There’s nine more races to close out the week at Oaklawn. We saw a few notable performances yesterday with Booth going gate to wire again when facing a nice field in the Grade 3 Whitmore. He’s another really nice sprinter for Steve Asmussen and it looks as though he’s starting to turn into the horse we thought he could be after his debut at Keeneland in 2023. A few races earlier on the card, the winner of the Grade 3 Gazelle last year, Where’s My Ring, turned in a huge effort in an allowance race, winning by over 12 lengths. The final time was legitimate, stopping the clock in 1:43:36. Male horses ran in first level allowance company in the nightcap, and that race was clocked at 1:45:76, over two seconds slower. The winner of that race, King Russell, typically runs Beyer figures hovering in the low to mid-80’s, so I think that effort from Where’s My Ring was likely good enough to earn a triple digit Beyer figure. I’m not sure she wants to tangle with Thorpedo Anna again, and that one is pointing to the Apple Blossom on this course next month. However, races like the Doubledogdare at Keeneland or the La Troienne at Churchill should definitely be on her radar now. There’s a few nice allowance races to look forward at the back of today’s card. First post this afternoon is set for 12:35 (CT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | DBL, PK5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 2,3,4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 3,5 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 8 | 4,8 | 1 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 5 | 9 | 9 | 12 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 4 | 4,9 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 8 | 7 | 4,7,8 | DBL | ||
| 9 | 10 | 10,13 | 11 |
Race 1:
The day begins with a $12,500 N2L claiming race for three year olds and up going one mile. 17 year old apprentice, Tyler Bacon won the first three races on the card yesterday and I think he’s in the driver’s seat in this race aboard Ice Again (#1). This Keen Ice colt was improving in his three prior starts at Zia Park. He shipped here and ran a solid to get third place at this level last time out. There’s not a lot of speed in this race, so the rail draw could be advantageous. He has enough tactical speed to be a little closer to the front end than he was last time. His two dirt races at two turns were by far his best two races. I think he’s the one to beat in this race. Humor Me Now (#2) has been stuck on the outside in his last three starts, so he finally gets a better post position for his second start off the layoff. He came back in a sprint race against $20K-$15K N2L claimers last time out when running with the waiver. He got moving late but left himself too much work to do. That’s been his Achilles Heel and I’m not sure the pace scenario is going to favor his closing style with this group. He has shown the ability to sit closer to the front end, especially when drawing closer to the rail. He’d be the backup for me in this spot.
Race 2:
Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles in this $50K maiden claiming race. I thought the effort from Razorcat (#3) was solid when facing $75K restricted maiden claimers here last month. He was making his first start in four months that day and he battled on the lead before giving way late. He clearly needed that race, but he did run a career top speed figure for that effort. He’s taking on older horses, so while he is dropping in class, it’s not as big of a drop as it might be otherwise. There’s not much speed to contend with here so he might start getting brave in a race where I think he is eligible to improve. Stoke the Fire (#4) makes his first start on dirt since his debut back in July of 2023 at Ellis. He’s been running on turf and synthetic since that, but looking at his pedigree, I’d think traditional dirt is going to be where he’ll have the most success. He’s been off since November, so this will be his first start in five months. He’s also making his first start for Ron Moquett after being under the care of Mark Casse in his last three tries. While his dam seemed destined to be a sprinter (Smoke Glacken out of a Gilded Time Mare), she was a multiple Grade 1 winner at two turns on the dirt, including a win in the Apple Blossom on this oval. The morning line favorite is Halfway Tempted (#2) who comes back to a two turn race after sprinting in his first start off the Asmussen claim. I don’t love that he’s moving up in class, but I do think he fits on figures. Steve Asmussen had a pair of winners yesterday as his barn continues to heat up at this meet.
