Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 3/2/25 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll end the week of racing at Oaklawn with a 10 race Sunday program. The Nodouble Breeders’ Stakes for Arkansas breds is the featured race on this card today. We saw a sparkling performance from Haulin Ice in the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes yesterday, which is the companion stakes race to today’s feature for fillies and mare stakes. First post is set for 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a state bred starter allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. To be eligible for this race, a horse must have only started once in their career for a tag of any kind. I’m not going to try to beat Sulwe (#3), who is a standout in this spot. She was entered in the Downthedustyroad yesterday, but she wanted no part of Haulin Ice. After watching that race, her connections probably made the right call. She can win at six furlongs, but she’s better at two turns, which she’s getting back to today. She hit the front and was battling hard in the stretch against a better group last out, but interference at the top of the lane forced her to lose action, and finish 5th. She’s capable of better, and she’s especially desirable after showing some more tactical speed than usual. She’s not the most consistent mare, but I think her quality and class can carry her. Summorya (#6) is the backup for me in this spot, possibly offering some value. She makes her third start off the layoff and stretches out for the first time since a disastrous effort in the Natural State Breeders Stakes in May of 2023. She’s moving up in class and she’s not particularly fast, but she is likely going to be the lone speed in this spot. I don’t think it’s crazy to think that she could set a 49 and change half mile and then have something left for the stretch. 

Race 2: 

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this $12,500 N2L claiming race. Barring massive reversals in form, it feels like there’s only a few horses that have a reasonable shot of winning this race. The Asmussen barn has been heating up over the last few weeks and they’ll send out End of Innocence (#4). She was third in a similar spot last month, rebounding nicely from a dismal effort two starts ago. There’s really not much speed signed on for this race and she didn’t want to tussle with dueling runners last time out. Her only win came when going gate to wire at Churchill and that kind of trip should be on Keith Asmussen’s mind today. Spin the Breeze (#2) draws the rail, which isn’t ideal, but she’s a rebound candidate in her third start off the layoff for McLean Robertson. This barn had a winner here earlier in the week and Emmanuel Esquivel could also consider being aggressively minded in this one. If she can get back to her 2024 form here, she’ll be tough. On deeper tickets, My Kinda Trouble (#10) might be well spotted for her three year old debut. She was a winner last year in her second career start in a maiden allowance race at Prairie Meadows. She struggled in her next two starts and has been on the sidelines for six months now. This barn doesn’t have good numbers off the layoff, only going 5-73 with runners making their first start in 45 or more days. His last winner under those circumstances came in 2023 and all five of those horses had at least 200 days off before scoring. While she might need this race, this filly is taking on a suspect group of older runners. I wouldn’t be shocked to see her put up a quality effort. 

Race 3:

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles in this $50K N2L claiming race. I’m trying to figure out what to make of Rivalry (#2) in this race. He started his career for Brad Cox while owned and bred by Gary and Mary West. They sold him privately at the end of 2023 and he came back for Moquett with a strong effort here early in 2024, while running in allowance company. However, he went off form badly in his last two starts of the year. He’s been away for almost a full year and he’s been drilling some sharp times in his morning workouts. I don’t love that he’s running with a $50K tag, but he is six years old at this point. I think the smaller field and the class relief are going to be beneficial because I don’t see true competition for him to make the early lead. He feels like the most likely winner of this race. I’ll use Brave Blend (#4) as a backup. He’s shipping in from Southern California while making his first start for Sean Williams. He was claimed for $20K when breaking his maiden at Del Mar in November. He ran two competitive races on the turf in starter allowance company at Santa Anita. He’ll move back to the dirt, where he’ll try routing on this surface for the second time. He ran into Miramadhi in his first two turn dirt race, so I can forgive a dull effort there. 

Race 4:

We’ll try to crack the code for another restricted claiming race here. This is a $20K N3L claiming even going 1 1/16 miles. I’m interested in Ain’t That a Kick (#1) in this race. He was 4th, beaten less than two lengths at this level despite conceding a ton of ground to every other horse in the race. He was away slow and didn’t corner well going into the first turn. Martin Garcia had him well out into the center of the track. He was out of the picture until they hit the quarter pole and he came with a strong and wide bid. The chart caller called it 5-6 wide, but it looked more like 8-9 wide to me. He got up for 4th in a race that ended at the 1/16 pole. He had trouble against a better field two back. He came with another wide bid before flattening out late that day. When you draw a line through that race, he’s been slowly getting better in each start. The rail may work for him, but it could admittedly also wind up being a disaster. At 6-1 (ML) or better, I’d be willing to take a chance on him. Mighty Message (#3) is another runner that had some misfortune last time out. He went to his knees and spotted a better field several lengths at the break on Monday. He rushed up while four wide going into the first turn, but he came up empty, which could be expected. He was entered in this spot prior to that race being run, so perhaps the quick turnaround was a part of the plan. I’m willing to draw a line through the effort and when you do, you see two efforts prior to that which would make him competitive with this group. If he runs and he’s looking okay on the track, I’m going to include him on my tickets. Big Drinker (#10) finished just in front of Ain’t That a Kick at this level last time out. That was his best career race from a figure standpoint, so regression is a possibility that could be on the table. However, he drilled a sharp five furlong bullet here last week, so I’ll be in the camp that thinks he can run back to that effort here. I don’t want to take any shorter than his 5-2 morning line number, but I do think he’s a worthy inclusion on your tickets in this race. 

