Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 2/28/25 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll kick off what hopefully is a normal three-day week of racing at Oaklawn with a ten race, Friday afternoon card. There’s a stakes quality, optional claiming/allowance race as the feature today, which was brought back from one of the cancelled days earlier this month. First post is set for 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

A field of 11 (with 10 betting interests) will go 1 1/16 miles in this $12,500 N2L claiming race that will light this fire today. Lear (#2) looks awfully tough in this race for Team Asmussen. Under most circumstances, his last four efforts would likely all be good enough to put him in the Winner’s Circle at this level. He’s dropping out of allowance company at Sam Houston where he left himself a little too much work to do in his most recent effort. He needs to be closer, but he showed two back that he’s not likely to run his best race when setting the tempo. I think Ramon Vazquez has no choice but to try to clear with Big Gain (#10) sitting out there in Post 11. I’m looking for him to get a nice pocket trip, in behind the front-runners. I expect him to be finishing the fastest in this one. Point Blank (#1) is the part of the coupled entry that is a little bit appealing to me. He ran a career top speed figure on this course at a similar level of competition last spring. He’s been progressing nicely since coming back from a seven month layoff. He got better with more reps last season, so this could be a spot where we see his A game. Even so, I think underneath, in the vertical exotics is the most logical landing spot for him. 

Race 2: 

Arkansas bred fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this $20K maiden claiming race. Texas Sequoia (#14) is the morning line favorite if she gets to participate. If not, Sending (#6) becomes the morning line choice. Regardless, I don’t trust either of these runners. Moenchanted (#12) is the top play while breaking from the outside stall in this race. She has six starts and two second place finishes in that span. Two of those six races were sprint races on a fast track, and she ran well on both of them. Her last two sprints came over off tracks and she misfired in both. She makes her first start since April for new connections. There’s several speed and fade types signed on for this race and she’s one of the few runners in this race that has the ability to pass horses. Tactical Empress (#7) feels like the most consistent of late. She was a decent third at this level two starts back. They bumped her up in class to state bred restricted maiden special weight company, which felt like a reach. She ran a race that would likely be competitive at this level. It’s hard to get excited about taking a horse at a short price from a barn that went 1-54 in 2024 though. She’s still an A line play due to the lack of depth here. On deeper tickets, I’d be looking for some longer priced runners that could be ready to break through. If Confirmed Forgery (#13) draws into this field, she’d be an interesting price play in her third career start. She was lousy in her first two tries against state bred maiden special weight company. Both of those races were relatively fast for the condition and were won by runaway winners. She takes a massive drop in class today. She figures to be at the pack of the pack, but I do think a lot of these are going to be going in the wrong direction at the quarterpole. Maybe she’d be a candidate to come over the top late. Sundae Sprinkles (#2) is the first time starter that seems to have the best morning drills. Ike Green only saddled 28 horses in 2024, winning with two of them. He’s started six runners at this current meet, scoring one time. This Mark Valeski filly has been showing faster times in the morning in her last few starts and she isn’t going to have to be a world beater to win with this group today. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will dash six furlongs in an open $12,500-$10,000 claiming race. Bertie’s Cause (#8) went off at 38-1 when trying starter allowance company in her last start. She outran her odds that day, finishing 4th while posting a competitive Beyer Speed Figure. She’s started eight times on this course and she’s won half of those races, accounting for all four of her career wins. She put together a nice string of races here last season and I see her trending in the right direction today. She feels like a solid play in this race. Erik Asmussen saw an opening with Trafalgar Shore (#6) last time  out and he went for it. She went to the lead only to be collared by Candy Arcade (#3) in that spot. She was making her first start since November that day, so she could’ve been a bit rusty. I expect her to be finishing better in this race today. Candy Arcade has two wins at this meet, representing half of the victories for her trainer, Dan Ward, and all of the wins for her jockey, Martin Garcia. She has benefited from having a sharp pace to close into in her last two starts. She’s looking to stay unbeaten on this oval. I don’t love her at a sure price, because she is pace dependent. However, I do see ingredients that could give her what she needs in this spot. 

Race 4:

Beaten $8K claimers will travel 1 1/16 miles in this race. Should Cajun Eddie (#14) draw in, it would totally change the complexion of this race. While he’ll have to navigate an outside draw, I do think he’s more consistent than the rest of the runners in this race. I like that End Zone Athletics re-claimed him in the fall after losing him for $7,500 last February. His last two races have come in sprint races at Delta, but I think he’s more effective at longer distances. However, whether he’s in the race or not, Lucky Boss (#3) is the top pick for me. This is probably the right level of competition for him at this point in his career. He was much sharper in his first two races here last season. After clearing the N1X condition in December, he went to the sidelines for about three months and has been a little flat ever since. He’s made three starts at this meet since June and his only dud came on a muddy and sealed race course. He was wide throughout last time, which didn’t help his cause when he was beaten by a 4-5 favorite who was clearly the best in that field. He has a post advantage over several of the other contenders and I think he sits the perfect trip, assuming that Cost Basis (#2), Mo Moves (#7), and Frost Alert (#8) are sent with speed. If Cajun Eddie is in, I’m comfortable using this duo on the majority of the tickets. If he’s out, I’d look to upgrade Independent Paul (#12) and Megatap (#10) (in that order of preference). Independent Paul is another runner that is going to have to overcome a tough post draw. He was a winner in his last start at Turfway. He was cross-entered in a race there on Wednesday night, but Jacobson defected from that race, presumably in favor of this one. He faced a few tough customers in his last two starts on this oval. He dropped in class to clear the N2L with $5K claimers at Turfway. He’s back on dirt and now facing a group where there are several runners that are not in very good current form. Megatap is one that has been struggling lately, but he is making his second start off the layoff this afternoon. He was empty when running with the waiver in a similar spot last time out. He improved in his second start off the layoff here last year, so there’s reason to believe he could trend up in this spot. I think he’s one to think about underneath, especially if he’s sitting there around in his 15-1 morning line figure. 

