Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 3/14/25 – By Eric Solomon

It looks like it’s going to be a perfect spring weekend in Hot Springs, Arkansas. We’ll kick things off with a nice, 10 race program, highlighted by a stakes quality allowance contest in the 9th race of the day. First post this afternoon is set for 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will go one mile in an open $35K-$30K claiming race to start off the card. The morning line favorite in this race is Pens Street (#1), who is making her first start in nearly six months. Prior to going to the sidelines, she was in some of the best and most consistent form of her career. She just missed in a starter allowance race going a one turn mile at Churchill when she was last seen on the track. While Hartman has decent numbers with runners coming off the bench, this mare has not been tearing up the track in the mornings. She was a winner on this course last season when facing lower level claimers. I don’t think this field is particularly deep, so I do think I’ll consider using her as a saver. However, as the favorite, I’m looking to try to beat her. I think Tiffany Twist (#6) has a big chance in this race. Rafael Bejarano has caught fire at this meet and he’s coming off a four win performance here on Sunday. Both he and Tom Amoss have winning percentages above their average figures when they team up. Amoss claimed her two starts back for $30K when she closed well to finish third in a sprint race. He tried her in allowance company last time out where she was overmatched. He drops her back in for a tag, and stretches her back out to a mile. She was a dominating winner here with $20,000-$17,500 claimers at this distance back in December. She’s racing for higher percentage connections these days and I think this a perfect spot for her to rebound. There’s not a lot of early speed signed on for this race, so I think Kirby Keys (#3) is a candidate to try to steal this one on the front end. She ran well to be second in a small stakes race at Remington two starts ago. She came here and struggled badly in a strong N1X allowance race in the mud back in January. Both starts on this oval have not gone well, but both of those races came against considerably better opponents. We’ll see if Ramon Vazquez puts her in play early here and if he does, I think she could be sitting the right kind of trip.

Race 2: 

A full field of $8K beaten claimers will sprint six furlongs here. I think Burning Leaves (#4) is an interesting play in this wide open contest. He’s been on a steady diet of two turn races. You have to go back 11 starts to August of 2023 to find the last time this Summer Front gelding ran in a one turn sprint race. That was a race where he ran a career top Beyer Speed figure, beating state bred $25K N2L claimers at Canterbury. He’s been competitive in the route races that he’s run, so it’s not like he’s been mismanaged. His two starts on this oval have been disappointing this year, but he faced an above average field for the $16K N3X claiming condition two back and the winner of his last race certainly eclipsed the Beyer par for the beaten $10K-$8K claiming level. He was claimed out of that spot and the first order of business is to return him to a six furlong sprint. He has two wins and two second place finishes at this distance, so while the barn doesn’t have a great track record with runners first off the claim, I like their intentions with this one and I think he’s a candidate to upset this group. Another price option in this race could be Metallic Man (#2). We’ve seen some Friday’s over the past two months where horses on the front end have had an edge, especially early on in the program. He has the best speed in the field and he’s taking a significant drop in class. He’s making his third start off the layoff today for David Jacobson, which feels significant. He was excellent in his last spot when making his third start of that form cycle back on 9/10, where he took fellow Indiana breds all the way in a state bred N2X allowance race. His two races before that effort were discouraging, there could be some light at the end of the tunnel if you’re backing him today. Derby Date (#12) is the morning line favorite, getting an outside draw in this race. I don’t love this one as the favorite in this race, but I can forgive his last start. He was a voided claim against a better field that day. He didn’t show his normal tactical speed and was relegated to the back of the field. Perhaps whatever ailment caused him to have the claim voided was the reason for that. He still finished with some interest, despite having to face a lot of traffic. The outside post should be an advantage for him, and I suspect the track vets will go over him even more thoroughly than normal to make sure he is fit to fire in this race. I’ll hold out hope of getting a better price, but I will be using him. 

Race 3:

