a committed front-runner that needs the lead all the time, however, he’s been on the lead in the first or second call in five of his last six dirt races. Glengarry on the other hand, seems to need to be on the front end. He’s making his third start off the layoff today, so I do think we’re going to see him run his A game. He won his first three career starts before just missing in the Remington Springboard Mile. He came back in April and was ultra-impressive when winning the Lafayette Stakes at Keeneland, however he went back to the sidelines again and didn’t return until November, when he showed up in the Steel Valley Sprint at Mahoning Valley in Ohio. He ran poorly that day, but he did show improvement when catching a muddy track at the end of December when he made his local debut. He’ll make his first start of 2025 today and his first start against older foes. If Keith Asmussen and Ryvit go with him early on, which I think might be their best chance, I think that sets the table for Run Classic (#5) to sit the sweet stalking trip. He couldn’t keep pace with Banishing and Tejano Twist last time out, both of whom came back to win stakes races here. His last four North American starts at this distance have all been respectable, and most of those efforts are likely good enough to win this race. I think his post allows him to stalk the leaders while keeping Durante (#1) and/or Sir Wellington (#4) in behind runners. I think his experience will help him finish stronger than Glengarry in this race. 

Race 10:

The afternoon ends with a state bred N1X allowance race for fillies and mares sprint six furlongs. I’m not sold on the favorite, No Coincidences (#5) in this spot. Instead, I’ll try the three year old filly, Stephanie Starfish (#4) to repeat in her second career start. She was excellent when winning on debut against an overmatched field of eight other three year old maiden fillies. She had tipped her ability in the morning when firing a noticeable 47:4 work in the morning, two weeks before that race. Her last work wasn’t as sharp, but she had the race in between, so I wouldn’t suspect that it was more about fitness and maintenance. I think she’s good enough to beat this group. Q’s Your Mama (#13) needs a defection to participate, but I do see her as dangerous while trying to win her 3rd straight start. After a decent debut last season, she struggled in her next two starts, both of which came against state bred maiden special weight types. She dropped into maiden claiming ranks and scored before going to the sidelines until December. She returned to score in a N2L claiming race for Arky breds, where she was able to run with the waiver. Despite climbing the class ladder, she feels like a horse that is starting to figure things out. The rail is not ideal, but I do see this as a good spot for Sthenic (#1), who is also moving up in class. Staying healthy has been a struggle for her, but this will be her third straight start without a large gap of time in her form lines. She finished 5th last time, beaten only two lengths by some of these runners. Her last start looked more like the horse that she was in her first two starts back in 2023. On deeper tickets, Caliente Star (#9) feels like a live longshot. A lot of the things that could be said about Stephanie Starfish could also be said about her. She was very impressive when winning on debut at the end of her two year old season. She showed guts and fortitude while closing along the rail after some traffic woes. She faced then two year olds that day and is now facing three year olds and up, so this is definitely a staunch rise in class. However, if she can build off her debut, she could be a good one. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 53/260 (20.4%, $507.40, $1.95 ROI)

February 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 7/48 (14.6%, $48.40, $1.01 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)