Race 5: 

Three year old fillies will go six furlongs in this $75K N2L claiming race. Both Complex Secret (#5) and Daisy Duke (#8) are going to take the bulk of the wagering dollar in this race, and rightfully so. They finished ¼ of a length apart in an optional $62,500 claiming/$50K starter allowance race here last month. Both of these fillies were entered for a claiming tag in that race and Complex Secret was claimed for $62,500. They are entered in a race for a higher claiming tag, but technically they’re dropping in class. Complex Secret now runs for Norman McKnight, who has good numbers first off the claim. Daisy Duke stays in the Moquett barn and she looked like a horse that had grown and gotten faster in her time off. She’s second off the layoff in this spot. Both of these fillies are worth using prominently, but don’t sleep on Battleshipper (#7), who is going to be my top pick in this race. She showed some ability at Prairie Meadows this summer, breaking her maiden in impressive fashion in August. She was second in a stakes race there when facing the boys at the end of August. She went to the sidelines and returned in the Mockingbird Stakes here last month, which featured two pretty nice fillies. G W’s Girl was the winner of that race and she came back to score in the Dixie Belle here on Monday. This Midshipman filly didn’t run a step against her last month. However, she drops in class and gets to run with race day Lasix for the first time this afternoon. I see her as an interesting alternative to the shorter prices. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $15K-$10K N3L claiming race for three year olds and up, going six furlongs. There’s several ways to go in this race, but I think Ravin’s Town (#6) is the one to beat. He has enough speed to be forwardly placed, but he doesn’t need the lead. John Haran does not win a high percentage of his races, but part of the reason for that is that his horses are often ambitiously placed. His horses run well when they are well-spotted. Wendelssohn was the winner of the N3L allowance race that he was in last time out and that one put up a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort. This gelding was outrun and beaten by over 20 lengths, posting a 52 Beyer. Three back, he lined up against the likes of B Sudd and others, in a starter allowance race. 85 was the winning Beyer Speed Figure for that race. Sandwiched in between those efforts was a $35K-$30K N3L claiming race where he ran well at long odds to be 4th. This is a major drop in class for a horse that is fast enough to beat this field. He’s likely going overlooked in the wagering, especially while facing the Amoss runner, Express Cruiser (#4). That one put up a big figure last out on a good course against a softer field. I’m not convinced he’s going to be able to replicate that effort. King Anthony (#13) needs some help to draw into this race, but he’s another live longshot in this race if he gets to run. He was sharp at Hawthorne in July, but he’s struggled in his last few starts. At 15-1, I’m willing to excuse all three of those efforts. He was overmatched in the St. Louis Derby in August. He was away from August to January when he resurfaced here. He wasn’t terrible when facing better N3L claimers, but one could argue that he needed the race. He caught a sloppy course at that level last out and didn’t seem to enjoy it. He drops in class and makes his third start off the layoff now. The track should be fast as the forecast is sunny with spring like temperatures today. I think he’s candidate to move forward if he is in this race. Axton (#12) moved forward in a $10K beaten claiming race at the beginning of January when he was last seen on the racetrack. He was making his first start off the Steve Asmussen claim that day. He lingered near the back of the pack in the earlier stages and made up some ground to finish in the middle of the field. He’s better when he gets to show a little more tactical speed. He’s more of a backup and bottom of the vertical exotics type of horse for me. 

