Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 2/15/25 – By Eric Solomon

As of now, this card is scheduled to go off as planned, however, training has already been cancelled due to heavy rains and potential flash flooding. I’m handicapping for a sloppy course this afternoon. The featured race today is the Dixie Belle Stakes for three year old fillies, sprinting six furlongs. First post is scheduled for 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will start the afternoon in an optional $75K maiden claiming race. Horses that were sold for less than $75K or were RNA in their last auction are eligible to run without the tag. These races are typically only offered to two and three year olds only, so allowing the older horses to run in an interesting wrinkle to this condition. Joe Offolter hasn’t had a starter at this meet, but I think he’s likes this condition for Andrea Diane (#6), who has been working well over at Will Rogers Downs in preparation for her first start since June. She ran here last year in her career debut and she finished a respectable 4th in an open maiden special weight race. This barn has done well with runners off the bench, so I think there’s a good chance that she could run a better race today than she did in her debut. I think she has a big chance in this race, assuming that she can handle a sloppy course. Cocktail Humor (#4) would be the backup for me in this race. She missed the break in her debut on a muddy course, but rushed up into contention while racing wide. She came up empty last out on a fast track when she found herself in some traffic. Richard Eramia gets off of her as he now rides the top pick. She paired her first two Beyer Figures and her Tomlinson Figure is the best in the group. I could see her taking a step forward in her third career start.

Race 2: 

The Early Pick-4 begins with a $35K-$30K N3L claiming race going six furlongs. The first two starts of the meet for Easy Action (#6) have not been encouraging. However, those races came against significantly better opposition. He’s taking a deep drop in class for his third start off the layoff. He is a runner that moves up on a wet track, so this feels like the kind of spot where he could turn things around. He ran well in two of his three races here in 2024.  King Anthony (#8) is another longer priced option that is intriguing in this race. He was a little flat when he finishing 8th, beaten just under five lengths at this level last month. He was making his first start since August that day, so there’s reason to believe that he could improve in this spot. He was a two-time winner at Hawthorne this summer and if he can find that form today, he’s going to be tough in this race. I’ll backup with favorite, Mischievous M (#5). I don’t love seeing him entered with a tag, especially since he’s eligible to run  at the N1X level. His last two starts have been sharp though. His race two back was his best finish on an off track, but I’m not completely convinced that he wants this kind footing. He’ll be battling for the lead, which is often an asset when they seal the track here. I have some mixed feelings, so while 9-5 isn’t really enticing, I do see him as a horse that I want to have some coverage with in the multi-race wagers. 

Race 3:

This race is an optional $62,500 claiming/$62,500 starter allowance race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. If a horse has started for a claiming tag of $62,500 or less, they are eligible to run without the claiming tag. There’s very little speed signed for this two turn contest, which leads me to making Rock Solo (#7) my top pick. Although he’s the second choice on the morning line, I suspect he’s going to be favored in this race. While I rarely settle on a short price when a horse is trying something new for the first time, he did run two credible races when going a one turn mile at Churchill. He was forward in both of those races, but when he last ran at this level, the race was at six furlongs on a muddy course. Being closer to the rail and near the lead was a positive, but he wasn’t quite quick enough to keep up with a 21:4 opening quarter. He was a wide 5th that day, but didn’t really have an impact on that race. I see this as a softer field today, and I do think the added distance is going to be a positive for him. Lasix gets added for the first time for a barn that has been heating up here over the last month. Fast Joker (#4) ran a solid race in the mud here two back at long odds when facing a stronger field. He met a tougher bunch in another allowance race last month and was no match for Brodeur, who is a promising three year old that has a pair of wins already at this meet. If he can run back to his effort two back, he’s going to be tough to deal with in this race. In the even that the added distance is too much for the top pick, he’d be the most logical backup for me. 

