Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 2/8/25 – By Eric Solomon

The week of racing will end early with this 10 race Saturday card. Tyler Gaffalione makes his first trip to Hot Springs this season, and while he’s here to ride Loved in the Grade 3 Bayakoa, he has several mounts throughout the afternoon. There’s no racing tomorrow to leave plenty of time to watch the Eagles in the Super Bowl on Sunday (Go Birds!) First post this afternoon is scheduled for 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

This is a tough card this afternoon on the heels of a rough few days for me. It doesn’t get much easier with this $50K-$40K claiming race to start things off. It’s not very creative, but I find it hard to play against American Law (#8) in this spot. He already has notched a pair of wins at this meet. He was claimed for $16K in December when he was a 10-1 upset winner when making his local debut. He moved into a lower percentage barn and was 9th, but beaten only two lengths in a wild $30K-$25K claiming race where he was very wide and running at six furlongs, which isn’t his best trip. Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez claimed him for $30K on behalf of End Zone Athletics and that move paid immediate dividends when he was victorious with time restricted $40K claimers on 1/24. He should be able to stalk the pace and I trust him to stay in form for a barn that has been sharp all meet long. We’re not going to get the juicy prices he’s been offered at in his last two wins, but he makes the most sense to me in this one. Coinage (#3) is a longer priced runner that might have some upside. There are several horses that have some tactical speed in this race, but I think the early lead should be there for taking if Erik Asmussen chooses to do so. He was eased in a much tougher spot two back at Churchill. He dropped in class to face $30K-$25K claimers in the mud here on January 5th, and he didn’t run particularly well while taking a good amount of dirt to the face while racing behind horses. Most of his races have come on the turf, but other than his race two back where clearly something was amiss, he’s run well in a limited sample of dirt races on a fast track. If he’s not pressed early, he could be dangerous. 

Race 2: 

Four year olds and up will go one mile in a $12,500-$10,000 N3L claiming race. Seas of Normandy (#3) and Hey Boss (#4)are coming out two turn races here where they both drew post 12, and watching the replays back proves how challenging it can be to score from that post in a race that starts at the 1/16 pole here at Oaklawn. Seas of Normandy took the aggressive approach and went five wide into the first turn. He was able to use his speed to get into the three path, but that start took enough out of him to cause him to be a little leg weary in the stretch, losing by a little more than three lengths in a similar spot. Francisco Arrieta tried to find a place to tuck in with Hey Boss, but was still in the three path after conceding a lot of ground in a race with a slow to moderate pace. He was able to get over to the rail on the backside to save ground going into the second turn, but he had a wall of horses in front of him and was slightly impeded while making a forward move. He finished 9th, beaten 6+ lengths that day when facing a better group. He drops in class after running a pair of decent efforts at Churchill prior to his rough outing last time. I think the better draw should have him in a more advantageous position. I’ll give him the slight edge over Seas of Normandy, who will also be on the A line for me. Both of his career wins have come on this oval and he’s capable of running a big race, although he’s not very consistent with when he runs them. This feels like a spot for him to run better though. We have the rare coupled entry of Contrabandista (#1) and K Crown (#1A). These geldings are both owned by Flurry Racing Stables, but Contrabandista is trained by Kevin Martin and K Crown is trained by Dan Ward. While I don’t hate Contrabandista, it’s hard to ignore his 0-15 record at the track. I won’t complain about getting both horses, but the one I’m betting is K Crown. He finished third in his lone two turn start on a conventional dirt track at Monmouth in July. He ran in a N1X allowance race for three year olds there, but he went to the sidelines and wasn’t seen again until December when he came back and was competitive in a $30K-$25K N3L. There was some regression in his last race at that level, which explains the drop in class here. Since the layoff he sprinted twice, so this feels like the right time to stretch him out. 

Race 3:

A field of nine is entered in this maiden special weight sprint for fillies and mares, three and up. The morning line favorite, Stipulate (#1) is a three year old filly taking on a debuting three year old and seven four year olds in this race. Her debut at the Fair Grounds was sharp, but she regressed in her second start when catching a sloppy course against a full field there. Amoss brings her here to face a field that feels below average for this level of competition. While she’s facing older runners here, I think she’s facing a softer field, while running for a purse that $50K larger than what she was running for in New Orleans. I can’t argue with the logic, as I think Amoss identifies this division as a weakness at this meet. She’s the lone A line play in this race, but I think there are a few worth backing up with. I liked Leilauni Sue (#7) somewhat in her debut back in December, and she ran on well to be third in that spot. John Ortiz’s runners have struggled a lot at this meet, and maybe the tough luck effort from McDude in yesterday’s feature encapsulated his struggles. However, this filly has every right to improve in her second try. I’ll also throw in Gun Twirl (#3) who ran okay in her first start since April last month. She was 4th that day when running evenly, but never gaining on the winner in a relatively slow race. She likely needed that race, so a forward move is possible. She cost her owners $300K, so I don’t think they’ve given up on her yet. 7-2 feels a little light, but there’s not many other logical directions to go in. 