Race 5: 

Three year olds and up will travel six furlongs in a maiden/optional $75K claiming race for three year olds and up. Horses that either sold for less than $75K or were RNA at their latest sale are eligible to run in this race without the risk of being claimed. You have to wonder if today is the day for Simovic (#5). He’s dropping class for the first time in his career, however, because he was purchased as a yearling for $70K, he’s able to run in this race without being offered up for a claiming tag. He’s 0-11 with six second place finishes, all coming in open maiden special weight races. Four of the 11 winners from his maiden races went on to win in N1X allowance company in their next starts. Horses like Mullikin and Confidence Game, finished in front of him in maiden races, and they would go on to be graded stakes winners. This is not a bad field for this condition and I’m going to be hopeful that he stays at or above his 4-1 price based off an uncharacteristically dull effort last time around. I think he can stalk the front runners and outfinish them in the stretch. Nyquist Frequency (#6) draws the stall next door to the top pick while shipping in from Turfway and cutting back in distance. He looked like he wanted no part of the Tapeta last time around at Turfway. He was gelded since that effort and now he returns to dirt and running the shortest distance since his debut. I’m not sure this is going to be the best distance for him, but I do think he fits well with this group. Paint Baller (#3) is another runner that is cutting back in distance. He ran well when going a mile here at this level last time out. He cuts back to six furlongs, and that might be a tad too short. D. Wayne Lukas is having his best meet here in years, winning with 15% of his starters. This one is live here as well. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 opens with a beaten $8K claiming race for fillies and mares going one mile. The recent form for several of the runners in this race is lacking. Baby Gundin (#5) seems to be one of the ones that is somewhat maintaining respectable form. She was 4th on a sealed track when she tried coming with a four wide bid. That isn’t always the easiest trip here when the course is sealed. More importantly though, that race seemed to signal a return to better form after a pair of miserable efforts in the fall. Right Trappe (#9) finished last in the same race, but she does not run her best race on off-tracks. She has a poor record on this course, going only 1-17, but the mile distance is her best trip, winning seven of her nine career scores at this distance. She hits the bottom here at Oaklawn and is at her best when she’s involved early. While she hasn’t shown much early interest in her last two tries, perhaps the apprentice, Jose Gutierrez, can get her to the front before they bend into the first turn. Saranac Lake (#6) is the morning line favorite who is plummeting in class. Her last two efforts against better have been discouraging, losing by a combined 25 lengths. She had a nice two race run at Churchill this fall, but we haven’t seen efforts like that in any of her other dirt races. Despite the deep drop from $35K beaten claiming to $8K beaten claiming, she was claimed for $16K three back, which isn’t great, but it makes the drop a little more palatable. 

Race 7, The $150K Nodouble Breeders’ Stakes:

In the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes yesterday, we saw a horse coming out of open company, dominant fellow Arkansas breds. I suspect the the same fate is going to be true with Bohemian Bo (#1) in this race today. He was a gate to wire winning in an optional claiming/N2X race here two back and he finished second at that same level last time. No one in this field is quick enough to keep up with him early and I don’t think the ones coming from off the pace are going to be having much of an impact in the late stages of this one. If someone does get up in time, my money is going to be that Lochmoor (#3) is the one that can get up late. I think he’s looking forward to getting back to going two turns, however there are only two state bred stakes races that he qualifies for at this meet, so you take what you can get. His first two starts of 2025 have not been his best. He’s making his third start off the bench today and I do think this is where we’ll see him move forward. I just think he’s running into a very good horse today.

Race 8: 

Three year olds an up will dash six furlongs in a maiden special weight race that kicks off the last Pick-3 opportunity of the afternoon. This feels like an evenly matched field, so I do want to take some shots. I think Knicks Glory (#11) has a chance at a big number in this race. He was slow to start on debut at Keeneland when facing a strong field. He ran well in his second start to be 4th at Churchill, outrunning his 53-1 odds that day. He came here and has been overmatched in his two route races. The dam won four of her first five starts, all in one turn races at distances between six furlongs and one mile. Her foals to make it to the track haven’t been anything to write home about, but most of them have done their best work in one turn races. Frosted was capable at longer distances, but his win in the Met Mile at one turn always stood out to me. He gets 15% winners from his dirt sprinters. He’s listed at 20-1 and his rider Amin Castillo, has done little to get excited about. He has three North American wins in 220 starts in the last five years, but all three scores came on the NYRA circuit with longshots. This is a horse that could easily be completely under the radar, but I do think he fits at this distance. Grand Oracle (#7) has been working well over this oval for Ron Moquett. The dam was unraced and her first two starters to race haven’t done all that much. However, McKinzie gets 17% winners with his horses debuting in dirt sprints. They nominated this one for the Triple Crown Series before he ever raced. That doesn’t mean a ton, but it does tell me they think this one has shown enough in the mornings to think that he has some quality. Unless one of the debut runners comes up firing, there shouldn’t be as much pace pressure for Velociraptor (#5) today. He battled through a 21:3 first quarter and a 45:2 half mile last time, which is quite quick for this course over the winter. He was passed but held second as Hymn opened up on the front end. He’s second off the layoff for Mark Casse today and he figures to make his presence felt here as well. 

