Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 3/1/25 – By Eric Solomon

There are 11 races on this Saturday card which features the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes for Arkansas bred fillies and mares. There are some interesting races up and down this card and the weather forecast is ideal for the first day of March. Personally, with the amount of bad beats I had here last month, February couldn’t have ended soon enough. First post is set for 12:25 (CT) and with the extra race on the card, Oaklawn is offering an additional Pick-5 starting in the 5th race and an additional Pick-4 starting in Race 6. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares, three and up, sprinting six furlongs. Half of this field was there when D. Wayne Lukas unveiled a four year old filly, Nuit Magique, who cost a million dollars. She was toying with that field before powering home to win by eight lengths that afternoon. The two horses that I want to bet back out of that race are Leilani Sue (#2) and Stipulate (#3). Leilani Sue was making her second career start. They set a quick pace and Vazquez was getting her  into early that day. She made a visually striking move, but flattened out when the winner started pulling clear. I like the addition of blinkers today for her third career start. I think with better early positioning she’ll be able to make up the 3 ½ lengths needed on Stipulate, who is the morning line favorite. The trouble line mentioned traffic issues in her last start, which was her first time over this oval. I didn’t see a ton of trouble for her in that race, though she was breaking from the rail. Her first two starts at the Fair Grounds were stronger though. I don’t love the declining Beyer pattern for a horse that figures to be favored, but I do think she’s better than most of these. If the odds discrepancy holds up, I’d rather take the bigger price on Leilani Sue. 

Race 2: 

Arkansas breds will sprint six furlongs in this $20K maiden claiming contest which drew an overflow field of 14. Tammy Hornsby and Walter De La Cruz teamed up to win the race at this condition for fillies and mares yesterday, and they’ll send out my top pick, Mo Heartaches (#4) in this race today. He debuted in a $50K state bred maiden claiming race four weeks ago. The runner in the stall inside of him took a right hand turn and slammed into him a few strides after the gate opened. He made a nice middle move while cornering wide and flattening out late to finish 7th. He gets class relief and has every right to move forward at this level with a better journey. I like his chances a good bit today. I’ll back up with Rerun (#1) cutting back to a sprint after struggling with state bred maiden claimers when going two turns. The rail is not a great draw for him, so Alberto Pusac is going to need to be on his toes. We’ll see if this is a spot where he can put things together. I would probably need a better price than his 9-2 morning line figure to get involved though. 

Race 3:

Beaten $8K claimers will sprint six furlongs here. They blew up the toteboard in the two turn race at this condition yesterday. Tie Breaker (#9) might be a horse that fits that profile in this race. He was sharp over the summer and fall on the dirt at Delaware and Monmouth when racing for Dan Ward. He shipped here and was never interested when running at a similar condition five weeks ago. Timothy Martin claimed him out of that race and while I would have liked to have seen a formal work over this course since that effort, I do think it’s worth gambling that he can improve here. 15-1 (ML) feels more than fair. Family Tradition (#12) has been up and down in form, which is not unusual for a race at this condition. He was slow to go from the gate two back, but he was closing well to get into second place at this level two back. He wasn’t nearly as effective at two turns in his last start though. One thing to keep in mind is that he is 4-9 at this distance with only an off the board finish. That makes him 0-13 at other distances in his 22 race career. Two of those wins came on this course, so I do see upside with him as well.The rail is not a great draw for Super Brady (#2), but I do think he’s one of the more consistent runners in this field. He fell apart late when he was the favorite at this level two starts ago. He was claimed that day and he came back in a tougher, open $12,500-$10,000 claiming race where he also faded late. The rail almost forces his hand to try to make the lead and there are other parties that seem interested in setting the pace as well. Speed has been better on this course lately than it was earlier in the meet. I’ll back up with him and also the morning line favorite, Elusive d’Oro (#5). I’m torn with this one because my gut is telling me to try to beat him. He’s a Delta shipper, meaning that he’s been running in two turn sprints of late. He’s been relatively consistent in those spots, which is a plus at this level of competition. After starting off this meet on fire, things have cooled off recently for Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez and End Zone Racing. They were 7-14 to start the meet, but have quickly gone 1-29 here since the calendar turned to 2025. They haven’t had a winner since 1/24 and the horses that have hit the board haven’t really been close to winning. He feels like more of a deeper saver for me here.

