Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 3/21/25 – By Eric Solomon

We’re back at Oaklawn for another 10 race Friday card. Three year olds will sprint six furlongs in the optional $200K claiming/N1X allowance contest which will be the featured race today. This race could very well produce a few starters for the Bachelor Stakes here on May 2nd at the same six furlong trip. First post this afternoon is set for 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The week begins with a $12,500 N3L claiming contest for fillies and mares going six furlongs. Legally Charitable (#9) feels like the one to beat, making her second start of the meet, which is also her second start on a traditional dirt course. She ran competitive races with restricted claimers at Woodbine this summer and fall. Norman McKnight brought her south for the winter and she made her first start in a similar spot last month. She broke near the inside in a large field and she was hit hard coming out of the gate. That bump cost her early position as she typically likes to lay closer to the lead. She was gaining, but did have traffic issues late again when finishing 4th, behind a few of these runners. Both Collected Glory (#4) and Miesha (#6) are back in the same spot today. I think Legally Charitable has every right to improve while breaking from the outside stall today. I expect her to run a better race and turn the tables on her rivals. Spite Life (#1) may have some upside at longer odds in this race. The beaten $12,500 claiming race here on 2/16 was split into two divisions. The three runners above all competed in the second heat, which was a little slower than the first one. Spite Life ran in the faster race where she finished 6th, beaten 7 ½ lengths. The race favorite, who was also the winner of that race, came over and caused her to take up early on that day. She finished with some late interest, but could do no better than 6th. She came back in a beaten $8K claiming race when going a mile. She drew the 12 hole and was very wide in the early stages of that one. Even with the lousy trip. I’m not sure that two turn racing is for her. She cuts back to a sprint while making her first start off the Ingrid Mason claim. She was a nice winner on this oval three starts back when clearing the N2L condition and I think she’s better than what we’ve seen from her in her last two tries. In a field where consistency is an issue, I do feel the need to back up with Collected Glory. She was second against better last out and ran well to just miss at this level two starts back. At 7-5 on the morning line, compared to the 5-1 morning line figure on the top pick, I think the upside and value is definitely on my side. However, if that odds differential does shrink, she’d be more enticing. 

Race 2: 

The Early Pick-4 begins with an open $10K claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. For a lower-level claiming race, these ladies do know how to find the Winner’s Circle. Four of the ten runners were winners in their last starts and all ten of these horses have at least one win in their last three starts. The End Zone Athletics entry of Bertie’s Cause (#1) and Lady of Devon (#1A) seems pretty formidable in this race. Bertie’s Cause is the preferred runner. She wasn’t great here last out, but she’s the kind of horse that throws clunkers from time to time. What she hasn’t done is run two poor races in a row. All four wins have come on this course, her stablemate Lady of Devon could be pressing what already appears to be a lively pace. Torres usually rides the better runners from this barn, and he winds up on Lady of Devon. Arrieta has been on fire lately and he picks up the mount on this lightly raced six year old mare. He rode three winners for Abel Ramierez-Rodriguez last weekend, two of which came on a day where Torres wasn’t riding. This barn was cold going into the month, but with the help of Arrieta, business has picked up quickly. Look for him to start getting some better mounts from this barn as the meet rolls on. On her own, Lady of Devon is more of a B Line play for me. She was a winner with beaten $8K claimers last out when making her first start over this oval. She’s going to have to be faster to beat this group though. Backed by Gold (#9) scored with beaten $12,500 claimers in her last start, where she was claimed by Steve Asmussen. There figures to be a strong pace in this race, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this seven year old mare rolling late down the middle of the track. She got her first win and she has races that would be very competitive with this group in her not-so distant past. On deeper tickets, The Princess Says (#3) has some faster races than what she showed in starter allowance company at Sam Houston last time out. She was going seven furlongs that day, which appeared to be out of her range as she was getting tired in the later stages of that optional claiming/starter allowance test. Her races here last season weren’t very good, but she did get better when competing at lesser circuits. Her class will be tested here for sure, but I do expect improvement in her second start off the bench. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this state bred maiden special weight race. Doubledaddy Issues (#9) is the morning line favorite after just missing at this level in her debut last month. She was bet down to the favorite in that race and she had another snappy workout last weekend in preparation for this race today. It’s hard to get excited about taking even money on a horse coming from a barn that is 1-25 at the meet with a rider that has 13 in the money finishes in 70 starts here, but has yet to find the Winner’s Circle. I’ll use her, but I’m going to try a few three year old first time starters in front of her. Ministry’s Destiny (#1) debuts for Jaime Gonzalez and Starfish Stable. They sent out Stephanie Starfish earlier this meet to a debut win and she had a similar work tab to this Hamazing Destiny filly. There’s a strong 46:4 four furlong drill two weeks ago, which was the fastest of 48 workers that morning. She had a nice maintenance drill last week and might be thinking about trying to take this field gate to wire with her rail draw. Sky High Angel (#3) is a Cloud Computing first time starter for Melton Wilson that could be well-meant with this level. Hamazing Destiny has sired 10% winners in dirt sprint debuts. She’s the first foal to run from the mare, Millie’s and Angel. She was second in her debut, so perhaps her first foal will be ready to run as well. 