This is an interesting starter allowance race for fillies and mares that have started at least one time for a claiming a tag and have never won three races. The morning line favorite in this spot is Daisy Duke (#1), who is a three year old filly taking on seven older rivals. She was a winner with $75K N2L claimers in a race that was restricted to three year old fillies last time out. She’s put together two solid efforts in her first two local starts, but now she’ll be facing a saltier group. She is making her third start off the layoff and after pairing her last two Beyer Figures, she is eligible to take a step forward. If she does move forward, I don’t think the other seven are going to be able to beat her. She’s an A line play for me in this race, but I’m not sure the value is going to be where I want it to be. At 8-5 (ML) or lower, I see that as being too short. I’d probably be looking for somewhere in the 5-2 or 3-1 range. I’ll take a chance and make Our Keepsake (#4) the top pick in this race though. She has been given a little extra time off by D. Wayne Lukas after some dull efforts in allowance company. She left here in sharp form last spring, but she struggled in Kentucky. She came back here where she had trouble at the start when facing a good field in the mud at the end of December. Lukas gave her some time off and drops her in class, but keeps her racing in protected company, which feels important to me. She was a winner here last year with $60:-$55K N2L claimers and she was competitive in a starter allowance spot after that. Her works seem a little more lively than they were at the end of January. This feels like a spot where she could turn things around. Copper Em (#7) feels like a safe backup for me in this race. She is coming off a strong effort in allowance company at Sam Houston. He’s finished in the money in her last four tries. Her lone start on this course wasn’t great, but she was facing a strong allowance field on a day where she was making her first start in about three months. I prefer her underneath in the vertical exotic wagers, but she is another runner that has a shot in this race. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500 maiden claiming contest. Horses bred in Arkansas will run with a $20K claiming tag. Flat Stormin (#12) makes a lot of sense in this race as the favorite. She’s been facing better and now drops to the button for Matt Shirer. I like her progression of races coming into a spot like this. After a disastrous debut at Churchill, she paired her Beyer Figures in her next two starts, both of which came at the maiden allowance level. Her figures increased in her last two starts when running for a $25-$20K maiden claiming tag. She paired the Beyers in those races where she wasn’t terrible, just not good enough. She drops to this level where she’ll face several runners that aren’t very consistent. I think if she moves forward slightly or just runs back to her last race, she’ll likely be too good for this group. Morally Complex (#7) is the backup for me in this race. She wasn’t terrible on debut when facing state bred maiden claimers on debut. She came back two weeks later in an opening maiden special weight race at Delta. She drew the rail and caught a sloppy course. She was under pressure the whole way and caved badly in that spot. She drops in class here and makes her third career start. She might have some upside in this race, but the fact that she’s racing with a $20K tag tells me that her connections think there are limitations. Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez broke an 0-26 losing streak here last weekend, so perhaps that will signify a return to better times for this barn.

Race 5: 

Fillies and mares go one mile in this $15K-$10K N2L claiming race. Blue Ember (#4) is the kind of horse that gets better with more races, so I’m expecting an improved effort in her third start off the break. She’s been a considerably better runner since stretching out to two turn races. She’s at her best when setting the tempo on the front end. Outside of the stretch out sprinter, Poetic Fury (#11), there doesn’t seem to be much competition for the early lead. She’s a threat to take this group all the way. Sensible Choice (#2) has been beaten by double digit lengths in her last three starts. She was claimed for $40K three starts ago, so it’s not ideal seeing her drop in class here. However, she had a nice string of races over the summer and I think the class relief could be the cure for what ails this Street Sense filly. Evocation (#8) has been knocking on the door in similar races. She was moving well late to get into second against a similar field last time out. She was claimed out of that race and comes back and now makes her first start for John Ortiz. Leparoux will take his turn in the saddle aboard a filly that figures to be able to rebound for at least a share of things in this spot. 

Race 6: 

$35K-$30K N3L claimers will sprint six furlongs in the first leg of the Late Pick-5. Several of these runners faced on a sloppy and sealed race course here last month in a race at this same condition. Hailstorm (#9) is entered for a claiming tag for only the second time in his 12 race career. The only other time came in a $100K maiden claiming race back in June at Churchill, which turned out to be his graduation day. He blew the break here two back when facing a full field in open allowance company. He broke near the back of the field again at Sam Houston in his most recent effort. He was a little more competitive in the later stages of that race, but finishing off the board there is the likely reason we’re seeing him take the drop in class. I like the fit in here enough to make this one the top pick. Crew Dragon (#6) was one of those runners that day when he was making his first start since October. He ranged up four wide but leveled off to finish 5th. It’s not always easy to close down the outside when this race course is sealed and this gelding likely needed the race. He makes his second start off the layoff and he finds a field with a lot of suspect speed on the inside. He hasn’t won a race in a long time, but I do think he’s a good fit in this race. The inside trio of Lend It Tewmey (#1), Magical Mark (#2), and Without Borders (#3) all figure to want to try to lay claim to the early lead. Lend It Tewmey just set a career top Beyer Figure as a seven year old, so I’m going to be hesitant to think he’ll run back to that race while moving up in class. Magical Mark has two strong figures in a row, but both have come on wet tracks. I don’t love the way Without Borders finished up last time out, but I do think his running style has been more successful in general on the course over the six weeks or so. While both of his career wins have come on the turf, his other two dirt races outside of his last have been good enough to compete at this level. He’s the one from that group of runners I’ll use on the B line.

