Monday racing is back at Oaklawn thanks to a winter storm that impacted the earlier in the week. This card was originally scheduled for Sunday, but they moved this card to today in order to run the full Rebel Card yesterday. There are two stakes races on this strong card, including the Dixie Belle, which was postponed after some heavy storms came through the area last weekend. First post this afternoon is set for 12:30 (CT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 5 | 1,5 | DBL, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 1,7,9 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6,7 | 2 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 5 | 6 | 4,6 | 2 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 6 | 7 | 7 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 7 | 10 | 6,10,11 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 8 | 10 | 1,10 | 5 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 9 | 4 | 4,7 | 3 | DBL | |
| 10 | 4 | 4,7 | 11 |
Race 1:
We’ll start things off with a $12,500-$10,000 claiming race for four year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. Mad Adam (#1) is the 7-5 morning line favorite and he’s going to be tough to beat. Four of his last five starts have been strong efforts that would likely be good enough to put him in the Winner’s Circle today. There’s not a lot of speed signed on with this seven horse field so Bejarano might wind up on the lead with this Super Saver gelding. He’s won races that way in the past and figures to be right in the mix. He’s an A line play, but I’m going to try a longshot and make Candy for Carmel (#5) the top pick for Trisha Duncan. It’s been some time since this one came home a winner, but I do see improvement in his last two starts. He drew tough post positions for his first two races at this meet. He was way out of it last time, but he passed several runners late to get into second place behind a runaway, class-dropping winner. He makes his third start off of a layoff and his third start for Duncan today. He’s better when he’s been able to stay closer to the leaders in the first half and with this smaller and a projected slow pace, he should get a more favorable trip. He’s sitting there at 12-1 on the morning line and if he’s close to that number, I’d be interested in using him.
Race 2:
Arkansas bred fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in a $12,500-$10,000 claiming race. War Music (#9) is 0-19 on this course, but she has a class edge over these runners today. Her form has been all over the place, but she has three wins since June, which no one else in this group can say. She took some money in her last two starts in state bred allowance company, but was well-beaten in both races. This is the right time to drop her in class and she faces an uninspiring group. She gets top billing for me in this spot. Chai Tea (#1) is another runner that doesn’t have a great track record on this course, winning only once in 20 career starts. She made her first start in six months when returning at this level at the beginning of the month. She drew the outside post and was caught six wide going into the turn. She flattened out late, finishing 6th, beaten just under four lengths by She’s Storming (#6). I’m not convinced that one can run back to that race today, so I’ll side against her. I expect Chai Tea to be more fit, while getting to run once more with the waiver. Lady Astrid (#7) is also making her second start off the layoff. She was a two-time winner at Canterbury Park over the summer, but she has struggled to replicate those efforts on this oval at times. If she moves forward, she’ll be right there. I don’t love the 7-2 morning line figure for her, but the alternatives aren’t very enticing.
Race 3:
A nine horse field is set to go 1 1/16 miles in this time restricted $20K claiming race. I’m going to try Sunrise Drive (#6) on top in this race. This son of Danza, who was an Arkansas Derby winner, made his first start on his career on dirt last month. He didn’t break cleanly and then had trouble at the back of the field when bending into the first turn. He finished with some interest to get into 4th though, suggesting to me that he run credible efforts on the traditional dirt. His synthetic efforts in Canada would make him competitive with these. He gets a rider upgrade for his second try over this track. I think he can improve enough to be a factor at this level today. Expensive Cut (#7) was given some extra time off after a dull effort on a wet track at Churchill in November. He returns while taking a significant drop in class. He was consistently solid in Kentucky prior to her last try and Randy Morse has good numbers with runners coming off the bench. He ran well to be second on this course last year with open $50K-$40K claimers. Polterer (#2) is looking to rebound after a bad race last time out. He wasn’t particularly sharp coming out of the gate and he never really was able to get involved in a time restricted $30K-$25K claiming race. He has 13 wins in 35 career starts, but only 7 other in the money finishes. He tends to be an all-or-nothing type of runner and has shown that he can rebound after running a dull race.
