It wasn’t too long ago that President’s Day meant it was time for the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. However, like many tracks, Oaklawn adjusted their Derby Prep schedule to better suit the way that today’s racehorse is campaigned. As a result, the Southwest is earlier on the calendar and the Rebel is now run at the end of February. Oaklawn has carded a stakes race for three year olds on this card, running the $150K Ozark Stakes at six furlongs. First post is scheduled for 12:30 (CT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 2 | 2,7 | 9 | DBL, PK5 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2,7 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 6,10 | 5 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 3,5 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1,2,7 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 6 | 6 | 6 | 12 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 7 | 10 | 10 | 4,11 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 8 | 9 | 2,8,9 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 9 | 3 | 3,6 | 7 | DBL | |
| 10 | 1 | 1,8 | 7,9 |
Race 1:
A field of 10 fillies and mares are set to go one mile in the Monday opener. Arkansas breds will be seen running with a $20K claiming tag in this spot. This feels like a race where many could be struggling to finish. I’ll try Our Special Gift (#2) as the top pick in this spot. She was moving well late after breaking at the back of the pack when facing state bred $12,500 maiden claimers here earlier in the month. She’s been third in both starts at this meet and she’ll try two turns once again. She met a runaway duo in a small field in her only other try in a route at Prairie Meadows back in September. I do think the longer race suits her better than some of her rivals in this spot. Actin’ Up (#7) is the runner getting the most class relief. She was wide on a muddy track last out when facing state bred maiden special weight. Prior to that her races at Remington in open maiden special weight company would likely make her competitive with this group. The distance is a question mark, but I’m willing to forgive her last try. On deeper tickets, I’ll try She’s a Reader (#9). Her best two races came at two turns on the turf, one at Lone Star and the other at Remington. She hasn’t been awful on the dirt and she’s never routed on this surface. Improvement in this spot is certainly out of the question.
Race 2:
Open $20K claimers will go one mile in this contest which starts the Early Pick-4. Vittorio (#7) is going to be tough to beat in this spot for Steve Asmussen. He’s coming off a third place finish in $30K starter allowance company here in his most recent try. He was a winner three back at Churchill when he dropped into a $30K beaten claiming race at Churchill. Prior to starting here, that was the lowest tag that this one has competed with. He’s at his best on the front end though and front-runners were struggling yesterday. He’s an A play for me in this spot, but I’m going to try Hayes Strike (#2) as the top pick in this race. He gets himself into trouble when he settles too far off the early lead. He can’t do that today, especially when going one mile. However, an inside draw should keep him in striking distance when they start to accelerate on the turn. He was a winner when running for a $40K tag at Churchill two back. That was the lowest level of competition he was up against. He was claimed that day, and while I’m not crazy about him running for the $20K tag today, I think he’ll be better suited to the fast course as opposed to the muddy track he caught last time.
Race 3:
Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this $25K-$20K maiden claiming race. Wowsers (#10) was claimed for $50K by Jonas Gibson in November at Churchill. She faced a strong maiden special weight field last month and couldn’t keep pace. She’s been knocking on the door and working well for a high percentage barn that hasn’t had a huge footprint at this meet thus far. I don’t love the drop in class, but I do think the class relief is meaningful and I like her fit with this group. What’s Her Number (#6) just missed with $30K maiden claimers here two starts ago. Joe Sharp kept her in Kentucky, but she had no interest in competing on the synthetic at Turfway. Most of her best efforts have come on this course. H M Legacy (#5) is a deeper tickets play for me in this race. This feels like the kind of horse that her trainer doesn’t know what she’s going to do best. She’s tried five maiden special weight races, three on turf and two on the dirt. She hasn’t been nearly as good in her last three tries as she was in her first two. She was good enough in her debut at six furlongs at Delaware to think that maybe she could compete at this level in a dirt sprint.
Race 4:
$20K N2L claimers will go six furlongs here. I’m going to roll the dice with Ceepeegee (#4) in this race. Ron Moquett is back as his trainer and he’s taking a big drop in class. His only career win came on the turf, but he wasn’t terrible in two starts here last season against much better company. He struggled in the spring in Kentucky and went to the sidelines before resurfacing in a turf sprint at the Fair Grounds in N1X allowance company. He’s facing several runners that often come close at this level, but seem to have issues breaking through. There’s more upside here than with most of the others. More Than Five (#3) is one of those runners that keeps getting close. He’s made three starts at this meet and he’s finished in the money in each of them. He only has one win in 18 career tries, so it’s hard to get too excited about his prospects. However, he’s in good form and his running style fits the way the track was playing yesterday. Holus Bolus (#5) makes his second start of the year while dropping in class. He was overmatched in a state bred N1X allowance race when making his first start since July. Isaac Castillo was forced to be aggressive from him when he broke from post 12. He drew even with the leaders before backing up late. Expect him to be more fit in this spot. He was very competitive at this level last season.
Race 5:
An overflow field of 14 has been entered in this $12,500 beaten claiming race going six furlongs. I’m going to try Permafrost (#2) as a longshot chance in this race. He was sharp here three back, just missing when facing a similar group. He backed out of a tight spot two back where he was claimed. He completely misfired when making his first start off the claim for Brad Cox last time out. He appears to have been privately purchased by Jordan Racing after that race last month. Todd Jordan has strong numbers with new runners, so I can wager on the prospects of a rebound today. Espionage (#1) will have to deal with the rail in a race where several could be making a case for the early lead. I liked him a lot in his last race where he was second before his number was taken down and he was placed 5th. He’s not the most consistent runner, but he does like racing here. Martini Blu (#7) has shown the ability to come from behind and that might be the kind of trip that could win this race. He’s making his third start off the layoff today after a pair of solid efforts to start the meet. He’s one of the more consistent runners in this field where several lack that gene.