Race 7:

The late Pick-4 begins with an optional $200K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. I’m interested in seeing what kind of effort we’re going to see from Iron Sharpens Iron (#4) while coming off the bench. He beat Burnham Square on debut in a $150K maiden claiming race at Keeneland at the end of their fall meet. He came back three weeks late at Churchill and finished a distant third behind Magnitude and California Burrito. All three of those runners were winners of Derby Points races this winter. (Burnham Square in the Holy Bull, Magnitude in the Risen Star, and California Burrito in the John Battaglia Memorial). His figures are a little light for this field, but he’s had four months away to develop. He’s been working well enough at the Fair Grounds. 20-1 (ML) is probably unrealistic, but 10-1 or better feels reasonably fair. Bermuda Blitz (#1) has put together a nice string of three races here during this meet, including a solid second place finish at this condition in his most recent start. He broke his maiden at two turns two starts ago with a open length win in an optional $80K maiden claiming event. He tracked a strong pace last out and made lead, but was passed in the late stages. Cristian Torres is not riding here today, which is a fair explanation for Ramon Vazquez getting the assignment for Mark Casse. The morning line favorite is Hymn (#5), who is coming off a monster effort in his debut here last month. The dam was a stakes placed sprinter and all of her wins came at one turn. McKinzie has had 30 runners route at least one time on a dirt course with five of them coming back as winners (17%). However, seven of those races were contested at one turn, and three of those five winners came in one of those races. His runners are 2-23 when debuting in two turn race, 2-21 if you don’t include the mile races that start on the turn at Ellis and Saratoga. He could clearly be the best horse in this race, but I think others will offer better value. He’ll be a backup for me in this spot. 

Race 8: 

The last Pick-3 wager of the day begins with a $12,500 N2L claiming race going six furlongs. I’m chilly on the favorites in this race, likely because they don’t feel like horses that love to win. I’ll take a shot with Natorade (#2) making his first start since July for Thomas Van Berg. He was sharp in his first two starts off the bench last year before going off form when facing winners. The barn has a nice track record with horses off longer layoffs and I think there could be enough pace to set up a late charge from him. Cloud Without Rein (#12) could be one of those runners that is attending what could be an aggressive early pace. He does have the outside post, so it could be up to Arrieta to try to get the jump on the horses racing inside of him as they go into the turn. He’s making his second start off the layoff and he put together a big effort last year on this course under similar circumstances. Greg Compton was the trainer of record then, so we’ll see if history repeats itself here. The third choice on the morning line is Celentano (#6) coming in from Canada. He’s never run on a dirt course before so I really don’t like the 7-2 price in a field this size. However, the local works are respectable and this is not the deepest group. If he can take to the surface, he will be in the mix. 

Race 9:

This is an above average allowance race which drew a field of eight, including a pair of graded stakes winners. The morning line favorite is Bendoog (#5), who is not one of the graded stakes winners in this field. He was second in the Grade 2 Suburban last year though, and he’s been close against some nice horses in allowance company. Bill Mott has yet to run a horse at this meet, but it appears he opted for this spot instead of the Challenger Stakes at Tampa. In fairness, that race drew two very nice horses with Skippylongstocking narrowly defeating Most Wanted. While that race was a Grade 3 contest, this race has a total purse that is $6K more. However, by dodging those graded stakes winners, I’m not sure Mott was planning on dealing with two other graded stakes winners. Disarm (#8) was the winner of the 2023 Matt Winn Stakes. He won his 2024 debut in allowance company, but then struggled to make an impact in some top quality races for older runners last year, He’ll start up his 2025 campaign here and he’ll be joined by Catching Freedom (#4), who was a close 4th in last year’s Kentucky Derby. He was the winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes here last season and he went on to take home the trophy in the Louisiana Derby. He was third in the Preakness and then 4th in the Ohio Derby before shutting it down for the year. He was a bit dull in the Mineshaft Stakes last month when making his first start since June. From a wagering standpoint,. I think both of those runners are going to take some money in this race. I think Catching Freedom will go off at odds closer to 2-1 and that should allow the odds for Bendoog to float up from his 7-5 morning line. I think Bendoog is the one to beat because I think he has a significant pace advantage over the other two runners. He should be in a perfect stalking spot, sitting just off Horace Mann (#1) and Classic Car Wash (#3) in the early stages. I don’t think Mott brought this six year old to get a race under his belt, otherwise, I think he would have just run at Tampa, which is much closer to his home base at Payson Park. This feels like an audition of the Oaklawn Handicap next month for him (and the other two notable runners). I think he passes this test today. Between Catching Freedom and Disarm, I think there’s a little more upside with Catching Freedom. He likely needed the race in the Mineshaft when making his first start of the year. I would have liked to have seen a better overall effort in that spot, but I’ll be a little more forgiving there. He’ll be the backup plan for me in this spot.

Race 10:

We’ll close out the card with a state bred $45K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. As this condition goes, this is a pretty soft group. Five first time starters are in the body of this field. My Sweet Angel (#10) drops in class and makes her third career start today. She’ll need to take a step forward to win this race, but both of her career races have been marred by trouble in the early stages. The top two finishers were much the best in that maiden allowance race. She continues to show positive signs in the AM. Nip It in the Bud (#2) has not been working as well in the mornings, but the Moquett barn continues to show up with live runner after live runner. She feels like the debuting runner that has the best shot with this group. Preseleys Turn (#1)has had many chances, but she likely needed her last race. She was making her first start in nine months that day and she appeared to be tiring late. She was much sharper in her second career start last year, so if she can do that again, she’ll be tough to deal with. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 79/378 (20.9%, $718.60, $1.90 ROI)

March 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 14/52 (26.9%, $121.60, $2.34 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)