Race 4, The $145K Commodore Overnight Stakes:
This six furlong stakes race is for horses that have not won a stakes race other than a state bred contest. On paper, this looks like a showdown between Wendelssohn (#1) and Disco Ball (#3). Disco Ball is all about front end speed, and there’s not a ton of competition for the front end in this six horse field. He had a six race winning streak snapped last time out as he tired to finish third in a salty starter allowance race where he was sent off as the 3-5 post time favorite. At times, it’s been challenging to win on this oval when going gate to wire, especially on a fast track. However, I think Wendelssohn ran poorly two back when he tried to attend the early lead in a race that was dominated by Banishing. He fires his best effort when coming from off the pace. Wendelssohn has run two of the fastest six furlong times at this meet, with that dull effort sandwiched in the middle. He beat good allowance fields by 5 ½ and 3 ¼ lengths in his two local victories. I think Tyler Bacon figured out how he wants to be ridden, which makes him very dangerous in this spot. If speed looks good early on, I’ll upgrade Disco Ball, but Wendelssohn feels like the one to beat. .
Race 5:
$50K-$40K claimers will sprint six furlongs here. I’m siding with W W Scout’s Honor (#6) in this race. He was flat in the mud last time out when facing a good group of optional claiming/N2X allowance types. Invulnerable was the runner up in that race and he came back to run a strong second at that level yesterday. He cleared the N1X condition here two starts back and now he’ll get some class relief. He’s the speed of the speed in this race and I think Martin Garcia will be able to get him out of the gate and over the rail, which was a good place to be yesterday afternoon. This seven year old gelding has won 10 times in 28 career starts and he’s shown the ability to rebound from dull efforts in the past. Major Blue (#4) is another runner that could be overlooked in this race. Two starts ago, he was dead last in that same race that W W Scout’s Honor is coming out of. He rebounded to be a more competitive 5th at that level three weeks ago. Dropping in class feels like the right move with him at this point. He fits from a figures perspective. On deeper tickets, Willtorun (#2) moves up in class after getting back on track with beaten $30K claimers at the Fair Grounds in his most recent start. He had been off form for a little while, but he had a nice string of races going over the winter last year. Amoss’ runners have been live at this meet as he’s won with 8 of 43 starters and had 23 of 43 hit the board. I don’t like the price, but I think he can run back to his last race.
Race 6:
Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles in this optional $200K claiming/N1X allowance race. The California bred, R Heisman (#8) is the only runner that is running with the large claiming tag. This race starts with Big Boat (#7), who was a game second behind Sandman at this level in December. Sandman has run two big efforts here in Derby Points races since that allowance race. He missed a little time in January, not working at all that month, but he’s worked twice, including a nice five furlong bullet workout last week. He has a significant class edge over this field. Perhaps the horse best suited to challenging him is another Mark Casse horse. Bermuda Blitz (#1) is an improving three year old that broke through in an optional maiden claiming race last time out. He’s made considerable improvements since shipping here after the conclusion of the Churchill meet this fall. He aced his two turn test by running well at one mile at the beginning of the month. This is a bigger test and he’ll need to take another step forward. The price is likely is a little shorter than I’d like, but I’m having a tough time making a case for some of the longer prices in this race.
Race 7:
The Late Pick-4 starts with a maiden special weight contest for three year old fillies, going six furlongs. We saw Bob Baffert bring Cornucopian here to debut in a maiden special weight race for the boys at this distance yesterday and he ran the fastest six furlong time of the meet so far. Half of this 12 horse affair will be starting for the first time and many of those runners seem well-meant. Mendela (#10) is one of them that makes sense debuting in this race. She’s the third foal to race from the mare Jenda’s Agenda. She was a debut winner that won a stakes race in her third career start. She was foaled by the Grade 2 winning mare, Just Jenda and she foaled a debut winning filly, Just Cindy, who would win the Grade 3 Schuylerville in her next start. There is speed, precocity, and class up and down in her pedigree, so I’d be surprised if she didn’t run well. I didn’t hate the debut from Avery’s Mischief (#6) last time out. She missed the break and spotted the field several lengths coming out of the gate. She advanced along the inside before swinging widest of all. The inner part of the track was the better place to be and the dominating winner of that race came back to easily beat Texas breds in a stakes race at Sam Houston in her last start. She’s the first foal to race from the Grade 1 winning sprinter, Mia Mischief. I think we’ll see a better effort from her in this race. Ricardo Santana rode her on debut but Erik Asmussen picked up the mount today. Santana winds up riding the first time start, Lady of Silence (#11) for Norm Casse. She’s the first foal to run from the mare, Shockingly. She had some start and she closed from way out of it to just miss in a maiden special weight race. She’s been working well for a barn that has respectable numbers with firsters. Munnings is a strong debut sire with dirt sprinters.