Race 4:

An overflow field of 14 has been assembled for this $12,500 maiden claiming race at six furlongs. You’ll see that Arkansas bred runners are listed to run with a $20K tag. While the shorter priced runners in this race are all flawed, the trio that I’m using on the A line feels better equipped to win this race than any of the longer priced runners. I landed on Zoom (#5) taking a deep dive for Brad Cox. He was a $500K purchase that ran okay on his debut at Fair Grounds. I was concerned when he was entered for a $50K tag last out and thought he was worth playing against at even money. He showed brief speed before fading badly and was a voided claim that day. He plummets to the bottom level here while getting the services of Cristian Torres. This is a horse that I’d typically play against in this spot, but his best asset is his speed and I suspect that’s going to be a good asset to have on this course today. His Tomlinson Figure is the best of the bunch, so he may prove to be too tough to catch. Lord Diamond (#12) is another horse that I typically play against in races like this. He has essentially run the same speed figure in his last five starts. While making his 10th career start, he’s moving into professional maiden territory. He is versatile however, running on all three types of surfaces in those last few races. He dropped to this level last out and was claimed by Matt Williams, who has good numbers first off the claim. Like the top pick, his Tomlinson number suggests he could be one to upgrade on a wet track as well. Cat Storm (#8) hasn’t been seen on the track since August of 2023. He was a vet scratch three times after that, including twice this summer at Lone Star. They went back to the drawing board with this Classic Empire colt, who was showing some progress before being sidelined. He has been working well for McPeek, who takes over the training duties. He feels like a wildcard in this race, so I’ll be including him as well. 

Race 5: 

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this N1X allowance race. 20 runners filled the entry box, so the racing office split this race into two divisions, with the second one being carded as the 8th race today. Carrara (#4) had a two race winning streak snapped at this level last out went she finished 5th, beaten 7 ½ lengths in the mud. To win this race, she’s likely going to have to make up seven lengths on Perfect Shot (#8), who gave up the lead late that day. I do think this four year old filly is a candidate to move forward in this race though. She drew post 11 that day and settled farther off than pace than usual to avoid going four or five wide into the turn. She was three wide at the start, but was able to work her way over to the rail. She was behind a wall of horses and left herself too much work to do in the one mile race with the short stretch here. She makes her third start off the layoff today, so between the rise in class and the tougher trip, she could have bounced a bit from a strong winning effort with $80K N2L claimers two starts back. I see her as a horse that could be a bit under the radar in this race. To play her, I will need to the odds disparity between her and Perfect Shot (6-1 vs. 5-2 on the ML) to stay the same or widen a little bit. Perfect Shot ran too well to lose in that race last month on a muddy track. She was a decent third behind Tarifa in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra last February before going to the sidelines for a little more than nine months. She paired her Beyer Figures for her first two starts  off the layoff. She feels like a horse that has a big chance in this race, but I do want to proceed with a little bit of caution. I do feel like she should have won last out, and there’s no shame in losing to In Just My Heels, who got a brilliant ride that day and came back to beat tougher last time out. Perhaps Erik Asmussen could have timed his ride a little better, but this has been a bit of a theme for this young rider riding at this meet against a strong colony of jockeys. He’s definitely improving, but he’s no longer an apprentice and I get nervous using him on short prices. Standoutsensation (#2) and Pretty Layla (#10) are both seemingly need the lead horses. Standoutsensation has the rail and should have the easier path to setting the pace. Tyler Bacon will likely be sending Pretty Layla hard from the 10 hole in order to compete or try to take the lead. That filly is stretching out to two turns on the dirt for the first time. After some competitive efforts in sprints of late, I do see her as a candidate to move forward at two turns. Standoutsensation has three straight runner-up finishes. She didn’t make the lead last out when going nine furlongs and the pacesetter blew her away in the stretch. I expect that Torres will be unwilling to concede the lead. If speed if going well today, these two might be able to run away with this race and if one were to defect, I’d definitely think about moving the other up to the A line. I think both fillies are nice, and while I worry that they could cancel each other out, I’ll be covering my bases with both.