Race 4:

Earlier in the card we had a $12,500 N3L claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs and now here we have a $12,500 N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. Chica Arma (#3) feels like the one to take in this race. She’s dropping in class after two starts at this meet against better competition. She was flat two starts in a $35K N2L claiming race, but she was roughed up a bit at the break. Greg Compton continues to have a productive meet, and part of that is about finding good spots for his horses. The class relief should be welcomed in this spot and drawing closer to the rail should allow her to run the kind of race that she wants to run. My Kinda Trouble (#4) is an interesting backup play in this race. She’s a three year old taking on older foes in this spot. She made her first start since September at the beginning of the month, fading to third at this level. She battled hard before giving way at the top of the stretch. She should be more fit for this spot where I do think she’s a candidate to move forward. She was a little keen last time out, and I’m not sure that’s going to be the best way for her to score in this race. However, at longer odds, she has more upside than some of the other prices in this race. Hot Day (#12) faces winners for the first time after scoring in a $25K-$20K maiden claiming race here last out. She was making her second career start in that race after debuting at Los Alamitos in December. Dropping to this level feels apropos, but after two respectable efforts, I would have preferred to see run against slightly better competition. She’s still worth using in this spot, although I do think her price will be a little lower than I’d be willing to accept. 

Race 5: 

Fillies and mares will go one mile in this $12,500 maiden claiming race. Horses that were bred in the state of Arkansas are eligible to run with a $20K claiming tag, and as per usual, there’s a decent mix of open and state bred runners. The plan should be to put Love Me a Sunset (#1) on the front once again. She tried two turns for the first time last out with $25K-$20K maiden claimers. She went to the front and faded to finish 4th, about ten lengths behind the race winner. That was her best career effort, so there’s reason to believe that she can move forward in her second route, while also dropping to the bottom level for maidens here at Oaklawn. She has the rail and is facing a field of unproven rivals and horses that don’t seem to want to win. At similar odds, she’s more desirable than She’s a Reader (#8) or Open Flame (#9). Both fillies ran into Midway Vow, who was a dominant winner at this level in their last start. She’s a Reader was better than her rival that day, but I do think Open Flame  might still have a little more upside. I think She’s a Reader is going to have to deal with Love Me a Sunset in the early stages, and I think the top pick has a clear tactical advantage over her. Open Flame is more of a grinding closer, and while it’s hard to play those kinds of horses, horses near the front end typically don’t finish particularly well in races like this. She’s had modest tempos in her last two starts, so if they go faster in the early stages, that could give her an edge. On deeper tickets, Y City (#4) left herself a lot of work to do in her career debut. She couldn’t keep pace when they ran a sub 22 opening quarter on the front end. Medellin got into her early, but it took her a while to accelerate, as she lost position and fell back to last. She was moving late after steering clear of some traffic, getting into 6th. She’s sired by Flat Out out of a Citidancer mare, so I do believe a route race might suit her a little better. She has some low percentage connections, so I’d probably want better than her 15-1 morning line, but as a second time starter, hope isn’t completely lost just yet. 