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500 maiden claiming race. Horses bred in Arkansas will run with a $20K tag. Coldasice (#12) is going to be a short price in this race, which makes sense because she ran two very sharp races at this level in her first two career tries. She was claimed two back and she moved up to $25K-$20K maiden claiming company where she was soundly defeated. She drops back to this level and she makes a lot of sense. However, at odds of 5-2 or lower, I am concerned that she had the lead in both of her two career races at this level and she gave it up in the stretch. It’s hard to get too excited about a horse that has not finished well in any of her races. She’ll be an A line play for me, but I’m going to try elsewhere. I’ll take a shot and make Don’t Post It (#5) the top pick. She debuted in a $30K maiden claiming race here last month, She was slow into stride and she definitely was affected by a chain reaction event, which caused her to take up and lose all action, while going out into the middle of the course, She finished last that day, but she wasn’t really asked to fire after the incident on the turn. With a drop in class like this and the fact that Doug Anderson has decent numbers with second time starters, I’m willing to give her a shot here at long odds. Line Runner (#11) also makes some sense in this race, making her second start off the layoff for Timothy Martin. She debuted well here in February of 24, but she struggled when going a mile in her second career try. She made her first start of the year against a tougher bunch. This feels like the right level of competition at this point in her career. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 wagers end and the mid-card Pick–5 begins with this $25K-$20K N2L claiming event going 1 1/16 miles. I see Tiz Wicked Strong (#9) as the one to beat in this race. This Wicked Strong gelding has been sharp in his first two starts since moving to Lindsay Schultz’s barn. He was a good second in a $35K-$30K N2L claiming race two starts back and he ran a decent figure against a much sharper group in starter allowance company last time. He drops in class to a level where he makes a lot of sense. It took him some time to break his maiden, but many of those efforts came over the synthetic and turf courses. His dirt efforts have generally been sharp. I think he’s just better than this group today. Charbon (#4) is a horse that is interesting underneath at a price. Tiz Wicked Strong was about five lengths better than him when they squared off two back. He was beaten eight lengths on a sloppy course in his last start two months ago. He takes an incremental drop in class and he should be catching a fast track for the first time in his last four starts. There’s not a ton of pace signed on for this race, so he could wind up lonely on the lead. I think the tactical speed of Tiz Wicked Strong could make things difficult, but I could see him hanging around for a piece of the action at long odds. 

Race 6: 

The additional Pick-4 wager on the card begins with this $50K maiden claiming race for three year olds at six furlongs. There’s a lot of speed from the main contenders in this race and they’re horses that have locked heads in a duel before. This could be a good spot for the firster, Jinxzi (#8) for Ron Moquett and Southern Springs Stables. His dam has foaled seven runners that have made it to the track, and all seven have at least one career win. None of them won on debut, but the majority of them started in tougher maiden special weight races. His recent works are solid despite missing a month of training in January. If he’s comfortable stalking or coming from off the pace, he might be able to pull off the upset. McMusic (#10) is another runner that could be prominent in the later stages of this race. He broke in the middle of the pack when facing an optional maiden claiming field here on debut. He ran an even race that day, pretty much staying on the merry-go-round in 5th place the entire time. The figures came back reasonable and Asmussen’s runners tend to get better in their second career tries. On deeper tickets, Tip Toe Joe (#5) is a runner that is gradually improving. After a disastrous debut in Texas, he has come back to run four times, incrementally improving in each start. He wasn’t far behind Putting Eagle (#2) last time out and I think the pace scenario favors him more than the shorter priced runner in this race. 

Race 7:

Eight three year old fillies are entered in this optional $200K claiming/N1X allowance race going 1 1/16 miles. I made a case for Legal Empress (#7) at 25-1 in the Martha Washington Stakes five weeks ago, and she gave me a thrill on the front end before fading to third behind Take Charge Milady and Quietside. The latter runner coming back to score handily in the Honeybee Stakes last weekend certainly flatters here. She comes back to the N1X level, which feels like the right level of competition for her. While there are some sprinters stretching out that could press the pace, I think she could wind up as the lone speed in here. I see her as the one to beat. Princess Em Too (#2) took a nice step forward when getting a fast track in a two turn race three weeks ago. She was also running with race day Lasix for the first time in that race, which certainly didn’t hurt her prospects. She’ll face winners today and she could sit the right trip stalking the pace, especially if one of the runners stretching out decides to force the issue early on. Ken McPeek has a pair of runners in this race. While In Awe of Juju (#4) was flattered when Pretty Layla scored here in allowance company twp weeks ago, I prefer Decadent (#5) at this distance. She debuted nicely to score in the slop when going seven furlongs. I have often maintained that it takes a horse of a certain quality to win at seven furlongs or a one turn mile when making their debut and this filly looked good while doing so. She’ll stretch out to two turns in her first start since the end of December. She was working well at Gulfstream before McPeek opted to send her here via the Fair Grounds. 