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $40K-$35K N3L claiming race for four year olds and up, going one mile. This is a tricky race because many of these horses often run the same races, and many of them are solid efforts, just not winning efforts. As a result, I’ll take a stab on a big price in this race and make Rebellious (#2) my top pick. He was a winner on a muddy course here two starts back, clearing the N2L condition in the first start of the meet and his second try on a traditional dirt course. He broke a little awkwardly and was four wide throughout the entire first turn, never really getting to settle into a spot, while also getting shuffled back to last place. Ramon Vazquez had him moving up somewhat, but he wasn’t gaining on the leaders there. He was claimed by Cipriano Contreras, who has good numbers first off the claim. It’s not a great sign that his nephew, Emmanuel Esquivel, is riding Just Ask Watts (#1), but that could have been a prior commitment. He’ll need to move forward, but the recipe should be there for him to do so, assuming he’s good enough. Double Barrel (#3) has solid races on all three surfaces as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He’s a Gun Runner homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow, but he failed to take that next step forward. He would be eligible to run at the N1X level here, but I’m not sure he’s good enough to run at that condition here. He makes his third start off the layoff and has enough tactical speed to be on or near the lead. There are three runners on the outside that seem to be in contention for setting the pace, and I’m not sold on any of them, especially on a wet track. If he can handle a little mud to the face, I think he’ll be in a good spot here. Bolt at Midnight (#6) is one of those three runners slated to vie for the early lead, and off that trio, he’s likely the best. He’s moving up in class and will likely get a sloppy course for the first time in his career. This is probably the right level of competition for him and if we’re seeing front end speed carry, especially in the inside lanes, I feel like I need to backup with him, instead of taking a dedicated stand against him.

Race 7:

The Late Pick-4 begins with an interesting conditioned allowance race for four year olds and up going nine furlongs. To be eligible for this race, a horse must have either never won four times or they cannot have won more than $35K twice in their career, other than maiden, claiming, or starter allowance company. Magic Tap (#2) makes his 2025 debut for Steve Asmussen, and he figures to be tough with this group. He beat some of these runners last year in a N3L allowance when making his first start off the layoff. He has nine career starts in two turn races and all of them have fallen  in the 92-96 Beyer range. He ran a 93 here off the layoff last time out and he ran a 94 Beyer when racing in a sea of slop in the 2023 PA Derby. I expect similar conditions today when he’s making his first start since a 5th place finish in the Oaklawn Handicap. He usually doesn’t take steps forward when facing better competition, but he also runs well enough to win when he competes in allowance company. I think he makes the most sense in this spot. Confidence Game (#7) is a live longshot for Keith Desormeaux, hoping to win for the first time since catching a sloppy course in the Rebel Stakes at 19-1 in February of 2023. They’ve tried him in a variety of situations since then where he hasn’t been great. This will be his first try on a sloppy course since that Grade 2 score. His dam is a half to Zenyatta. He’s making his third start off the layoff today, and his last race at the Fair Grounds showed a forward move. He’s cross-entered in a race at Turfway tonight, but I think he’s worth considering if he shows up here. Speed Bias (#9) was 2 ½ lengths behind Magic Tap in allowance company here last January. Prior to that effort, he finished second in the Tinsel Stakes at this distance here in the mud. He hasn’t run a race that strong in his six tries since then, but those have come on fast tracks. He is worth thinking about when catching an off track, but it’s hard for me to take him over the favorite, when breaking from a tougher post and acknowledging that he beat this one on the square two times already. 

Race 8: 