Race 6:
Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this maiden special weight contest. I think this is a good spot for Calamity (#6) to rebound. She was 4th while under heavy encouragement here last out. She was much better two back at the Fair Grounds at this level in a race taken off the turf. Brad Cox adds blinkers today and keeps her in protected company, which tells me that she’s doing well enough in the morning to stay at this level instead of dropping in for a tag. Cox had a winner here yesterday and is due to go on a little bit of a run after a rough meet here so far. For a maiden special weight race, this is not the deepest field. Clearly the runner with the most upside in this spot is Vegas Condo (#12), hence the 3-1 morning line price. She’s been working well, but she was off from March to November, and then hasn’t been on the track since. She’s also routing for the first time while drawing a miserable post. She would really have to be much the best to win this race, but the competition is soft enough for me to at least consider her as a deeper saver.
Race 7:
The Late Pick-4 begins with a N1X allowance contest going one mile. I like Talklessworkmore (#10) a lot in this race. He’s a seven year old gelding, so it’s debatable how much upside he has. Most of his work has come on the turf, but he’s never finished off the board in four career tries on the dirt. He broke a bit slow in his last start, but he was flying late to get up for third at this level. He makes his second start off the layoff and his second start for Chris Hartman. There should be some pace with some of the top contenders likely going for the front end. Look for him to get rolling late in this one. Gewurztraminer (#4) makes his third start off the layoff. He’s faced some sharp fields in two starts at this level and he’s come up short in the final furlong. The shorter stretch He’s definitely going to be a part of the pace picture here, but I do think he’s worth including from a class perspective. Silver Heist (#11) is another runner to think about as a backup play in this race. He attended a moderate pace and was unable to keep pace with Baddest Good Boy, who could be thinking about a stakes race in the near future. While the 11 hole can be tricky in two turn races, I think getting off the rail will be helpful for him.
Race 8:
$35K-$30K claimers will sprint six furlongs in this race. Refuah (#9) moves up the class ladder after a fast closing win with $35K-$30K N3L claimers here last month. That was his first local start after spending the better part of his career in New York. Closers had a decent amount of success yesterday and this is another race where there are several that want to be involved early on. Samurai Prince (#2) could be one of those horses, but he does have some versatility. He didn’t run particularly well in a starter allowance race last out, but prior to that contest, he had a nice string of races in a row. He has run well on this course in the past and I think he could rebound while dropping back to claiming company. Higher Standard (#8) makes his third start off the layoff today for William Cowans. He took the short end of a three horse photo at this level in his most recent start. Samurai Prince got his head down first in a dead heat that day. He’s never finished off the board in three local starts and he feels like a horse that could be right in the mix once again.
Race 9, The $150K Ozark Stakes:
Three year olds will sprint six furlongs in this stakes race. It’s already been a heck of a meet for Hola Joey (#3). I’ve sided with him for his first two wins at this meet and I’m not going to stop now. His late close in the slop when going five furlongs at Remington on debut caught my eye. He sat near the back of the pack and mowed down a decent maiden field at 9-1 on opening weekend. He came back to win a hard fought battle to clear the N1X allowance condition. I think there’s some cheap speed in this race from the morning line favorite, Innova (#9) among others. I think this modest Adios Charlie gelding can mow them down once again. Wildncrazynight (#6) ran a strong race in the Renaissance Stakes which came back very slow for a stakes race. He was making his first start since breaking his maiden at Delaware in October. His second career start was a strong race against a next out stakes winner in a Jersey bred maiden special weight race which was one of the strongest maiden races at the Monmouth meet this past summer. He had a sharp work in preparation for this race so I think he’ll be more fit for this contest. I Got Game (#7) figures to take money in this spot, but he’s more of a backup for me in this race. He finally broke though to clear the maiden special weight ranks in his 6th start here in December. He went to the Fair Grounds where he was a game second behind Innova in an off the turf N1X allowance race there at 5 ½ furlongs. At six furlongs, I think he has the edge over his rival, but if he’s a shorter price than the top two picks, I’m not really interested.
Race 10:
Arkansas bred fillies and mares will end the holiday card in a six furlong maiden special weight contest. Plinko Chip (#1) has improved in each of her three starts. She finished in the money in both starts at this level during this meet. She makes her third start off the layoff and her third start on the dirt. The rail isn’t ideal, but I think she’s the one to beat in this spot. Memory Maker (#80 ran well in her debut against straight three year olds at this level. She faces a field with a few older runners, but mostly three year old fillies here. I think her debut should prove to be educational and I’m expecting her to take a step forward in this race. We’ve seen first time starters with strong workouts run big races during this meet, so it;s hard to exclude Doubledaddy Issues (#9) in this race. Al Cates is capable of winning with a first time starter. I am a little concerned that he gives the reins to Kelsi Harr, who has yet to find the Winner’s Circle at this meet. She debuts as a four year old in a field where many of her rivals are three. I think I want a little better than her 6-1 morning line, but I also think she’s worth including on some tickets. The same could be said for My Sweet Angel (#7) she blew the break in the same race that Plinko Chip finished 3rd in last time. She came with a six wide bid before tiring late. Look for Ramon Vazquez to try to get her out of the gate smoother and have her in a better position in her second try,
2024-25 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 57/284 (20.1%, $529.00, $1.86 ROI)
February 2025 Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 11/72 (15.3%, $70.00, $0.99 ROI)
Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)