Race 8:
A dozen fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance contest. While her best races have come on the synthetic, Marmalade Skye (#10) has improved off the David Jacobson claim at the end of November. She was a winner with N3L allowance company at Turfway two starts back and she was a game second at a similar level in her last start. I think she fits well from a pace standpoint in a race which could have a hot tempo on the front end. She’s sired by Danza, who won the Arkansas Derby on this course, so perhaps a trip here will change her fortunes on a traditional dirt course. Ramon Vazquez rode both Tripolina (#1) and Titled Lady (#7) in their last starts, so I do think it’s telling that he winds up on Tripolina. She was excellent in her local debut where she came within a length of beating Haulin Ice. She might have had a shot at getting to her had she gotten a cleaner trip. She tried two turns last out and tired late to be 4th to In Just My Heels. I don’t love the rail draw for her running style, but the setup should be there. Sharp Tune (#5) figures to be the quickest of the speed horses in this race. She should be able to secure the rail, which wasn’t a bad thing yesterday. She won at this level at Sam Houston when facing a weaker group. She showed promise earlier in her career so that last race might serve as a good confidence builder.
Race 9, The $150K Dixie Belle Stakes:
The featured race on the card today is this six furlong sprint for three year old fillies. I think You’ll Be Back (#4) looms large in this race. She tried two turns in the Years End Stakes at the end of December and she ran well, despite having a more sprint oriented pedigree. I like the move to bring her back to a sprint race because she looked great two back when breaking her maiden at the Fair Grounds. She handled a muddy course well last out, so track condition is not going to be a factor.There is a lot of speed signed on which favors G W’s Girl (#7), who is looking to win another stakes trophy at this meet. She was very good in the Mockingbird last month after two good turf races to start her career. She beat an odds on favorite in that race. Her Tomlinson Figure is strong, so there’s reason to believe that she can run back to that race on a sloppy course. However, I do worry that she may bounce off that career top last out. Innocence (#3) is a live longshot in this race for Steve Asmussen. She won a small stakes race at Sunland last month, drawing off to win by five lengths. With the likely defection of Gunite Max (#2)m who ran poorly in the Honeybee yesterday, she figures to be able to secure inside position on the front end. The pace battle could be contentious, but she’s well bred and could be getting better while coming into this race.
Race 10:
The Monday card concludes with a $40K-$35K N3L claiming race going one mile. Count Dracula (#4) is the play for me in this spot. Three starts ago, he cleared the N2L condition in an $80K claiming race in the slop at Churchill. He tried going 12 furlongs in his next start and wasn’t terrible when finishing 4th. He struggled in his last start at Turfway on the synthetic, which explains why McPeek is having him come back here. He ran a strong race in allowance company at this distance on this course last spring. I think he can pull off the mild upset in this race. Luna Vieja (#7) just missed at this level in his last start. This is now his third start off the layoff, so that effort seemed like an indicator that he’s moving back to the better form we saw from him last spring. He crossed the wire first on this course last season, but his number was taken down. On deeper tickets, Bolt at Midnight (#11) was a winner with $55K-$50K N2L claimers in his local debut. He’s running for a lower tag, but moving up in class for this race, so taking too short of a price could be a cautionary tale. The post is not ideal either. However, his best race puts him right in the mix.
2024-25 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 62/306 (20.3%, $568.00, $1.86 ROI)
February 2025 Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 16/94 (17.0%, $109.00, $1.16 ROI)
Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)