Race 4:

Arkansas breds will go six furlongs in this maiden special weight race carded for three year olds and up. The 12 runners in the body of the field are three year olds and only the AE runners are both four year olds. This is likely a different race if Tizmarcus (#14) draws in from the AE list. He was fairly sharp on debut and he’ll be facing a field of runners that might not be ready to tackle a horse like him. He was three lengths better than Bote in that race, who was making his third career start that day. Bote is a three year old that beat Castle Gap (#3), who is the 5-2 morning line favorite (2nd choice if Tizmarcus draws in). While Castle Gap didn’t have a great trip, he could quite keep pace early on and lost position, which made his trip tougher on himself. He’s drawn inside again, so I’m not sure how well that bodes for him. If Tizmarcus stays in the barn, the Delta shipper, Personal Jet (#7) is where I’ll turn my attention to. He was slow to find his best stride in a five furlong race there. However, he was rolling late while going wide on the tight turn there. He finished with plenty of interest and was well in front on the gallop out. Ramon Vazquez taking the mount feels like a positive sign. I think this one is very interesting in this race. Whitely (#9) is Tyler Gaffalione’s first mount of the day, and this Petrov colt has been working well in the AM for Ron Moquett. This barn had another winner here yesterday. One of the dam’s two runners to make it to the track was a debut winner. Four O Nine (#1) is a longshot with a little bit of upside in this race. He ran in the same race that Tizmarcus finished third in. He finished about five lengths behind Bote, who was the best finishing three year old in that race. He gets a significant rider upgrade to Cristian Torres for his second career start. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an improved effort here. 

Race 5: 

Time restricted $10K-$8K claimers will go one mile in this race which will end the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 wagers. This is another race where it’s hard to find a viable alternative to the favorite. On a Spree (#6) struggled in the slop last out when facing a considerably better field. While his is known to throw in some clunkers from time to time, he’s won a lot of races in his career (14-47). His two losses in three starts on this oval came on sloppy courses. He should get a fast track today and he’s facing a lot of listless runners in poor current form. If he runs his race, he’s going to win. Lucky Boss (#9) is the backup for me in this spot. He has yet to show he can get close to his 2023 form. His five starts last year were not good, but they all came against significantly better fields. He started off the 2023-24 meet with a bang, but has struggled since. Perhaps the class relief can help his cause here. 

Race 6: 

Time restricted $30K-$25K claimers will go one mile here. Pats Property (#3) has been underwhelming in two starts against better company in his first two tries at this meet. However, he’s a horse that has popped here at big odds in the past. Early speed is the name of his game and the apprentice Tyler Bacon was not very aggressive with him after he dwelt a bit at the break and was unable to gain forward position. Other runners in that allowance race wanted to be on the pace as well. He’s going to have to contend early with Polterer (#9) and possibly Dazzlemesilver (#11) from outside stalls. However, the rider switch to Walter De La Cruz tells me that he is going to be sent to the front, which is where he does his best running. His start two back wasn’t terrible when he got a little leg weary late. He should be fully fit and I think he’s dangerous at this level if he can set the tempo. Fifty Cent Dollars (#10) was flat when facing four rivals in starter allowance company last month. He was sharper here two starts ago with open claiming company at this same tag. He has a good track record at this distance and while he’s only won once in seven career tries here, his last start was the first time he finished off the board. I think he can rebound with this group. Eastside Cool (#1) could certainly be flattered if American Law wins the opener. That one had his number in his last two tries. He was competitive in both starts, finishing in the money both times. He has six wins in 16 career starts on this oval, whereas he’s only 1-25 away from Oaklawn. 