The second division of the N1X allowance for fillies and mares also drew a field of ten. On paper, this feels like the weaker of the two heats. Since breaking her maiden in the Grade 3 Honeybee last out, Lemon Muffin (#4) has yet to return to the Winner’s Circle. Since then, she’s earned some minor awards at this level, but there hasn’t been a lot of forward momentum for this filly. She’s been well-supported at the windows in her first three starts at this meet, but she’s burned money each time, never looking like a winner in any of those three races. Despite the soft field, she’s not for me in this race, especially at short odds. When talking about the 5th race, which was the first division of this race, I referenced a one mile race in the mud at this level on 1/5. My two A line plays in the 5th both came out of that race, and I’m going with the 4th place finisher from that race, Simply Enchanting (#7) as my top pick here. She was four wide on both turns in that race. The muddy course was tiring and yielding slower times, so the pace battle that day was legitimate. She got tired, but kept fighting to finish 4th. In Just My Heels came back to clear the N2X condition in her next start so I think the lower figures that came out of that race might be a little misleading. That was this filly’s first try on an off track and her first start in three months. While her best figures have come in one turn races so far, I see her as a candidate to move forward in this race. Crazy Cami (#8) was third in that same race two starts back. She ran back at this level two weeks ago where she didn’t break particularly well. She hit the front but could not hold off Claret Beret. She’s a consistent runner that can handle an off track. Another wide draw is probably not ideal, but she beat the top pick on the square two back. On deeper tickets On deeper tickets, Late to the Game (#1) feels like a horse that could be a live longshot in this race. She broke her maiden in her second career start, sprinting six furlongs here last month. She’s sired by Competitive Edge, who was sired by Super Saver, who won the Derby in the mud back in 2010. Her dam sire is A.P. Indy, who has produced several runners that have flourished on off tracks. She stretches out to two turns for her third career start, and while she’ll need to move forward, she’s well-positioned to do so here. 

Race 9, The $150K Dixie Belle Stakes:

The featured race on the card today is this six furlong sprint for three year old fillies. I think You’ll Be Back (#7) looms large in this race. She tried two turns in the Years End Stakes at the end of December and she ran well, despite having a more sprint oriented pedigree. I like the move to bring her back to a sprint race because she looked great two back when breaking her maiden at the Fair Grounds. She handled a muddy course well last out, which tells me that the course condition shouldn’t be an issue today.There is a lot of speed signed on which favors G W’s Girl (#6), who is looking to win another stakes trophy at this meet. She was very good in the Mockingbird last month after two good turf races to start her career. She beat an odds on favorite in that race. Her Tomlinson Figure is strong, so there’s reason to believe that she can run back to that race on a sloppy course. However, I do worry that she may bounce off that career top last out. Innocence (#3) is a live longshot in this race for Steve Asmussen. She won a small stakes race at Sunland last month, drawing off to win by five lengths. She has the best Tomlinson Figure in the field, so catching a sloppy track might be ideal for her. I do think she has enough speed to go with some of the front-runners in this race. 

Race 10:

The day ends with a state bred N1X allowance sprint, going six furlongs. This is a fairly strong field for this condition, so I do think there are many ways to go. If horses are able to close down the outside on this course, Gettinby (#12) is very interesting. There are several runners in this race that are the best strongest finishers. He was strong when making his first start off the meet and his second career start for Randy Morse. His Beyer figure in the slop on debut against much better competition at Churchill was solid, so it’s no surprise that he was an easy winner at 1-5 in state bred maiden allowance company last out. This is a class test, but he fired a big work last week in preparation for this start. I think he’s a big player in this race.  Brahms Image (#2) likes an off track and he’s been knocking on the door at this level. He’s paired his first two Beyers of the season and now is set to make his third start off the layoff. While he’s been yielding the lead late, inside speed has fared well on sealed tracks at this meet. Strato (#10) makes his first start since May for Ron Moquett. Over the last year, this barn has been more proficient with having runners ready to run well off the bench. He was consistently improving last year and he can also handle an off track. With other speed signed on, he’s more of a deeper tickets play for me because of his draw. I’ll also throw in Zippy Mark (#7) in this race. He’s the second horse on the card owned by John Holleman that is making his first start off the layoff while also making their first start since moving into Ken McPeek’s barn. He was a winner on debut last year on a sloppy course in a $30K maiden claiming race. The works are solid as he gets a class test right away. If Cat Storm runs well in the 4th (the other Holleman/McPeek/Leparoux runner off the layoff), I’d consider upgrading him in this spot.

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 55/270 (20.4%, $519.00, $1.92 ROI)

February 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 9/58 (15.5%, $60.00, $1.02 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)