Race 7:

This is a N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. Originally this race was carded for 2/15. That race oversubscribed and was split into two heats. They ran the first division, but the second division was cancelled due to excessive rainfall. The racing office brought this race back today and while there are a few new faces, I pretty much see the race playing out the same way. Lemon Muffin (#11) has yet to return to the Winner’s Circle. Since then, she’s earned some minor awards at this level, but there’s not a lot of forward momentum for this filly. She’s been well-supported at the windows in her first three starts at this meet, but she’s burned money each time, never looking like a winner in any of those three races. Despite the soft field, she’s not for me in this race, especially at shorter odds. I’m going with Simply Enchanting (#9) as my top pick here. She was four wide on both turns in that race. The muddy course was tiring and yielding slower times, so the pace battle that day was legitimate. She got tired, but kept fighting to finish 4th. In Just My Heels came back to clear the N2X condition in her next start so I think the lower figures that came out of that race might be a little misleading. That was this filly’s first try on an off track and her first start in three months. While her best figures have come in one turn races so far, I see her as a candidate to move forward in this race. Crazy Cami (#6) was third in that same race two starts back. She ran back at this level two weeks ago where she didn’t break particularly well. She hit the front but could not hold off Claret Beret. She’s a consistent runner that can handle an off track. Another wide draw is probably not ideal, but she beat the top pick on the square two back. On deeper tickets, Late to the Game (#7) feels like a horse that could be a live longshot in this race. She broke her maiden in her second career start, sprinting six furlongs here last month. She’s sired by Competitive Edge, who was sired by Super Saver, who won the Derby in the mud back in 2010. Her dam sire is A.P. Indy, who has produced several runners that have flourished on off tracks. She stretches out to two turns for her third career start, and while she would be a horse that might thrive on an off track, I think she’ll move forward in a longer race. 

Race 8: 

The final Pick-3 opportunity of the afternoon begins with a time restricted $16K claiming race. This is yet another race on this card that drew an oversubscribed field. Dazzlemesilver (#5) gets the top call in this spot while cutting back to a sprint. His last four starts in one turn races were sharp, but he struggled last out when going one mile with a tougher group. While he has shown the ability to handle longer distances, the trip was the bigger issue for him in that race. He drew the outside post and lost a considerable amount of ground on both turns. I Got No Munny (#13) is yet another runner on this card that has a live shot if they’re able to draw into their respective races. He struggled in his last start after blowing the break at Sam Houston in allowance company two weeks ago. He was a strong second place finisher in open $30K-$25K claimers two starts ago. It’s been a long time since he’s been in the Winner’s Circle, but this is also a deep drop in class. Tim Tal (#2) makes his first start since July for Lindsay Schultz. He was a voided claim for $25K that day and the fact that he’s back in for $16K off the bench is a little concerning. If he can run back to his better form, he’s going to contend with this group. There are some valid questions though, so value is going to be paramount. Hello Hot Rod (#12) has a pair of dull efforts in one mile races here in his last two starts. He stumbled at the break two back and was wide on both turns in his last start. While this isn’t his best distance, he was much sharper in his one turn efforts. At longer odds, he’s also worth considering in a wide open race. 

Race 9:

The Late Pick-4 begins with an interesting conditioned allowance race for four year olds and up going nine furlongs. To be eligible for this race, a horse must have either never won four times or they cannot have won more than $35K twice in their career, other than maiden, claiming, or starter allowance company. Magic Tap (#4) makes his 2025 debut for Steve Asmussen, and he figures to be tough with this group. He beat some of these runners last year in a N3L allowance when making his first start off the layoff. He has nine career starts in two turn races and all of them have fallen  in the 92-96 Beyer range. He ran a 93 here off the layoff last time out and he ran a 94 Beyer when racing in a sea of slop in the 2023 PA Derby. I expect similar conditions today when he’s making his first start since a 5th place finish in the Oaklawn Handicap. He usually doesn’t take steps forward when facing better competition, but he also runs well enough to win when he competes in allowance company. You could argue that he had some rough trips in his three chances with graded stakes foes last season as well. I think he makes the most sense in this spot. Laughing Boy (#7) is the one for me to back up with in this race. He figures to be the pacesetter in this race since he really has only one way of winning a race. Maybe Winnemac Avenue (#3) or Game Warden (#1) can push him a little bit on the front end, but I think he’s going to be able to set a moderate pace in this 1 ⅛ mile affair. He’s likely going to be overlooked after a non-effort in the Tinsel Stakes in his last start, but they ran a silly pace on the front end in that one and he was never involved. I think it’s much more likely to see a 48 and change half mile as opposed to a 45:4 one that they clicked off in that race. I’m not sure he’s good enough to hold off Magic Tap on the square, but it is worth considering that the favorite seems to find himself in trouble. If Laughing Boy can get a big enough head start when the real running begins, he might be able to pull off the upset. 

Race 10:

State bred fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $20K maiden claiming race. Very Cosmopolitan (#4) is the one to beat in this race. She was a tepid favorite with state bred maiden special weight company in her last two starts. She ran okay races in both of those contests, but neither was close to a winning race. She drops in class for her third start off the layoff. She has more upside than any in this field. It’s not a sexy pick, but not there’s not a ton of logical alternatives. Devlish Gal (#8) made one start back in March in maiden special weight company. She drops in class for her first start in nearly a year. She might need this race, but her first start was going well enough until it wasn’t. There are four first time starters on the outside of the starting gate. Sublime Hope (#9) could be the one to watch from this group. Her dam has foaled a debut winner and another runner that just missed on debut. The works are good enough for this level. Her connections don’t win a ton of races, so the price figures to be right. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 62/316 (19.6%, $568.00, $1.80 ROI)

February 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 16/104 (15.4%, $109.00, $1.05 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)