Race 7:

The Late Pick-4 begins with an optional $20K claiming/$16K starter allowance race for four year olds and up, sprinting six furlongs. There’s a pair of ten year olds in this race, and the one that intrigues me the most is Payne (#10). He just seems to save his best efforts for this course. It’s true that he’s probably lost a step, but he keeps firing here, winning in a dead heat in his most recent effort. He ran some monster races here last spring and I think he’ll continue to get a little bit better as the weather gets warmer. The spring like 75 degrees in the forecast today, in advance of the sharp cool down tomorrow, should be right up his alley. The other ten year old is Wind of Change (#2). While the forecast is primarily dry tomorrow, there are chances for spotty showers and if they get enough rain to downgrade conditions, he’ll be a major upgrade for me. He’s 8-12 on wet tracks with two second place finishes thrown in there. He ran a credible race two back on a fast track, but he’s a difference maker, especially if they’ll need to seal the track. On a fast track, he’s a C play, but he goes up to an A line play on a wet course. Lightning Struck (#5) is the B line play for me here. He was a 32-1 winner here two back and he followed up that effort with a 5th place finish where he was beaten less than three lengths in open allowance company. This race is a softer spot for a horse that has been in the mix in each of his last eight starts. 

Race 8: 

Three year olds and up will sprint six furlongs in an interesting maiden special weight race. I’m interested in Iron Dome (#7) making his first career start for Steve Asmussen. Asmussen typically has a string in New York over the winter, so it’s interesting to see this New York bred with his Oaklawn contingent. This colt was a $500K purchase though and he’s a half to Mr. Buff, who was an excellent New York bred runner. He might need this race, but I think one could be worth a look. D. Wayne Lukas rolled the dice by sending Bon Temps (#6) in the Grade 3 Southwest two weeks ago, and he wanted no part of that smoke. His race two back wasn’t bad. I don’t love the cutback in distance to six furlongs, but I do see this as the right level of competition. Adding Lasix and going route to sprint are good angles for this barn, which had a winner yesterday and is having an above average meet. Velociraptor (#5) is a four year old with two starts under his belt at Gulfstream and Churchill. He’s been away since September and now makes his first start of the year for Mark Casse. This barn has brought several live runners to this meet, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he moves forward in this wide open race. 

Race 9, The Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes:

The first graded race of the meet for older fillies and mares drew a compact field of six, including a few shippers. I like Free Like a Girl (#5) in this race. This mare is 21-47 in her career with 17 other in the money finishes. She’s coming off a 4th place finish in the Houston Ladies Classic two weeks ago, but that looked like a race where she was starting to turn back to her better form .She was third in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom here last season behind Adare Manor and she was second in the La Troienne behind Idiomatic. She likes racing here and I think she’ll sit a decent trip, not too far off the cheap speed of Wild Bout Hilary (#2). Loved (#6) is the one to beat, making her six year old debut for Brendan Walsh. Tyler Gaffalione made the trip to Arkansas with the purpose of riding this mare who was dominant in the Grade 3 Falls City at Churchill when she was last seen on the track .That was a good enough effort to put her under consideration for some of the bigger races here in the spring. She’s a horse that showed signs of being a beast earlier in her career, but injuries got in the way. Her last was a glimpse at the promise of a strong season for this Godolphin runner that has only started 10 times in her career. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Little Jamie (#3), who may be starting to put things together in her four year old season. Her last race was a win in the Wayward Lass at Tampa, and that was her best career effort to date. She hasn’t won a ton of races, so taking too short of a price isn’t in our best interests. I do think she has more to offer though. 

Race 10:

There’s some strong pedigrees in this maiden special weight race for three year old fillies going one mile. I’ll try Momentario (#9) on top for Steve Asmussen. She ran in one of the better maiden special weight races here for two year old fillies earlier in the meet. She had trouble at the break in that race and got tired late. The winner of that race, Jenkin, came back to win the Year’s End Stakes and the runner up, Legal Empress, was a maiden breaker in her next start and most recently finished third in the Martha Washington Stakes. I think that race will prove to be educational and I expect a better effort from her in start number three. Princess Em Too (#4) caught a muddy track and a wide trip when trying two turns for the first time in her last start. She finished 6th that day, racing on the part of the track that seemed to be less than ideal .She’ll add Lasix for the first time while getting post relief going into this race. She makes a lot of sense as a horse that could take a step forward here. Yes Ma’am (#8) is the half-sister to Mystik Dan. She took some money on debut, going off at 9-2. She broke well and battled for the early lead before fading to 5th. She’ll try two turns for the first time and will likely be overbet once again. However, Tyler Gafffalione taking the mount feels like a positive in a race that is lacking a true standout. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 51/250 (20.4%, $495.80, $1.98 ROI)

February 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 5/38 (13.2%, $36.80, $0.97 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)