There’s a nine race, Sunday afternoon card at Oaklawn getting under way at 12:30 (ET). If you’re planning on being on track, don’t be late because there are a few interesting horses in the maiden special weight race that kicks off the day. Reminder, the Thursday makeup card was shuffled to tomorrow because of heavy rains earlier in the week. We’ll have nine races on Monday and then racing only on Friday and Saturday next weekend. Oaklawn will opt to be dark on Super Bowl Sunday and race an extra day the following week on President’s Day.
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1,4 | DBL, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 7,11 | 12 | DBL, PK3, PK4 |
| 3 | 9 | 9 | 10,12 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 8 | 7,8 | 2,12 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 5 | 6 | 6 | 11 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK4 |
| 7 | 2 | 2,4 | 9, 10 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | DBL | |
| 9 | 11 | 11 | 4,10 |
Race 1:
Seven are entered in this maiden special weight race for three year olds and up, going one mile. I think all eyes are on Prime Power (#4), who ran a monster figure when finishing second to Gunmetal at the Fair Grounds on debut. Gunmetal ran third in the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream yesterday, while being used hard in a speed duel. Asmussen stretches this one out to the mile, which makes sense based on his pedigree. He’s taking on a few older horses, including his stablemate, Ambition (#1). Prime Power is clearly the one to beat and he looks like he could be any kind. However, he’s going to get hammered at the windows, while trying something new for the first time. He’s going to be an A line play for me, but in terms of win betting, I’ll hardly ever accept a short price on a horse trying something new. I’ll make Ambition the top pick, coming out of a 10 furlong race on synthetic at Turfway. He’s a half to Innovator, who broke his maiden at this distance during this meet. This colt is a four year old facing many three year olds and he’s making his third start off the layoff. While both Prime Power and Darrow (#5) figure to take the bulk of the wagering dollars, they both are stretching out in distance. This one is cutting back while moving to the dirt for the first time since his debut. Technically, he’ll be competing on a fast dirt track for the first time while going two turns on a traditional dirt course for the first time, so he is also doing something new. However, he’ls starting at 5-1 and if his odds float over that number, I think that represents enough value to take a shot with him.
Race 2:
State bred fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500 maiden claiming race. This race oversubscribed and was split into two divisions, with the second half going as the 4th race today. I think consistency matters at this level and the most consistent runner in this field is Queen Wilhelmina (#2). She’s making her third start off the layoff. She paired her two Beyers last year before going to the sidelines for seven months during the off-season here. She came back with two respectable efforts against better opposition this season. She drops in class after pairing those Beyers. I see her as a horse that is eligible to move forward in this spot and run her best effort yet. Tactical Empress (#7) might not have the same amount of upside, but she did finish in from of my top pick two starts ago. Queen Wilhelmina was a little better than her last time out though. Prior to her last two starts, her best efforts came on the turf, so I’m not sure how much of a step forward to expect from her, especially while running for a trainer that only had one winner from 54 starters in 2024. However, she does fit in this spot and is worth considering. Both My Julia (#11) and Smoke Show Girl (#12) have at least one race in their history that would likely win this race with relative ease. However, both are coming off inexplicably bad efforts over this course. My Julia is making her second start off the layoff today and she didn’t run well in the slop at first asking. A fast track may be the ticket for her, but this is a major drop in class, and I’m not sure that sends the best signals. I’ll proceed with caution with her. Smoke Show Girl ran well in the mud at first asking, but was a disaster on a fast track when facing better last out. She was making her first start off the claim in that spot, but I don’t love that’s already entered for a tag that is $7,500 than what she was claimed for. There are future opportunities for open $12,500 maiden claiming races where Arkansas breds can run for $20K, so entering in this spot feels a bit short-sighted. She’s a deeper saver for me, especially as the favorite.