Race 3:
Three year old fillies will go one mile in this $80K-$75K maiden claiming race. If you’re willing to overlook the dull effort from St. Albans Raid (#8), last time out, she makes a lot of sense in this race. She ran third behind a pair of next out winners in a restricted maiden claiming race here two starts back. Take Charge Milady came back to break her maiden and then beat the next out winner of the Honeybee Stakes, Quietside, in the Martha Washington Stakes. The winner of that race, Anomina, came back to clear the N1X allowance condition and ran a decent third in the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs yesterday. She moved up to take on maiden special weight types and I didn’t love the ride she got that day. Especially after breaking so sharply. She couldn’t keep pace with the others when the real running began, but I also feel she might have exerted too much energy when running in traffic. Princess Aliyah was third in that race and she came to score in maiden allowance company here last weekend. Francisco Arrieta has seven wins this weekend so far and he gets the return call on this filly. Frosted Miracle (#3) drops for Kenny McPeek after two dull maiden allowance races here. She took some money last time out but hopped in the air at the break and wound up in last place early on. She never was able to recover, finishing a distant 8th. The drop feels necessary, but I think with a sharper break, she could be closer to the pace in the early stages, thus keeping her more interested in the task at hand. Moon Over Choctaw (#5) is the morning line favorite, making her first start off the Phil D’Amato claim. D’Amato doesn’t get overly involved in the claiming game, but he did claim three straight next out winners in a row this past spring. That stat might keep this filly’s odds deflated though. Prior to that streak, he lost his previous 10 consecutive starts, and he’s currently on a three race losing streak with horses he’s sending out first off the claim. I don’t like the 5-2 (ML) price whatsoever, but I do think she could be in the mix when stretching out to two turns. I’d probably need closer to 5-1 to play her to win, but I’ll use her as a back up in the horizontal exotics.
Race 4:
Three year olds and up go six furlongs in this $25K N3L claiming race. I think Western Command (#8) is interesting while making his first start off the Steve Asmussen claim. He’s making his third start off the layoff today after closing to be second in a $12,500 beaten claiming race here last month. He’s put together two respectable figures and he’s shown that he can run fast races on the grass. He is capable of winning on dirt though and I think he’s eligible to take a step forward today. Erik Asmussen won three straight races yesterday, including a win in the Grade 3 Whitmore where he earned his first graded stakes triumph. He’ll get the call for his dad today. Kent Sweezey sends out Market Street (#4) after claiming him for $35K last out. I’m not crazy about the drop in class, but I do think it makes sense and it’s not as egregious as some of the other claim and drops we’ve seen at this meet. Despite struggling here, Sweezey has been on a roll at Gulfstream, winning 25% of his races there over the last six months. This is a horse that was only beaten three lengths in a N2X allowance race at Saratoga this summer and he’s only four years old. While I’m not sure that we’re going to see a full turnaround, I do think improvement is on the table. The morning line favorite is Julliard, who is looking for his first win in nearly 23 months. Both winscame on this oval and he has some of the better recent speed figures in this field. He’s the type that seems to have forgotten how to win though, which makes me want to avoid taking him at too short of a price.
Race 5:
On nine race cards, the 5th race ends the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 wagers and it also begins the Late Pick-5. $12,500 maiden claimers going 1 1/16 miles will be the race you’ll need to dissect to cash in any of these wagers. As per usual, Arkansas breds will run with a $20K claiming tag. Mr. Butch (#9) is the one I want out of this race. He’s dropping in class while making his third start off the layoff for Mike Maker today. He followed this same pattern last year, running his best race in the form cycle at two turns, which was the third start of his career. He caught a sloppy track while facing better that day. He ran respectable races at six furlongs in his first two starts of the year, but now he’ll be stretched out to two turns. I see this Outwork gelding having every opportunity to take the right kind of step forward when competing at this level. The backup for me in this spot would be Sir Exton (#12). After a really good race at this level where he just missed last time out, he’ll have to deal with the 12 hole today. Arrieta taking the mount is an upgrade, especially the way he’s been riding this week. However, he’ll have a lot of work to do. I’m not sure he’s good enough to overcome that, but I do think he has a better chance of winning than many of his rivals in this race.