Race 6: 

The back half of the card starts off just like the front half; with a $12,500 N3L claiming race at six furlongs, although this one is open to the boys. Let’s roll the dice with J J’s Ranger (#5) in this race. He was claimed from Chris Hartman in November and has finished off the board in his first three starts for Sarah Hamilton. After his most recent effort, he was moved into Ron Moquett’s barn. This is an upgrade at trainer, and while he might need a start under his belt for the new barn, there’s still reason to believe that he could contend with this group. After needing 11 starts to break his maiden, he won two times in a row at the fall Churchill meet, looking like a horse that was finally some things together. Perhaps the aggressive fall campaign where he ran five times in 58 days was another part of the reason his form dropped off. He was given two months off and was flat when he returned at the end of February. Some of these runners had nis number that day, but I think he should be closer to the pack today. Express Cruiser (#10) is one of the runners that beat the top pick last time out. He was eight lengths better than him, but four lengths behind the winner as the beaten favorite in that spot. He has taken a nice step forward since joining Tom Amoss’ barn. As a result I do respect him in this race. However, he’s listed at 7-5 on the morning line. If he runs one of his last two races, he’s probably going to find the Winner’s Circle here. However, I do fear that the bottom could drop out for him as those last two races were better than most of his previous tries. Rafael Bejarano has been riding lights out and he’s drawn within five wins of Cristian Torres for the leading jockey at the meet. He’ll get the return call in the irons today. On deeper tickets, Moon Over Egbert (#3) may have some upside. He’s making his third start on dirt and his third start off the layoff for Norman McKnight. A lot of his best work came in one turn races in Canada, winning two of nine times on the Tapeta course at Woodbine. He made his first start here at a mile, where he was a voided claim. He dropped a level in class and finished about four lengths behind Express Cruiser while coming with a four wide bid. He was more effective on synthetic when he was a little closer to the front in the early stages. He left himself too much work to do last time out after a speedy opening half was set. I don’t think the early pace battle will be as intense in this race, which should help his cause.

Race 7:

The Late Pick-4 begins with an optional $50K claiming/$50K starter allowance race. None of the ten runners entered with the tag in this race, so all ten horses have started for a $50K claiming tag at least one time and qualify under the N1X allowance condition. The morning line favorite is Northern Chill (#1) who was claimed two weeks ago after running a career top Beyer Speed Figure He’s been sharp at this meet and he definitely runs his best races on this oval. Front end speed is his game and the main threat to the lead is his stablemate, Dazzlemesilver (#3). I can’t imagine that Matt Shirer wants the two runners to duel themselves into submission, and Dazzlemesilver is capable of winning when stalking the pace. If speed is playing well, I’d likely have to upgrade Northern Chill, but I’m going to be skeptical that he’s going to be as effective while moving up in class and making his third start in five weeks. I’m going to side with Go West Go (#9) as the top pick in this spot. He ran two weeks ago in a solid N2L allowance race at 5 ½ furlongs. He drew the rail in that spot and he was in tight, or at the very least feeling uncomfortable as they made their way on to the turn. As a result, he backed up as the top two finishers were pulling away. He closed to get into 4th, but he was never a threat to win that race. He drops in class while still running in a protected spot and he also draws an outside post. He’s put together three respectable efforts on this course and I think he fits well in this race. Will Be (#8) has had some trouble staying healthy, but he’s a problem when he’s right/ His last two races have been on the turf and he hasn’t competed on the dirt in over a year. He ran well to be 4th, beaten less than a length at this level in his last start at Del Mar when going five furlongs on the grass last time out. I’m not sure what version of this horse is going to show up today, but if he’s looking good on the track, I’m okay with trying him in this spot. 

Race 8: 