Race 3:
A dozen Arkansas breds are entered in this $15K-$10K N1Y claiming race going six furlongs. This figures to be a contentious race where I think the top six or seven finishers will be within about five lengths of each other. Trip and upside are going to be things I’m looking for here and while I can’t guarantee what kind of a trip a horse is going to get, I do think there are positive signs from Chupapi Munyayo (#9). He has shown flashes of promise at times here, but he’s not the most consistent runner. He had a rough trip in his last start when making his first start for John Ortiz. He was claimed out of that spot by Melton Wilson, who is a good, under the radar kind of trainer. This one is making his third start off a layoff and should be able to sit in the second flight early on. I think he has the ability to run them down in the final furlong here. This feels like a now or never spot for Atta Party (#12), who is the second choice on the morning line and might be the favorite when they open the gates. He has good speed from his outside draw, so I do think he’s set up to run the race he wants to. He’s making his third start off a mini-layoff and his third start for Ingrid Mason. She hasn’t figured out what makes this one tick just yet, so the drop in class may be the answer. Table Money (#10) is another one to consider, and he should be prominent in the early stages of this one as well. He’s getting class relief after facing some stronger state bred foes in optional claiming/allowance races. He was a strong winner when running in lower level claiming races here last year. He’s won three times in 12 starts over this course and he’s another runner that could be overlooked in this race today.
Race 4:
The second division of the state bred $12,500 maiden claiming race is another tricky puzzle. I landed on Simple Dreams (#8) making her second career start for Ron Moquett. This is a barn that has been heating up after getting off to a slow start. This filly broke slowly on a muddy course and was trying to play catch up over a course that was not easy to do so. She gets class relief for her second try and should appreciate a fast course today. Our Special Gift (#7) is a gradually improving filly for Tammy Hornsby, who is quietly having a productive meet. She was third with open $20K maiden claimers, which is the same race that the top pick is coming out of. That race is listed as an open $20K maiden claiming race, but that is a bit deceptive. State bred fillies could run for the $20K tag, but open company was running for a $12,500 tag. Either way, this is a softer field and I think this filly can take another step forward in her second start off the layoff. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in a few first time starters in this race. Bolivia (#12) is another Melton Wilson horse that could be overlooked in the wagering. She’s been working at Louisiana Downs and she’ll be the second horse from this dam to make it to the track. Brody’s Cause is not a good first time out sire, winning with only 4% of his debut runners in dirt sprints. There’s a fairly large sample size as he’s sired 6 winners from 171 debut runners over the last five years. However, he’s sired nine horses that have debuted here. Two of those nine were winners and more specifically, both of those winners came in Arkansas bred company. Four of his seven non-winners faced open company in their debut. There might be some hidden value with this one, who is likely to go off at odds greater than her 20-1 morning line. I’ll also include Now Hear This (#2) for Steve Asmussen. She’s an Echo Town first time starter who was also based at Louisiana Downs. She worked over this course last week and runs for a barn that is heating up. Asmussen does not have great numbers with debut runners in maiden claiming races, however, this filly doesn’t have to be very good to win here.
Race 5:
Three year old fillies will go six furlongs in this $30K maiden claiming race. Geez Eloise (#6) feels like the one in this race. She cuts back to a sprint for Ken McPeek, while also adding Lasix for the first time. She wasn’t a fan of the Tapeta at Turfway, but she was effective in both of her one turn races at Churchill this year. She’s dropping in class and finds a field that feels a little light for this condition. I’ll use one of the firsters, Don’t Post It (#11), as the backup. She turned in her best career workout last week, so she appears to be trending in the right direction. She’s sired by Hard Spun out of a mare that produced a second time winner, Camp Daddy. She feels like the debut runner with the most upside.
Race 6:
The featured race of the day is an optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. It’s going to be hard for me to play against Tripolina (#5) in this race. She is stretching out after a good second place finish behind Haulin Ice at this level last time out. However, she clearly took to this course and she was second at this distance in the Grade 3 Mazarine Stakes on the Tapeta at Woodbine in November of 2023. She has shown a little more tactical speed in her two turn races, which should serve her well in this spot. I think she’s going to be very tough to beat in this spot. On deeper tickets, Merasol Sugar (#1) is a horse that I’ve been backing, but she’s struggled to put things all together. She wasn’t great in the same race the Tripolina is coming out of, but she was making her first start since July 5th that day. She is probably better going two turns, so I’m thinking she should be more fit for this spot. She looked good while tracking the leaders and rallying at Ellis two back, winning a N2L allowance race there. That is likely the kind of trip she’ll need here because I want to see her battling with Miss Hebrides (#7) for the early lead. This filly was sparkling when crushing a N2L allowance field here when going nine furlongs two weeks ago. This is a relatively quick turnaround after a career top effort, so I’m hesitant to take her at a short price. However, McPeek has been on a roll and if Leparoux can nurse her speed, she could be tough.