Race 9:

Seven three year olds will go 1 1/16 in this optional $200K claiming/N1X allowance race. Longshots Capo Luca (#4) and Lured Away (#5) are the two runners that entered with the hefty $200K price tag, but it’s hard to make a case for either of them. The same could be said for the big longshot, Bout Tree Fiddy (#6), who has been beaten by over 55 combined lengths in his last two starts at this level. McDude (#3), First Division (#7), and Landing Craft (#1), finished second, third, and fourth in a race at a similar condition on February 7th and all make sense, but I’ll roll the dice with Laurel shipper, Bestfriend Rocket (#2) as the top play. It appears that this condition was tweaked a bit to get him to run in this race. Normally, horses that have not won $24K in a race are eligible to run for the N1X condition without having to be risked for a claiming tag. That allows horses that have cleared allowance conditions at tracks like Tampa, Remington, and Horseshoe Indy, to name a few, a chance to run for the hefty purses here at Oaklawn. This race has been adjusted to allow horses that have not won $32K to run without the tag (which was not the case in the race at this condition for fillies and mares yesterday). Bestfriend Rocket was an emphatic N1X allowance winner at Laurel in the slop, earning $29K for that race, which under most N1X conditions here at Oaklawn, would require him to run for the N2X allowance condition, if they didn’t want to risk losing him via claim. He was transferred from Brittany Russell’s barn in Maryland to D. Wayne Lukas’s barn here last month. I don’t think that is a knock on Russell in any way, I just think there’s a limited number of opportunities for him at this point in Maryland. I would have to think that Frank Fletcher and D. Wayne Lukas had a little pull to get the racing office to card a race that fits him. He’s worked well four times in the morning for Lukas, so he looks loaded for his three year old debut. He;s at his best when stalking the pace, so I think the instructions for Nik Juarez will be to track Landing Craft, who has the rail and the best speed in the field. I’m very interested to see what this one does in this race, and while I think 6-1 might be a little high, if he’s the 4th choice in the wagering, which feels right after watching the other three finish in a cluster in a decent race last time, I’m going to be making a decent wager with him in the win pool. First Division (#7) will be the backup for me in this race. I’d like his chances more if there was more speed signed on. That was likely what did him in last time when he was third. Leparoux had to get him going early in order to avoid being trapped by Capo Luca. He hit the front with a four wide bid, but he idled, which allowed Authentic Gallop and McDude to grind by. McDude could have asked for a better trip along the rail, but was second best. The scenario that figures to get First Division into the Winner’s Circle is Bestfriend Rocket being a little extra keen and pushing the tempo with Landing Craft on the rail. That is a possibility here, which makes him more desirable than the other two runners. 

Race 10:

We’ll put a row on this week with a $12,500 maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. This  is one of those races where we’ll see horses bred in Arkansas running with a $20K claiming tag. Both Devils Fork (#3) and Chou Chou d’Aven (#12) were in contention to win at this level last month and both backed up late. While they both are getting better, that’s not the most encouraging sign with the two shortest priced runners on the morning line. Both are runners that I’ll be mostly trying to beat, but there are a few legs in this Pick-5 sequence where I’m going to be skinny, so they could be ones to use as savers in a race that feels spready. Dr. Storm (#11) might be the one finishing the fastest in this race. He’s making his third start off the layoff for Greg Compton and he’s taking a drop in class, which feels warranted at this point. He ran his best career race in his third start of his form cycle at Churchill this fall. He was claimed that day and now gets to that race for his new barn. He could be the one to move forward here. Is today the day for Rocket Night (#7)? He was claimed out of a race at this level in his last two starts, running credible efforts in both. Ronnie Cravens has decent numbers first off the claim and he’ll turn to Walter De La Cruz to get this one to trip out and finally get over the hump today. On deeper tickets, I’ll hope for a little upside with Charming Tiger (#9). Fernando Jara went to the front with him when breaking from the same post at this level last time out. He pressed the pace before fading to 5th in his first route on a traditional dirt course. Perhaps Jara learned something and this one should be a little more fit after that race. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 67/337 (19.9%, $625.80, $1.86 ROI)

March 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 2/11 (18.2%, $28.80, $2.62 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)