Race 6:
Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this $12,500 N2Y claiming race. Horses that have not won twice in the last five months are eligible to compete in this spot. I think Class Code (#4) has a chance at a nice number in this race. She drew post 10 of 10 in a similar spot last time out and she slipped coming out of the gate and never was able to recover, finishing a distant 8th that day. Her figures from Hastings over the summer are compatible with this field though. She’s an 11 time winner from 48 starts and she’s another live runner on this card who is making their third start off the layoff. I’ll hold out hope for one more race that she can get things turned around. Baby Gundin (#9) was a winner with beaten $8K claimers here last time out and now she looks to be tough at this level today. She also has a decent career winning percentage (9-42), and she has a pair of much nicer races on this oval compared to the top pick. Her trainer, Ingrid Mason, doesn’t win a ton of races, but she has good numbers with her runners coming back off a win, winning 27% of the time (6-22) since the start of 2024.
Race 7:
The featured race today is an optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance race going one mile. This race drew an overflow field of 14, but the one horse they’re going to have to deal with is Just Steel (#1). This Justify colt didn’t win a ton of races, but he hung in there with some very good horses last year on the way to the Derby. He was sent to the front with a breakneck pace in the Derby and he didn’t have the cleanest trip when his stablemate took home the trophy in the Preakness. He went to the sidelines and resurfaced in a six furlong race at this level. They went very fast early and Ninja Warrior ran them all down late. We saw Val Brinkerhoff make a similar move with Where’s My Ring yesterday. That filly came off the layoff in a sprint race before stretching out to two turns in the second start back. Lukas is doing the same thing today. He gives Nik Juarez, who won the Virginia Derby yesterday aboard American Promise, the return call. I think he outclasses this field today. I’m looking for a horse that can come from off the pace as a backup in this spot. There’s a lot of speed signed on there are several stretching out to two turns from sprint races. Oviatt Class (#5) is an interesting prospect for Phil D’Amato. He was last seen on the track in October, running poorly in a 6 ½ furlong sprint at Santa Anita. Prior to that he was the last place finisher in the Grade 2 Gold Cup at Santa Anita back in May,. He was in good form before those two stumbling blocks. He has the ability to come from off the pace and his works are getting faster in the mornings. I prefer him underneath, but if this pace melts down, he’d be my choice to pick up the pieces.
Race 8:
Three year old fillies will go 1 1/16 miles in this optional $200K claiming/N2L allowance race. For me, I think the three shortest priced runners make a lot of sense in this race. I thought Kinzie Queen (#7) ran pretty well to just miss getting up over Legal Empress (#8) when they faced each other two weeks ago. She’s quietly putting together a nice string of races for Greg Compton. Assuming this field stays intact, I think Legal Empress will take a little more pressure on the front end when compared to last time out. She got caught behind runners along the rail that day, but a wider draw may work to her advantage in this spot. I was high on Legal Empress in her last two starts, picking her to pull off the upset in the Martha Washington two back. She had to settle for third that day and she came back to be second at this level last time out when carefully stalking the pace from her outside draw. She’ll be in a similar spot once, but I do think she should be more fit for this race. California Sunset (#4) comes to town from the Fair Grounds after a few strong efforts there. She was knocking on the door at this condition in Louisiana, so it’ll be interesting to see if her game will travel here. Her figures say she’s going to be right in the mix.
Race 9:
We’ll end the week with a state bred N1X allowance race going six furlongs. Like many of the state bred races at this meet, this race oversubscribed. 14 are entered, but only a maximum of 12 will race. If Touchdown Arkansas (#10) has another strong effort in his tank, they might be battling for the balance in this spot. He was really good when making his first start since debuting in the Rainbow Stakes here last spring. He came back and was an impressive winner in state bred maiden allowance company, looking no worse for wear afterwards. He’s going to be tough if he can do it again, but he will be facing winners for the first time. I do think he’s up to the challenge though. Al’s Romeo (#13) needs a defection to participate, but if he’s in, he’s going to be tough to deal with. He looks better this year than he did last year, perhaps because of a strong summer campaign. He just missed at this level and he fits here once again. Rocket Sanders (#11) is an interesting longshot consideration in this race. He is one that is moving up the class ladder. However, he’s third off the layoff and two of his last three tries were wins. He’ll need to do better, but I do think the ceiling is rising for this one.
2024-25 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 77/378 (20.4%, $693.20, $1.83 ROI)
March 2025 Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 12/52 (23.1%, $96.20, $1.85 ROI)
Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)