Race 7:
Arkansas bred fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this maiden special weight that starts the final Pick-3 wager of the afternoon. I’m going to try Beachya (#2) on top for Randy Morse. She has some win-early parts of her pedigree and she took some action at the windows when running at this level last month. She was away a bit slow and ended up in behind many horses. She was beaten by a runaway winner that day, but she was passing horses nicely in later stages of that one. I expect a better effort from her in this race. Very Cosmopolitan (#4) was the post time favorite when she ran in a race at this level at the end of December. She, too, had a bad start and was left with a little too much work to do. She’ll get Lasix for the first time in her second start off the layoff. There is some upside here as well. On deeper tickets, Plinko Chip (#10) ran well to be second in the same race that Very Cosmopolitan is coming out of. That was her first start off the layoff and her first on the dirt. Seven pound apprentice, Joseph Romero, gets the return call for McLean Robertson, who had his first winner of the meet on Friday. I think a lot of the money is going to come in on Miss Macy (#9) for John Ortiz. She is coming out of the same maiden race that Beachya debuted in, but she was ice cold on the board. She went to the front and held second that day. McKenna Anderson gets another chance on this runner who will likely be nowhere near those long odds. I expect her to try to go to the front once again, but expect there to be pressure. She’s more of backup for me in this spot.
Race 8:
This is a good N3L allowance sprint for three year olds and up, going six furlongs. While I think a lot of the wagering attention is going to go to Nasty Habit (#7) and Wendelssohn (#9), I think this is a great spot for This Is Uscar (#8). He scratched out of a tougher spot on Friday in favor of this race. He showed a lot of potential in his debut and he looked good when clearing the N1X condition at Churchill in May. He was second to Booth in a tough spot when making his first start off the layoff at Churchill two back. He was wide in his return to Oaklawn, when racing on a sealed course where the inner lanes were more favorable places to be. He still ran a credible race to be 6th that day. I think he sits the right trip and comes back with a career top effort in his third start off the bench. He’s my strongest opinion on this card, especially if he’s sitting there at 5-1 (ML). Wendelssohn is the backup play for me in this race, getting Lasix against after finishing second behind a runaway winner in the Byerly Turk Overnight Stakes last week. He ran a monster race here in December, but he’ll need to prove that he can run back to that race. This is a quick turnaround and while he might have a higher ceiling, I think the top pick is better spotted in this race. He’s the backup play for me here.
Race 9:
We’ll wrap up the day with an open $12,500 maiden claiming race where Arkansas bred horses are able to run with a $20K tag. I’m siding with Miyagi (#11) on the outside. I like the barn change after two dismal races on the Tapeta at Turfway. Prior to a year plus layoff, he took some money and ran credibly behind some horses that ran huge races on the dirt in maiden special weight company. It’s clear at this point in his career, he’s not those horses, but I’m willing to bet he’s better than those last two starts on a synthetic surface. Enigma Code (#4) is one to think about at a price on some deeper tickets. He ran okay to be 4th in a state bred $15K maiden claiming race in the mud two weeks ago. He is cross-entered tomorrow, however, that was the card that was supposed to be run on Thursday and he’s on the AE list in that spot. He re-entered here, telling me they wanted him to get a race in. I expect him to run here and I think he can improve off his last try. Gold Member (#10) is also worth a look on the class drop. He’s 0-7 in a field where some of the short priced runners are professional maidens. However, those runners have been lingering at this level, while he’s dropping out of tougher maiden races. Tyler Bacon gets the assignment today, which is a rider upgrade.
2024-25 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 49/222 (22.1%, $484.40, $2.18 ROI)
February 2025 Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 3/10 (30.0%, $25.40, $2.54 ROI)
Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)