This is another optional $50K claiming/$50K starter allowance race, but this one is for three year olds. To be eligible to run in this race without a claiming tag, a horse must have run at least one time for a $50K claiming and they must qualify for a N2X allowance race. It’s hard to play against One True Shance (#5) in this race. He’s made four starts and has won three of them. He broke his maiden on debut in a $50K maiden claiming race at Keeneland in the fall. Eddie Kenneally brought him to Churchill where he finished 3rd in a race at a similar condition to this. They were cooking early in that race, running a 21 flat opening quarter and a 44:2 half. He was much more comfortable in his two wins in New Orleans this winter, winning in starter allowance company and then clearing the N1X allowance condition in his most recent start. When writing about the Derby Prep races, I often comment that there’s not a ton of options for three year olds this time of year in the N2X allowance condition. As a result, there’s not a ton of races available for this gelding at the moment, because it’s pretty clear his connections don’t want to run him in a race with a claiming tag. Kenneally hasn’t frequented Hot Springs much this season, or at all in the last five years, having only 14 starters in that span (2 of which have come at this meet). He fits well in this spot, and is actually dropping in class and running for a larger purse while doing so. There’s a lot to like here and assuming the rail is not dead like it was early in the meet,  I think he’s an easy single in the late horizontal exotics. Piquant (#1) might be a reasonable backup in this spot, but he’s cross-entered in the $250K Animal Kingdom Stakes at Turfway tomorrow, and he might have a better chance of winning that race. Jacobson co-owns this runner and also has entered Haunted Flame (#9), which is owned by Jacobson Racing. If I had to guess, I’d say Haunted Flame runs in this spot and Piquant shoots his shot in Kentucky. I’ll keep Piquant on the C line in this race, but I’ll also add Towner Too (#4) as a backup. Like the favorite, he comes to town after a fair of respectable efforts at the Fair Grounds. He’s not the best gate horse, but he could be the one that is passing horses late in this spot. 

Race 9:

We’ll see some more three year olds in the feature today, which is an optional $200K claiming/N1X allowance race. This is a tricky race and there’s another short price that deserves a lot of respect in this spot. Dreaminblue (#2) has a pair of big efforts in maiden races at this meet, He ran a huge race two score two starts ago. He had to tap on the brakes at two points in that contest and he still pulled clear to win by over three lengths. The runner-up, Zat’s the One, came back to score in his next start. This colt took his shot in the Rebel and was a wide 9th in a 13 horse race where he was trying two turns for the second time. His sprint efforts are superior and if he runs back to his maiden race, I don’t see anyone that can beat him. He’s going to be on the A line for me, but I’m going to try Wildncrazynight (#9) with the chance to upset. The three year old sprint races here have been on the weaker side this year, but he did himself no favors when blowing the break as the favorite in the Ozark Stakes last month. He ran well to just miss to a next out stakes winner at Monmouth this summer. Even though there has been tougher N1X allowance races here for three year olds when compared to both stakes races this year, by dropping into allowance company, this gelded son of Midnight Lute will be eligible to race with Lasix for the first time. There isn’t much early speed signed on for this spot and he did go gate to wire when breaking his maiden at Delaware back in the October. He’s making his third start off the layoff and has every right to improve in this spot. I’m not sure he’s going to be good enough to beat the favorite, but I do think there’s a chance that the odds discrepancy (8-5 compared to 10-1) widens.

Race 10:

The day ends with an optional $80K claiming/money allowance race for four year olds and up sprinting six furlongs. This is a wide open event where there are several runners with a shot, especially because there are many that are capable of stepping up and running huge races on any given day. I landed on Red Flag (#11) as the top pick in this race. When you draw a line through his last two tries in stakes races, he has four straight wins on dirt, including a win on this course in January. He tried the Forego Stakes on the Tapeta at Turfway in his last start and he wasn’t as effective. Look for a better effort from this versatile gelding in his return to a traditional dirt race. Armando Hernandez has Devil’s Tower (#5) in peak form at this point in his seven year old season. He has been first or second in his last eight starts, winning five of them. He beat a nice starter allowance group here when he was last seen on the track at the end of January. It is worth noting that the red hot Francisco Arrieta has opted to ride the morning line favorite, Glengarry (#12) in this race. However, I think this one has a better chance. Both of these runners have finished in front of Ninja Warrior (#4) this season, however, I can forgive the effort in the mud when Red Flag beat him. He was making his first start since April that day. Devil’s Tower ran a monster race two back and he was a strong second. He got away from them and was up in time to clear the N2X condition here last month. He’s worth using as a backup in this race. Another one that could be a big price is Sir Wellington (#9). He’s making his second start off the layoff for McLean Robertson. Things have been picking up for this barn and this one is making his second start off a layoff. He ran some strong races here last season and he did record a triple digit Beyer Figure back in May. I do think he’ll be more competitive today and could certainly beef up the bottom half of the vertical exotics in this one. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 80/387 (20.7%, $716.00, $1.85 ROI)

March 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 15/61 (24.6%, $119.00, $1.95 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)