Race 8: 

Arkansas breds will go six furlongs in this optional $30K claiming/N1X allowance race going six furlongs. This is another race where some of the shorter prices seem intent on being on the lead. Brahms Image (#10) has only one way to go and the same could be said with Strike Ridge (#1) on the rail. Strato (#4) also wants to be forward and he could be a little keyed up while making his first start off a nine month layoff. Burlsworth (#6) is one of three recent maiden winners that interests me in this race. He was all out to get by Two Dollar Eddie last time out, but he got there in time to graduate. He makes his third start off the layoff and he’s doing so after some much sharper workouts than usual. I think he can stalk the pace and make a run at the pacesetters here. Al’s Romeo (#12) could be looking for the same kind of trip. He’s a five year old that has been very sharp of late. He clearly needed his first start at this meet back in December, but his other four tries in his last five have been very sharp. He was a winner against a better allowance field here last time out. I’m a little surprised he’s running in this spot instead of the Nodouble Breeders Stakes tomorrow, but the reality is that the purse differential isn’t that  much larger and this gelding has a better shot with this field. They don’t need to worry about a stakes win for the breeding program, so it makes sense to run him at this level, especially since he’s still eligible to race without the tag. Gettinby (#9) and Paramount Paycheck (#11) are both recent maiden winners that were quite impressive in their second career starts. Both runners drew away to win their respective heats by five lengths. Gettinby retains his rider, while Walter De La Cruz opted to keep the mount aboard Brahms Image. Both runners are worth considering in this race on some deeper tickets. 

Race 9, The $150K Downthedustyroad Breeders Stakes:

There are two stakes races at this meet for Arkansas bred fillies and mares and this is the only one that is a sprint. I don’t really see a viable alternative to Haulin Ice (#1) in this race. She’s been roughed up in three starts against graded stakes foes, but when facing state bred company, she’s been excellent. She was a winner on this oval against a nice open allowance field two back. Saffie Joseph brings her back to Arkansas for the lone state bred stakes race for filly and mare sprinters at this meet. She’s not in the same class as her rivals and the fact that Sulwe (#4), who is the third choice in the wagering, opted to enter in a starter allowance race tomorrow, tells me that not many of these runners want to try to tackle this Coal Front Filly. The logical alternative is Bennykayandsuzytoo (#9). She has a more desirable post and her running style might fit the pace scenario a little better than the favorite. She’s been caught late against lesser foes though, so her best shot is Haulin Ice getting buried along the rail. 

Race 10:

The Late Double begins with a N1X allowance race going one mile. Most of the runners in this race were brought back from a race last week on 2-22 where the card was cancelled. This is one of those races where the favorite is the kind of horse that puts up big figures, but struggles to run winning races. Lat Long (#5) has one win in 12 career starts, which did come on this oval last season. He’s coming off a race where he put up a big Beyer behind Baddest Good Boy. The third place finisher, Gewurztraminer, was six lengths behind him and he just came back to beat a solid N1X allowance field here on Sunday. When you go through the names that have beaten him over the last year or so, it’s clear that he has been facing better competition. However, with the 95 Beyer sticking out like a sore thumb in this field, I think he’s going to be taking a lot of money at the windows, enough to drive his price below his 2-1 morning line number. That big figure came in his second start off the layoff at the beginning of his four year old season. While it’s certainly possible that he’s becoming the kind of horse that can routinely run figures in the 90’s or better, he has yet to prove that he can be that horse. My other concern with him is that he has been clearly beaten in all of his losses. None of those races were head-bobs or near misses. He’s going to be B line play for me because of how he stands out on figures, but I do see this as a spot to try to find some value. Two runners that are both coming off the bench to make their three year old debuts are logical alternatives. Gun Party (#9) is as blue-blooded as they come, sired by Curlin and foaled by the Grade 1 winning mare, Carina Mia. The connections paid $1.7 million for him and he looked the part in his first few starts, running well to be second in his first two tries and then breaking through to score in his third career start. He misfired as the favorite in his first try against winners, but went to the sidelines after that race. Asmussen has him working well at the Fair Grounds though. Indy Magic (#2) finished ahead of him in that race (Lat Long was also there and he finished in front of both of them). He started once more at Ellis before going to the sidelines. Since then, he’s moved into Mark Casse’s barn and he’s been working over this course for his first start of 2025. Both barns have good numbers off the bench, so I trust both will be ready. I do think the odds disparity will shrink between these two, so I’ll give the slight edge to Gun Party, who has shown more tactical speed in the past than Indy Magic.

Race 11:

$12,500 maiden claimers going six furlongs will end the day. Cat Storm (#12) made his first start in 18 months here two weeks ago. He closed well to be third, beaten ½ of a length on a sloppy course. This is a deeper field and he should be running on a fast track today. I saw enough to believe he could move forward in this spot though. Good Lord (#5) feels very logical on the drop in class. Others in the field are dropping, but he’s at least been close in some of the tougher spots he’s been in. Tom Amoss spots his horses very well and this one feels live in spite of taking this nose dive in class. A deeper play that is one that I’ll be looking at underneath in the vertical exotics is Affixed (#3). He was claimed at this level when making his first start in six months in January. Michael Hewitt hasn’t won a ton of races lately, but part of that is a function of how he’s spotting his runners. He ran this one in a maiden special weight race here where he had no shot. Clearly he was doing well, and he ran an okay figure. The class relief in his third start off the layoff could be beneficial. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 65/326 (19.9%, $597.00, $1.83 ROI)

February 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 19/114 (16.7%, $138.00, $1.21 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)